沪铜早间小幅高开，日内行情震荡走高，收盘上涨2.68%。金属市场多头氛围笼罩，铜市矿紧局面难 改，铜价重回十万关口上方，国内社会库存继续累积，但现货转为升水局面， 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，前期上行主要反映预期紧张，目前非美地区尚未兑现，预期 边际缓和但方向未改变，且一季度难言证伪，预计铜价保持宽幅波动。 （文华综合） 由于铜价重心高企，此前国内下游需求表现不佳，社会库存连连累积，现货维持大幅贴水局面，周初国 内社库累积势头维持，不过今日国内铜现货转为升水局面。据smm分析，有库存贸易商考虑电解铜现货 市场情况以及各自资金成本，挺价惜售。结合日内市场采购情绪较节前略微回升，促进现货成交，总体 现货升贴水上抬，由贴转升。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费延续承压走弱姿态，市场交易情绪低迷并未有明显改善。月初海外再传供应 扰动，据悉在智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿的数百名矿工举行罢工，因主要工 会与公司之间就新的劳动合同的谈判破裂，矿紧担忧继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching new highs and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, 2026, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF saw an intraday increase of 2.31%, currently up 1.81%, marking a new high since its listing [1]. - The ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the past five trading days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Zhongfu Industrial led with an increase of over 8%, followed by Hunan Silver and China Aluminum, both rising over 7% [3]. - Other notable performers include Shenhuo Co., West Superconducting, and Tianshan Aluminum, all showing gains of over 4% [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, have intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals [3]. - In the copper market, a strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile has exacerbated supply issues, contributing to a projected global copper market deficit of over 100,000 tons in 2026 [4]. - The aluminum market is also facing supply challenges, with LME aluminum prices surpassing $3,000, driven by concerns over the stability of electrolytic aluminum supply [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a continued bullish trend in the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved macroeconomic expectations [5]. - The consensus among institutions is that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to experience a bull market in 2026, supported by synchronized upward movements in monetary policy, demand, and supply [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to exhibit a "bull market" trend, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, reflecting investor confidence in future performance [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, 2026, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.31%, currently up 1.81%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][9]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [1][9]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. military action against Venezuela are expected to drive safe-haven investments in gold, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals [1][14]. - Venezuela's gold resource potential is estimated at 3,500 tons, with a projected production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the mid-range of global gold production [1][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - A strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile has disrupted supply, contributing to upward pressure on copper prices [2][15]. - The global copper market is projected to face a shortfall of over 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbated by ongoing U.S. copper tariffs and a price premium of $100 per ton for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][15]. Group 4: Aluminum Market Developments - LME aluminum prices have surged past $3,000, marking the highest level since 2022, driven by concerns over supply stability due to the indefinite shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique [5][16]. - Global demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by 150,000 to 187,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 2.5%, while supply remains tight due to potential power shortages [5][16]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to benefit from a confluence of factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved macroeconomic expectations, leading to a sustained bullish trend [5][17]. - Analysts from Zhongjin Company and Zhongtai Securities express optimism for a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector in 2026, driven by synchronized growth in monetary policy, demand, and supply [5][17]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its associated funds provide broad coverage across various non-ferrous metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][18].

Group 1: Macro Environment - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with internal disagreements among officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][19] - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3][19] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historically low levels, indicating persistent tightness in supply [4][20] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase [4][20] - November's net imports of refined copper fell by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories rose by 126,000 tons to 924,000 tons by December 31 [4][20] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Despite weak fundamentals and high inventory expectations, market sentiment remains optimistic due to expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve and strong performance in precious metals [5][21] - The copper price has reached new historical highs, but there is a significant divergence between weak fundamentals and optimistic market sentiment, leading to potential volatility [6][21] - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper is losing arbitrage opportunities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][21] Group 4: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain stable at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums have increased to $9.0 per wet ton [7][22] - January's refined nickel production is expected to rise by 35.8% month-on-month to 37,200 tons [7][22] - The stainless steel market shows a total inventory of 977,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.78% [8][23] Group 5: Aluminum Market - December aluminum prices showed a month-on-month increase, with aluminum oxide futures rising by 2.6% and electrolytic aluminum by 6.1% [9][25] - The average operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises decreased to 61.5% in December, indicating a seasonal slowdown [10][26] - Social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 64,000 tons to 660,000 tons in December [11][26] Group 6: Silicon and Polysilicon - December industrial silicon futures decreased by 2.96%, while polysilicon futures increased by 2.65% [12][27] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline by 3.2% month-on-month, while polysilicon production is projected to decrease by 3.5% [12][27] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons in December [13][28] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with a projected month-on-month decrease of 1.2% in January [14][29] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline in January, with a forecasted decrease in production [14][29] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a slowing down of the destocking process [15][29]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the commodities market outlook for 2026, specifically highlighting precious metals and industrial metals, with a bullish stance on gold and copper prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Forecast**: The target price for gold is set at $5,000 for 2026, with projections of $6,000 for 2027 and 2028. This represents a significant increase from the $1,700 price point when the bullish rating was issued in November 2022. Key drivers include central bank purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, and persistent inflation [2][3]. - **Impact on India**: As a major importer of gold, high prices will likely widen India's current account deficit. The government may respond by increasing import duties to curb inflows, which could also affect demand for wedding jewelry. However, high gold prices may enhance its role as a savings tool, increasing household wealth [2][3]. - **Oil Price Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to decline to the $60 range by the end of 2025 due to significant oversupply, with supply growth projected to outpace demand growth by three times. This could lead to a daily surplus of approximately 1.6 million barrels, impacting India's import bills and inflation positively [4]. - **CPI Impact**: A $10 drop in oil prices could reduce overall CPI by approximately 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, providing more policy space for the Reserve Bank of India [4]. - **Agricultural Commodities**: The changing international trade policies are expected to have varied impacts on key commodities like cotton, sugar, and wheat. Improved U.S.-China trade relations may negatively affect India's cotton exports as China may increase its purchases of U.S. cotton [5]. - **Copper Price Forecast**: Copper prices are anticipated to rise to $12,500 in the first half of the year, with an annual average slightly below $12,100. This is attributed to frequent issues in the mining sector and strong demand from the power and data center industries [7]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks are believed to have peaked, with improving conditions expected to enhance predictability in the market. Central bank activities will continue to influence market dynamics through interest rates, liquidity, and risk preferences [8]. Other Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The concept of the "Crocodile Cycle" is introduced, suggesting that while energy prices may decline, industrial and precious metals could see price increases, indicating a need to focus on sub-sector performance rather than the overall commodities market [8]. - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: While copper prices are expected to drive aluminum prices higher, the outlook for aluminum is tempered by new capacity coming online in Indonesia [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the commodities market outlook and its implications for various stakeholders.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but supply-demand tightness in 2026 is expected to support upward price movement [1] - The report highlights a significant drop in the operating rate of cable enterprises, reaching a six-year low in December 2025, which may suppress demand despite rising copper prices [1][3] - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - China's copper smelting capacity growth may be limited due to regulatory measures [1] - December 2025 saw a 7.5% year-on-year increase in China's electrolytic copper production, totaling 1.1781 million tons [3][64] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap [2][58] - **Demand**: - The operating rate of cable enterprises was reported at 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [3][76] - Air conditioning production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating potential demand growth [3][92] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 23.4% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7.4% [2][26] - As of December 31, 2025, global copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% from the previous week [2][26] Futures Market Summary - The active copper contract on SHFE saw a 15.9% decrease in open interest, indicating reduced trading activity [4][34] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 3.5%, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders [4][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies in the context of rising copper prices [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have raised concerns in the global commodity markets, particularly regarding oil and mineral supplies, as Venezuela is a significant supplier of key resources [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Market - Venezuela, holding the largest proven oil reserves globally, currently has an oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day, which is only 0.8% of global oil production [3]. - The U.S. airstrikes have heightened fears of a disruption in Venezuelan oil exports, which are currently around 600,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical levels [3]. - Analysts predict that the airstrikes will provide short-term support for oil prices, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain due to other factors influencing global oil supply and demand [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Mineral Resources - Venezuela is a key supplier of copper, accounting for 5% to 8% of global reserves, and also provides essential minerals like bauxite and uranium, which are critical for the energy and defense industries [3]. - The geopolitical tensions may lead to increased prices for these minerals due to supply concerns, with gold prices expected to remain strong as investors seek safe-haven assets [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The ongoing conflict may lead to a divergence in market performance, with energy and gold sectors potentially benefiting while other sectors may face challenges [5]. - The situation could also influence domestic markets, with analysts suggesting that the opening of the domestic futures market should be closely monitored for potential volatility driven by geopolitical developments [5][6].

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed significant market movements in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, leading to record price increases for gold and silver [3][4]. Copper Market - In late November to December 2025, copper prices surged, reaching historical highs of $12,960 per ton on the LME and over ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai [5]. - The copper supply faced constraints due to structural issues, including declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside natural disasters [5]. - Demand for copper remained robust, driven by the dual forces of new energy and AI, leading to a three-phase price increase throughout the year [5]. - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests maintaining a focus on copper until mid-year, then diversifying into both copper and aluminum investments [5]. Aluminum Market - In early November 2025, aluminum prices rose sharply, driven by a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of capital from copper to aluminum [9]. - The rise in aluminum prices was supported by a tight supply situation and a growing belief in aluminum's long-term potential as a substitute for copper [9]. - The outlook for aluminum remains bullish, with expectations of a widening global primary aluminum deficit by 2026 [9]. Alumina Market - In July 2025, alumina prices experienced a notable increase despite a backdrop of oversupply, influenced by delayed market responses and macroeconomic sentiment [11]. - The market dynamics indicated a potential for further price declines in 2026, driven by cost pressures and competitive market conditions [11]. Zinc Market - In the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc prices began to rise due to domestic supply shortages and a shift in market dynamics towards replenishing inventories [13]. - The zinc market is transitioning from a bear market to a structural bull market, with expectations of a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [13]. Gold Market - From January to April 2025, gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, reaching $3,500 per ounce [17]. - The latter part of 2025 saw gold prices peak at $4,381 per ounce, driven by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and economic instability [22]. Silver Market - In late 2025, silver prices broke through a significant resistance level, reaching $80 per ounce, supported by high trading volumes and low domestic inventories [23]. - The price dynamics were characterized by strong investor interest and significant deviations from equilibrium price levels [23].