智通财经APP获悉，雅居乐集团(03383)午后重挫14%，截至发稿，跌13.16%，报0.33港元，成交额 548.28万港元。 消息面上，据报道，雅居乐集团被新濠(中山)企业管理有限公司入禀高等法院提出清盘呈请。司法机构 网站显示，案件排期明年2月25日开庭聆讯。资料显示，新濠国际2021年6月公布与雅居乐合营，投得中 山地皮的土地使用权并进行发展项目，地价为40亿元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating that a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue into 2026, suggesting a sustained loose funding environment for the commodity market [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is expected to create a macro backdrop that supports the commodity market [3][9]. - Attention should be paid to the language used in future statements, particularly phrases like "increase macro control" and "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," which may indicate a stronger policy commitment and boost market sentiment [3][9]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Considerations - Key focus areas include the deficit rate and the scale of special bonds, which reflect the government's leverage efforts. If these exceed market expectations, it suggests a more aggressive push for economic growth, positively impacting demand for commodities like copper and stock index futures [10][11]. - The allocation of funds will be crucial, whether directed towards "new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects," or towards "large-scale equipment updates" and "consumer goods replacement," influencing demand trends in various commodity sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Real Estate - The extent of monetary policy adjustments will directly signal liquidity levels. Confirmation of a continued loose monetary stance could lower financing costs and enhance market risk appetite, potentially directing funds into the futures market [12][13]. - The real estate market's stabilization in 2026 is critical for the price trends of black commodities. The absence of specific mentions regarding the real estate market in this year's meeting raises questions about potential new policies to stabilize the sector [13]. Group 4: Market Expectations and New Opportunities - The market often reacts to new expectations, so the conference's potential establishment of quantifiable targets for consumption or investment growth, or emphasis on new investment areas like "AI+" or "green consumption," could inject new trading momentum into relevant sectors [5][12]. - The final outcomes will depend on the official communiqué released after the conference, with potential for increased price volatility during the meeting as market expectations evolve [5][12].

Industry Overview Upstream - Copper and zinc prices have rebounded recently; chemical product prices are slightly fluctuating; international crude oil prices are rising, while liquefied natural gas prices are oscillating downward [2] Midstream - The operating rates of chemical products have collectively declined; the coal consumption of power plants is at the median level in three years; the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have recently rebounded collectively; the number of domestic and international flights has decreased [4] Key Industry News Production Industry - Chinese official Ling Ji held video talks with German and European automobile industry associations, discussing China - Germany and China - Europe automobile industry and supply - chain cooperation, and hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case [1] - On December 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting private car owners and logistics enterprises [1] Service Industry - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators (as of December 8) Agriculture - The spot price of corn is 2238.6 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the spot price of eggs is 6.5 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%; the spot price of palm oil is 8726.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; the spot price of cotton is 15033.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.36%; the average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [36] Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of copper is 92243.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3.39%; the spot price of zinc is 23100.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 2.48%; the spot price of aluminum is 21933.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; the spot price of nickel is 120400.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.19%; another spot price of aluminum is 17300.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [36] Black Metals - The spot price of rebar is 3213.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%; the spot price of iron ore is 805.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the spot price of wire rod is 3395.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [36] Others - The spot price of glass is 13.8 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.72%; the spot price of natural rubber is 14843.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.88%; the China Plastic City price index is 766.0, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [36] Energy - The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.1 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.61%; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 63.8 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.20%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3874.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%; the coal price is 809.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [36] Chemicals - The spot price of PTA is 4687.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.32%; the spot price of polyethylene is 6845.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the spot price of urea is 1720.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the spot price of soda ash is 1205.7 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [36] Real Estate and Building Materials - The national cement price index is 135.4, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the building materials composite index is 115.5 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the national concrete price index is 90.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.00% [36]

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth projected at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, reflecting a slowdown from 2024's 3.3%[29] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% due to increased tariff disturbances and uncertainties[16] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. remains high at approximately 19%, contributing to ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty[20] Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with Q1 growth at 5.4%, driven by policy implementation and increased local government bond issuance[36] - In Q3 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, continuing the trend from Q2's 5.2% growth, influenced by reduced fixed asset investment and external tariff pressures[36] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 56.6% in Q3, indicating a strong domestic demand despite external challenges[41] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries[23] - The U.S. CPI is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2026, remaining above the target level, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[26] - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have slowed their rate-cutting pace due to resilient inflation and economic activity, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026[25] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks include potential overheating of risk asset prices, increased public finance pressures, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic stability[33] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies poses a significant risk to global economic recovery, with potential for further adjustments in trade routes and economic efficiency[20]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% today, with a trading volume of 791.80 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,263.947 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.64% compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Comprehensive sector with a gain of 3.93%, leading stock Dongyangguang increased by 9.99% [1] - Communication sector rose by 2.35%, with Hengxin Dongfang as the top performer, up by 20.04% [1] - Electronics sector increased by 1.64%, led by Purang Shares, which rose by 14.07% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - Non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 2.30%, with Minfa Aluminum down by 5.68% [2] - Steel sector fell by 1.87%, with Taigang Stainless Steel down by 3.95% [2] - Real estate sector declined by 1.56%, led by Haitai Development, which fell by 5.13% [2] Trading Data Summary - The trading data for various industries showed significant fluctuations, with the comprehensive sector seeing a transaction value of 50.29 billion yuan, an increase of 20.94% from the previous day [1] - The communication sector had a transaction value of 1,163.02 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.72% [1] - The electronics sector recorded a transaction value of 2,629.17 billion yuan, up by 9.12% [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.84% to 25,549.90 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.32%, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.12% [1][8]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a broad decline, with notable drops including Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Baidu, each falling over 2%, while Meituan and NetEase dropped more than 1% [1][8]. - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced pressure, with Zijin Mining declining over 4% [1][8]. - The real estate sector weakened significantly, highlighted by China Jinmao's drop of over 11% [1][8]. - New consumption concept stocks continued their downward trend, with Pop Mart falling over 4% [1][8]. Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate potential adjustments in interest rate policies by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, with hawkish comments from ECB Executive Schnabel influencing market sentiment towards anticipated rate hikes next year [2][9]. - Analysts noted that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, but there are indications that the threshold for further cuts may be raised [2][9]. Investment Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in China's credit market: the TMT sector shows strong quality, while state-owned enterprises are stable but have tight valuations, and the real estate sector remains challenging [5][11]. - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [5][11]. - Vanke's efforts to extend domestic bond maturities have led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [5][11].

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-12-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2249.53 | | 52 周最高 | 2506.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《有序推进现房销售试点 恢复居民购 房信心》 - 2025.12.03 房地产行业报告 （2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策"稳预期 ⚫ 投资要点 国务院近期强调"深入实施城市更新行动"，将其与稳楼市、消除 安全隐患结合，要求 2026 年底前完成地市级城市更新专项调查，划 定保护底线。同时，"好房子"建设标准进一 ...

A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 中国经济网北京12月9日讯 今日早盘两市震荡，截至午间收盘，上证指数报3918.83点，跌幅0.13%；深证成指报13341.62点，涨幅0.09%；创业板指报 3224.38点，涨幅1.07%。 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 浄流入（亿元） ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 元件 | 2.48 | 1355.05 | 580.34 | 77.90 | ਦੇਤੋ | 6 | | 2 | 通信服务 | 1.34 | 880.17 | 154.47 | 3.03 | 24 | 19 | | ന | 零售 | 1.30 | 2957.46 | 185.43 | -4.58 | 46 | 23 | | ব | 军工电子 | 1.04 | 1953.50 | 352.79 | -18.71 | 40 | 22 | | 5 | 其他电源设备 | 1.02 | 473.20 | 141.01 | 0.13 | 20 | ...

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]

据公告，绿地控股及控股子公司在2025年11月14日至12月2日新增诉讼1595件，累计金额61.63亿元。 中国经济网北京12月9日讯绿地控股（600606）(600606.SH)昨晚披露了关于公司及控股子公司新增诉讼 的公告。 具体情况来看，2025年11月14日至12月2日，公司及控股子公司作为被告的诉讼事项共有1512件，累计 金额55.59亿元。按诉讼类别划分：建设工程施工/采购诉讼纠纷634件，金额23.54亿元；房地产买卖/租 赁诉讼纠纷559件，金额2.13亿元；其他诉讼纠纷319件，金额29.92亿元。 鉴于部分案件尚未审理、判决、执行，其对公司后期利润的影响存在一定的不确定性，最终实际影响以 法院/仲裁生效判决/裁决为准。公司将依据有关会计准则的要求和实际情况进行相应的会计处理，并及 时按要求履行信息披露义务。 公告称，截至目前，公司所处的房地产及基建行业依旧处于调整周期，公司及控股子公司所涉及的相关 诉讼事项仍面临较大压力。对此，公司高度重视，把诉讼化解工作摆在重要位置，采取组建工作专班、 实施领导包案、强化督办考核、完善重大诉讼化解机制等措施，全力予以推进。公司将持续加大工作力 度，予 ...