Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various commodities. The resolution of military confrontations and the resumption of strait navigation are crucial for the market to return to normal [2]. - The performance of different commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Investors should pay close attention to geopolitical developments and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent oil prices rose sharply, and SC crude oil hit the daily limit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions are the main reasons. Geopolitical risk premiums will remain high until the military confrontation subsides and strait navigation resumes [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Multiple contracts of FU and LU followed the SC crude oil main contract and rose to the daily limit. The core logic has shifted to the geopolitical conflict. Supply - tightening expectations are strong, and future trends depend on the war situation and the duration of strait blockage [22]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the Middle - East situation, asphalt prices strengthened, but the increase was milder than that of crude oil and fuel oil. It is in a pattern of "strong cost, weak supply - demand", and will mainly follow cost fluctuations with limited upside space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. In the context of the spring plowing season, the inventory of production enterprises may decline, but the price increase may be limited. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a reduction in supply. In the short term, the market may experience pulse - like increases, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fell significantly. The short - term volatility increased, and the subsequent trend is determined by the war situation. Caution is advised when participating [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices declined. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased economic growth risks and dragged down copper prices. High inventories and uncertainties may cause copper prices to test the MA60 moving - average support [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The market is concerned about supply contractions in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and geopolitical guidance should be continuously monitored [5]. - **Zinc**: The dollar rebounded, and there were concerns about liquidity. The zinc market lacked upward momentum. High zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the inventory increased significantly. The overall rebound of Shanghai zinc is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply situation, with weak external and strong internal prices. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction, but the actual inventory - reduction rhythm is not smooth. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The market was actively traded. The nickel market lacks independent driving forces and follows external sentiment, gradually weakening [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices continued to decline. The short - term price may turn to oscillation. Attention should be paid to the MA60 moving - average. Geopolitical conflicts may affect the semiconductor output in East Asia [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures market was weak. The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in market risk preferences [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. The first round of price cuts may be implemented. The inventory decreased slightly. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price may be driven up by coking coal [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts. The total inventory decreased significantly, and there is a certain expectation of inventory replenishment. The price has improved, and geopolitical news should be monitored [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the cost of manganese silicon. The demand is slowly increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated upward. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International events have increased the cost of propylene. The market sentiment has improved, and the inventory reduction has accelerated. However, the high inventory in the polyolefin market poses a supply pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may increase [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Geopolitical conflicts have made PVC prices oscillate strongly. The industry inventory is high, and the demand is in the recovery stage. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is expected to operate in the bottom range [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The Middle - East situation affects PX and PTA through oil prices and supply concerns. The current PTA processing margin is under pressure, and the price and spread are affected by the Middle - East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of phased improvement in supply - demand in the second quarter. The Iranian situation has multiple positive effects on ethylene glycol, and the development of the situation should be monitored [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans oscillated strongly at a high level. Brazilian soybean production is expected to decrease. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased. The market shows an oil - strong - powder - weak state. Rapeseed meal has stabilized [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Domestic vegetable oils are generally strong, following energy prices. The short - term market is driven by the uncertainty of Middle - East energy. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [36]. - **Corn**: The prices at northern ports increased, and the inventory at north - south ports is at a low level. US corn oscillated strongly at the bottom. Dalian corn futures are expected to be strong in the short term [38]. - **Hogs**: The main contract of hogs continued to decline. The spot price fell, and the central government plans to purchase frozen pork. The pig price is at a historical low, and the inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures market adjusted weakly. The spot price adjusted weakly after the Spring Festival. The long - term egg inventory is in a downward trend, and long positions can be considered at low levels [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a high level. The short - term demand feedback is average. The supply of cotton in the future is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" period [41]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India and Thailand shows different trends. In China, the market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term sugar price faces certain pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price rose significantly. The post - festival demand in the northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [43]. - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe the market [44]. - **Pulp**: The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, but the demand is average. The mid - term trend is expected to oscillate within a range [45]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are actively raising prices. The short - term futures market may remain strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the Middle - East supply chain disruption and its spill - over effects [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell significantly, and overseas stock markets also declined. Geopolitical factors have increased market inflation concerns and raised the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the rotation of market styles [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed differentiation. The market may choose a direction after the policy tone of the Two Sessions. The strategy is to oscillate on a single side. The strategy of flattening the yield curve by shorting T and longing TL has a certain cost - performance ratio [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is necessary to use the "risk preference shock" framework for analysis. The current conflict has not shaken the underlying framework of the five major global market macro narratives, but has strengthened the trading priority of the long - term geopolitical narrative. The impact depth of this conflict on the market mainly depends on the disruption degree and duration of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and two core signals to determine the peak of the conflict intensity. There is a risk of the risk preference shock evolving into a liquidity crisis [2]. - The Middle East conflict has hit the global market risk preference, and the A - share market has also been affected. The geopolitical risk is high, and the market volatility has increased. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity, while medium - and long - term bonds show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various commodities are affected by the Middle East situation. For different varieties, corresponding investment strategies are proposed, such as focusing on structural long - making opportunities for lithium carbonate after the correction, and taking a long - position layout on dips for industrial silicon in the medium term [7][9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle East situation. The statements of Fed officials show uncertainty about interest rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation. The Iran situation is tense, with various events such as the destruction of US missile defense systems by Iran, and the consideration of military actions by some countries. The US Senate will vote on the "war powers resolution" [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar is supported by Trump's tough stance on the Iran issue and relevant news about the Fed Chairman nominee. The subsequent impact on the US dollar index and the USD/CNY exchange rate depends on whether the conflict is a blitzkrieg or a protracted war. Short - term export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has reduced market risk preference, causing the stock index to fall. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks is high, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market did not get a boost from the sharp decline in the A - share market. Short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. Affected by the Middle East situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a phased tightening of liquidity. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the correction and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [7]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen. The short - term price of industrial silicon is affected by the macro sentiment and its own weak fundamentals, but there is strong bottom support in the medium and long term. It is recommended to take a long - position layout on dips. The photovoltaic industry needs to wait for capacity clearance and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation may affect the import and export of the Middle East aluminum industry chain and increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [12][13]. - **Copper**: The copper price has weakened. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the copper price has fallen below the important support range. It is recommended that non - position holders wait and see or consider buying out - of - the - money call options, and industrial customers can consider replenishing inventory [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is weak in the short term due to liquidity issues and the overall pressure of the sector. It is expected to be strong in the medium term [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel have fallen. The supply - shortage logic has been broken, but the actual industrial impact remains to be seen. The demand is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and the inventory of stainless steel has accumulated recently [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price has dropped sharply and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is tight, and the demand has started to resume work [18][19]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate. The current supply - demand pattern is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [20]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans has risen, and the domestic market has oscillated. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. It is recommended to widen the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [21]. - **Oils**: The oil market is strong due to the geopolitical conflict. The international palm oil supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic oil supply is sufficient. It is expected that the oil price will remain strong in the short term [21][22][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Middle East conflict has led to concerns about the tightening of the Asian fuel oil supply, supporting the Singapore fuel oil market [25]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is driven by the cost of crude oil. The current terminal demand is low, and the supply is expected to increase. The price will follow the change of crude oil in the future [26]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals has fallen sharply due to the delay of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity pressure. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish stance on precious metals and be cautious about short - term adjustment risks. It is advisable to buy on dips and replenish positions step by step [28][29]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is close to the previous low, and the offset paper price is close to the previous high. The pulp inventory pressure is large, and the offset paper supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading for pulp in the short term and try a long - position strategy at low prices in the medium term. For offset paper, it is recommended to try a short - position strategy at high prices [30][31][32]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen. The cost support has been enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and attention should be paid to the refinery start - up changes and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [32][33]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The market is concerned about the supply from the Middle East, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation [33][35]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on methanol. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the conflict will affect the main methanol production areas, gas fields, and ports in Iran [35][36]. - **Plastic PP**: The prices of plastic and polypropylene have risen. The rise is driven by cost increase and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand expectation. It is necessary to be cautious about the market correction risk if the conflict eases [36][38][39]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is under pressure, and the synthetic rubber price is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The macro sentiment dominates, and the natural rubber price is expected to oscillate. The butadiene rubber cost is supported, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [39][44][45]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has an impact on the urea market, causing a "collapse of global supply" and an "explosion of domestic sentiment". It is expected to drive a price increase in the domestic market [47][48]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash may be affected by the expected overhaul, and the glass demand has not recovered yet. The supply return expectation and high inventory in the middle stream limit the price increase of glass [48][49]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by the cost and supply - demand. The cost is the dominant factor in the short term. The propane price has risen, and there is an expectation of production reduction in some olefin enterprises [49][50]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak. The market has expectations for infrastructure and real estate policies, but the fundamental pressure of the finished steel still exists. The short - term policy expectations support the market, but the weak fundamentals limit the price increase space [51]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a supply - demand game pattern. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is affected by seasonal restrictions and pessimistic expectations. The price has limited downward space but lacks upward drive [53]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke have risen. The risk assets may fluctuate more violently. The coking enterprises' operating rate is expected to rise slightly, and the coke may face a price cut risk in the future [53][54]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese have risen. The short - term sentiment is strong, but the black metal fundamentals are weak. The silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and the silicon iron has a better fundamental situation [54][55]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The hog futures price has continued to decline. The piglet market is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main hog futures contract [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to be tight this year. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to the international situation and the US foreign trade policy [58][59][60]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar futures price has basically stood above the 5300 mark. The fundamental situation is favorable, but the international raw sugar price is under pressure. The upward space is expected to be limited [61][62]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price has declined. The egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main egg futures contract [62]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price has risen. The market is affected by the fundamentals and delivery issues. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 10,000 [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price has risen slightly. The domestic jujube supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [71][72]. - **Logs**: The log futures price is approaching the previous high. The inventory has increased significantly, and the demand has not recovered significantly. It is recommended to shift from a long - position strategy to a range - trading strategy [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing differentiation, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. The overall situation is one of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising". In the US, consumer confidence in February showed consumption resilience, restricting the space for "recession trading". Factory orders in December declined in total but increased after excluding transportation, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Meanwhile, policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, and the Middle - East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption data is positive, and the real - estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, with a stable liquidity environment beneficial for short - term interest rates. Exports are stable, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active, which may support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. The real - estate market is still at a low level, but there are signs of a slight rebound in listing prices in first - and second - tier cities, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. The increase in special bond quotas is accompanied by a change in investment structure, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, a structural approach is still recommended, but it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over. If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and Strait passage are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and impacts global risk appetite, risk assets will be temporarily affected, with equities and industrial metals under pressure, while the risk - aversion premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - Consumer confidence: In February, the US Conference Board's consumer confidence rebounded, indicating that consumption resilience remains, restricting the space for "recession trading" [1]. - Industrial orders: In December, the total factory orders declined, but after excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy and geopolitical risks: Policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. The Middle - East situation is heating up due to the US's strengthened stance on Iran and Israeli air strikes on Iran, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - Policy and liquidity: Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, creating a stable liquidity environment that is beneficial for short - term interest rates [1]. - Consumption and exports: Exports are stable. Consumption during the Spring Festival was active, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, which can support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities [1]. - Real - estate market: Real - estate transactions are still at a low level, but listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have slightly rebounded, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. However, the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed [1]. - Infrastructure: The special bond quota has been increased, but the investment structure has changed. The physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. Asset Views - General principle: Asset allocation should be based on a structural approach, and it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over [1]. - Asset allocation suggestions: Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Market Performance of Various Sectors (Based on Tables) Financial Market - Stock index futures: Entered the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about the inflow of incremental funds and the credit risk of AI enterprises. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Stock index options: The options market is trading with the expectation of a medium - to long - term slow - rise. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Government bond futures: Institutions are cautious before the "Two Sessions", and the bond market has declined. The implementation of monetary policy should be monitored, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with fluctuations increasing. Geopolitical conflicts are driving up the risk - aversion premium of gold, and the delivery pressure of silver in March has eased [4]. Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle - East situation, and the opening of spot market cabins [4]. Black Building Materials - Steel products: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig - iron production [4]. - Iron ore: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have slightly decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic pig - iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [4]. - Other products: Coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to have volatile short - term trends. Different factors such as steel mill production, raw material costs, and inventory replenishment should be monitored [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals: Due to the US - Iran military conflict, there are concerns about supply disruptions. Most non - ferrous metals are expected to have a volatile and slightly upward short - term trend, but different factors such as supply disruptions, policy changes, and demand recovery should be considered for each metal [4]. - Other products: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products: Affected by the US - Iran situation, the prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Different factors such as OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and raw material prices should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and some other products also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [5]. Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the prices of most oil - price - sensitive agricultural products are expected to be volatile. Different factors such as trade policies, weather conditions, and production and demand should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Some products such as paper pulp, double - gum paper, and logs also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran remains. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout approach is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [1][2]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium. With no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, the supply - demand situation is in a state of both supply and demand being strong. The marginal influence is mostly about quotas, and there is little positive impact on quotas. The fundamentals of urea are expected to turn negative, so it is advisable to short at high prices [6][7]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend faces a crucial test. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level. The supply reduction is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is a domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices of both have risen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [16][17]. - For polyethylene, due to geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices have increased. The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [19][20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will be relieved in the first half of 2026 with no new capacity plans. The downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound. In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [21][23]. - For p - xylene (PX), the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short - term, PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil [25][26]. - For PTA, as the maintenance expectations decline, it is difficult for PTA to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, and there is room for valuation increase in the mid - term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high. Although the import is expected to decline in March, the port stockpiling pressure is still large. In the mid - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year. With the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import reduction and de - stocking. It is advisable to pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices [30][31]. 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 61.30 yuan/barrel, or 12.00%, to 572.30 yuan/barrel. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed a decrease in crude oil arrival inventory by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a decrease in gasoline commercial inventory by 0.42 million barrels to 94.58 million barrels, an increase in diesel commercial inventory by 9.22 million barrels to 111.99 million barrels, and an increase in total refined oil commercial inventory by 8.80 million barrels to 206.58 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term layout is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 254.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2557 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 351 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by 30 yuan/ton; in Hebei and Hubei by 20 yuan/ton; and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at 21 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1819 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: Short at high prices as the fundamentals are expected to turn negative [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The future trend faces a crucial test. The long side believes in limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved Chinese demand expectations; the short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - season demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, and that of semi - steel tires was 38.35%. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, and as of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 259 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (+11) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, with the calcium - carbide method at 81.7% (down 0.3% month - on - month) and the ethylene method at 83.2% (up 0.7% month - on - month). The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1% (up 17.1% month - on - month). The factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [14]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6620 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 6761 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 141 yuan/ton, narrowing by 70 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 8150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the active contract closing price was 8081 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The basis was 69 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 158 yuan/ton, up 17.63 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 218.3 yuan/ton, down 58.6 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The three - S weighted operating rate was 30.45%, up 2.72%, the PS operating rate was 49.40% (down 0.30%), the EPS operating rate was 12.18% (up 12.18%), and the ABS operating rate was 70.70% (up 1.80%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7200 yuan/ton, up 209 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The basis was - 125 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 57.97 million tons, an increase of 23.60 million tons, and the trader inventory was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, down 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 17 yuan/ton, widening by 97 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7223 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton, strengthening by 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, up 0.26%. The production enterprise inventory was 73.99 million tons, an increase of 34.87 million tons, the trader inventory was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, up 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 23 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton, and the PP5 - 9 spread was 54 yuan/ton, widening by 76 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Strategy View**: Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices as the supply pressure is relieved and the downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 20 US dollars to 1019 US dollars. The basis was 130 yuan (- 6), and the 5 - 7 spread was 50 yuan (+16). The Chinese PX load was 92.4% (up 0.4%), and the Asian load was 84.9% (up 1.2%). A 2.5 - million - tonne unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical's maintenance plan was postponed, while an overseas plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 295 US dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 US dollars (- 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (- 14) [25]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil as it will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 302 yuan to 5552 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 220 yuan to 5375 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (+5), and the 5 - 9 spread was 14 yuan (+40). The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). On February 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 259.7 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 131 yuan to 145 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 12 yuan to 412 yuan [28]. - **Strategy View**: Follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices in the mid - term as it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle and there is room for valuation increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 141 yuan to 3894 yuan. The basis was - 56 yuan (+13), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan (+59). The ethylene glycol load was 79% (up 2%), with the syngas - based production at 84% (up 4.1%) and the ethylene - based production at 76.2% (up 0.8%). Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in their operating status. The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 2 was 0.37 million tons. The port inventory was 100.2 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1451 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 832 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 750 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price rebounded to 670 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices due to the tense Iran situation and potential de - stocking [31].

Market Overview - Major European markets opened significantly lower, with the UK FTSE 100 index down nearly 3%, falling over 300 points, and the German DAX index down over 3.6%, dropping nearly 900 points [1][2] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index also declined by 3.70%, reflecting a broader market downturn [2] US Futures and Indices - US stock index futures are all down, with the Dow futures and S&P 500 futures both dropping over 1.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 2% [2] - The VIX fear index surged nearly 24%, indicating increased market volatility [3] Commodity Market - Precious metals experienced a decline, with spot gold dropping over 1% and spot silver falling over 6% [6] - In contrast, crude oil prices saw significant increases, with ICE Brent crude rising by 6.12% and NYMEX WTI crude increasing by 6.30% [7] Geopolitical Events - The Israeli Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on key Iranian government facilities in Tehran, reportedly involving around 100 fighter jets dropping over 250 bombs [9][10] - Iran claimed to have shot down 29 US and Israeli drones, indicating ongoing military tensions in the region [12][13] - The US State Department issued multiple evacuation orders for non-essential government personnel in several Middle Eastern countries, reflecting heightened security concerns [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, opening high and moving low, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The closing price dropped slightly by 1.55% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,557 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,394 yuan/ton, closing sharply up 11.03% at 2,557 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 99 yuan/ton. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the methanol premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the methanol futures price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 572.3 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 544.1 yuan/barrel, closing sharply up 12.00% at 572.3 yuan/barrel. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the crude oil premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 tons or 1.82%. Bonded area inventory was 11.81 tons, an increase of 6.52%; general trade inventory was 56.18 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [11]. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next cycle still has an obvious upward expectation [11]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, and the index was above the boom - bust line [12]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a small month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a small week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 2.65% [13]. - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 43 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 246 yuan/ton [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a small month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of February 25, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 535,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 81,100 tons, and a significant increase of 150,700 tons compared with 384,600 tons in the same period last year [14][15]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week increase of 0 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [16]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [16]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the average of 72,814 contracts in January, with an increase of 137.20%. As of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 300,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the average of 184,446 contracts in January, with an increase of 63.04% [17]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,835 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +460 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | 2,557 yuan/ton | +192 yuan/ton | - 77 yuan/ton | - 67 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 512.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 572.3 yuan/barrel | +44.5 yuan/barrel | - 59.5 yuan/barrel | - 45.6 yuan/barrel | [19] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides multiple charts including rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [20][22][24][28][30][32]. - **Methanol**: The report provides multiple charts including methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][35][37][39][41][43]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides multiple charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [46][48][50][52][54][56].

Group 1 - The short-term uncertainty in energy supply has increased due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, leading to a rise in Brent crude oil prices from $72.9 per barrel on February 27 to $77.7 per barrel on March 2 [1][6] - The cost and risk premium in global shipping have risen as tensions escalate in the Red Sea, with the Suez Canal being a critical trade route that handles over 15% of global goods trade and more than 30% of container traffic [2][7] - The global aviation and tourism industries are experiencing short-term structural impacts, with many flights canceled and airspace closed in the Middle East, affecting travel plans and leading to adjustments in airline and travel agency operations [3][8] Group 2 - Inflation risks in the US and Europe have increased, with uncertainty surrounding monetary policy paths as geopolitical risks from the Middle East lead to rising oil prices and increased supply chain costs [4][9] - Global risk aversion has risen, with precious metals gaining attention as safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns, while the safe-haven function of US Treasuries and the Japanese yen has diminished [5][11] - The focus on "global security deficits" has increased, with geopolitical risks prompting discussions on economic autonomy, trade diversification, and national defense security [6][13] Group 3 - Certain export sectors in China are facing short-term impacts, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, particularly in machinery and automotive exports to the Middle East [7][14] - The economic resilience of major economies will face objective testing, with the South Korean market showing significant adjustments due to its trade dependency and the impact of a rebounding US dollar on emerging market liquidity [8][15] - External uncertainties are increasing, highlighting the resilience of domestic demand in China as a key factor, with some Chinese assets benefiting from structural pricing advantages amid global narrative shifts [9][16]

资产配置 | 定期报告 美伊事件压制风偏，全球风险评价分化 20260302 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | | 地缘扰动和关税博弈强化中盘蓝筹涨价逻 | 2026-02-26 | | --- | --- | | 辑：20260222A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 海外地缘和降息节奏彰显国内风险评价下 | 2026-02-25 | | 行：20260222 多资产配置周报 | | | 前期热点波动上行，中盘蓝筹风险可控： | 2026-0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday, with significant increases in WTI, Brent, and SC2604 contracts. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the crude oil pricing mechanism and causing a rapid decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, while the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - For the polyester sector, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - For rubber, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - For methanol, the arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - For PVC, the supply in March will remain at a high level, and the downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday. WTI 4 - month contract rose by 4.21 dollars to 71.23 dollars/barrel, a 6.28% increase; Brent 5 - month contract rose by 4.87 dollars to 77.74 dollars/barrel, a 6.68% increase; SC2604 closed at 566.9 yuan/barrel, up 55.9 yuan/barrel, a 10.94% increase. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the pricing mechanism and causing a decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2605 rose 9% to 3186 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2605 rose 8.99% to 3757 yuan/ton. The supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2604 rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan/ton. The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5552 yuan/ton, up 5.75%; EG2605 closed at 3925 yuan/ton, up 6%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7836 yuan/ton, up 5.98%. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2605 rose 90 yuan/ton to 17245 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 105 yuan/ton to 13870 yuan/ton, and the main contract of butadiene rubber BR rose 835 yuan/ton to 13465 yuan/ton. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a 17% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January decreased by 22% year - on - year. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2328 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's north line was 1910 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was 259 - 263 dollars/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 320 - 325 dollars/ton. The arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn PP was 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of PP and PE were mostly negative. In March, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East - China PVC market was stable, the price in the North - China market rose slightly, and the price in the South - China market increased for some materials. In March, enterprise maintenance is rare, and production will remain at a high level. The downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising, and rigid - demand procurement is gradually released. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data monitoring of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes on March 2 and February 27, 2026, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - With the escalation of the Iran conflict, the war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region has been cancelled, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one - fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation, is almost at a standstill. As of Sunday, at least 150 ships, including oil tankers and LNG carriers, have anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters [12]. - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude - oil inventory is estimated to have increased last week, while the distillate and gasoline inventories may have declined. Analysts expect that as of the week ending February 27, the US crude - oil inventory increased by about 2.2 million barrels. The API will release the crude - oil inventory weekly report at 5:30 on Wednesday Beijing time, and the EIA will release it at 23:30 on Wednesday Beijing time [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [14][15][17][20][23][24][25]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [34][36][40][42][44][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including crude - oil internal - external spreads, crude - oil B - W spreads, fuel - oil high - low - sulfur spreads, fuel - oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene - glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural - rubber - 20 - number - rubber spread [49][51][53][55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production - profit and processing - fee charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [57][58]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst Award from Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [61]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy and Chemical Analyst Award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst title from Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022 [62]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won the "New - star Analyst" award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [63]. - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, propylene, pure - benzene, polyolefin, and PVC analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in engineering and an intermediate economist title. He has won the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2024. His team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the price fluctuations in the upstream energy and chemical industries, and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status, and price indicators in various industries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview Production Industry - On March 2nd, four departments jointly issued an opinion on promoting the high - quality development of science and technology insurance, proposing 20 policy measures in 6 aspects to build a science and technology insurance system [1] Service Industry - On March 2nd, three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. On March 1st, an oil tanker flying the Palau flag was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, and 4 crew members were injured. Iran's military officials had announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1] Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices are rising - Agriculture: Pork prices are falling - Chemical: PTA and urea prices are rising [1] Midstream - Chemical: PX and urea operating rates remain at a high level, and the polyester operating rate is seasonally rising - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants remains stable - Infrastructure: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [1] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are seasonally falling - Service: The number of domestic flights is falling [1] Key Industry Price Indicator Tracking - **Agriculture**: Corn price increased by 0.94% to 2297.1 yuan/ton, egg price increased by 0.80% to 6.3 yuan/kg, palm oil price decreased by 1.02% to 8740.0 yuan/ton, cotton price increased by 1.83% to 16638.5 yuan/ton, and pork average wholesale price decreased by 5.23% to 17.2 yuan/kg [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price increased by 1.82% to 102186.7 yuan/ton, zinc price increased by 0.11% to 24356.0 yuan/ton, aluminum price increased by 1.78% to 23636.7 yuan/ton, nickel price decreased by 0.67% to 141583.3 yuan/ton, and another aluminum price decreased by 0.15% to 16668.8 yuan/ton [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: Steel price decreased by 1.24% to 3130.8 yuan/ton, iron ore price decreased by 1.72% to 768.0 yuan/ton, and wire rod price decreased by 1.26% to 3325.0 yuan/ton [37] - **Non - metals**: Glass price increased by 0.75% to 13.4 yuan/square meter, natural rubber price increased by 4.55% to 17025.0 yuan/ton, and China Plastic City price index increased by 1.06% to 791.8 [37] - **Energy**: WTI crude oil price increased by 6.65% to 67.0 dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil price increased by 7.92% to 72.9 dollars/barrel, liquefied natural gas price increased by 1.34% to 3336.0 yuan/ton, and coal price decreased by 0.63% to 795.0 yuan/ton [37] - **Chemical**: PTA price increased by 3.99% to 5374.7 yuan/ton, polyethylene price increased by 0.61% to 6816.7 yuan/ton, urea price increased by 3.41% to 1856.3 yuan/ton, and soda ash price increased by 0.12% to 1202.9 yuan/ton [37] - **Real Estate**: Cement price index decreased by 0.85% to 128.8, building materials composite index decreased by 0.07% to 113.7, and concrete price index remained unchanged at 89.8 [37]