2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is running weakly, with prices breaking through support levels. In the short - term, after a smooth decline, attention should be paid to the rebound near technical support levels. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck, and demand support is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti - involution" related commodities improves. For polysilicon, there is a significant divergence between expectations and reality. The expected "anti - involution" is strong, but the downstream reality is weak. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at the 60,000 - yuan mark on the disk [16][18] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - The weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. The DMC output is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [14] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [14] Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [15] Cost - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [15] Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [15] 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [23] Polysilicon - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type reclaimed feedstock is 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51 yuan/kg, also remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 57,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,040 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is - 4,890 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of - 9.35% [26] 03. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. In November 2025, the output of industrial silicon is 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 672,900 tons or 15.39% [31] Main Production Areas Output - Not specifically summarized in text, but data on production in different regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in figures [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of December 12, 2025, the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber remain unchanged month - on - month, and the silica price also remains stable month - on - month. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [43][46] Visible Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [49] 04. Polysilicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. Under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon output in November is 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons; from January to November, the cumulative output of polysilicon is 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [54] Operating Rate and Scheduled Production - The operating rate of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber in November is 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in December will be 113,500 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month [57] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 298,800 tons; under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon inventory is 293,000 tons [60] Cost and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 41,790.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of polysilicon is 8,314.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63] Silicon Wafer - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of silicon wafers under the SMM caliber is 12.15GW, an increase month - on - month. The silicon wafer output in November is 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. From January to November, the silicon wafer output is 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The silicon wafer inventory is 23.3GW, a slight increase month - on - month. The predicted silicon wafer output in December is 45.7GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [66][69] Battery Cell - Under the SMM caliber, the battery cell output in November is 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in November is 56.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of battery cells is 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories is 9.07GW, an increase month - on - month. The predicted battery cell output in December is 48.72GW, a significant increase month - on - month [75][78] Component - Under the SMM caliber, the component output in November is 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The component operating rate in November is 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of components is 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. As of December 12, 2025, the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic components under the SMM caliber is 30.4GW, remaining stable month - on - month. The predicted component output in December is 39.99GW, a significant decrease compared with November [83][86] 05. Organic Silicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC output under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. The DMC output in November is 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative DMC output is 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58% [93] Price and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of organic silicon under the SMM statistics is reported at 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 1,709.38 yuan/ton [96] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC inventory under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 44,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [99] 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of December 12, 2025, the quotation of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 22,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 130 yuan/ton; the quotation of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 60%; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is 59.8% [104][107] Export - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [110]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the industrial silicon market is experiencing a rebound in spot prices, but futures prices are weakening due to diminishing fundamental drivers and declining costs [1] - As of early December, the spot price for industrial silicon 553 is between 9400-9500 yuan/ton, while 421 is between 9600-9700 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial silicon production capacity is expected to increase to 7.846 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 8.94%, but production is projected to decline by 13.13% to 4.0893 million tons [1] Group 2 - The supply of industrial silicon remains elastic, with short-term production entering a seasonal low [1] - The average production cost of industrial silicon has remained around 9100 yuan/ton since July, while spot prices have consistently exceeded this average cost [1] - The total number of industrial silicon furnaces is 796, with an operating rate of 29.90% [1] Group 3 - The demand side lacks incremental growth, with polysilicon production expected to be around 1.32 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 26.67% from 1.8 million tons in 2024 [2] - The expected demand for industrial silicon corresponding to polysilicon production is approximately 1.386 million tons, averaging about 115,500 tons per month [2] - The organic silicon industry is projected to reach a production capacity of 3.5 million tons in 2024, nearly doubling from 1.795 million tons in 2020 [3] Group 4 - Industrial silicon exports showed a high-to-low trend throughout the year, with cumulative exports from January to October at 606,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.22% [3] - As of early December, the social inventory of industrial silicon is 454,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.62% [3] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon has exceeded 600,000 tons, leading to a long destocking cycle estimated at 1.92 months [3] Group 5 - The industrial silicon market is characterized by significant supply elasticity, lack of demand growth, and weakening cost support, which provides space for price declines [4] - Although spot prices are currently stable, the futures market is showing a bearish trend based on these expectations [4] - Short-term industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak operating pattern [4]

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the price - holding situation of industrial silicon plants [1]. - For polysilicon, with the details of the platform company's equity announced, the disk is recommended to go long on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market** - Si2601: The closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1, 670 yuan from T - 5, and 1,040 yuan from T - 22. The trading volume was 252,510 lots, down 71,000 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 171,757 lots, down 13,514 lots from T - 1 [1]. - PS2601: The closing price was 55,915 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 116,207 lots, down 42,531 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 54,959 lots, down 13,915 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis and Price** - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +950 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from T - 1. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium (against N - type reinvestment) was - 3915 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from T - 1. The N - type reinvestment polysilicon price was 52300 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Profit** - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3019.5 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1. The profit of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 4131 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Other Products in the Industry** - Organic silicon: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The DMC enterprise profit was 1801 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The ADC12 price was 21500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - A new platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has 10 shareholders, 9 of which are silicon - material production enterprises. Among them, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s holding subsidiary holds 30.35% with a subscribed registered capital of 910.5 million yuan, and GCL Technology's subsidiary holds 16.79% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].