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有机硅“密谋减产”?工业硅日内狂飙6%
对冲研投· 2025-11-19 07:57
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in industrial silicon prices is attributed to a significant meeting among major organic silicon manufacturers, focusing on coordinated production cuts and price stabilization efforts in response to market challenges [4][5]. Market Dynamics - On November 19, industrial silicon futures rose by over 6%, reaching a peak price of 9545 yuan/ton, closing at 9390 yuan/ton, marking a 4.68% increase [2]. - The meeting held in Shanghai involved key players representing over 80% of the industry's total capacity, emphasizing the importance of collective action to address ongoing market difficulties [4]. Production and Supply - A production reduction plan was established during the meeting, set to take effect on December 1, with an estimated decrease in DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) production by approximately 0.8 million tons, which will impact industrial silicon consumption by about 0.44 million tons [4]. - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to drop below 400,000 tons in November, reflecting a 12% decrease compared to previous periods, primarily due to reduced output in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions [6][17]. Pricing Trends - The DMC guidance price was set between 13,000 and 13,200 yuan/ton, representing an increase of approximately 1,700 to 2,000 yuan/ton since November 12 [5]. - Other downstream product prices have also risen significantly, with 107 glue priced at 13,700 to 14,000 yuan/ton and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, indicating a broader price recovery across the sector [5]. Demand and Inventory - Demand for polysilicon is expected to decline, while the organic silicon sector anticipates a consistent reduction in production, leading to manageable inventory levels for manufacturers [7][16]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon across major regions was reported at 546,000 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the coordinated production cuts by organic silicon companies are a self-rescue measure in light of prolonged industry losses and supply-demand imbalances [5][14]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued price fluctuations influenced by the implementation of the production reduction plan and the current demand landscape [14][15].
新能源及有色金属日报:平台推进进度较缓,多晶硅盘面偏弱震荡运行-20251119
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:47
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the reduction in production in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon valuation is currently low, and if there is policy support, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both sides have weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8980 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 248,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,402 lots, a change of - 620 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9400 - 9500 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon at 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - The reported price of organic silicon DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 (0) yuan/ton. The guiding price of organic silicon DMC was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton in the past week compared to before the joint price - support on November 12. Other downstream product prices also rose, with the 107 glue price at 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, raw rubber price at 14,000 yuan/ton, and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in the past week [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts when the price is low. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 52,000 yuan/ton and closing at 52,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.67% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,091 (136,243 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 173,704 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly, with N - type material at 49.70 - 54.90 (0.00) yuan/kg and n - type granular silicon at 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.70 (a month - on - month change of 3.09%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.42GW (a month - on - month change of 5.14%), polysilicon weekly output at 26,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.74%), and silicon wafer output at 13.12GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.45%) [4]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.27 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.60 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline. The prices of battery cells and components remained stable [6]. - On November 17, Liu Hanyuan, the chairman of Tongwei Group, made a public statement on polysilicon capacity integration. The polysilicon capacity integration plan, known as "integration," is being promoted by upstream giants and industry associations. The plan is expected to establish a fund of about 70 billion yuan, using a "debt - assumption" method of leveraging 70 billion with 10 billion for acquisitions to achieve capacity control and clearance [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [8].
工业硅&多晶硅日评20251119:上方承压-20251119
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the market trading is light, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.10% to 8,980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: In the southwest production area, it has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces in late October, and the operating rate decreased significantly. In the north, the number of open furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production cut situation, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 increased by 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.85% to 52,210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease month - on - month to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market trading was light, with few new transactions. The downstream was highly resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position, and continuously monitor the implementation of the silicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1].
建信期货工业硅日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
区间整理:有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅-20251118
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 07:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side is tightening with rising costs, providing some support for silicon prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream buyers mainly making rigid purchases, limiting the upside space for silicon prices. It is expected that the short - term silicon price will remain in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [3] - For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The price of petroleum coke has risen slightly, while the prices of silica and electrodes have remained stable. As the southwest production area enters the flat - dry water period, the power cost has increased significantly. [3] - In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton. [38] 3.1.2 Supply - Sichuan has entered the flat - water period with higher electricity prices, and Yunnan has entered the dry - water period. Factories in these two regions have expanded their production suspension scope due to increased costs and no obvious upward drive for industrial silicon prices. The output in the northwest region also decreased slightly last week, and the overall supply shows a contracting trend. It is expected that the output in November will drop to less than 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%. [3] - On the week of November 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 6 compared with the previous week. [39] 3.1.3 Demand - The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, the organic silicon industry has a relatively consistent expectation of production reduction, and the silicon - aluminum alloy has no production increase or decrease plan with stable operation. [3] 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most silicon enterprises are in normal production. Due to the relatively low price, the silicon enterprises' willingness to ship is low, and the inventory of silicon enterprises continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - It is expected that the short - term silicon price will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro sentiment and the start - up situation of the supply side. [3] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week's polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons. As of November 13, the polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with September. In November, some manufacturers started to reduce production, and the monthly output may decline to about 120,000 tons. [69] 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year over - drafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The number of domestic bidding projects has decreased, and overseas demand has declined. The component side is under great pressure. With the increase in costs, there is an expectation of price increase for components, but the downstream acceptance is not high. Some component factories have reduced their start - up, and it is expected that the output this month will decline by about 2GW. [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 13, the total polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW. As of November 14, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,120 lots. [3] 3.2.4 Market Outlook - There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. Continued attention should be paid to the platform launch and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [3] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, China's DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the DMC output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously overhauled devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend. [101] 3.3.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of DMC was 25,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.87%; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.52%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. [108] 3.3.3 Market Outlook - The industry has reached a consensus on production reduction, and the current inventory pressure is not large, so the price has increased. Future attention should be paid to the results of industry meeting consultations. [108] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - On the week of November 13, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. [116] 3.4.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of ADC12 was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%; the average price of A356 was 22,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. [119] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 13, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 546,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. As of November 14, the number of registered warehouse receipts on the exchange was 45,345 lots, equivalent to 226,700 tons of spot, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decrease. [130]
上海大陆期货多晶硅
大陆期货· 2025-11-18 07:12
Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern. The market is influenced by emotions, and the main 01 contract should be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset, with a key support at 51,200 [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Net Short - Position Dragon and Tiger List - Top 10 futures companies in net short positions include Yong'an Futures (net short volume: 4,620, increase: 1,726), Minshang Futures (net short volume: 2,974, increase: 247), etc [3] Market Trends - On November 12, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Jinko Solar issued statements to refute rumors. The average transaction price of polysilicon remained flat this week, and the spot price is likely to oscillate between 48,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. The inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides [3] Market Sentiment - After the industry association refuted rumors, the market sentiment was repaired. The polysilicon market showed a V - shaped rebound. The demand side provides support, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictory changes [4] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon has a chance to reverse under the support of cost and reduced supply. The main 01 contract should adopt a low - buying strategy, with a key support at 8,950 [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Net Short - Position Dragon and Tiger List - Top 10 futures companies in net short positions include Guotai Junan Futures (net short volume: 18,072, increase: 4,156), Ban Yu Jing Tan (net short volume: 16,232, increase: 373), etc [7] Market Trends - In November, the supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The "anti - involution" policy and energy - consumption new rules are conducive to the price increase of industrial silicon, but the decline in downstream demand may restrict the increase range. The market is waiting for the progress of industry conferences [7] Market Sentiment - The price of industrial silicon is under the pressure of high inventory and supported by cost. If the policy can continue to exert force, the price is expected to rise [8] Group 3: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the adjustment, iron ore still has the will to rise. The main 01 contract should be treated with a long - position mindset after stabilizing, with a key support at 760 [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - On November 11, the trading volume of iron ore decreased. The iron - water output increased slightly. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production, which may affect the global iron - ore market. Some regions launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses. Traditional off - season steel - mill production cuts may relieve inventory pressure [11][12] Market Sentiment - The main 01 contract of iron ore has stabilized at a low level after repeatedly verifying the key support of 760. The supply - demand pattern is expected to return to a tight balance, and the price has the potential to rise [12]
工业硅数据日报-20251118
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 07:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side: As the southwest region enters the dry season, many furnaces are shut down, leading to a decline in the national production schedule in November [4]. - The demand side: The dry - season in the southwest region causes a decline in the polysilicon production schedule in November, while the silicone production schedule increases month - on - month in November, fluctuating around 200,000 tons per month [4]. - The inventory side: The visible inventory fluctuates, and the balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon decrease, and inventory fluctuates. In the short term, the silicon price may operate in the range of 8,200 - 9,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI2512 closed at 9,095 with a 0.22% increase, SI2601 at 9,080 with a 0.11% increase, SI2602 at 9,055 with a 0.11% increase, SI2603 at 9,045 with a 0.06% increase, and SI2604 at 9,040 with a 0.22% decrease [4]. - **Contract Positions**: SI2512 had a position of 27,515, SI2601 had 251,549, SI2602 had 45,536, SI2603 had 18,433, and SI2604 had 10,071 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions and Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygen - blowing) was priced at 9,350, 553 (oxygen - blowing) at 9,500, 421 at 9,750, 441 at 9,700, and 3303 at 10,500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 10,000 and 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,400. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9,800. In Kunming, 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,600 and 421 was 10,000. In Sichuan, 421 was 9,800 [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 12,750 (up 500), 107 - rubber was 12,250, polysilicon (dense material per kg) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,550 (down 100) [4]. Price Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: SI2512 - SI2601 spread was 15, SI2601 - SI2602 spread was 25 (up 10) [4]. - **Spot Spreads**: 421 spot - 553 oxygen - blowing spot spread was 250, and the basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 420 (down 60) [4]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Warehouse Information**: There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses with different storage capacities (in ten thousand tons) and premium/discount standards. The total warehouse capacity was 27.55 tons [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36,414 to 35,475, a decrease of 939 [4].
新能源及有色金属日报:消费表现一般,多晶硅工业硅盘面宽幅震荡-20251118
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, total inventory has decreased, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand have both weakened, the inventory pressure is large, and the consumption performance is average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the influence of anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9025 yuan/ton and closed at 9080 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 251,549 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 44,022 lots, a change of - 1323 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangzhou decreased more actively, and the overall social inventory decreased [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream monomer manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price of silicone products such as DMC and intended to jointly reduce production, but the implementation of production cuts was still to be discussed [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and go long on the dry - season contracts on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 54,060 yuan/ton and closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.57% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,246 lots (145,191 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 249,758 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type polysilicon was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a change of 3.09% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42 GW, a change of 5.14% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a change of - 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12 GW, a change of - 2.45% month - on - month [6]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region is expected to decline significantly [6]. Strategy - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated weakly on the day. The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The consumption performance was average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to operate in the short - term range. The December contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption of production in the northwest and shutdown in the southwest, changes in the start - up of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [5].
有机硅需求降温,工业硅震荡走弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:44
工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 有机硅需求降温,工业硅震荡走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅向下调整,主因国内宏观政策缺乏新的指引, 有机硅企业企业联合减产30%的消息打压短期需求端的表 现。供应来看,新疆地区开工率升至85%,云南地区开工 率逐步下滑,内蒙和甘肃未能产量释放有限,供应端边际 有所收敛;从需求侧来看,多晶硅大厂价格暂稳但市场情 绪走弱,关注产 ...
工业硅&多晶硅日评20251117:上方承压-20251117
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].