1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The industrial silicon market continues to oscillate at a low level. Due to the impact of the dry - season production cuts, industrial silicon prices are expected to rise, but excessive chasing of long positions is not advisable. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main contract position is 144,190 lots, down 18,484 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,756 lots, down 2,237 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 51,197 lots, up 343 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 385 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the DMC spot price is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 830 yuan/ton [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.52%, down 0.07%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2]. b) Industry News - South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding plans to acquire a 65% stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory to expand its photovoltaic silicon wafer business. The acquisition target is a 2.7GW silicon wafer factory expected to be completed by the end of October [2]. - Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon. The spot price of industrial silicon has mainly declined this week. Affected by the dry season, there are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region of industrial silicon, and some enterprises are considering production cuts [2]. c) Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: The northwest region has an electricity price advantage, with stable factory operations. The southwest region has production - cut expectations due to the dry season, and some enterprises are under pressure from profit losses [2]. - **Demand Side**: The three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon. The organic silicon market is declining, the polysilicon industry has concerns about policy implementation, and the aluminum alloy industry has stable operations but general demand [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces pressure [2].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The supply side of industrial silicon is seeing continuous production increases as large northwest manufacturers resume production, while on the demand side, polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected due to capacity resumption in Qinghai and new capacity ramping up in other regions, and the production schedule for organic silicon in October is basically stable. Overall, the fundamentals of industrial silicon show a dual increase in supply and demand, and silicon prices may fluctuate. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - For different contracts (SI2510 - SI2602), the closing prices range from 8490 - 8905, with price declines of -1.87% - -2.36%. The持仓量 varies from 21310 - 162674. [1] Spot Market - In the spot market, different grades of industrial silicon have different prices in various regions. For example, in the East China region, the price of 553 (non - oxygenated) is 9300, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9400, 421 is 9700, etc. [1] Price Difference - The price difference between different contracts and different grades of silicon shows various changes. For example, si2510 - si2511 is -30 with a change of -55, and the price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passed spot is 300 with a change of 50. [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses, with different storage capacities (ranging from 0.15 - 2 million tons), different premium and discount standards (from -800 - 0), and different changes in warehouse receipts. For example, the warehouse receipt of Jianfa Tianjin Binhai decreased by 41, while that of Jianfeng Supply Chain increased by 96. [1] Industry News - The environmental impact assessment public participation first - time information announcement of the 90,000 - ton organic silicon product project of Jiangxi Fuxin Organic Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. was released on the Jiujiang government website. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current lithium salt market shows strong supply and demand. After the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. The follow - up arrangements of Yichun lithium mica mines are yet to be clarified, and international macro factors may disrupt the market. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate [2][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part I: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market has strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. It is expected to fluctuate and weaken. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000 [15]. - For industrial silicon 11, the demand - side reduction expectation is increasing, but there is still support below the price. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Currently, it can be considered for long - position allocation within the range. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300 [15]. - For polysilicon 11, there are rumors about capacity control policies. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Short - sellers should temporarily exit, and aggressive investors can consider going long at low prices. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [15]. - There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [15]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,680, with a daily increase of 0.55%, trading volume of 270,327, and an open interest of 192,931 (a decrease of 14,532 compared to the previous day), and 35,180 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,520, with a daily decrease of 3.24%, trading volume of 287,277, and an open interest of 162,674 (a decrease of 3,048 compared to the previous day), and 51,197 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 49,990, with a daily increase of 2.55%, trading volume of 297,703, and an open interest of 81,388 (a decrease of 6,277 compared to the previous day), and 7,950 warehouse receipts [16]. Part II: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from the previous week, reaching a new weekly high. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The weekly apparent demand for lithium carbonate was 21,647 tons, remaining at a recent high [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The report does not provide detailed downstream situation information other than the demand data mentioned above [2]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The southwest region will enter the dry season in November, and production reduction plans may be gradually initiated at the end of October, but large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand performance is acceptable, with the output of the polysilicon segment continuing to increase. However, considering the industry's "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan, the demand has great uncertainty. On Tuesday, there were rumors of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry, increasing concerns about future demand for industrial silicon [6]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises' production enthusiasm is high. In October, the polysilicon output will exceed expectations. However, terminal demand is weak. As of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a weekly increase of 11,700 tons [8][9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream is gradually reducing production. There are expectations of capacity control policies, which may affect the market [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations and supply - side start - up conditions [3]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level range - bound trading due to the game between policy - favorable expectations and weak fundamentals. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1产业链价格回顾 - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract was 8,685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from September 30. Most spot prices remained unchanged, with only the price of the oxygen - free 553 at Tianjin Port down 0.53% [12]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on October 10, 2025, was 48,965 yuan/ton, down 4.66% from September 30. Spot prices of various polysilicon types remained unchanged [12]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were generally stable, with only minor price changes in some products [12]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ADC12 average price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the A356 average price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [12]. 3.2开炉增加，供给持续增量 - **Cost and Profit of Industrial Silicon**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment and increased demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The power cost in the southwest production area will gradually increase as it transitions from the wet season to the dry season [3]. - **Supply of Industrial Silicon**: In October, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning to the dry season, leading to increased costs and production cuts by some enterprises. In contrast, small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material stockpiling, and the start - up rate in Xinjiang has increased. Overall, the start - up rate has increased [3]. - **Demand for Industrial Silicon**: The production of polysilicon in October may still have a slight increase, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, some organic silicon enterprises have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate has declined. Overall, the demand for industrial silicon remains weak [3]. - **Inventory of Industrial Silicon**: The futures warehouse receipts have fluctuated slightly. After the holiday, downstream enterprises have successively inquired, but some manufacturers' orders have not been delivered, and factory inventories have accumulated [3]. 3.3光伏产业运行平稳，关注终端需求 - **Polysilicon**: In September, the polysilicon output was 130,000 tons, basically the same as in August. The cumulative output from January to September was 941,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. It is expected that the output in October will maintain an incremental trend, with a month - on - month increase of about 3,000 - 5,000 tons. As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78 GW. As of October 10, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,140 lots [3]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The market was sluggish during the holiday, with little market trading [80]. - **Battery Cell**: The price was stable [87]. - **Component**: The component installation did not meet expectations, and the price was under pressure. The lifting of the component export tax - refund policy is still undetermined. If the policy is implemented, it may stimulate component export demand in the next few months. The pre - implementation inventory rush of India's "double - anti" policy will also support exports to some extent. Domestically, the front - loaded installation in the first half of the year has overdrawn some demand in the second half, resulting in a decrease in domestic tender and bidding projects, lower - than - expected centralized installation, and a decline in distributed trading volume. The component segment is under great pressure, and there is no obvious restocking action for upstream demand [3]. 3.4支撑有限，有机硅价格大稳小动 - **Start - up Rate**: In September, the start - up rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, a monomer factory has a maintenance plan, and the start - up rate may decline slightly [108]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Due to factory maintenance, the supply has tightened periodically, and the price has increased [114]. 3.5铝合金开工回升 - **Start - up Rate**: In the week of October 9, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points [122]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average ADC12 price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the average A356 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [125]. 3.6库存维持高位 - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons. As of October 10, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,281 lots, equivalent to 251,400 tons of spot [139]. - **Polysilicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's spot price shows weak stability, with a current weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [1][2]. - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 2.18% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 162,674 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,197 lots, an increase of 343 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was weakly stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of some silicon in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The Fuanda project in Angola, invested by Jiangsu Beiyang Group, has a total investment of 20 million US dollars in Phase I, covering an area of 16 hectares, with two submerged arc furnaces built and an annual output of 15,000 tons of industrial silicon. It was fully put into operation in 2025. Phase II plans to invest 100 million US dollars, covering an area of 125 hectares, with the construction of a 220KV substation and 10 submerged arc furnaces, and an expected annual output of 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials. The construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). Most manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, with some planning to enter maintenance. The market supply is expected to be in a short - term strong and volatile state [2]. Strategy - Spot price is weakly stable, and the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak overall commodity sentiment. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and buy on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures showed a strong trend, opening at 48,695 yuan/ton and closing at 49,990 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 81,388 lots (87,665 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 297,703 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.19%, the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.89% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece (unchanged), N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece (unchanged), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece) [5]. - According to SMM data, the polysilicon price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market transactions were light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and the market was significantly resistant to high - priced resources. Polysilicon manufacturers had different quotes, and the market was waiting for the polysilicon industry meeting in October. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged); PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged); TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W (unchanged). HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. It is necessary to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward price transmission of spot prices. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is expected that the 11 - month contract will fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

2025 年 10 月 15 日 工业硅：弱势供需格局 多晶硅：本周会议陆续召开，盘面看涨对待 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,520 | -285 | -90 | 5 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 287,277 | 45,724 | -105,425 | -84,528 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 162,674 | -3,048 | -44,303 | -114,631 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 49,990 | 1,250 | -1,290 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 297,703 | 50,727 | 139,591 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 81,388 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].