工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 分项 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 近月 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8000 | 7950 | -50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8350 | 8300 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8550 | 8500 | -50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 ...

工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 受商品情绪影响，工业硅多晶硅盘面反弹 2025-06-04，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7150元/吨，最后收于7280元/吨，较前一日结算变化（205） 元/吨，变化（2.90）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓180328手，2025-06-05仓单总数为61803手，较前一日变化 -887手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8500-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 四川、上海地区部分硅价小幅走弱。西北、新疆硅价暂稳。97硅今日价格同样暂稳，现货成交情况有所好转。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，华北单体企业正式进入检修，本次 检修所有装置全部停车，预计检修时长15天，影响DMC产量4000吨左右。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格触底反弹，主要收到整体商品情绪好转，前期下跌较 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250605：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/5 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,100.00 | -0.61% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,280.00 | 2.97% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 820.00 | -260.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 35.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 35,055.00 445.00 | 2.02% -695.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,100.00 | -0.61% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 8,150.00 | -0.6 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面暂无改善，反弹空间或有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪扰动，上方空间有限 | 6 | | 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,590 | 1,340 | 2,640 | 2,640 | -1,13 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a continuous decline, with cost support weakening, supply increasing, demand remaining weak, high social inventory, and expected short - term price decline. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. - The polysilicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices falling in both the futures and spot markets. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing as it enters the flat - water period, and the overall in - production cost of the industry will decline after the shutdown of high - cost enterprises in the north. Cost support for silicon prices is insufficient. - In May, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 416 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,188 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 103 yuan/ton. [2][36] 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the number of open furnaces increased significantly, mainly from restarted enterprises in Xinjiang. As of now, the restart in Xinjiang has temporarily ended, and there are no expected new restarts in the short term. In Sichuan, enterprises are gradually increasing furnace openings with the decline of electricity prices in the wet season. Yunnan still has restart plans after maintenance, expected to restart around mid - to - late June. - In the week of May 29, the silicon enterprise's furnace - opening rate increased slightly, with a net increase of 20 furnaces. [2][37] 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most transactions are at low prices. Polysilicon plants maintain a large - scale production reduction, the organic silicon industry reduces production, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, with rigid procurement of industrial silicon. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 29, the industrial silicon social inventory (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 58.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons; the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan totaled 23.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 million tons. [2][119] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - With strong restart expectations in the southwest production area and an increase in furnace openings of some silicon enterprises in the north, the supply shows an obvious increasing trend, while the demand maintains rigid procurement. Futures and spot prices are falling in tandem, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the short term. The futures price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. [2] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,900 tons. As of May 29, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises will increase and decrease simultaneously, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [67] 3.2.2 Demand - Demand is weak. Domestically, orders have shrunk significantly, while overseas orders are relatively stable. Long - term component orders have decreased significantly, and the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline. The demand for battery chips from the component side has decreased, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery chips will be tight in June. Silicon wafer prices have declined across all sizes, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction. [2] 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the futures and spot prices are falling in tandem. The downstream purchasing willingness remains low, and there is no expectation of bottom - fishing for inventory. Although the number of warehouse receipts has not increased significantly, the weak fundamentals have not led to the trading of squeeze - out risks in the futures price. In the short term, warehouse receipts have alleviated the price factor, and the strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Production - In May, the operating rate of China's DMC was 62.37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.79 percentage points; the DMC output was 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The industry mainly maintains production with reduced loads, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. [87] 3.3.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the price of organic silicon has fallen to a low level, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. [94] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Production - In the week of May 29, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. [104] 3.4.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. [107]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7280 | 210 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 200193 | -8304 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -20060 | 4148 广期所仓单(日,手) | 62690 | -563 | | | 7-8月合约价差 | -15 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8150 | -50 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8850 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 870 | -260 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11740 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 石墨电极(400mm)出场价(日,元/吨) | 1225 ...

（李敏） 节后工业硅市场仍未见明显起色，整体市场成交清淡，下游少量按需采购，现货价格下调。供应 端，南方地区少量厂家开始复产，北方地区虽有零星减产但北方大厂稳步推进复产计划，整体产量仍有 增加趋势。需求端，有几个柜单体厂近期开工率提升，产量增加；多晶硅厂近期开工小幅上调，对工业 硅需求增加；铝合金厂按需采购工业硅，对工业硅需求变动较小，工业硅三大下游总需求增加。价格方 面，有机硅DMC下游持观望谨慎态度，预售单减少，价格小幅下调；多晶硅节后成交较少，价格持 稳。 今日国内商品普遍上涨，工业硅盘面小幅上调，最终收盘于7280元/吨，较前一交易日上涨210元/ 吨。近期下游需求不振和西南地区预期开工导致市场悲观情绪浓重，但是当前价格也严重低于生产成 本，市场正在等待止跌契机。 本周工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。过去一周（2025年5月29日-6月4日），主力合约收盘价从7215元/ 吨先跌后涨至7280元/吨，涨幅为0.90%。全国综合价格为8747元/吨，下跌214元/吨，其中分牌号来看， 553为8452元/吨、441为9031元/吨、421为9356元/吨，分别下跌200元/吨、154元/吨和261元/吨，新疆、 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-04 仓单增加较多，多晶硅盘面回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7110元/吨，最后收于7070元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-100） 元/吨，变化（-1.39）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓200193手，2025-06-04仓单总数为62690手，较前一日变化 -563手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8100-8300（-100）元/吨；421#硅在8500-9200 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7800（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7800（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 天津、新疆、四川、上海、西北地区硅价也持续走低。97硅价格同样走低。价格回落后成交有所好转，但是多仍 以刚需采购为主。根据SMM市场交流，2025年5月份工业硅产量在30.77万吨环比增加2.3%同比下降24.6%。2025 年1-5月份工业硅累计产量同比减少15.3%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。部分厂家封盘不报 ...

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面底部弱势震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单超预期大增，盘面具备下跌驱动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,250 | 150 | -920 | -920 | -2 ...

"当前玻璃行业冷修与复产并存，从行业库存水平看，少量检修对行业供需格局难以形成较大影响。玻 璃行业潜在供应能力充足，若行业利润有所改善，将激发更多冷修待点火产线投入生产。玻璃期货2509 合约迭创新低，供应回升使盘面短期无明确支撑。"魏朝明说。 近期工业硅价格迭创新低。在价格连续下行过程中，供应维持增长态势。近日，新疆持续有大炉复产开 工；四川丰水期电价下行，企业为消纳弃水电份额，少量点火开炉；云南检修硅厂后续仍有复产计划。 端午假期后首个交易日，国内商品期货涨跌互现。其中，黄金、白银、原油涨幅较大，丁二烯橡胶、20 号胶、玻璃、焦煤、多晶硅、工业硅等品种跌幅较大。 国信期货首席有色分析师顾冯达介绍，短期贵金属波动将加剧，需紧盯美国关税政策及地缘风险边际变 化。若贸易摩擦升级或地缘冲突升温，COMEX黄金或上探3450美元/盎司左右，白银因工业属性与降息 预期共振，弹性或强于黄金；反之，若风险缓和，黄金可能回踩3300美元/盎司附近支撑，而白银受光 伏装机旺季托底，33.5美元/盎司左右支撑坚实。 对于玻璃、多晶硅、工业硅的下跌，方正中期期货首席新能源研究员魏朝明告诉期货日报记者，玻璃、 多晶硅、工业硅的共同 ...