1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4493.85 per ounce, up $140.90 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.24% [2][3] - Silver price was $78.14 per ounce, increasing by $3.93 from January 2, reflecting a growth rate of 5.29% [2][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for December showed an increase of 50,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a potential upward trend for precious metals [3] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $12,990 per ton, up $480 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.84% [4] - Domestic aluminum price was 24,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,540 yuan from December 31 [6] - High prices are suppressing short-term demand for copper and aluminum, with copper production facing supply disruptions [5][6] Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 350,700 yuan per ton, up 24,610 yuan from December 31, with a growth rate of 7.55% [7] - Antimony price was 158,000 yuan per ton, down 3,000 yuan from December 31, indicating weak demand [8] Group 4: Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the Fed's easing cycle [9] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as copper supply remains tight [10] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to rigid supply [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Report Core View - The copper price is expected to continue rising. Although the high copper price suppresses downstream procurement and domestic social inventory accumulates significantly, the export window is opening, which will relieve the domestic spot pressure. Additionally, the ruling on the US tariff case on January 14 may trigger market concerns about US copper tariffs again [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 3.51% to 103,800 yuan, and the total open interest increased by 12,971 lots to 695,000 lots. After the mixed US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night, the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to June, and the US dollar index rose. However, the metal sector soared across the board during the day, and the copper price rose again under the influence of the market's bullish sentiment [10]. - The spot copper shifted to a premium of 60 yuan. As the delivery approached and the supply of high - quality copper was tight, the premium quotation increased. But the domestic social inventory increased significantly again, with an increase of 19,600 tons to 293,400 tons from last Thursday. The high copper price suppressed downstream procurement [10]. - The export window is about to open, the spot import loss widened to 1,321 yuan/ton, the LME 0 - 3 back structure widened to $41.94/ton, and the LME market supply tightened. It is expected that the domestic spot pressure will be relieved when the export window opens [10]. 2. Industry News - Lundin Mining has submitted an environmental permit application to Chile, planning to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine. The project aims to optimize mine infrastructure and extend the mine's operation period to 2039. Caserones is expected to produce 127,000 - 133,000 tons of copper this year [10]. - Pan Pacific Copper proposed a record - high copper price premium of $330 per ton to its Japanese domestic customers in 2026, more than three times the $88 premium in 2025. The reasons for the premium increase are the significant decline in TC/RC, which raises raw material procurement costs, and the market's concern that the US may impose tariffs on copper ingots later this year, leading to a shortage of supply in the Asian market [10][11].

Group 1 - The copper metal sector has shown significant upward movement, with Hai Liang Co., Ltd. reaching the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies such as Xin Jin Road, Xiyu Co., Baiyin Youse, Xingye Yinx, and Jiangxi Copper have also experienced notable gains [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The balance between supply and demand is crucial, but macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions will significantly influence metal price trends [2] - Precious metals are supported by geopolitical factors, with gold prices expected to be bolstered by central bank purchases and rising ETF holdings [5] - Copper is transitioning from a commodity to a strategic asset, with price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic resilience and supply disruptions [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to robust macroeconomic performance and easing liquidity [5] - Energy metals like lithium are facing demand preemption due to export tax adjustments, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold increasing by 2.57% to 1,006.48 CNY/g and COMEX gold rising by 4.36% to 4,518.40 USD/oz [8][25] - Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 3.85% to 18,731 CNY/kg and COMEX silver up 12.36% to 79.79 USD/oz [9][25] - Central bank gold reserves in China increased to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous expansion over 14 months [8] Copper - Copper prices increased, with SHFE copper rising by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY/ton and LME copper up 4.24% to 12,998 USD/ton [10][22] - Supply disruptions from the Mantoverde copper mine strike in Chile are expected to maintain price strength [10] - The copper market is characterized by low inventory levels, with global visible inventory at 909,000 tons [10][67] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have shown strong performance, with SHFE aluminum increasing by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY/ton and LME aluminum up 4.00% to 3,136 USD/ton [10][79] - The average operating rate for aluminum processing has slightly increased to 60.1% [93] Energy Metals - Lithium production is on the rise, with a weekly increase of 115 tons, although demand is showing signs of weakness [11] - Cobalt prices remain elevated due to tight supply conditions, with companies extending their operations into downstream sectors [11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices have rebounded, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by a combination of reasonable valuations, structural differentiation, and supply scarcity, indicating long-term investment value despite short-term market emotions [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold's recent price increase is attributed to its role as a pricing tool for global monetary stability rather than traditional notions of "safe haven" or "interest rate expectations" [3]. - The ongoing expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit is weakening dollar credibility, which supports gold's upward trend [3]. - Institutional investors, particularly through ETFs, have become the primary buyers of gold since 2025, indicating its integration into diversified asset allocation frameworks [3]. Group 2: Copper as a Strategic Resource - Copper is transitioning from a traditional cyclical commodity to a strategic resource with growth attributes, impacting the valuation and investment duration of related companies [4]. - The depletion of high-quality copper mines and rising extraction costs are extending the supply release timeline, suggesting that high copper prices may persist longer [4]. - The market is increasingly valuing companies based on sustained profitability rather than short-term performance, leading to a revaluation of copper firms [4]. Group 3: Sector Health and Valuation - The non-ferrous metal sector remains in a healthy valuation state, with current PE ratios around 10-12, which is lower than historical averages compared to other high-valuation sectors [5]. - A PE ratio of 20-30 would signal potential overheating in the sector, as it would imply a lengthy payback period for investments [5]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more selective approach in 2026, focusing on companies with favorable supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector in 2026 is summarized by three keywords: valuation, structure, and scarcity, emphasizing the importance of maintaining focus on quality amid market volatility [6].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes three main investment themes: 1) Economic growth in AI technology, with a focus on domestic opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, as well as applications in robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software [1] - 2) External demand opportunities, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from overseas expansion [1] - 3) Cyclical reversal, suggesting attention to sectors like chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy that are nearing improvement points in supply and demand or receiving policy support [1] Group 2 - The trend of share buybacks and increases in holdings by listed companies is expected to continue until 2026, with companies like Dongcheng Pharmaceutical and Century Huatong announcing buyback plans, reinforcing confidence in company valuations [3] - The domestic tourism market is projected to perform well in 2026, with a significant increase in travel during the New Year holiday, indicating a positive outlook for the tourism sector [3] Group 3 - Copper prices are experiencing the largest annual increase since 2009, with a 44% rise this year, driven by expectations of supply shortages due to increased demand for electrification [5] - The strong performance of copper is expected to continue into 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [5] Group 4 - The A-share market is showing a strong upward trend, attracting external capital, with expectations of a structural market rally supported by policy and industry trends [11] - The focus is on technology leaders with performance delivery capabilities and cyclical sectors benefiting from price recovery expectations [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by