1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has recovered, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Experiencing minor fluctuations [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan [2]. - Aluminum: Showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventories are accumulating, conflicting with risks in Indonesia, resulting in low - level fluctuations [2]. - Stainless Steel: Lacking upward momentum, but also with limited downside potential [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: - Gold:沪金2512昨日收盘价945.76，日跌幅 - 0.33%，夜盘收盘价963.32，夜盘涨幅1.78%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价4201.40，日涨幅1.65% [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日收盘价12073，日涨幅1.65%，夜盘收盘价12508.00，夜盘涨幅4.81%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价53.230，日涨幅4.22% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金25122510昨日成交260,377，较前日减少21,972；持仓124,540，较前日减少6,505；Comex黄金2512成交278,020，较前日增加38,441；持仓278,065，较前日减少13,785 [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日成交101,561，较前日增加31,704；持仓88,600，较前日减少5,753；Comex白银2512成交155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓122,583，较前日无变化 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: - Gold: Comex黄金（金衡盎司，前日）库存37,575,140，较前日减少154,316 [4]. - Silver: Comex白银（金衡盎司，前日）库存478,558,059，较前日减少546,636 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Movements**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价86,840，日涨幅0.24%，夜盘收盘价87430，夜盘涨幅0.68%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价10,897，日涨幅0.53% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数昨日成交159,202，较前日增加2,758；持仓552,936，较前日减少173；伦铜3M电子盘成交19,884，较前日增加6,498；持仓319,000，较前日减少5,408 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铜期货库存44,088，较前日增加1,124；伦铜库存136,250，较前日无变化 [8]. - Spread: LME铜升贴水较前日变动 - 6.43；上海铜现货对LMEcash价差较前日增加72 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price Movements**:沪锌主力收盘价22680，涨幅0.02%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3069，跌幅 - 0.53% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量71426，较前日减少10276；持仓量105905，较前日减少1570；伦锌成交量9073，较前日减少844；持仓量220862，较前日增加946 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锌期货库存70890，较前日增加372；LME锌库存35875，较前日增加575 [11]. - Spread: ZN00 - ZN01较前日变动15 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Price Movements**:沪铅主力收盘价17660，涨幅1.26%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2067，涨幅0.51% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量55843，较前日增加24988；持仓量50539，较前日减少4568；伦铅成交量8189，较前日减少1092；持仓量155924，较前日增加2283 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铅期货库存24686，较前日增加917；LME铅库存225225，较前日减少1500 [14]. - Spread: PB00 - PB01较前日变动 - 15 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price Movements**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价292,440，日涨幅1.48%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价37,405，日涨幅1.93% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约昨日成交124,419，较前日增加74,980；持仓40,779，较前日增加4,387；伦锡3M电子盘成交180，较前日减少9；持仓13,988，较前日增加53 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锡期货库存5,446，较前日减少136；伦锡库存3,055，较前日增加40 [17]. - Spread: SMM 1锡锭价格较前日增加1,500；长江有色1锡平均价较前日增加4,300 [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约收盘价21880；LME铝3M收盘价2880 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2821 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约收盘价21245 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约成交量223798；持仓量420066 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约成交量267963；持仓量412758 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约成交量6280；持仓量15573 [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Aluminum: LME注销仓单占比6.19%；LME铝cash - 3M价差 - 23.69 [21]. - Alumina: No significant spread data mentioned [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:近月合约对连一合约价差 - 235.00 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a trend intensity of 1, while alumina has a trend intensity of 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: - Nickel:沪镍主力收盘价118,710；1进口镍119,000 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力收盘价12,425 [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Nickel:沪镍主力成交量98,248 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力成交量139,703 [24]. - **Industry - related Data**: - Nickel: 8 - 12%高镍生铁（出厂价）909；镍板进口利润 - 1,577 [24]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B卷 - 毛边（无锡）宏旺/北部湾12,825 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [28].

Core Insights - The year 2025 has been marked by significant market movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, validating earlier bullish predictions [1] - Key themes for 2025 include the impact of Trump's new policies, domestic policy responses, and the challenges of asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The A-share market has seen a surge in investor participation, with nearly 250 million investors, indicating a robust market environment [2] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have performed well, driven by sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the ChiNext Index outperforming gold [3] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 have reported positive returns, with a stark contrast between the leading materials sector and the declining food and beverage sector, showing an 80% difference [4] - Various fund types have achieved positive returns, with equity and mixed funds averaging 29.97% and 26.17% returns respectively [7] Fund Performance - Commodity funds have seen unprecedented gains, with returns nearing 40%, while QDII funds have also performed well with a 26.46% increase [8] - FOF funds have benefited from diversified asset allocation, achieving an average return of 15.84%, marking one of the best years historically [8] - Bond funds have lagged, with an average return of only 2.13%, although convertible bond funds have performed better, exceeding 20% returns [8] Investment Trends - The concept of "slow bull" has gained traction, with expectations for a sustainable market rally over the next two to three years, supported by technological innovation and policy backing [16] - Investors are increasingly favoring low-volatility products, with a focus on absolute returns and diversified strategies [14] - The market is characterized by alternating sentiments of fear and greed, with a need for disciplined investment approaches amidst volatility [12][19]

Group 1 - The recent significant adjustments in A-shares are attributed to large funds rebalancing their portfolios, with the Shanghai Composite Index consolidating around the 4000-point mark, indicating potential upward momentum in the future [3][4]. - Data shows that by Q3 2025, large funds increased their positions in the pan-technology sector by over 10%, reaching nearly 40%, a historical high that is unsustainable, prompting a necessary rebalancing [5]. - Historical trends indicate that large funds have previously "herded" into sectors, such as bank stocks in 2009, which were considered growth stocks due to rapid economic expansion [5]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" stocks and resource stocks (such as precious metals) are highlighted as sectors that have not been discredited, with the Chinese government's focus on high-quality development supporting this trend [7]. - Precious metals like gold are expected to benefit from a weakening dollar and increased demand due to geopolitical risks, while copper is seen as essential for green transformation, with demand surging from sectors like AI and electric vehicles [7][8]. - Aluminum demand is also projected to rise due to its applications in lightweighting for electric vehicles and solar energy, with supply constraints leading to a bullish outlook on prices [7][8]. Group 3 - Recent economic data, particularly the positive CPI figures, have raised expectations for economic recovery, leading to a rebound in some consumer stocks [10]. - The long-term investment perspective emphasizes the importance of patience, as short-term market movements are often driven by emotions rather than fundamentals [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, but in the short - term (November), there is no strong driving force, and the market is in an adjustment phase [3]. - **Copper**: The spot market's purchasing sentiment is high, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper is 86,535 yuan/ton with an expanding premium. However, when the price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton, downstream counter - offer willingness increases. Whether the copper price can break through the trading - intensive area remains to be seen [12]. - **Aluminum**: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry. For alumina, it is on an over - supply path despite some price increases due to environmental restrictions [33]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC dropped significantly due to intense competition for mines and limited domestic mine increments. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and low inventory supports the price. There is some upward driving force in November, and export and macro factors need to be monitored [58]. - **Nickel**: Weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The Philippines' nickel mine production and shipment are affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the price may remain strong in the short - term. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel demand needs attention [74]. - **Tin**: Supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption in Wabang and reduced concentrate imports. The Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock, with a predicted support at around 276,000 yuan. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increment is stable, and demand is strong in November. The market sentiment is positive. Technically, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend, short - term adjustment in November [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold and silver prices, and their ratios are presented in the report [4]. - **Spread Data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot spreads are shown [5][7]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are provided [11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: High purchasing sentiment, average 1 electrolytic copper price at 86,535 yuan/ton, and expanding premium [12]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are given. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 86,630 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17% [13]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented [19][21]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import profit is - 585.37 yuan/ton, and copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 3,393.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13.58% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: Shanghai copper's total warehouse receipts are 42,964 tons, a decrease of 1.88% [29]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Funds drive the price, but there is a contradiction with the industry. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is weak [33]. - **Alumina**: Some price increases due to environmental restrictions, but overall in an over - supply situation [33]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum futures, alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures are provided [35]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina are presented [37][39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international aluminum spot prices and premiums are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London aluminum warehouse receipts and inventories, as well as alumina warehouse receipts, are reported [52]. Zinc - **Market Outlook**: TC dropped in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the price, and there is upward driving force [58]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided [59]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented [67]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts and inventories are reported [71]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Weak demand in the off - season, affected by macro factors. Nickel mine prices may be strong, and nickel iron and stainless - steel demand need attention [74]. - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt numbers of Shanghai and London nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are given [75]. Tin - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and the price will maintain a high - level shock. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [90]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot products are presented [95]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin's warehouse receipts and London tin's inventory are reported [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is strong, and it is in a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are given [105]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot products, as well as their price differences, are presented [110]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest numbers, daily and weekly changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and various social inventories are reported [114]. Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, with wide - range fluctuations expected [116]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain are presented [123][124][125]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as the polysilicon inventory, are reported [130][134][143].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the supply improvement is limited. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be compensated by the new - demand growth. With the expected end of the US government shutdown and improved market sentiment, long positions should be held. The subsequent trend depends on the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The macro - environment has some pressure, and the industry is multi - empty intertwined. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Stainless Steel - The policy and macro - drive are weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 12,500 - 13,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro and policy environment is favorable, and the capital is optimistic. The fundamentals show a slight increase in production. The short - term price has a strong reality support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The subsequent trend depends on the demand change in the off - season and the upstream project release [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contract [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expectations in each link. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The trading strategy includes low - level trial - buying in the futures market, selling put options in the options market, and holding or taking profits in the equity market [12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will be in a game between event - drive and weak fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as LME warehouse receipts and overseas macro - trends [15]. Copper - The copper price rebounded slightly. In the macro - aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should pay attention to the 84,000 - 85,000 support [17]. Zinc - The liquidity risk of zinc is expected to be mitigated. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand is average. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost the domestic price. The main contract refers to 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is strongly volatile. The cost has rigid support, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract referring to 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as scrap aluminum supply and inventory changes [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 7.99% to - 14,989.79 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 7.99% to - 1,825 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 124.36% month - on - month. The SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.70% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% month - on - month [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon spot increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,290 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties decreased [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased slightly [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The N - type polysilicon average price remained unchanged, and the futures price increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis decreased by 49.75% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% week - on - week, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory decreased slightly [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 202.3 yuan/ton to - 2,316 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum profile and cable operating rates decreased [15]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 13.58% to 3,394 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 26.50% month - on - month. The domestic social inventory decreased [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 596.07 yuan/ton to - 4,818 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week [20]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 2.78% to 1,751 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [12][13]. Core Views - The report highlights a strengthening in aluminum prices, driven by favorable macroeconomic signals and supply disruptions, suggesting a potential valuation recovery for aluminum companies [1][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is seen as supportive for copper and aluminum prices, with expectations of price increases due to positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations [12][6]. - The report emphasizes that gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [12][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a weekly increase of 0.64%, with aluminum leading among sub-sectors with a 3.84% rise [22][18]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's October imports grew by 1% year-on-year, while exports fell by 1.1% [28]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [28]. Precious Metals Market Data - The report notes that gold prices are supported by a high probability of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold trading at $3994.10 per ounce [4][5]. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices are under pressure, with LME copper closing at $10,744 per ton, down 1.57% from the previous week [6]. - Aluminum prices in China are reported at 21,580 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report recommends specific stocks within the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, highlighting companies such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum as key investment opportunities [12][13]. Key Recommended Stocks - For the gold sector, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold. In the copper sector, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted. For aluminum, companies like Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum are recommended [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - Chujiang New Materials has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 52.07%, despite a recent decline of 3.41% over the last five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Chujiang New Materials achieved a revenue of 44.191 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.29% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 355 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year increase of 2089.49% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 10, 2025, the stock price of Chujiang New Materials was 12.47 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 20.238 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 7.82 billion yuan on the same day, with a turnover rate of 3.93% [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of 38.189 million yuan on October 16 [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 72,300, up by 67.75% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 35.84% to 22,327 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Chujiang New Materials has distributed a total of 1.36 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 479 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Major Shareholders - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest circulating shareholder with 20.3385 million shares, marking a new entry [3] - E-Fund Defense Industry Mixed A and Guotai CSI Military Industry ETF have seen reductions in their holdings, while Southern CSI 1000 ETF is a new entrant among the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

Group 1 - The sentiment index for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is declining from high levels, with a decrease in the VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Current institutional focus is on the defense and military industry, while attention in the telecommunications sector has decreased from high levels [1] - There has been an increase in institutional interest in the "oil and petrochemicals," "coal," "steel," "retail," and "non-bank financial" sectors over the past week [1] Group 2 - Many industries are currently at the threshold of triggering congestion indicators, including liquidity, constituent stock diffusion, and constituent stock consistency [1] - The relative returns for electric power and utilities, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, electronics, and computers are expected to be favorable by November 2025 [1] - The VIX for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil has decreased, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [1]