Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - **Precious Metals**: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - **Lead**: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **PX & PTA**: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - **Corn**: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the report [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends and low operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided in the report - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound in the short term, while iron ore is likely to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal prices are volatile and influenced by policies. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by demand and policy continuity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures continued to rebound. This week, the apparent demand and production of thread both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils dropped significantly, production also decreased notably, and inventory continued to rise [2] - Affected by the parade, hot metal production dropped sharply this week and will gradually resume production later, but profit per ton of steel will limit the resumption space [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down. Overall domestic demand remained weak, while exports were expected to stay at a high level [2] - After continuous adjustments, the futures market gradually stabilized. With the rising expectation of anti-competition, market sentiment quickly improved, and it is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures fluctuated. Global shipments were strong, but those from Australia and those to China were weak. The arrival volume in China rebounded, and port inventory increased slightly this week, with a large decline in Australian ore, but there is no overall pressure to accumulate inventory [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel declined, the profitability rate of steel mills shrank, and hot metal production decreased significantly. There is an expectation of production resumption after the phased production restriction ends, and the demand support from high hot metal production still exists [3] - Macro利好 has been partially realized in the short term, but there is an overseas interest rate cut window in September. It is expected that speculative sentiment will not completely subside, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices rebounded significantly during the day. Whether the first round of price cuts in the coking industry will be fully implemented next Monday remains to be observed [4] - Coking profits are acceptable, daily coking production decreased slightly, overall coke inventory increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4] - The coke futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly during the day. Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines decreased significantly, but the impact time was short [6] - Spot auction transactions weakened slightly, and transaction prices fell following the futures market. Terminal inventory decreased slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory decreased month-on-month, and production-side inventory increased slightly. Coking coal production suspension will gradually resume, with a short impact duration, and it is expected to have little impact on inventory [6] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [6] - The coking coal futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [7] - The weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level. Silicon manganese inventory has not yet accumulated, and both futures and spot demand are good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore price decreased this week. However, after the significant rebound in the futures market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [7] - In the long term, it is judged that manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [8] - Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand is acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply continued to increase significantly, market futures and spot demand are good, and on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [8]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for August 2025 is reported at 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1][3] - The index has shown a continuous month-on-month recovery for four consecutive months, indicating an expansion in enterprise production and operations due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [1][3] - The upcoming traditional production peak seasons in September and October are expected to sustain the positive development trend in the commodity market, despite ongoing global economic uncertainties [1][3] Price Index Summary - The CBPI for August 2025 is 111.7 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [3] - The energy price index is at 98.7 points, up 2.0% month-on-month but down 8.4% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index is at 79.7 points, with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index is at 130.4 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [3] - The chemical price index is at 101.9 points, down 1.0% month-on-month and down 11.0% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index is at 97.1 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and up 1.4% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index is at 70.5 points, down 1.6% month-on-month and down 12.6% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 saw price increases while 25 experienced declines [5] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases are coking coal (20.1%), neodymium oxide (19.1%), and lithium carbonate (16.6%) [5] - The top three commodities with the largest month-on-month price decreases are apples (-4.6%), methanol (-3.6%), and urea (-2.8%) [5] Market Context - The CBPI shows a divergence from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and aligns with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends [4] - The S&P 500 index reached a historical peak of 6508.23 points, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a weaker dollar, which bolstered confidence in the commodity market [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different black commodities: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a weakening trend), coke (fluctuation with a weakening trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the production of rebar decreased slightly, inventory accumulated significantly, and apparent demand declined. With prices hitting the cost - line, cost support strengthened, and short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1] - For iron ore, supply increased while demand decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and a decline in molten iron production. With a mixed situation of long and short factors, short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, production increased as some mines resumed operations, while demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For coke, although the coking association resisted price cuts, the weakening of coking coal prices led to a marginal increase in supply. With high steel billet inventory and weak steel prices, short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For manganese silicon, production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased, and costs decreased slightly. With no strong driving force in the fundamentals, short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - For ferrosilicon, production enterprises are in a loss - making state, steel procurement prices decreased, and there is no strong driving force in the short - term fundamentals. Short - term ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and electricity prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. This week, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons week - on - week to 218.68 tons, social inventory increased by 14.89 tons to 468.66 tons, factory inventory increased by 1.72 tons to 171.34 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton (1.9%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume and positions. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, while molten iron production decreased by 11.29 tons to 228.84 tons. The profitability of steel mills declined, and port inventory increased while steel mill inventory decreased [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (1.04%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production increased as some mines resumed operations, and downstream demand was weak [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (0.78%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices decreased. Although the coking association resisted price cuts, supply increased marginally due to the weakening of coking coal prices, and demand was cautious [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5730 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in most regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased significantly, and costs decreased slightly [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in some regions decreased. Production enterprises are in a loss - making state, and steel procurement prices decreased [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of different contracts for various commodities changed. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 82.0, down 10.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil was 16.0, up 5.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for various commodities also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 195.0, down 1.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 21.0, down 9.0 [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai was 3230.0, unchanged; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3350.0, up 10.0 [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: The profits and spreads of different commodities also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 22.7, down 6.7; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 196.0, up 3.0 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - commodity contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55] Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Core Viewpoint - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for August 2025 is reported at 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating a stable recovery in the commodity market [1][4]. Price Index Summary - The CBPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, signaling a stable recovery in the commodity market [1][4]. - The energy price index has rebounded, reporting 98.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2% [4][10]. - The black metal price index has continued to rebound, reaching 79.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metal price index has also risen, reporting 130.4 points with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4][10]. - The chemical price index has declined, reporting 101.9 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [10]. - The agricultural product price index has slightly decreased to 97.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.8% but a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [10]. Commodity Price Changes - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 saw price increases while 25 experienced declines in August [8]. - The top three commodities with price increases were coke (20.1%), praseodymium oxide (19.1%), and lithium carbonate (16.6%) [8]. - The top three commodities with price declines were apples (-4.6%), methanol (-3.6%), and urea (-2.8%) [8]. Market Insights - Analysts attribute the rebound in black metal prices to the implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition [6][7]. - The rise in energy prices is linked to the peak summer energy demand and the ongoing implementation of "anti-involution" policies [6]. - The increase in non-ferrous metal prices is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a gradual recovery in domestic demand [6]. - The decline in chemical prices is primarily due to seasonal demand weakness and a drop in international oil prices, which has weakened cost support [10]. - The mineral price index has decreased due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall affecting project construction progress and downstream demand [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In September 2025, the direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the current volatility has risen [2]. - The short - term trend of various futures products varies. For example, gold is expected to rise above $3600 but shows an overbought phenomenon, while some products like steel are in a weak decline [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are - 0.67%, - 0.41%, - 1.16%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the next direction [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.8%. Use range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is expected to rise above $3600, but be cautious about chasing long positions. Silver long positions can be held or use unilateral call options to go long [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The EC main contract rebounds and fluctuates. Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Futures**: The apparent demand for rebar declines, and the steel price maintains a weak downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the ratio of steel to ore [2]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The shipment rises to a high level, and the price fluctuates with steel. The range is 750 - 810. Go long on iron ore and short on coke [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The spot price fluctuates weakly. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal for arbitrage [2]. - **Coke Futures**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants is implemented, and the eighth round is blocked. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coke for arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Futures - **Copper Futures**: The center of the copper price rises. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price shows different trends. Pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the pressure level of 21000 [2]. - **Zinc Futures**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory accumulates. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Nickel Futures**: The dollar strengthens, and the nickel price fluctuates and falls. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The price weakens slightly, with a game between cost support and weak demand. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: The expected marginal supply increase pressures the oil price. Adopt a unilateral short - bias approach [2]. - **Urea Futures**: High supply pressure and lower Indian bids make the short - term market likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PX Futures**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September, with limited short - term drivers. Wait and see and pay attention to the support at 6600 and the oil price [2]. - **PTA Futures**: There is little supply - demand contradiction in September, with limited drivers. Wait and see, pay attention to the support at 4600 and the oil price, and mainly do a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [2]. - **Other Chemical Futures**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading strategies, such as short - term shock, range - bound operations, etc. [2] Agricultural Futures - **Livestock Futures**: The supply - demand contradiction of live pigs is limited. Pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm. The 11 - contract pays attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Grain Futures**: Corn spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates and adjusts. Short on rallies [2]. - **Oil Futures**: Palm oil maintains a strong shock consolidation and may冲击 $9500 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Futures**: Each agricultural product has different supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions such as short - position closing, waiting and seeing, etc. [2] Special Commodity Futures - **Glass Futures**: The futures and spot inventories are at a high level, and the industry has a negative feedback. Hold short positions [2]. - **Rubber Futures**: The fundamentals are strong, and the rubber price fluctuates at a high level. Short on rallies if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The spot price rises slightly, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price range is 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: The spot price rises, and the polysilicon price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The situation has not improved, and the price is weak. Wait and see [2]. Tin Futures - The supply remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [3]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for hot-rolled ordinary plate coils (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) is 3482.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.16% and a month-on-month increase of 0.52% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same product was 5840.1 yuan per ton in mid-August 2021 [1] Historical Data - The report includes a statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of hot-rolled ordinary plate coils (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) from 2019 to mid-August 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for angle steel (5) is reported at 3548.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81% and a month-on-month increase of 0.32% [1] - The highest recorded price for angle steel (5) in the past five years was 5613.2 yuan per ton in mid-August 2021 [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of angle steel (5) from 2019 to mid-August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant price movements over the years [1]