Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a high - level decline, and Singapore fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 4,566 yuan/ton, down 3.99% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 5,367 yuan/ton, down 4.09% for the week. [3] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to weak downstream marine fuel demand and a continuous decline in the spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil. Singapore's low - sulfur marine fuel oil market supply is relatively sufficient, and shipowners reduce or postpone purchases due to high prices. [3] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure also showed weakness. The spot premium of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil fell to a more than two - week low, and the spot market buying interest was low. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is more abundant than low - sulfur fuel oil. [4] - As long as the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupts normal trade flows, market concerns about supply will support the high - sulfur fuel oil and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil markets to remain relatively strong in the short term. [4] - Crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate significantly in the future, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely with the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operation is recommended in the range of 4,400 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operation is recommended in the range of 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton. [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil declined last week, and Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated. Low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets both showed weakness, but supply concerns may support the market in the short term. Future fuel oil prices will fluctuate with the market, and specific short - term operation ranges are given. [3][4] 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price dropped from 4,803 yuan to 4,571 yuan, a decrease of 4.83%; the LU main contract price dropped from 5,718 yuan to 5,290 yuan, a decrease of 7.49%. [5] - **Spot prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions all increased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 827.00 to 866.00, an increase of 4.72%; the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 656.37 to 711.79, an increase of 8.44%. [6] 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption data**: There are consumption data charts for Singapore and China fuel oil, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [7][9] - **Gross profit data**: There is a chart of Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [10] 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore fuel oil inventory**: The inventory data from January 14, 2026, to March 25, 2026, shows that the inventory has fluctuations. For example, on January 14, 2026, the inventory was 2,290.9 barrels, and on March 25, 2026, it was 2,659.9 barrels. [12] - **Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory**: There is a chart of the inventory trend, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [15] 5. Spread Data - There is a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. With high crude oil prices, sugar production was squeezed, making sugar prices more likely to rise than fall. The overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal, and a bullish view was maintained [4]. - Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. Technically, it showed a trend of moving into a right - side market. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The sugar price advanced three steps and retreated two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract was about to shift to the 09 contract, and a short - long strategy was recommended on intraday pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. The high crude oil price squeezed sugar production, and the overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal. Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, the U.S. cola has changed its formula to use sucrose, and the crude oil price has risen [5]. - Bearish factors: The global sugar production has increased, and the import profit window has opened, increasing the import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - In the 25/26 season, as of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons' supply and demand are as follows: Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - The 25/26 season's supply and demand situation in the past three months' institutional forecasts showed different production, consumption, and surplus predictions from institutions such as the International Sugar Organization, StoneX, Czarnikow, Green Pool, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture [28]. - The sugar production, consumption, import, and other data from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented, including sugar - cane and beet - sugar production, import volume, consumption volume, and price ranges [30]. - The import cost of raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) at different dates is provided, including ICE raw sugar closing prices, exchange rates, and costs within and outside the quota [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices rose slightly with no significant changes in fundamentals. Supported by the short - term consumption peak season, the futures price moved up slowly. - The ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be reduced by over 10%. - According to the USDA's March report, the production in the 25/26 season is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. - From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - The textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with the upper pressure around 15,700. The center of gravity moves up slowly, and the intraday trading should follow a slightly long - biased and oscillatory strategy [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Prompt No information provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Among them, China's production is 7.729 million tons, consumption is 8.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 7.917 million tons [9][10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease year - on - year; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease year - on - year; the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease year - on - year [12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [14]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to reduce the area by over 10%. Downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, reduction of export tariffs to the US, easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large number of new cotton has been listed, and the current period is the traditional consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The main producing area mines maintain normal production, with sufficient supply. Driven by coke price increases and market demand, the coking coal market is improving, downstream procurement demand is rising, and coal mine inventories are rapidly decreasing. The short - term market will continue to be strong. With downstream复产 and improved terminal product sales, coking coal prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **For Coke**: Downstream demand provides good support, and coke enterprises' inventories are mostly low. Due to rising coking coal prices, coke enterprises are near the break - even point, and some are holding back supply waiting for price increases. After the first round of coke price increases was accepted by some steel mills, coke prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price** - **Imported Coking Coal**: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided. For example, the price of Russian K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1400 [8]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke of different grades and from different origins are provided. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Lianyungang is 1500 [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [28]. **Factors Affecting Prices** - **Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents market data, option factors, and trading strategies for various black commodities, including glass, iron ore, rebar, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and manganese - silicon options. It analyzes the price trends, implied volatility, and market sentiment of each commodity and provides corresponding trading strategy suggestions [6][18][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass (FG) - **标的期货市场数据**: FG605 contract yesterday's closing price was 1036 yuan, down 23 yuan (2.17%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 1019910 lots, an increase of 278456 lots, and the open interest was 1144060 lots, an increase of 127921 lots [3][6] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of FG (glass call options) was 215208, a decrease of 62884; the open interest was 472348, an increase of 34643. The trading volume PCR was 0.54, a decrease of 0.01; the open - interest PCR was 0.43, a decrease of 0.01 [4] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of FG (glass options) was 1040, the resistance level was 1660, the support level was 1000, the weighted implied volatility was 50.83%, a decrease of 1.26%, the annual average implied volatility was 38.17%, and HISV20 was 29.90% [5] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of FG options fluctuated above the mean of 0.3813. The open - interest PCR of FG options was 0.4406, at the 62.04% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options, such as S_FG2605P1020 and S_FG2605C1200 [6][7] 3.2 Iron Ore (I) - **标的期货市场数据**: The i2605 contract yesterday's closing price was 817 yuan, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 216414 lots, a decrease of 162235 lots, and the open interest was 408026 lots, a decrease of 6288 lots [15][18] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of iron ore call options was 53116, a decrease of 8636; the open interest was 170816, an increase of 4138. The trading volume PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.04; the open - interest PCR was 0.93 [16] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of iron ore options was 810, the resistance level was 900, the support level was 700, the weighted implied volatility was 26.58%, a decrease of 0.75%, the annual average implied volatility was 22.87%, and HISV20 was 14.65% [17] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of iron ore options fluctuated above the mean of 0.2287. The open - interest PCR of iron ore options was 0.9218, at the 15.51% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination of call options, such as B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830; Volatility strategy: None [18][19] 3.3 Rebar (RB) - **标的期货市场数据**: The rb2605 contract yesterday's closing price was 3128 yuan, down 11 yuan (0.35%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 406440 lots, a decrease of 187168 lots, and the open interest was 1167210 lots, a decrease of 40108 lots [28][31] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of RB (rebar call options) was 22026, an increase of 3199; the open interest was 229607, a decrease of 134. The trading volume PCR was 0.41, a decrease of 0.1; the open - interest PCR was 0.54, an increase of 0.01 [29] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of RB (rebar options) was 3100, the resistance level was 3550, the support level was 3000, the weighted implied volatility was 16.37%, a decrease of 0.71%, the annual average implied volatility was 17.28%, and HISV20 was 6.54% [30] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of RB options fluctuated above the mean of 0.1728. The open - interest PCR of RB options was 0.5295, at the 47.35% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy: Construct a combination of selling call and put options, such as S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3200 [31][32] 3.4 Soda Ash (SA) - **标的期货市场数据**: The SA605 contract yesterday's closing price was 1225 yuan, down 15 yuan (1.20%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 727837 lots, a decrease of 197357 lots, and the open interest was 826947 lots, a decrease of 13841 lots [40][43] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of SA (soda ash call options) was 172467, a decrease of 93406; the open interest was 386868, an increase of 9430. The trading volume PCR was 0.32, an increase of 0.06; the open - interest PCR was 0.34 [41] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of SA (soda ash options) was 1220, the resistance level was 1740, the support level was 1100, the weighted implied volatility was 42.94%, a decrease of 5.52%, the annual average implied volatility was 32.87%, and HISV20 was 29.70% [42] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of SA options fluctuated above the mean of 0.3281. The open - interest PCR of SA options was 0.3392, at the 60.82% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination, such as S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [43][44] 3.5 Ferrosilicon (SF) - **标的期货市场数据**: The SF605 contract yesterday's closing price was 5982 yuan, down 28 yuan (0.46%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 181701 lots, a decrease of 21357 lots, and the open interest was 171684 lots, a decrease of 3104 lots [53][56] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of SF (ferrosilicon call options) was 21723, an increase of 7787; the open interest was 30038, an increase of 2229. The trading volume PCR was 0.38, a decrease of 0.19; the open - interest PCR was 0.9, a decrease of 0.02 [54] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of SF (ferrosilicon options) was 6000, the resistance level was 6700, the support level was 5600, the weighted implied volatility was 27.46%, a decrease of 1.32%, the annual average implied volatility was 22.95%, and HISV20 was 20.09% [55] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of SF options fluctuated above the mean of 0.2291. The open - interest PCR of SF options was 0.9187, at the 86.12% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy: Do not recommend strategies based on selling (such as single - selling or double - selling) [56][57] 3.6 Manganese - Silicon (SM) - **标的期货市场数据**: The SM605 contract yesterday's closing price was 6434 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.12%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 374063 lots, a decrease of 65675 lots, and the open interest was 380552 lots, a decrease of 11868 lots [66][69] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR**: The trading volume of SM (manganese - silicon call options) was 145455, an increase of 58284; the open interest was 96384, an increase of 6231. The trading volume PCR was 0.22, a decrease of 0.16; the open - interest PCR was 0.61, a decrease of 0.04 [67] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑**: The flat - strike price of SM (manganese - silicon options) was 6600, the resistance level was 7100, the support level was 6000, the weighted implied volatility was 37.51%, an increase of 5.36%, the annual average implied volatility was 22.74%, and HISV20 was 18.27% [68] - **行情解读与策略建议**: Implied volatility of SM options fluctuated above the mean of 0.2267. The open - interest PCR of SM options was 0.6522, at the 62.04% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination of call options; Volatility strategy: Due to high geopolitical risks, do not recommend strategies based on selling (such as single - selling or double - selling) [69][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is mainly "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The domestic soybean meal market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with the futures price slightly lower and showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5] - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean futures price is oscillating. The US soybean export sales exceed expectations, and the cost of imported soybeans still provides support. The domestic oil mills' shutdown arrangements and reluctance to sell support the spot and near - month contracts, but the expectation of a huge amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in April - May suppresses the far - month prices. The downstream's stocking mentality is cautious. The Middle East situation disturbs the US soybean pricing through the bio - fuel chain, and Brazil's record - high production increases the long - term supply pressure [5] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the market is disturbed by macro - sentiment and cost. After the previous risk premium is withdrawn, trading becomes cautious before the USDA report. The soybean meal futures price mainly operates in an oscillating and weakly manner, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of Brazilian soybeans and policy dynamics [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The palm oil futures price has continued to be strong recently [7] - **Driving Factors**: External market boosts, high - level operation of international oil prices strengthens the bio - fuel demand expectation, export data is strong (shipment agencies show that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% - 50.6% month - on - month), and the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate increases the attractiveness to foreign currency buyers. At the same time, the Indonesian government is considering raising the export fee in April, which may affect the supply rhythm. However, India's palm oil imports in March may drop from 848,000 tons in February to 680,000 tons, and the purchasing willingness weakens [7] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors, export, and bio - fuel expectations support the palm oil to operate at a high level. Affected by the international oil market, the short - term palm oil futures price fluctuates more sharply at a high level [7] Soybean Oil - **Driving Factors**: Energy attributes, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, cost support of imported soybeans, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on various industries and commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors [9][12]. - In the short - term, the market is volatile, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each commodity, such as short - term holding, waiting for opportunities to enter the market, or hedging operations [12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels have launched military operations. The US is considering sending troops to the Middle East, and there are also negotiations between the US and Iran [9]. - China's economic data shows positive trends. From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [9]. - The Chinese government is promoting the development of the service industry and strengthening financial risk prevention and control [9]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to wait and see due to the situation in the US - Iran conflict and focus on the capital's ability to support the market. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with some sectors performing well, but the market turnover has reached a new low this year [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The situation in Iran may still have variables. Differentiate the impact of capital and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep thinking strategy. The money market is balanced and loose, and the economic data is positive. Pay attention to the PMI data this month and the possibility of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for rolled products has declined in some downstream industries, but the export and the orders of steel mills are acceptable. The supply of steel mills is increasing slightly, and the cost of raw materials is strongly supported. The short - term market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options and wait for opportunities to short at high prices [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The price increase is mainly due to the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the market sentiment is high, but there is a risk of price decline if the sentiment premium fades [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The possibility of manganese - silicon production cuts in April is high, but the endogenous motivation for production cuts is insufficient. It is recommended to short after the price rises. Silicon - iron may rise further due to the sentiment of manganese - silicon, but the view of shorting at high prices remains unchanged [18]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try to buy on dips for far - month contracts. The short - term price fluctuations are affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy prices. The supply of soda ash is slightly reduced due to short - term maintenance, and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines is increasing [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - The short - term copper price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation has signs of easing but still has high uncertainty, and the accelerating inventory depletion provides some support for copper prices [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is affected by the disturbance of the ore end, and the sentiment is strong. It is a variety with a strong fundamental and solid logic in the non - ferrous sector. There is an opportunity to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon continues to oscillate without obvious supply - demand drivers, and it is advisable to operate within a range and sell wide - straddle options. Polysilicon is in a weak oscillation, and caution is required in operation [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level due to the impact of external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The overall cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the crude oil market and the USDA cotton planting report [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price oscillates and rebounds due to the supply pressure and the increase in import costs. The global sugar supply surplus is shrinking, and the domestic sugar price is supported by the inverted import profit [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the egg price increase slows down, and the market still has an upward expectation, but the inventory is high, and the futures market maintains a bearish view [33]. 3.5.4 Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the market will continue to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the sales situation in the sales areas [34]. 3.5.5 Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live - stock inventory is expected to decline [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and the supply risk is increasing. The market is concerned about the resumption of navigation in the strait. The price of crude oil has risen [35]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The domestic fuel oil will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The price of polyolefins is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cuts are expanding, and the short - term trend is strong, but the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the raw materials are increasing. Although it is affected by synthetic rubber and is slightly strong, it is necessary to be cautious in unilateral chasing. Hold the strategy of narrowing the RU - NR spread [40]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The current price is mainly driven by the cost and may still have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the energy price fluctuations and the war situation [41]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term. Pay attention to the supply and transportation of methanol in Iran [42]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range oscillation strategy. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict [43]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to decrease rapidly [44]. 3.6.9 PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the increase in ethylene - based costs caused by the Iran war. The actual production cuts are less than expected, and there is a risk of a callback. It is advisable to be cautious [45]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost of the polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price, and the supply is shrinking, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [46]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG has risen significantly due to the US - Iran war. It is expected to maintain a high - level and high - volatility state, and investors should be cautious [47]. 3.6.12 Pulp - The port inventory of pulp is increasing, the import cost is falling, and the market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to the inventory situation and the price increase of finished products [48]. 3.6.13 Logs - The supply of logs is expected to decrease in the short term, and the price may rise steadily. Pay attention to the downstream demand and the port arrival volume [50]. 3.6.14 Urea - For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the cost increase and the rise of agricultural product prices. For the near - month contracts, follow the policy. The spot market is in a tight balance [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with improvements in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises started to replenish inventory, showing signs of recovery in the Chinese enterprise sector. However, due to the turbulent world political situation in March, the rhythm of industrial enterprise profits remains to be observed [22][23]. - The short - term cost support for steel prices is difficult to decline significantly, and terminal demand is neutral. Steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the Middle East situation on steel exports needs to be noted [2][31]. - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to face greater pressure of oversupply in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. - The Middle East situation is still tense, which suppresses the prices of some assets such as copper and US stocks, while increasing the risk premium of oil prices [4][6][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this channel will face "severe measures" [11]. - The Senate hearing of Fed Chairman nominee Wash will be held as early as the week of April 13. The short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and silver is expected to be weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The market is worried about the escalation of the US military's ground operation, the risk appetite is low, and the US dollar index remains high [3][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the Houthi armed forces attacked important Israeli military targets. The short - term US stock market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][18][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year. The Middle East situation has deteriorated, and the stock index is still under pressure [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay close attention to the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market is running steadily and strongly. The overall supply - demand pattern of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream's ability to accept prices is limited. It is necessary to focus on changes in the demand side [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February. The short - term steel price is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2][29][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to be in surplus in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports in February were 270,500 tons. The US cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. The short - term external cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [38][42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US has finalized the biofuel blending quotas for 2026 - 2027. Palm oil prices are strongly supported, and soybean oil is expected to gradually get out of the undervalued range and be in a volatile and strengthening pattern next week [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export sales in the week ending March 19 were in line with expectations. Corn prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [48][49][50]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume decreased last week. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. It is recommended to view soybean meal from a volatile perspective for the time being [51][52]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, reaching a new high. The copper price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the domestic positive arbitrage layout [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - EnergyX started a lithium production facility in Texas. The lithium ore supply is tight, and the demand for power is not pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [57][58][59]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East situation has led to a shortage of sulfuric acid in the Chilean mining industry. The lead price is expected to continue to grind at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][63]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price rebounded last week. The overseas zinc ore supply is tightened, and the domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and take profit on long positions at high prices [65][66]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium were in a low - level volatile pattern last week. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and take profit on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy at high prices [67][68][69]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and overseas tin inventories decreased last week. The supply of tin ore is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of major producing areas and the realization of demand growth [71][72][73]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Middle East conflict has entered the fourth week, and the oil price risk premium remains high. The short - term oil price is affected by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation [74][75]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price was in a volatile and weak pattern last week. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern next week, and it is necessary to be cautious before the geopolitical situation is clear [76]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [77][78]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene futures rose due to the tense Middle East situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to reduce inventory in April and May and continue to run strongly [79][80]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in the first two months of 2026. The spot container freight rate has loosened, and the far - month contract is supported by oil prices and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a volatile thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [81][82].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main asset volatility is too restrained, and the stock and bond markets are under - priced. There are short - term bearish warnings for the equity market, bond market, and valuation - type metals, which have been fully realized in the market last week [12]. - Although the selling sentiment has slightly eased based on the hope of peace talks, the geopolitical situation is still deteriorating, and the risk of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing non - linearly over time. The key to judging macro - risks is whether the logistics in the strait can be restarted [12]. - Gold initially has certain "cost - effectiveness" as its relative valuation has declined while volatility remains high. The gold - silver ratio is in an upward repair channel [16][19]. - In April, there will be a real rebound in CPI data. The inflation expectation is currently under - priced, and there will be a real inflation shock in April and May [20][21]. - When the oil price is above $100 per barrel, the 2 - year inflation expectation tends to be significantly higher than the linear regression level, and the transmission of the 2 - year inflation expectation to the 2 - year US Treasury yield is more significant [23][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Assets and Market High - Frequency Data 3.1.1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed - Income Weekly Performance**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.43% on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 4.82bp; the 10 - year German bond yield was 3.09% with a weekly change of 5.1bp [44][45]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [52]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds with Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Yields**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds, and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [61]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasuries, and the bid/subscription ratio of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [70][74]. 3.1.2. Exchange Rate Market - **Weekly Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 100.1510 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.51%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [79][81]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Treasury Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between the US and G7 countries, and the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [82]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [91]. - **Monthly Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and China's import and export year - on - year data [96]. - **High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury bonds, and the DR007 and Hibor 7 - day interest rates [104]. 3.1.3. Commodities - **Weekly Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil reached $113 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 3.61%; London gold spot was $4494, with a weekly change of 0.04% [122][124]. - **Price Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the energy - chemical and ferrous metal industrial chains [125]. - **Macro - Commodity High - Frequency Data**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories [139][142]. 3.1.4. Overseas Equities - **Weekly Performance of Global Major Indexes and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index was 6368.85 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of - 2.12%. The S&P energy index had a weekly increase of 6.22%, while the S&P communication index had a weekly decrease of 7.17% [147][152]. - **Weekly Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style had a weekly decline of 3.76%, and the US small - cap value style had a weekly increase of 0.46% [153][155]. - **Tracking of Best PE and EPS of US Stock Sectors**: Compare the current and pre - 1Q Best PE and EPS coordinates of 11 US stock sectors [158]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS Year - on - Year Trends of Major Indexes**: Analyze the EPS year - on - year trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indexes [163]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX Index and the ICE Bond Volatility MOVE Index [170]. - **Tracking of US Stock Market Factors**: Track the total return performance of US stock market factors YTW (Year - to - Date) [179]. 3.1.5. Cryptocurrencies - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets**: Track the Bitcoin futures main contract, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [181][182]. 3.1.6. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - **High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Yen Carry Trade System**: Include the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3 - month volatility [189][191]. 3.2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and FICC Views - **Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights**: In the fifth week, there is hope for peace talks, but the real risks are still accumulating. The probability of a cease - fire between the US and Iran in April has dropped to 38%. The Strait of Hormuz is still under substantial blockade, and the risk of supply disruption is increasing [11]. - **FICC Asset Views**: - **US Dollar**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price and risk sentiment, with support at 99.0 and an upper target of 104.5. In the long term, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, with an annual range of 96 - 108, and an upward risk [42]. - **Non - US Exchange Rates**: Most currencies in the G10 and Asian currency groups are undervalued against the US dollar. In the long term, attention should be paid to the change in geopolitical pricing [42]. - **10 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish, with a target of 4.45% reached. After considering the support at 4.35%, it is expected to remain strong. In the long term, the central rate of the 10 - year US Treasury is expected to be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and an upper target of 4.65% [42]. - **2 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish. The 10 - 2 spread may face resistance at around 55bp, with a preliminary target of 30bp. In the long term, the support is around 3.20%, and the upper target is 3.68% [42]. - **London Gold Spot**: In the short term, it can be speculated for a rebound under high volatility, but a trend increase requires time to digest the high volatility. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with buying cost - effectiveness [42]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: It is in an upward repair channel [42]. 3.3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum**: Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, and the economic surprise indexes of the US, Europe, and China [199][203]. - **Financial Conditions**: Analyze the central bank's balance sheet and the financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet and the G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP [207]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Include the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue items, and the government's debt - to - GDP ratio [214][219]. - **Employment Market**: Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, and ADP data [222]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Analyze the breakdown of US inflation data, core drivers, and inflation expectations [229]. - **Consumption Demand**: Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and housing mortgage applications [237][242]. - **Cycle Positioning**: Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator, ISM PMI, and manufacturing new orders [259]. - **Credit Cycle**: Track the US credit situation, including SLOOS corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [272]. - **Transportation and Logistics**: Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping volumes and port freight data [278][281][284]. - **Real Estate Market**: Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indexes, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [296][300]. - **Eurozone**: Analyze the Eurozone's macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength, including deficit rates, inflation, and consumer confidence [305][313][322].