证券代码：002820 证券简称：桂发祥 公告编号：2025-022 天津桂发祥十八街麻花食品股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 的净利润 比上年同期下降：113.20%-122.01% 亏损：300 万元–500 万元 扣除非经常性损益后 盈利：2,154.07 万元 的净利润 比上年同期下降：113.93%-123.21% 项 目 本报告期 上年同期 亏损：300 万元–500 万元 归属于上市公司股东 盈利：2,271.96 万元 天津桂发祥十八街麻花食品股份有限公司 基本每股收益 亏损：0.02 元/股–0.03 元/股 盈利：0.11 元/股 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告相关财务数据未经过会计师事务所审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 其中，直营渠道整体客流量、客单价均有所下滑；经销渠道因本地市场部分景区关闭改 造导致收入下滑，新开拓市场效益尚未体现。销量下降、产量降低导致分摊的固定制造 费用提升，单位成本增加，整体毛利率下降。 比大幅增长；旅游景区、交通枢纽及大型展会的广告投入同比增加；购置及新 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.7.14 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 铝锭：淡季小幅累库 铝价区间整理 Ø 逻辑：上周铝价偏强震荡。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。 美联储理事沃勒周四重申了本月降息的可能性，投资者预计年底前美联储将降息50个基点。基本面来看，据SMM数据， 截至上周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万吨/年，运行总产能8857万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周下 调0.05个百分点至79.92%，其中山东、广西地区出现部分企业检修，运行产能有所下滑。海外消息几内亚要求今后50% 的铝土矿出口必须由悬挂几内亚国旗的船舶运输，政府已成立本国航运公司专门负责铝土矿运输。2025年截至目前，几 内亚铝土矿出口同比增长37%。截至6月底氧化铝企业厂内库存累库8.1万吨。需求端高温淡季、铝价高企、利润空间不 足、下游需求疲软等因素影响下，上周铝加工行业开工环比上周再度下降0.1个百分点至58.6%。据SMM统计，7月14 日国内主流消费地电解 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

证券代码：600714 证券简称：金瑞矿业 编号：临2025-041号 青海金瑞矿业发展股份有限公司 2025年第二季度主要生产经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第3号——行业信息披露》的相关 要求，现将青海金瑞矿业发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025年第二季度 生产经营数据公告如下： 注：本期公司主营业务产品碳酸锶产销量和销售收入同比增长，主要系市场价格上涨及上年 同期进行例行停产检修所致；金属锶产品产销量及销售收入同比减少，主要系公司结合市场变化 对产销结构进行调整所致。 产品名称 产量 销量 销售收入 本期数（吨） 同比变动 （%） 本期数（吨） 同比变动 （%） 本期数（万元） 同比变动 （%） 碳酸锶 5,330.43 10.03 3,482.82 33.54 4,246.82 129.68 金属锶 270.85 -49.81 262.96 -39.47 1,382.65 -42.40 铝锶合金 881.51 4.61 826.49 -11. ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10390 | | -210 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 134679 | -5134 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -16805 | | 262 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 9007 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 1594 | 0 | | | | | 现货市场 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 6 | | | 4.3 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.2 | | | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) -0.01 广东红枣特级价格(日,元/公 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/7/14 | 莫骁雄 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0019413 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上月 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/7 | 2 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-14 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 12.43 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.28 / 4.28 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）53 / 53 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 15.93 / 5.43 | | 资产负债率(%) | 13.3% | | 市盈率 | 33.59 | | 第一大股东 | 鹿有忠 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 有友食品(603697) 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 会员渠道放量驱动增长，业绩有望保持高增 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，显示 2025 年上半年公司实现 营业收入 7.46-7.98 亿元，同比增长 40.91％-50.77%，单 Q2 实现收 ...

重要内容提示： ? 本期业绩预告适用情形：净利润实现扭亏为盈。 证券代码：603609 证券简称：禾丰股份 公告编号：2025-068 债券代码：113647 债券简称：禾丰转债 禾丰食品股份有限公司 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ? 经禾丰食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算，预 计 2025 年 半 年 度 实 现 归 属 于 母 公 司 所 有 者 的 净 利 润 为 19,000.00 万 元 到 ? 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 润为 11,500 万元到 18,500 万元。 （三）本期业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）归属于母公司所有者的净利润：-3,405.27 万元。归属于母公司所有 者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-3,233.46 万元。 利润为 11,500 万元到 18,500 万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 的净利润为 19,000.00 万元到 26,000 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 7 月 14 日 情绪扰动临尾 锂价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 一、市场数据 | 指标 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/4 | 变动量 | 变动幅度 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进口锂原矿：1.3%-2.2% | 113 | 110 | 3.00 | 2.73% | 美元/吨 | | 进口锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 650 | 644 | 6.00 | 0.93% | 美元/吨 | | 国产锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 650 | 644 | 6 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | 即期汇率：美元兑人民币 | 7.171 | 7. ...