Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing clear industry differentiation, with a notable contrast between the steadily rising cyclical "five flowers" and the weakening high dividend yield sector, reflecting the competition for funds driven by technological growth prospects and domestic demand policy stimulation [1]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials have seen a company adjustment ratio of 200%, 171%, and 250% respectively, indicating a positive outlook due to fiscal infrastructure efforts and demand-side stimulus [2]. - The non-bank sector has a company adjustment ratio of 1200%, highlighting the importance of short-term insurance premium growth and mid-term investment income enhancement for performance [2]. - In the technology sector, the adjustment ratios for electric new energy, telecommunications, and electronics are 133%, 163%, and 130% respectively, with a focus on clear performance growth trends in satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, storage devices, optical modules, and circuit boards [2]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives - The core of the physical re-inflation logic is based on three perspectives: price increases must be accompanied by liquidity activation, supply clearing due to anti-involution, and demand-side stimulation [1].

和讯投顾陆润凯表示，至于大盘这里还有ETF这边在放量，那市场的节奏还是被控制住的，游资也消停 了，题材全线熄火，所以除了贵金属有色以外的赛道更多还是以轮动为主，指数也是继续震荡，我们尽 量不要随随便便的去追涨，做好防守反击就可以了。比如说在明天盘中出现，特别是早盘出现急速回打 的时候，再博弈做这种做t的机会更好。 黄金白银大涨，之前我们讲贵金属撑起了大a的半边天，看来我是说错了，今天市场的一整片天全是他 们撑起的，其余的基本都在调整将近3万亿的成交量，但是那些资金眼里面仿佛只有涨价这一件事儿， 现在导致了这种情况，核心还是美元在全球资本的地位正在快速下降。所以现在大家会放弃美元的抱团 导致继续下跌，另外的贵金属就开始水涨船高了，那还有就是资金认为今年美联储还是有降息预期的， 那关于整个黄金、有色、贵金属啊要不要继续的跟进，你只要观察美元的走势就行了，他们是跷跷板。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.57% [1] - A total of 1,739 stocks rose, with 84 hitting the daily limit up, while 3,640 stocks fell [2] Stock Performance - Among the rising stocks, 169 had gains exceeding 7%, 105 gained between 5-7%, and 252 rose between 3-5% [3] - Conversely, 2,912 stocks saw declines of 0-3%, 558 fell by 3-5%, and 58 dropped by more than 7% [3] - Resource stocks surged, particularly gold stocks, with Sichuan Gold achieving four consecutive limit-ups, and both Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold achieving three consecutive limit-ups [3] Sector Highlights - Oil and gas stocks collectively rose, with Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhongman Petroleum hitting the daily limit up, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) increasing over 6% to reach a new high [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector strengthened, with silver stocks achieving seven consecutive limit-ups, and China Aluminum hitting the daily limit up, marking a 16-year high [5] - The coal sector also saw gains, with Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Black Cat both hitting the daily limit up [7] Declines - The pharmaceutical and medical stocks faced adjustments, with Bibet and Baipusai dropping over 10% [8] Trading Volume and Activity - The total trading volume reached approximately 29,922.93 billion, with a notable increase in trading activity for major ETFs, including the CSI 300 ETF from Huatai-PB, which exceeded 30 billion in trading volume [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.57% [2] - A total of 1,739 stocks rose, 84 stocks hit the daily limit, and 3,640 stocks fell [3] Sector Performance - Resource stocks surged, with gold stocks leading the gains; Sichuan Gold achieved four consecutive limit-ups, while Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold recorded three consecutive limit-ups [4] - Oil and gas stocks collectively rose, with Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhongman Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation increasing over 6% to reach a new high [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector strengthened, with Silver Nonferrous achieving seven consecutive limit-ups, and China Aluminum hitting the daily limit, marking a 16-year high [6] - The coal sector also saw gains, with Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Black Cat hitting the daily limit [7] Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical and medical stocks adjusted, with Bibete and Baipusais falling over 10% [8] - The market experienced at least three significant drops during the day, suggesting an unseen force controlling market momentum [8] - Several broad-based ETFs saw increased trading volume, with the HuShen 300 ETF from Huatai-PineBridge exceeding 30 billion yuan in trading volume, and other ETFs like the HuShen 300 ETF from E Fund and the CSI 500 ETF also surpassing 20 billion yuan [8] Policy Insights - According to a report from CITIC Securities, past bull markets have seen overheating leading to cooling policies; the current bull market since September 24 has maintained a positive policy tone, with periodic long-term policies to regulate market entry [9] - Recent policies, such as the increase in risk factors for insurance funds and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in monetary policy tool rates, aim to cool the market without altering the overall positive trend [9] - The proactive cooling measures are intended to manage the bull market's pace, preventing irrational exuberance and fostering a gradual bull market, which is noted as the slowest bull market in A-share history [9] ETF Performance - Gold ETF (Hua Xia, product code: 518850) saw a 5-day increase of 8.41%, with a net subscription of 350 million yuan [11] - Gold Stocks ETF (product code: 159562) increased by 18.74% over five days, with a net subscription of 510 million yuan [12] - Non-ferrous Metals ETF (product code: 516650) rose by 8.99% in five days, with a net subscription of 770 million yuan [13] - Public Utilities ETF (product code: 159301) had a modest increase of 0.72% over five days, with no net subscription changes [14]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on January 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index slightly up, while the ChiNext Index experienced a small decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 13,655 billion yuan [1] - Resource stocks led the market, particularly gold stocks, with Sichuan Gold achieving four consecutive trading limits, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising over 6% to a new high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well included precious metals, oil and gas extraction, steel, combustible ice, rare earth permanent magnets, and coal [2] - Conversely, sectors that saw declines included photovoltaic equipment, medical services, education, recombinant proteins, avian influenza, and Sora [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisors, the A-share market is expected to continue a volatile consolidation pattern in February, with support from policies and valuations, while facing pressure from profit verification. They recommend focusing on cyclical sectors, technology growth, and defensive assets [3] - CITIC Construction highlighted the booming commercial aerospace industry, particularly the advancements in reusable rocket technology, which are expected to drive significant growth in the satellite communication market, projected to grow from $25.2 billion in 2025 to $83 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [3] Company Updates - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced a price increase of approximately 15% for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks, marking the first price hike in about twenty years. This adjustment reflects the high demand for AI computing resources and the increasing scarcity of supply [4] - Haizhou Intelligent, a subsidiary of Suzhou Keda, announced a price adjustment for certain products, with increases ranging from 10% to 30%, effective March 1, 2026. This adjustment affects a range of products including storage series, front-end cameras, and servers [8]

2026年以来，A股市场依旧火热，与2025年极致的成长风格有所差异的是，当前顺周期板块强势崛起，有色、油气等接连冲高，或成为本轮春季躁动最耀眼 的板块。 1月28日，油气、有色板块再度领涨，"金铜含量"领先的有色ETF汇添富（159652）大涨3.72%，油气ETF汇添富（159309）大涨3.24%，再创历史新高。 | 同指数ETF仅显示最活跃的一(2 ■ 成交额 > 0.0 亿 ■ 估算规模 > 0.0 亿 ■ 跟踪指数 | | | --- | --- | | 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | 159652 主 有色ETF汇添富 | 2.147 0.077 3.72% 0.37% 3.05亿 | | 159309 主 油气ETF汇添富 | 1.370 0.043 3.24% 0.32% 5274.38万 | 值得注意的是，顺周期板块的春季躁动并非是偶尔，而是"全球风云变幻、A股盈利修复预期、资金抢跑复苏预期"等多重因素催化的结果： 从全球宏观视角来看，康波萧条期内，美元信用裂痕扩张，叠加地缘冲突频繁涌现，大宗商品的货币属性和安全属性得到增强，商品的超级周期启动！金银 ...

上周A股市场呈现结构性分化格局，宽基指数涨跌不一，资金偏好显著向中小盘、热门成长赛道倾斜。 行业上，建筑材料、地产、军工转强，化工、有色行情强化，银行、非银与通信指数回落。 近期中央汇金大额减持ETF稳定了权重指数，价值股走势偏弱，但市场交易热度不减，科技成长方向加 速轮动，实现了稳指数又不打压市场热度。 我们认为，资本市场监管越严格、审慎，反而有助于提高中国市场的可投资性，也更有助于中国资本市 场走的更长远，利于更多投资人分享转型发展与改革红利。无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革、经济结构 转型仍是构成转型行情的三大关键动力。 投资方向上，新兴科技是主线，价值股也有春天，关注细分龙头与A500指数。具体来看：1）科技成长 方向：全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛上升期，推动半导体设备需求快速增长，全产业链迎来涨价 潮，可关注港股互联网/电子半导体/通信/军工，以及具备全球竞争优势的制造业出海（电力设备/机械 设备/汽车及零部件）等。2）非银金融方向：受益居民存款搬家与财富管理需求增长，资本市场改革提 振市场风险偏好，可关注保险/券商等。3）顺周期方向：估值与持仓处于低位，景气底部边际改善，受 益扩内需政策部署，可关注 ...

近期，中央汇金大额减持ETF稳定了权重指数，价值股走势偏弱，但市场交易热度不减，科技成长方向 加速轮动，实现了稳指数又不打压市场热度。 长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表示，资本市场监管越严格、审慎，反而有助于提高中国市场的可投 资性，也更有助于中国资本市场走的更长远，更多投资人分享转型发展与改革红利。无风险收益下沉、 资本市场改革、经济结构转型仍是构成转型行情的三大关键动力。 投资方向上，汪立认为，新兴科技是主线，价值股也有春天，关注细分龙头与A500指数。 具体来看：1）科技成长方向：全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛上升期，推动半导体设备需求快速增 长，全产业链迎来涨价潮，可关注港股互联网/电子半导体/通信/军工，以及具备全球竞争优势的制造业 出海（电力设备/机械设备/汽车及零部件）等。2）非银金融方向：受益居民存款搬家与财富管理需求 增长，资本市场改革提振市场风险偏好，可关注保险/券商等。3）顺周期方向：估值与持仓处于低位， 景气底部边际改善，受益扩内需政策部署，可关注食品/零售/旅游服务/酒店，以及全球局势动荡与美元 信用下降下的涨价周期品种（如有色/化工/石油石化）等。 长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表 ...

据万得数据（下同），2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，较前值回落 0.5 个点。 2022-2025 年营业收入年度同比分别为 5.9%、1.1%、2.1%、1.1%。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 同比转正，新旧分化：2025 年工业企业利润数据点评 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，略低于 2024 年的 2.1%，持平于 2023 年，营收同比连续 3 年 在 1%-3%的低位区间内徘徊。边际变化看，12 月单月营收同比下降 3.2%，连续 3 个月同比 ...

报告导读： 25Q4 新经济增长中枢抬升，景气线索扩散。 AI 与出海继续推动新兴科技景 气中枢抬升，而顺周期板块多数受益供给受限与下游需求转型带来的涨价，重视电子 / 出 海制造 / 保险等盈利预期上修的低拥挤滞涨板块。 新经济景气中枢上移，盈利改善范围扩散。 2025 年四季度经济转型加快，尽管新旧经济景气分化的结构延续，但新经济景气中枢明显上移，并由 AI 向出 海、资源品、服务消费等更多领域扩散。新兴科技产业链呈现出供需两旺的特征，内部细分涨价赛道明显增多。结合宏观数据，我们提示把握四季度盈利增长 的四个结构特征： 1 ）新兴经济仍是四季度业绩主要高增领域。科技服务业等第三产业用电量在 25Q4 高增，并带动全社会用电增速在 9 月后明显上行，这 与工业增加值下行趋势背离明显，新经济主导并拉动经济复苏； 2 ）中下游制造盈利占比提升。通胀整体改善且新经济成本传导顺畅， CPI-PPI 剪刀差扩 张， PPI 内部中下游价格更强，工业企业利润向 TMT 、装备制造与有色化工等行业集中； 3 ）大中盘业绩增长弹性更大。 PMI 改善，且结构上大型企业景 气占优趋势延续，企业生产经营预期与订单分项改善明显； ...