Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of sector rotation in the A-share market, suggesting that a diverse market with multiple sectors performing well is essential for sustainable growth. The current market environment, driven by incremental capital and favorable economic conditions, requires a focus on sector expansion rather than simple high-to-low switching strategies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in growth sectors indicate increased volatility and high-level oscillation, prompting discussions on whether to switch from high to low positions [1][3]. - The market's structural differentiation and concentrated consensus need to be digested and consolidated, with a recommendation for a rotational approach to manage rhythm fluctuations [3][6]. - The current market is characterized by an "incremental market" where capital behavior has shifted from "moving house" in a stock market to "expanding" in an incremental market, making the "expansion logic" more applicable [3][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include Hong Kong internet, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, new consumption, and "anti-involution" & cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [11][20][36]. - The Hong Kong internet sector is highlighted for its potential rebound, driven by external liquidity and AI expansion, with significant room for growth compared to A-share TMT sectors [11][14]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from upcoming five-year planning meetings, historically showing strong performance leading up to such events [17][20]. Group 3: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a reduction in crowding, with a notable release of pressure and a shift towards commercialization, leading to improved performance from leading companies [24][25]. - The sector is witnessing a surge in product approvals and international licensing deals, indicating a strengthening global competitive position for domestic pharmaceutical companies [24][25]. Group 4: New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is positioned for growth due to technological breakthroughs and a focus on "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to attract funds seeking flexible returns [26][29]. - The sector's recovery is supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential for performance stabilization [29][30]. Group 5: New Consumption Trends - New consumption sectors are anticipated to benefit from seasonal catalysts and improved economic outlooks, with a focus on structural changes driven by the rise of Generation Z [31][34]. - The current low crowding levels in new consumption sectors present opportunities for rotation and potential growth as consumer trends evolve [31][34]. Group 6: Anti-Involution and Cyclical Sectors - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a long-term theme that will influence various sectors, particularly those with historical low profitability and capital expenditure [36][37]. - The report highlights the importance of evaluating sectors based on their willingness to participate in anti-involution efforts, with a focus on traditional industries like steel, glass, and new energy supply chains [36][37].

Economic Outlook - The overall economy is expected to stabilize with structural reforms accelerating, supported by continuous fiscal efforts and a recovery in the real estate sector [3][11][19] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is anticipated to drive a rebound in PPI, benefiting industries such as coal and photovoltaics [5][30] - The technology sector is experiencing a significant surge, with new technologies like AI expected to empower a growth cycle lasting over a decade [3][6][45] Old Economy Insights - The "反内卷" policy is likely to push PPI to a turning point, with historical data indicating that PPI recoveries correlate with economic cycles [5][30] - During PPI upturns, stock market trends generally rise, with the greatest elasticity observed during the initial stages of PPI recovery [35][37] New Economy Insights - The current technology sector trend is still in its early stages, with historical patterns showing that industry trends require a conducive macroeconomic environment and liquidity [6][45] - Emerging technologies such as AI, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and quantum technology are at a critical juncture, with potential for explosive growth in the next two years [6][45] Funding Landscape - In a low-interest-rate environment, there is a significant shift of household savings towards equity assets, with the current allocation in stocks and funds at 15%, compared to 40% in developed markets [7][19] - Public fund issuance is expected to see a turning point as net asset values recover, with a historical correlation indicating that 80% of funds reaching positive net values leads to increased issuance [7][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on three main lines: old economy sectors benefiting from PPI recovery, new economy sectors driven by AI and overseas expansion, and consumer sectors emphasizing emotional consumption [8][45] - Specific sectors to watch include metals, coal, and new energy for the old economy, while AI hardware and applications are key for the new economy [8][45]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced narrow fluctuations and collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%, Shenzhen Index down 0.04%, and ChiNext Index down 0.16% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,494 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 8,172 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,400 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as excavators, coal mining, photolithography machines, major infrastructure in the West, and industrial enterprises saw notable gains, while sectors like humanoid robots, reducers, and Xiaomi's automotive sector experienced significant declines [1] - The decline in the robotics sector was influenced by Elon Musk's denial of Tesla's Optimus robot receiving 10,000 orders, leading to a pullback in previously strong-performing robotics stocks [1] Investment Focus - There is a continued positive outlook on the computing hardware sector, with a potential shift in market focus. The computing hardware sector has shown resilience during market downturns, indicating strong market preference [7] - The semiconductor industry also performed well, suggesting that these sectors are part of the broader AI industry chain, with computing hardware showing better growth potential due to high demand from North American tech giants and local internet companies [7] Consumer Sector Insights - The tourism and hotel sector surged in anticipation of the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, reflecting market reactions to seasonal demand [8] - With retail sales growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August, the necessity for incremental stimulus policies is increasing, with a focus likely on consumer spending, particularly in services like tourism, education, and gaming [8] Commodity Outlook - The long-term investment value in the non-ferrous metals sector remains high, despite recent pullbacks. The potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year could support rising prices for gold and copper [9] - Current gold prices have reached historical highs, and copper prices have shown a breakthrough trend, indicating that price increases will eventually translate into improved corporate earnings and stock performance [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance today, with the Hang Seng Index closing flat at 26,545.1 points and a total turnover of HKD 3,768.12 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.17% to 9,472.35 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.37% to 6,294.42 points. For the week, the Hang Seng Index gained 0.59%, the China Enterprises Index rose by 1.15%, and the Tech Index saw a 5.09% increase [1]. Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.19% to HKD 21.6, contributing 4.77 points to the Hang Seng Index. The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays have driven demand for gaming stocks, with strong expectations for the Golden Week based on nearly full hotel bookings [2][4]. - Other notable blue-chip performers included China Hongqiao (01378) up 4.67% to HKD 26.46, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) up 4.22% to HKD 42.46, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) fell by 2.62% to HKD 35, dragging the index down by 1.74 points [2]. Sector Highlights Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw significant gains, with Melco International Development (00200) up 6.6%, Sands China (01928) up 6.19%, and Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.02%. Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for August reached MOP 22.16 billion, marking a new monthly high, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [3][4]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks rebounded, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising by 6.13% to HKD 35.68, Lingbao Gold (03330) up 3.98% to HKD 16.46, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.76% to HKD 29.08. The price of spot gold has stabilized above USD 3,650 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks performed well, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 6.51% to HKD 10.63, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 1.42% to HKD 38.46. Recent investigations into overproduction in Inner Mongolia are expected to curb excess supply [5][6]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector showed mixed results, with Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) down 6.21% while DCH Holdings (00179) rose by 5.78%. Recent rumors regarding Tesla's robot orders were denied by Elon Musk, but the Chinese government is pushing for the application of humanoid robots in various industries [7]. Notable Stock Movements - Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B (02595) debuted with a remarkable increase of 106.47% to HKD 42.1. The company focuses on developing new treatment solutions for tumors and autoimmune diseases [8]. - Hongteng Precision (06088) surged by 21.44% to HKD 5.89, benefiting from Nvidia's investment in Intel for AI infrastructure [9]. - Cloudfin Financial (00376) rose by 10.55% to HKD 6.39 after appointing a former Ant Group executive to lead its Web3 development [10]. - Weimob Group (02013) increased by 10% to HKD 2.86 following a significant share placement [11]. - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw a rise of 9.51% to HKD 37.3, with the company announcing full production capacity for its energy storage cells [12]. - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) reached a new high, increasing by 8.55% to HKD 61.6, driven by interest in hollow core fiber technology [13][14].

Steel Industry - The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is strengthening, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches, with high demand for plate steel and a low recovery in rebar demand. On the supply side, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to a decrease in overall supply. Plate steel supply remains high, while rebar production has significantly decreased, alleviating supply pressure. Overall, with the arrival of the peak demand season and stricter implementation of industrial policies, the supply-demand contradiction and cost support for steel are expected to gradually strengthen. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to continue a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Iron Ore - The expectations for supply and demand are improving, enhancing price support for iron ore. Steel mills are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in iron ore demand. On the supply side, overseas mine shipments have significantly increased, resulting in a moderate growth in overall supply. Iron ore inventories are stabilizing at low levels, indicating minimal inventory pressure. Overall, with the continuous warming of macro policy expectations and the recovery of downstream demand, the outlook for iron ore supply and demand is expected to continue improving, with prices likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased by 1.9% to 84.7%, with daily raw coal output reaching 1.9 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 44,000 tons. The demand side shows strong rigid support, driven by increased washing plant operating rates and a rebound in iron water production. However, the market is still focused on "anti-involution," and the space for further increases in coal mine operating rates is limited due to strong safety supervision policies. Overall, the coking coal supply-demand structure may be optimized, maintaining a trend of fluctuating strength [2]. Shipping Industry - The European shipping index is currently showing a weak trend. On the spot market, major shipping companies are continuously lowering their quotes, with the average price for a large container around $1,650, indicating a slight discount to the market. The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, with demand entering a low season and a lack of new shipping volume. The average weekly capacity in September has increased by 16% year-on-year, but the scale of empty classes in October is not sufficient to alleviate the oversupply situation. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the index is expected to continue running weakly in the short term [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices have continued to decline. Domestic methanol capacity utilization and output have unexpectedly decreased this week. However, the operating rates of traditional demand products have mostly increased, with significant recoveries in DME and MTBE. The market is expected to maintain a trend of inventory reduction due to pre-holiday stocking and upstream companies actively reducing inventory to avoid accumulation risks during the holiday. Overall, the methanol market is expected to continue a downward trend in the short term, with some support from supply-side reductions and recovering downstream operating rates [4]. Urea - Urea prices have shown a downward trend this week, with capacity utilization and weekly output increasing. The upcoming recovery in production is expected to exceed maintenance, leading to a significant increase in daily output. However, domestic urea demand remains tepid, and the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with companies facing challenges related to inventory and costs. Without policy changes, urea futures prices are likely to continue fluctuating downward in the short term [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Soda ash and glass prices are experiencing a downward trend. The overall supply of soda ash is decreasing slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.53%. The weekly output has dropped by 1.54 million tons. The glass market is stable, but demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual decline in production and sales. The overall supply pressure for soda ash remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly [5]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are showing a weak trend, influenced by the end of the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. and ongoing OPEC+ production increases. However, the inventory of asphalt plants and social stocks continues to decline, which may positively impact prices. The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to drive demand, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions face supply pressures [6][7]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are experiencing a downward trend, with average capacity utilization at 81.9%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased, and demand from downstream aluminum oxide enterprises remains stable. Overall, the caustic soda market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly due to increased supply and limited demand [8]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are declining, with limited demand from downstream sectors. Despite some replenishment activities, the overall purchasing momentum remains insufficient. The supply side is increasing due to more operational facilities, leading to a rise in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward [9]. Polyester - The polyester market is stable, with supply and demand remaining balanced. The operating rates of PTA and downstream polyester production have increased slightly, but overall demand remains below expectations. The inventory levels of PTA are at historical lows, indicating a tight supply situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost movements [10][11]. Nonferrous Metals - The copper market is influenced by the recent Fed rate cut, with domestic supply tightening due to maintenance at smelting plants. The market is closely monitoring consumption patterns leading up to the National Day holiday, with expectations of increased purchasing from large enterprises [14]. Agricultural Products - The oilseed market is under pressure due to high domestic soybean inventories and slow demand recovery. The cotton market is experiencing price pressure from low demand and high import levels, while the sugar market is facing downward pressure from increased production in India and Brazil [18][19]. Rubber - The rubber market is experiencing a weak trend, with increased imports and stable production levels. The demand from processing plants remains strong, but overall market sentiment is affected by macroeconomic factors [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not lead to the expected positive market reaction in the A-shares, resulting in a significant decline in major indices, indicating that good news can sometimes lead to negative market performance due to profit-taking and market adjustments [1][2]. Market Performance - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.64% to 3095.85 points. The total market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 763.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The sectors that saw net inflows included communication equipment, tourism, and engineering machinery, while sectors experiencing net outflows included non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and securities [1]. - The tourism, chip industry chain, and CPO sectors showed the highest gains, whereas non-ferrous metals, brokerage firms, insurance, banks, and liquor sectors faced the largest declines [1]. Market Dynamics - The market's initial positive reaction to the Fed's rate cut was followed by a sharp decline due to profit-taking as the rate cut was in line with expectations, leading to a sell-off after reaching near 3900 points [2][3]. - The significant trading volume of over 3 trillion yuan indicates a high level of trading activity, with profit-taking and accumulation of shares occurring simultaneously, reflecting a healthy market despite the decline [3]. Fund Behavior - Reports suggest that many thematic funds previously invested in innovative pharmaceuticals have recently experienced volatility, prompting some funds to switch strategies, which contributed to the market's sharp decline as they sought to adjust to reasonable price levels [3]. Future Outlook - With the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be some capital outflow, and the market's performance in the following days will be crucial to determine if a recovery is possible or if a defensive strategy will be necessary until after the holiday [3].

Economic Performance Overview - Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 4% year-on-year from January to August, with significant contributions from various sectors [1][2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a notable growth of 15.4%, accelerating by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 12.5%, contributing 23.6% to the overall industrial growth [1] Sector-Specific Growth - The coal industry reported a 12.4% increase in added value, maintaining a growth rate above 10% throughout the year [2] - The electronic industry experienced an 18.9% growth, marking a 3.4 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [1] - The non-tobacco and non-energy industrial sectors grew by 7.4%, indicating a diversification in industrial growth [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales in Yunnan reached 838.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight increase of 0.3%, with the first industry growing by 2.5% and the third industry declining by 0.5% [2] - The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries surged by 83% and 64.9% respectively, highlighting a shift towards greener industrial practices [2] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is stable, with high-quality development being actively pursued [3] - Challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain, necessitating further efforts to solidify economic recovery [3] - Future policies will focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to promote healthy economic development [3]

| 硅铁(SF51) | 54.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5728 | -38 | -0.65% | 5766 | 10 | 0.17% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM601) | 6000 | 5990 | 26.60% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 92 | 3260 | 2.90% | 47.10% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3168 | 30 | 30.20% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3420 | 3390 | 0.88% | 热卷(HC2601) | | | | | | 5.02% | 845 | 40 | 34.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 805 | -5 74% | 1735 | -100 | 163 ...

Industry and Company Insights - Real Estate Industry Commentary: The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the real estate sector continued its downward trend in August 2025, with expectations for more substantial policy measures in September [1] - Metal Industry Mid-Year Summary: The non-ferrous sector saw a net profit increase of 38%, highlighting the ongoing value of resource stocks [1] - Machinery Industry Weekly Report: The 28th edition of the manufacturing growth report noted that Oracle's RPO has increased to $455 billion, while Tesla is finalizing the design for Optimus V3 [1] - Electronics Industry Monthly Report: The power companies are experiencing a recovery in performance, with clear growth trends in the automotive and data center sectors [1] - Hanbell Precise Machinery (002158.SZ) Financial Report Commentary: The company is creating a new growth curve through its AIDC compressors and semiconductor vacuum pumps [1] - Zhongshen Power (001696.SZ) Financial Report Commentary: The company reported a 73% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter, actively positioning itself in the low-altitude economy [1] - China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (300470.SZ) Financial Report Commentary: As a leading manufacturer of mechanical seals, the company is expanding its international business to enhance growth opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, expected to be strong and volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot median implies 3 rate cuts this year. The short - term uncertainty of external risks has decreased, and the domestic easing expectation has increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term increase in upward macro - driving forces [2][3][4] - Different sectors have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the steel market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and production restrictions; the non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and economic trends; the energy and chemical market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory conditions; the agricultural product market is affected by factors such as production capacity regulation and demand changes [5][8][15][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dollar first fell and then rose. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth rates were lower than previous values and market expectations. The uncertainty of external risks decreased, and the domestic easing expectation increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased [2] - Equity index: Driven by sectors such as lithography machines, diversified finance, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be volatile. The real - world demand has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand contradiction has increased. However, due to the potential production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term steel market is likely to continue the volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decreased slightly. The rigid replenishment demand continued to be released, but the room for further growth in iron - water production is limited. The supply is generally at a high level, and the price should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply continued to rise slightly, and the prices are expected to continue the interval - oscillation [6][7] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was volatile at a high level. There is a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish mindset should be adopted, and short - term positive impacts from policies and news should be guarded against [7] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was volatile at a high level. The supply was stable, and the demand was difficult to increase significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, tax policy on the recycled copper market, and the Indonesian copper mine accident. However, the upward space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [8] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell. Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was cautious, and the profit - taking sentiment was strong. The rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the rise in copper prices, but the fundamentals are weak [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering the cost support, the short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward space is limited [10] - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 decreased significantly, but it is expected to recover. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation in the short - term, but the upward space is under pressure [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upper pressure range should be noted [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation due to the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the strengthening of the cost - side coking coal [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short - term due to the price increase of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells in the spot market and the strong policy expectation [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell on Wednesday. The market digested the Fed's interest rate cut decision and US inventory data. The oil price will pay more attention to subsequent inventory conditions, and there is still support below in the short - term [15] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the oil price and remained volatile. The demand has weakened significantly, and the upward space is limited. The follow - up increase amplitude relative to the oil price should be noted [16] - **PX**: The PX price followed the energy and chemical sector and rebounded slightly. It will remain in an oscillating pattern and wait for the changes in PTA devices [16] - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise slightly. The downstream start - up rate has recovered, but the terminal start - up rate is still limited. The price upward space is limited, but there is also support below. It is expected to be oscillating without a trend in the short - term [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol ended its continuous decline and rebounded slightly. The port inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [17] - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium - term [17] - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is rising, but there is also support for the price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [18] - **PP**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [18] - **LLDPE**: The supply has increased, and the demand has improved slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18] - **Urea**: The supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean crop is in the early harvesting stage, and the crop rating has declined for three consecutive weeks. The CBOT soybean market maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude [20][21] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. However, the supply - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and the price center of soybean meal is expected to rise [21] - **Oils**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the consumption support is limited. The high inventory of rapeseed oil is being continuously digested, and the market sentiment is strong [21] - **Palm Oil**: The domestic demand for palm oil is gradually weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The production in Malaysia has been affected by floods, but the subsequent increase in production and the decline in exports may limit the increase [22][23] - **Corn**: The new - season corn market is stable at the beginning. The futures expectation is slightly weak, but the risk of breaking the previous low is not high [23] - **Hogs**: The market supply of hogs is sufficient, and the price decline in some regions exceeds expectations. In the medium - term, the pig price may be under pressure from September to November, which may accelerate the market - based capacity reduction [23]