Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for aluminum continues to rise during the peak season, with signs of a turning point in aluminum ingot inventory [1] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may further support aluminum prices [6][11] - The aluminum processing sector is experiencing a recovery in operating rates, indicating a potential increase in demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2701.0 per ton, up $98.5 from the previous week, a 3.8% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21120.0 CNY per ton, up 425.0 CNY from the previous week, a 2.1% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21050.0 CNY per ton, up 370.0 CNY from the previous week, a 1.8% increase [23] 2. Production - In August 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 373.3 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 5.0 million tons [56] - The production of alumina in August 2025 was 773.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.8 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 56.5 million tons [56] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.35 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.89 CNY by 2026 [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 CNY for 2024, increasing to 1.27 CNY by 2026 [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.56 CNY by 2026 [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.72 CNY for 2024, increasing to 0.99 CNY by 2026 [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.27 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.07 CNY by 2026 [5] 4. Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 625,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1,000 tons [7] - The aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 132,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 750 tons [7] 5. Demand - The arrival of the traditional peak season has led to improved order conditions for most profile enterprises, with various downstream sectors showing varying degrees of recovery [7] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend on September 11, with the main contract for aluminum futures rising by 0.63% to 20,915.00 CNY/ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a significant cooling in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of approximately 910,000 jobs for August non-farm data, leading to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August increased by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which is significantly below the anticipated 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises are expected to continue increasing production due to high profit margins, with 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity being profitable in August [1] - The consumption of aluminum is expected to improve marginally as the traditional demand season begins, although rising aluminum prices may suppress downstream procurement [1] - As of September 8, aluminum ingot social inventory was 631,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from September 4, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 5,500 tons [1] Group 3 - New Lake Futures predicts that supply will continue to increase slightly, with consumption expected to improve marginally, supporting a strong aluminum price outlook [2]

Company Summary - Tianshan Aluminum Industry (SZ 002532) announced that as of the announcement date, Shihezi Jinlong Energy Industry Chain Co., Ltd. has pledged approximately 309 million shares, accounting for 33.9% of its holdings [1] - Shihezi Jinhui Energy Investment Co., Ltd. has pledged approximately 173 million shares, representing 50% of its holdings [1] - Zeng Chao Yi has pledged approximately 188 million shares, which is 47.77% of his holdings [1] - Zeng Chao Lin has pledged approximately 137 million shares, accounting for 45.42% of his holdings [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue composition is 100% from the aluminum industry [1] - As of the report, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization is 48.5 billion yuan [1]

Market Review - The main contract for aluminum futures closed at 20,710 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 140,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons from Monday, but up by 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - On September 4, 2025, the total aluminum rod inventory in Guangdong and Wuxi is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [2] - According to research, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in August 2025 is 3.7879 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 0.29% month-on-month; the average daily output in August is 122,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the rapid inventory buildup in various downstream sectors ahead of the peak season in September indicates a potential for demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector to exceed expectations, with profits in the aluminum industry continuing to shift from upstream to downstream [3] - Yide Futures notes that the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is recovering, supporting aluminum prices; however, aluminum ingot inventories remain below seasonal levels, and terminal consumption has not significantly started, indicating insufficient upward driving forces [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The social inventory is expected to decline, and the macro - situation is favorable [6]. - The alumina price is neutrally treated due to factors such as ore - end disturbances, winter storage expectations, and the Guinea election event. The supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [7]. - The production profit of aluminum alloy is significantly repaired, indicating actual consumption recovery. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 160 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 75 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,720 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,755 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,466 lots, and the position was 213,947 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 623,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 58,654 tons, a change of 125 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, a change of - 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 2, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,165 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,135 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,015 yuan/ton, closed at 3,022 yuan/ton, a change of 13 yuan/ton (0.43%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,046 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,994 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 310,480 lots, and the position was 242,297 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 2, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply side remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates are increasing, showing signs of a transition from the off - season to the peak season. The social inventory accumulation has slowed down, and de - stocking is expected. The macro - situation is favorable, and overseas consumption remains strong [6]. Alumina - In Guangxi, 5,000 tons of alumina were traded at a spot - cash price of 3,180 yuan/ton. The rainy season affects the import of Guinea ore and domestic ore mining. The alumina price lacks the driving force to fall further due to potential cost increases. The supply - demand balance remains slightly in surplus, and inventories are increasing. The alumina price is neutrally treated [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the production profit is significantly repaired, and the price difference between the spot price and aluminum ingots shows a seasonal repair trend, indicating actual consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the AD2511 - AL2511 contract [7]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is heating up, and the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market supports aluminum prices [1]. - The domestic alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the rising cost may limit the downside of prices; the electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish [5][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side Changes**: The construction of China Aluminum's bauxite mine and the start of the bauxite project in Qingzhen may reduce the domestic bauxite production and import in September. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the production may decrease in September. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic alumina import in September [4][21][39]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in ports has decreased, while the total inventory has increased [17][34]. - **Price and Cost**: The bauxite price has increased, pushing up the alumina production cost. The average full - cost of alumina production is about 2890 yuan/ton [21][26]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side Changes**: Some domestic projects are expected to increase production capacity, but the overall production in September may decrease. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic import in September [6][65][68]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory has increased, the bauxite inventory in ports has increased, and the inventory in LME has increased [51]. - **Price and Cost**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16650 yuan/ton [65]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [7]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side Changes**: The production of waste aluminum may increase, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in September. The import of unforged aluminum alloy may increase [9][80][91]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises' raw materials and finished products may increase [91]. - **Price and Cost**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy is close to loss, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips for the main contract or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [9].

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum Industry held its 17th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on September 1, 2025, in Shanghai, where it reviewed the proposal for the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue composition was 100.0% from the aluminum industry [1] - As of the report date, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization was 46.4 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The company Tianshan Aluminum Industry Group Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its share repurchase plan as of August 31, 2025 [1] - The repurchase plan was approved on April 9, 2025, with a total repurchase fund of no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 300 million yuan, aiming to buy back approximately 20 million to 30 million shares, which represents 0.43% to 0.64% of the total share capital [2] - The repurchase will be conducted within six months from the board's approval and the shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans [2] Group 2 - As of August 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 15 million shares, accounting for 0.32% of the total share capital, with a total payment of 120 million yuan [3] - The highest and lowest transaction prices for the repurchased shares were both 8 yuan per share [3] - The company confirmed that the repurchase complies with the established plan and relevant legal regulations, and will continue to advance the repurchase plan based on market conditions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, domestic bauxite prices are stable, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. With high operating capacity and output, and the possibility of increased imported alumina inflows, there is a strong expectation of supply surplus, putting pressure on prices. - For electrolytic aluminum, in September, the overseas focus is on the US Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. It is likely that there will be a rate cut in September. The supply changes little, and the operating output increases slightly. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, the downstream start - up rate rises slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate. Macro and fundamental factors may lead to the aluminum price oscillating strongly, with resistance at the 21000 - 21500 level, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped production due to tax policy adjustments. The demand in the communication field is picking up, and the market is at the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between the alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite price stability, high production, and possible imported inflows lead to supply surplus and price pressure. Pay attention to the new industrial plan and the situation in Guinea [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Focus on the US Fed's September interest - rate meeting. Supply is stable with a slight increase, demand is approaching the peak season, but inventory is still accumulating. Aluminum price may oscillate strongly, and a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, tax policy affects production, demand is showing signs of improvement, and the price is expected to be firm with a narrowing price difference [6]. 2. Market Review - In August, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed different trends. Alumina futures prices generally weakened, with a monthly decline of 9.38% from a high of 3317 yuan/ton to a low of 3006 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum futures prices rose slightly, reaching a high of 20950 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy**: In July, non - farm employment data was poor, but the employment level remained relatively low. Credit ratings were stable. Economic data such as PMI and inflation showed mixed trends. After Powell's speech, the market increased bets on a September rate cut [13]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Economic data improved significantly. Manufacturing PMI in Germany and France rose, and the eurozone's PMI broke above the boom - bust line. The ECB's rate - cut expectation remained stable [15]. - **Chinese Economy**: Overall, it was stable. Industrial added value, consumption, investment, and other data showed different trends. The economy faced some pressure in July - August, and more policy support was expected in the second half of the year [20]. - **Exchange Rate and Policy**: The US dollar exchange rate fluctuated greatly, while the RMB remained relatively stable. With the strengthening of the RMB and the expectation of a US rate cut, there is still significant policy space in the fourth quarter, and further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are possible [25]. - **US Steel and Aluminum Tariffs**: The expansion of the US steel and aluminum import tariff scope had limited impact on domestic aluminum prices [27]. 4. Fundamental Aspects - **Bauxite**: Shanxi's mining rights policy had limited short - term impact on supply. In July, domestic bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's rainy season affected bauxite shipments, and domestic supply may face a tight balance [28][31][35]. - **Alumina**: Although there were short - term supply disturbances, the operating capacity and output were high. Import inflows may increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply surplus and price pressure [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintained high profits, and the growth space of production was limited. Overseas, there were a few incremental capacities. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and the demand in the new energy and automotive industries was growing, while the real - estate demand was still weak [42][45][54]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory inflection point was approaching. The regeneration aluminum industry was facing challenges such as production reduction and inventory accumulation, and the import volume in July was at a four - year low [72][75][79].