Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the impact of negative factors on the decline of aluminum prices is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 15, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was 30 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 15, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,830 yuan/ton, closed at 20,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,940 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 82,102 lots, and the position was 148,539 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 71,394 tons, a change of 8,218 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 498,975 tons, a change of - 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,105 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 15, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,797 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.36%. The highest price was 2,818 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,782 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 241,190 lots, and the position was 361,466 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the decline of aluminum prices due to negative factors is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering, with the proportion of molten aluminum reaching a new high [6]. Alumina - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread [9]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a strong support due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, with expectations of a fluctuating but generally strong trend in aluminum prices moving forward [1][6]. Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures reached a peak of 21,205 yuan/ton on October 10, marking a nearly 11-month high, but quickly retreated due to insufficient driving forces [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with resistance at 21,130 yuan/ton and support at 20,650 yuan/ton [6]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.18% [3]. - The aluminum water ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 76.3%, leading to a decrease in cast ingot production by 8.67% to 857,000 tons [3]. - As of October 13, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets was 642,000 tons, a slight increase from October 9 but down 4,000 tons year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The average fully loaded cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in September was 16,488 yuan/ton, down 1.37% month-on-month and 6.58% year-on-year [4]. - The total cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline in October, with an estimated range of 15,800 to 16,200 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - The automotive market showed positive trends in September, with production and sales reaching 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, marking month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9% [5]. - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new car sales in September, indicating strong growth in this segment [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increased supply of new products, despite external uncertainties [6].

Core Insights - The A-share private placement market is experiencing a strong recovery in 2025, with total fundraising reaching 775.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 548.7% [1][2][10] - Key sectors attracting investment include non-bank financials, defense and military, semiconductors, and hardware equipment [1][3] Fundraising Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 119 companies conducted private placements, raising a total of 775.1 billion yuan, marking a 15.53% increase in the number of placements compared to the previous year [2] - The total fundraising amount significantly exceeds the annual totals from the previous three years, which were 721.9 billion yuan in 2022, 578.9 billion yuan in 2023, and 173.1 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Sector Analysis - The banking sector accounted for nearly 70% of the total fundraising, primarily due to major banks like China Bank and Postal Savings Bank raising a combined 520 billion yuan [2][3] - Non-bank financials and public utilities ranked second and third in fundraising, with amounts of 50.7 billion yuan and 29.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The semiconductor and defense sectors also saw significant fundraising, with amounts of 25.9 billion yuan and 24.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] Average Fundraising Amount - The average fundraising amount per project has increased, with the average for 115 companies (excluding four state-owned banks) being 22.2 million yuan, compared to 11.9 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Eleven companies raised over 5 billion yuan each, compared to only four in the previous year [3] Notable Projects - Major projects include Guolian Minsheng's 29.5 billion yuan for asset acquisition, AVIC Chengfei's 17.4 billion yuan for asset acquisition, and China Nuclear Power's 14 billion yuan for project financing [4][6] - Other significant projects include Fulede's 6.19 billion yuan for acquiring 100% of Fulehua and ChipLink's 5.31 billion yuan for acquiring 72.33% of ChipLink Yuezhou [4][6] Regional Distribution - Beijing leads in fundraising with 42.9 billion yuan from 11 projects, accounting for 55.34% of the total [7] - Shanghai and Jiangsu follow with 15.0 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Shaanxi has seen a notable increase in fundraising, reaching 19.2 billion yuan, largely due to AVIC Chengfei's successful issuance [8] Market Trends - The recovery in the private placement market is attributed to policy guidance, active mergers and acquisitions, and improved market profitability [12] - The technology sector, particularly in high-end manufacturing and AI, is seeing increased investment, with several companies planning significant fundraising for related projects [12]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, with aluminum futures showing slight strength, closing at 20,880.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates short-term pressure on the domestic economy, with slowing consumption and investment growth, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [1] - Future macro policies are expected to maintain a "steady progress" approach, relying on coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth [1] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that the upstream industry remains relatively loose, but domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is characterized by limited growth, with new capacity mainly from hydropower aluminum in the southwest [1] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with weak performance in construction materials dragging down overall consumption, while sectors like aluminum cables and plates are seeing slight recovery due to policy stimulus [1] - Looking ahead, market sentiment is influenced by changes in Trump's tariff policies, with expectations of limited aluminum price fluctuations and a preference for a stable oscillation in prices [2]

Group 1 - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang, announced that its 10th Board of Directors' fifth meeting will be held on October 13, 2025, in both in-person and communication formats [1] - The meeting will review the proposal regarding the re-election of members of the special committee of the 10th Board of Directors [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100.0% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Jiaozuo Wanfang has a market capitalization of 11.1 billion yuan [1]

Core Views - The multi-metal strategic attributes continue to strengthen, driving value reassessment in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The investment rating remains "outperform" [2] Tin Market Analysis - Global exchange visible inventory has significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [5][73] - The price of tin is expected to rise due to the limited number of new global tin mining projects, with most expected to come online after 2027 [51] Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for further increases in gold prices through 2025 [5] Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a long-term bull market for cobalt prices [6] - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by strong demand in the global energy storage market, with supply disruptions still present [6] Minor Metals - The strategic attributes of minor metals are strengthening, with rare earth export controls tightening and significant price increases observed [6] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [8] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large copper mine production cuts, with a focus on monitoring inventory changes [7][9] - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could shift to shortages if demand increases [7][32] Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [1][13] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons, mainly due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [1][13] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 53.04%, with expectations of further increase to 58.13% next week [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [2][14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [2][14] - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, affected by weak demand and unclear orders [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [3][15] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a consensus to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [3][15] - The U.S. government shutdown impacted economic data release and public services, affecting market sentiment [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89%, while the strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to enhanced control measures [4][31] - The sector is expected to experience a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" trend, with potential price increases as supply reforms take effect [4][31] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][31] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering [4][32] - The implementation of stricter fire-resistant standards may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][32] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and recovering demand [4][32] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16%, supported by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining [4][33] - The current inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a strong support for tin prices [4][33] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to demand from AI and photovoltaic sectors [4][33] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [5][59] - Lithium production increased to 20,600 tons, with expectations of further supply growth [5][59] - Downstream demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage remains strong, supporting price stability [5][59] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price surged by 17.8% to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by supply concerns and rising demand [5][61] - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation due to tight supply and high demand [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated due to ongoing supply constraints from Congo [5][61] Group 9: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [5][62] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 237,400 tons, raising concerns about supply stability [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to conflicting supply and demand signals [5][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the aluminum price showed internal and external divergence, with SHFE aluminum down 0.17% and LME aluminum up 2.79%. Fundamentally, the profit of primary aluminum smelting is at a historical high, but the room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products has recovered in the peak season. Although there is still uncertainty in demand, under the expectation of the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum, the expectation of ingot inventory accumulation is not strong. Coupled with the tight overseas spot, the aluminum price is expected to rise in the shock. This month, the operating range of the main contract of SHFE aluminum is expected to be between 20,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,600 - 2,900 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. The bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month. The total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. The global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 20 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 1.6 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened month-on-month, and the export advantage of aluminum products increased [12]. - Demand side: According to SMM research, the comprehensive PMI of aluminum processing in September was 55.7%, an increase of 2.4% month-on-month. Many sectors such as aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and industrial profiles were in the expansion range, with good performance in production and new orders; however, the demand for building materials and building profiles was weak due to the impact of real estate and funds, showing a differentiated trend in the industry [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: In September, SHFE aluminum fluctuated, down 0.17% for the month; LME aluminum rose 2.79% for the month. At the beginning of October, the aluminum prices of both domestic and overseas markets strengthened again [20]. - Term Spread: In September, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum converged [25]. - Spot Basis: In September, the spot in East and South China was at a discount to futures most of the time, while the Central China region turned to a premium [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In September, the spot in Central China was relatively stronger [35]. - LME Premium and Discount: In September, the LME aluminum Cash/3M fluctuated around par [39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In September, the profit of primary aluminum smelting increased month-on-month and was at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. At the beginning of October, the inventory rebounded [48]. - Bonded Area Inventory: At the end of September, the bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month [48]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of September, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. During the National Day holiday, the inventory increased significantly [51]. - LME Inventory: At the end of September, the global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In September, the domestic bauxite price decreased by 4 yuan/ton month-on-month [67]. - Alumina Price: In September, the domestic alumina price decreased by 210 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the import price decreased by 41 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In September, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton month-on-month [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased by 1.5% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year. As of the end of September, the built - in capacity of alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 1.5% month-on-month, and the operating rate was 80.2% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year-on-year [83]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons. It is expected that the molten aluminum ratio will continue to increase in October [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In September, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province decreased compared with August, among which Shandong's output decreased by 38,400 tons [91]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum plates and foils rebounded in August [102]. - In September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots rebounded month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month-on-month in August [105]. - In August, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. In September, the price difference between primary and recycled aluminum narrowed by 194 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in October 2025, the production scheduling of household air conditioners was 1.153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, with the decline expanding, and the month-on-month trend was stable; the production scheduling of refrigerators was 863,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, with the decline narrowing slightly; the production scheduling of washing machines was 908,000 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real estate data is still weak, the production and sales of automobiles are acceptable, and the production scheduling of photovoltaic modules is stable [112]. 3.7 Import and Export - Import: - In August 2025, China's imports of primary aluminum were 217,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.714 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened [117]. - In August, the imports of aluminum ingots mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the imports from Russia accounted for 63%, and the imports from India increased to 15% [121]. - Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%; from January to August, the cumulative exports were 4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [125]. - Other Imports and Exports: - In August 2025, China's imports of bauxite were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative imports of bauxite were 141.49 million tons [128]. - In August 2025, China's exports of alumina were 180,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative exports of alumina were 1.753 million tons [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors affecting alumina prices have not reversed, and the futures prices continue to face pressure. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and pay attention to the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, with a focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices this month was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and as of October 10, the Shandong spot price had a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable at - 25 yuan/ton [11][20]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained at a high level this month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation is expected to persist. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had significantly declined compared to early September [11][18]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September. The alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 9.96 tons to 10.63 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 8.74 tons to 20.66 tons [11][63][65]. 3.2期现端 (Spot and Futures End) - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained high, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, causing spot prices to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had dropped significantly compared to early September [18]. - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable [20]. 3.3原料端 (Raw Material End) - **Bauxite Prices**: In September, the bauxite price in Henan decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. As of October 10, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 73 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Domestic bauxite production decreased due to the rainy season and environmental policies [27]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The total imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. China imported 1233 tons of bauxite from Guinea in August, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.68%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first eight months were 107.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.74% [29][32]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of October 3, 2025, the global bauxite shipments from major countries remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory reached a new high of 29.98 million tons this year, indicating sufficient ore supply. In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a near - five - year high [35][37]. 3.4供给端 (Supply End) - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [40]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity**: In the first half of the year, projects were successfully put into production and gradually released output. The Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into production in the third quarter. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter is uncertain, and the Oriental Hope project is expected to be postponed to January 2026 [43]. - **Alumina Smelting Profits**: Alumina spot prices continued to decline, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of October 10, the production profit in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton, while the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinean ores were 50 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinean ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses [45]. 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import volume decreased from 126,000 tons last month to 94,000 tons, and the export volume decreased from 229,000 tons to 181,000 tons. The cumulative net export in the first eight months was 1.265 million tons. With the recent opening of the import window, the import volume in September and October is expected to gradually increase, potentially exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [48]. - **Alumina Import Window**: As of October 10, the Australian FOB price had decreased by 38 dollars/ton to 324 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 6 yuan/ton. The release of new overseas production capacity drove the spot price down, opening the import window [51]. 3.6需求端 (Demand End) - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The total production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [55]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [58]. 3.7库存 (Inventory) - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September, with increases in various types of inventory [63]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipts and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 87,400 tons to 206,600 tons. As the market supply of spot goods gradually loosened, the registration volume of warehouse receipts gradually recovered [65].