1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Bullish with a bias towards upward movement; Alumina: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum market is in a state of strong current reality but weak future expectations. Current consumption remains strong, social inventory is rapidly decreasing, and spot premiums are rising. Although there are concerns about future consumption due to tariff issues, the strong consumption may continue if overseas tariff policies loosen [4]. - Alumina prices are expected to show a weak trend. Although the spot price has slightly increased recently due to factors such as supply reduction from maintenance, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, and cost support is ineffective without large - scale production cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Aluminum - Price: As of the week of April 17, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 2.14% to $2365.5 per ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.66% to 19,645 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [5]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable and is expected to increase slightly in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.17 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, with a weekly increase of 20,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [5]. - Demand: According to SMM data, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream industries showed different trends. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained flat at 58.5%, the average operating rate of aluminum plate and strip decreased by 0.6% to 68%, the average operating rate of aluminum foil remained flat at 73%, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased by 2% to 63.6% [5]. - Inventory: As of April 17, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 689,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the previous week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 209,200 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 434,200 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,550 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was about 3,300 yuan per ton, with a marginal maximum production cost of 18,300 yuan per ton [6]. Alumina - Price: As of the week of April 18, 2025, the main contract price of alumina increased by 1% to 2,818 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [9]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 109.22 million tons, the operating capacity was 87.15 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100 tons, and the operating rate was 79.8%. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the future, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged [9]. - Cost: As of the week of April 18, the latest transaction price of bauxite dropped below $90 per ton, and the ocean freight increased by $1 to $20 per ton. The price of bauxite is still under pressure [9]. - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 4.001 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by 6,000 tons, the inventory at stations and ports decreased by 4,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. The pressure of warehouse receipt inventory on the market price remains [10]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, for high - cost enterprises using imported ore at $88 per ton, the full production cost was about 3,150 yuan per ton, with a production loss of about 300 yuan per ton. Enterprises using domestic ore also faced losses, and the import loss of alumina widened to - 256 yuan per ton [10].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.18」 铝类市场周报 沪铝需求内增外降，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝主力震荡走势，周涨跌幅环比持平，报19695元/吨。氧化铝主力震荡走势，周涨跌幅+0.46%，报2818元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，特朗普：有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议，但不急于达成协议；如果谈判破裂，据悉欧盟考虑对美国实施 出口限制。美联储威廉姆斯：货币政策处于良好位置，目前不认为需要很快调整利率。国内方面，国务院总理李强主持国务 院第十三次专题学习，他强调，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，把握政策力度必要时敢于打 破常规。基本面上，原料端部分海外发运铝土矿陆续到港令港口库存明显回升，国内铝土矿供应量级增长。氧化铝供给方面， 由于氧化铝现货价格持续低位运行，影响冶炼厂利润，部分冶炼厂减 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The反复 US tariff policy has triggered market concerns and affected market risk appetite, while the cautious adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has also impacted the commodity market. However, the positive support of domestic policies and the continuous recovery of market demand have provided support for commodity prices. Future attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the risk of price fluctuations in the commodity market caused by unexpected changes in the Fed's monetary policy [4][48]. - For aluminum, the macro - overseas policy is still in a state of game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend. In the short term, with macro - support and the peak season resonance, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter [4][102]. - For zinc, in the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter [8]. - For tin, due to frequent problems in overseas mines and the slowdown of the recovery of the supply side, tin prices are expected to remain high in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro: The US Tariff Window is Approaching, Focus on the Evolution of Domestic and Overseas Demand Market Operation Logic - **US**: The manufacturing industry has re - entered the contraction range, with the March ISM manufacturing PMI at 49, down 1.3 points from the previous month. The labor market shows signs of a mild slowdown, and inflation pressure has eased but remains resilient. The Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate cuts at the May FOMC meeting [18][19][21]. - **Eurozone**: The economic growth momentum is still weak. Although inflation is on a downward trend, the ECB will carefully balance economic growth and inflation risks. The April ECB meeting may suspend interest rate cuts but may release a clearer easing signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June has increased [23][25][26]. - **China**: The economy started smoothly with policies taking the lead. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased significantly, manufacturing investment remained at a high level, and the decline in real estate development investment narrowed. The consumer market showed a mild recovery, and financial data showed strong social financing but weak credit. The domestic price level maintained a mild upward trend [31][33][48]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and the ECB will also balance economic growth and inflation risks. Domestically, the economy continues to recover, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies and insufficient domestic demand. The US tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy changes may cause price fluctuations in the commodity market [47][48]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, the evolution of the US tariff policy, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [50]. 3.2 Aluminum: Expectations are Gradually Verified, Focus on Further Guidance Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q1 2025**: In January, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly and then moved in a range. In February, they oscillated strongly with a slightly higher center of gravity. In March, they first rose and then fell [52][53]. - **Cost Side**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to new production capacity. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased due to the rise in auxiliary materials [58][65][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in March, and the import window is closed. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise slightly in April [71][73]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum narrowed slightly. The import of scrap aluminum increased, but the terminal consumption of the recycled aluminum market was sluggish [76]. - **Demand Side**: The aluminum processing industry entered the expansion range in March. The terminal demand was divided, with strong demand in the power grid, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, but weak demand in the real estate construction sector [80][86][92]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: In March, the domestic social inventory decreased during the peak season, which supported the price. However, the high - level operation of aluminum prices affected the spot supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain [97]. Market Trend Judgment - Macro - overseas policies are still in a game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to develop steadily. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter, with support at 19,500 - 19,800 and pressure at 21,000 - 21,300 [102]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Macro - policy game, overseas event interference, mine resumption and shipping, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [104]. 3.3 Zinc: Short - Term Positive Demand Expectations Provide Support, but Zinc Prices Remain Under Pressure in the Medium - to - Long Term Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in Q1 2025**: In the first quarter, zinc prices fluctuated in a range with a lower center of gravity. In January, they weakened due to weakening fundamental support. In February, they moved in a range. In March, they were boosted by macro and peak - season expectations [106][108][109]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: The production of zinc concentrate is expected to increase, but the overall supply may not recover significantly in 2025. The processing fee continued to rise, indicating that the tight situation of the ore has eased. The import volume increased in the first two months, and the port inventory has improved [112][114][117]. - **Refined Zinc**: The profit of zinc smelters has been continuously repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. The import window is closed, and there is an expectation of a reduction in imports in the second quarter [121][123]. - **Zinc Consumption**: Policy support is expected to boost zinc consumption growth, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Market Trend Judgment - In the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, with a reference price range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Tin: Tight Supply at the Mine End, Tin Prices Remain High Market Operation Logic - **Domestic Refined Tin**: The production of domestic refined tin increased, but the processing fee has dropped to a low level in recent years due to the tight supply of mines [8]. - **Overseas Supply**: Frequent problems in overseas mines, such as the possible delay of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of the Bisie mine in the DRC, have affected the global supply and pushed up tin prices [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry continues to grow, and the automotive and home appliance markets are optimistic. The overall demand is warm but may not exceed expectations [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - There is no specific information provided in the given content about the later concerns/risk factors for tin.

铝类产业日报 2025/4/2 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 20,435.00 25.00 185,377.00 | -90.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -8397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,890.00 -10.00 210,173.00 | -61.00↓ +1.00↑ +17142.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 231,225.00 | -8550.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 323,790.00 | +8837 ...

华源证券近日发布有色金属大宗金属周报：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 铜：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。本周美铜/伦铜/沪铜分别上涨 0.08%/-0.45%/-0.20%，本周铜价在供给端扰动下冲高回落。供给端，据smm，嘉能可暂停智 利Altonorte冶炼厂运营，并启动不可抗力条款，Altonorte工厂的年产铜约35万吨，受此催化 影响，沪铜一度突破8.3万元/吨。南方铜业旗下SPCC-ILO铜冶炼厂在短暂停产一天后，已快 速恢复至满产状态，铜价回落。需求端，高铜价短期压制下游开工，库存去化，本周铜杆开 工率64.06%，环比降低5.87pct，smm电解铜社会库存33.45万吨，环比降低3.44%，沪铜库存 23.53万吨，环比降低8.21%。旺季逐步来临，铜需求端有支撑，在加工费持续低迷背景下， 若冶炼厂减产现象持续扩散，铜矿端短缺或逐步向金属端传导，铜价有望迎来上行周期，另 一方面重点关注美国对铜加征关税的落地情况。建议关注：紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、 铜陵有色。 铝：库存去化叠加下游需求回升，支撑铝价高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - **Asphalt**: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - **Lead**: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - **Plastics and Fibers** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - **Meat and Eggs** - **Pork**: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - **Bond**: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and ten other departments have issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)", aiming to enhance the resilience and safety of the supply chain, with a goal of making the overall development level of the aluminum industry globally leading by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, the plan targets a 3%-5% increase in domestic bauxite resources and a production of over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum [2][3]. - The plan emphasizes improving green development levels, with over 30% of electrolytic aluminum capacity exceeding energy efficiency benchmarks and a 30% clean energy usage ratio [2][3]. - The plan aims to enhance technological innovation capabilities, focusing on breakthroughs in low-carbon smelting and precision processing technologies [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Resource Management - The plan includes accelerating the increase of domestic bauxite resources through new exploration strategies and supporting the development of coal-aluminum co-mining projects [3][4]. - It encourages the mining of low-grade bauxite and the development of technologies for high-sulfur bauxite utilization [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Background and Current Status - The aluminum industry is a strategic resource crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest producer and consumer of aluminum products globally [4][5]. - In 2024, China's production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing materials, and recycled aluminum is expected to remain the highest in the world, supporting strategic emerging industries [5][6]. - The industry has seen significant technological advancements, including the establishment of the world's largest single alumina production line and a reduction in energy consumption for electrolytic aluminum production [5][6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include the aluminum smelting industry is expected to impact supply and demand dynamics [7]. - The demand for industrial metals is increasing due to sectors like new energy vehicles and computing power, alongside government initiatives to expand strategic material reserves [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant inventory reduction, with a focus on the upcoming peak demand season. The report suggests that the combination of inventory depletion and rising prices may lead to a favorable investment environment [12]. Summary by Sections Inventory - As of March 13, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 862,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 6,000 tons from the beginning of the week. The inventory reduction trend is becoming clearer, with the traditional peak demand season approaching [8][12]. Production - In February 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 357,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 222,000 tons. Conversely, alumina production was 6.935 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 215,000 tons [55][58]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 000933.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - China Hongqiao Group (Stock Code: 1378.HK) with a "Buy" rating - Tianshan Aluminum (Stock Code: 002532.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Aluminum Corporation of China (Stock Code: 601600.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Yunnan Aluminum (Stock Code: 000807.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd.: 2.56 CNY - China Hongqiao Group: 2.26 CNY - Tianshan Aluminum: 0.97 CNY - Aluminum Corporation of China: 0.86 CNY - Yunnan Aluminum: 1.60 CNY [5]. Price Trends - As of March 14, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,688.5 per ton, a slight decrease from the previous week. The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,990 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 155 CNY week-on-week [23][24]. Demand - Demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the downstream processing industries. The opening rates for aluminum processing sectors are generally improving, with notable increases in demand from the new energy vehicle and battery sectors [8][12].

晨会纪要（2025/3/13） [Table_Contacto 编辑人 r] 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 国际经验下，A 股投资者结构变迁及展望——A 股市场投资策略专题 行业专题评述 2 月挖掘机销量约 1.93 万台，同比增长 52.80%——机械设备行业周报 重点公司推荐 铝行业"绿色先锋"，业绩弹性有望释放——云铝股份（000807）深度报告 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 1、现阶段，沪市三类投资者中，一般法人是主要组成部分，持股占比达到 56.3%；而自然人投资者和专业 机构持股占比相当。从其变化趋势来看，2008 年之后创业股权基金的发展以及 2018 年资管新规对沪市投资 者结构产生一定影响。 2、美股投资者结构以个人投资者和专业机构为主，其持股占比接近八成；专业机构中，又以共同基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aluminum industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing material production in China is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating stable growth [1][2]. - Despite a 6% drag on aluminum demand from the real estate sector, the production of industrial aluminum profiles has historically surpassed that of construction aluminum profiles for the first time, compensating for the decline in construction aluminum [1][11]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests that while the growth rate of new energy vehicles may slow and the photovoltaic sector may not see additional aluminum demand, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, benefiting the home appliance sector [1][11]. - 2025 is projected to be the peak year for China's primary aluminum supply, with supply growth expected to be less than 2%, likely leading to a supply-demand gap in the aluminum industry, which may sustain or even create new highs in aluminum prices and smelting profits [1][11]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production Trends - In 2024, China's aluminum processing material production is projected to reach 49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with significant contributions from aluminum plates, foils, and wires [2]. - From 2020 to 2024, the total increase in aluminum production is expected to be 6.9 million tons, with aluminum plates contributing 42%, aluminum extrusions 28%, and aluminum foils 18% [2]. Industrial Aluminum Profiles - The production of industrial aluminum profiles is expected to reach 11.7 million tons in 2024, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, which compensates for the decline in construction aluminum profiles [6][11]. - The growth in industrial aluminum profiles is primarily driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, with photovoltaic aluminum profiles contributing 40% to the increase [5][11]. Aluminum Plates and Foils - The production of aluminum plates is expected to increase by 2.9 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with the fastest growth seen in automotive body panels, which have a CAGR of 38% [7][11]. - The production of battery foils and air conditioning foils has shown significant growth, with battery aluminum foil production expected to have a CAGR of 59% from 2020 to 2024 [14].