Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the US and Chinese bond markets is mainly due to the "hawkish" outlook of US monetary policy and the expectation of fiscal stimulus in China. The US bond yield rebounded, and the focus of the domestic bond market may shift to the expectation of fiscal stimulus. The production price index decreased, and the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased compared to the same period last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data on food, other consumer goods, commodities, energy, metals, real estate, shipping, etc. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.16% week - on - week and 26.81% year - on - year; the 30 - city commercial housing trading area increased by 2.79% week - on - week [16]. High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, export volume, etc., like the relationship between copper spot price year - on - year and industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [90][101]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including the average daily output of crude steel, production price index, and the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, etc. [103][112]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown [162][165].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The Fed announced an expected rate cut but hinted at no rush for rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. However, short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. [2] - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products will fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term watching; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The Fed's rate cut, large decline in initial jobless claims led to the US dollar index rebound and increased global risk appetite. Domestically: Consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing. Policies like the measures to expand service consumption were introduced. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. [2] - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term fluctuation, cautious short - term long; Treasury bonds - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; black - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; non - ferrous - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; energy - chemical - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; precious metals - short - term high - level strong fluctuation, cautious long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors like humanoid robots, automobiles, and biomedicine. Fundamentals showed slow domestic demand. Policies aimed at expanding service consumption were introduced. Risk appetite increased. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] Black Metal - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly. The Sino - US leaders' call and national meeting boosted market sentiment. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, and supply decreased slightly. There were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The market is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded. Steel mill profits narrowed but didn't trigger production cuts, and iron ore inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased slightly. The price will fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] - **Glass**: The glass market had stable supply and slightly improved demand but limited increments. With repeated policy sentiment, it will fluctuate in the short term. [6] Non - Ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate cut and positive Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks boosted market sentiment. However, copper demand may decline marginally, and the US economic slowdown restricts upward space. [7] - **Aluminum**: The price was flat. The recent increase was due to the Fed's rate cut and copper price spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak with increasing inventory. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Supply increased slightly. Silicon ferrosilicon prices were supported by cost, and the market will continue to fluctuate. [8] - **Soda Ash**: The market had high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, supply and demand will increase with the arrival of the peak season and upstream maintenance. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will drag down the price. [8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste aluminum supply is tight, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space. [9] - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 was low but expected to recover. Demand was weak. Inventory decreased significantly this week. The price will fluctuate in the short term with limited upward space. [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production reached a new high, and inventory decreased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the market will fluctuate strongly with attention to the upper pressure range. [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Production increased, and inventory increased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [10] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices changed, and inventory decreased slightly. There were rumors of storage and capacity reduction policies. It's easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it's advisable to go long at low prices. [11] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's rate cut, good US inventory data, and geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia provided support to oil prices. The price will fluctuate with support in the short term. [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the stable oil price with limited upward space. Basis is decreasing, and inventory is not significantly reduced. It's necessary to pay attention to the follow - up increase with oil prices. [13][14] - **PX**: It will fluctuate weakly with support. The PXN spread decreased, and the polyester market declined. [8] - **PTA**: Downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. However, low processing fees led to more maintenance plans, and there is support at the previous low. The price may decline in the short term. [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory increased, and demand was weak. The price will continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Short - Fibre**: It adjusted with the polyester sector. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited. [15] - **Methanol**: Supply was in excess, and high inventory pressured the price. [15] - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved. However, supply remained loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [15] - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand was weak. With low inventory and stable oil prices, the price will fluctuate weakly. [16] - **Urea**: Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory was divided. The market is under pressure in the short term. [16][17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: At the beginning of the US soybean listing, there were expectations of a decrease in the USDA - estimated yield. However, new harvests and lack of Chinese orders will increase downward pressure. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply was in excess. It's expected to stabilize in late September and October due to supply contraction in the fourth quarter and potential adjustment of the USDA - estimated yield. Rapeseed meal follows the soybean meal market. [17] - **Oils and Fats**: International oil and oilseed prices weakened. Palm oil production may recover, and exports decreased. Domestic palm oil demand weakened, and inventory increased. Soybean oil supply was sufficient, and consumption support was limited. The market for rapeseed oil was cautious. The domestic oil market will fluctuate with downward pressure. [17] - **Corn**: The new corn in Northeast China was listed smoothly, and the price was stable. The price in North China continued to fall but at a slower pace. The price in the sales area was stable. There is an expectation of price decline during the concentrated listing period from mid - October to November. [17] - **Pork**: With pork purchases for storage and pre - holiday stocking, the pork price may have a phased stable rebound. [17]

Group 1 - The overall margin balance of A-shares has surpassed 2.4 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high [1] - The average position of domestic stock private equity institutions has risen above 78%, marking the highest level this year [1] - The proportion of private equity firms with heavy or full positions (over 80% allocation) has increased to 60.02%, up by 5.81 percentage points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Foreign brokerage firms have expressed optimistic expectations for A-shares, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an "overweight" rating and predicting an 8% and 3% upside for A-shares and H-shares respectively over the next 12 months [1] - Goldman Sachs is particularly focused on "anti-involution" policies and AI-related investment opportunities as key growth drivers for the Chinese stock market [1] - Over 400 foreign institutions have conducted research on A-share listed companies since the third quarter, with more than 30 institutions conducting over 10 surveys [1] Group 3 - Most industry sectors achieved net financing inflows from early September to September 18, with 24 stocks seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - Sunshine Power led with a net financing inflow of over 5 billion yuan, followed by companies like Shenghong Technology, XianDao Intelligent, and others with significant inflows [3]

Group 1: Macro and Market Insights - The resilience of China's exports to non-US markets is driven by the recovery of consumer spending in the EU, demand for intermediate goods from ASEAN, and deepening cooperation with Africa [2] - Future export growth is expected to be supported by product competitiveness and global capital expenditure increases due to industrial policies in developed countries and recovery in manufacturing PMI [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at a relatively high level since 2010, indicating potential short-term profit-taking pressure and increased market volatility [3] - Recommended sectors for September include power equipment, communications, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media, with a long-term focus on the TMT sector [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The issuance of credit bonds increased by 55.61% week-on-week, with a total of 455 bonds issued amounting to 579.91 billion [9] - The secondary market for REITs showed a slight recovery, with the weighted REITs index rising to 186.23, reflecting a 0.1% return for the week [6] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The report highlights the nearing mass production of Tesla's Optimus V3 and the transition of intelligent driving assistance systems into a "strong standard" era, recommending companies like NIO, Xpeng Motors, and SAIC Motor [10] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The second-generation fluorinated refrigerant quota is being further reduced, leading to a tightening supply and a significant increase in product prices, benefiting leading companies in the fluorochemical sector [11] Group 6: Real Estate Sector - China Resources Vientiane Life reported a retail revenue of 122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with a core net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 39.9/44.6/50.0 billion [12] - China Overseas Property's revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with a stable performance in the real estate market, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - Huafa Group's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 3.5/5.8/7.7 billion, with a focus on cautious land acquisition and business development [14] Group 7: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Yun Aluminum's revenue reached 29.078 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 40% [15]

财新周刊｜金融业降薪来临 文｜财新周刊 王娟娟 武晓蒙 丁锋 吴雨俭 按往年惯例，金融行业员工通常在春节或年中能拿到上 一年的年终奖，但眼下不少人仍在翘首以盼。"过去我们是春 节发年终奖，去年拖到了'五一'，今年眼看到'十一'了，还没 有年终奖的影子。"一位金融从业人员感叹。 年终奖与业绩挂钩，在金融机构的员工收入构成中占比 可观，通常达40%—50%甚至更高，其发放情况直接影响整 体收入水平。 大家都在等待财政部关于薪酬改革的最新方案。 按照财政部2021年发布的行业名录，共有27家中央金融 企业，包括主权财富基金 中投公司 ； 国家开发银行 、 中国 进出口银行 及 中国农业发展银行 三家开发性政策性银行； 工商银行 、 农业银行 、 中国银行 、 建设银行 、 交通银 行 五家大行； 中国人保 、 中国人寿 、 中国再保险 等六家 保险公司； 华融 、 长城 、 东方 、 信达 四家金融资产管理 公司（AMC）； 中信集团 、 光大集团 及 银河金控 三家金 控集团等。其中，华融已被中信集团合并更名为中信金融资 产管理股份有限公司。数据显示，这27家中央金融企业的资 产持续占金融业总资产的六成以上。 据 ...

｜2025年9月22日星期一｜ NO.1中金公司：本轮行情可能更具备"长期"、"稳进"条件 中金公司（601995）研报指出，近期A股仍在短线调整期，不改中期趋势。本轮行情可能更具备"长 期"、"稳进"条件。未来在配置上，1、成长风格近期仍显现扩散及轮动特征，年初至今成长风格呈现扩 散(由科技成长扩散至创新药、高端制造、军工、新能源等领域)及轮动(强势板块交替)，该机构认为这 种特征后市仍有望继续延续；2、临近三季度末，投资者对三季报业绩关注度或逐渐抬升；3、重要政策 时点前关注中长期改革建设方向，如受益支持新质生产力建设、绿色发展、扩大开放等领域；4、红利 风格仍为阶段性、结构性表现。 NO.2中信建投：华为发布多款AI算力新品持续推荐算力产业链 中信建投（601066）研报称，华为最新公布了一系列即将上市和规划中的新品，如昇腾950PR/昇腾 950DT、昇腾960和昇腾970三个系列产品，分别将于2026年第一季度和2026年第四季度，以及2027年第 四季度、2028年第四季度上市，围绕更高算力、更高带宽持续演进，持续满足AI算力不断增长的需 求。同时，华为发布Atlas950超节点，支持8192张基 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming week (September 22 to September 28) will see the release of key economic data in China, including the September LPR rates and the unlocking of nearly 60 billion yuan in market value from restricted stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1][12] - A total of 44 stocks will face the unlocking of restricted shares, amounting to 2.821 billion shares, with a total market value of 596.86 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 19 [1][3] - The top three stocks by unlocking market value are Hehe Information (10.835 billion yuan), Ziyan Food (7.126 billion yuan), and Wireless Media (5.521 billion yuan) [1][4] Group 2 - The "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" press conference will be held, featuring key financial leaders discussing achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take place, with potential increases in gasoline and diesel prices based on recent crude oil price trends [6] - The National Day cultural tourism consumption month will be launched, with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies to stimulate tourism during the holiday period [7] Group 3 - The 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held from September 23 to 25 in Xi'an, focusing on sustainable development and cooperation among Eurasian countries [8] - The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo will take place from September 25 to 29 in Hangzhou, showcasing advancements in digital trade [9] - The 2025 World New Energy Vehicle Conference will be held from September 27 to 29 in Haikou, discussing future transportation and sustainable development [10]

据记者对中国证券业协会数据的统计，截至9月19日，券商分析师数量达6162人，今年以来新增超400人。 证券时报记者 谭楚丹 券商分析师人数创下历史新高。 近日，证券时报记者查询中国证券业协会数据发现，券商分析师数量已突破6000大关，创历史新高。据了解，大型券商研 究所以内生培养为主，中小机构则倚重外部引进。 券商分析师队伍正加速扩张，但市场蛋糕却在缩小。受公募基金"费改"影响，上半年行业分仓佣金收入下滑超30%，券商 研究所转型迫在眉睫，需寻求非佣金类新业务增长点、实现收入结构多元化；同时，部分头部机构的增员速度有所放缓。 规模显著扩容 拉长时间维度看，券商分析师近两年来呈快速扩张态势。据东方财富Choice数据，2018年分析师数量突破3000，此后三年 间长期在4000人以内波动，直至2022年才跨越4000人大关；2024年分析师数量已突破5000人。 截至9月19日，共有3家券商分析师数量超过300人，较年初增加2家。其中，中金公司以344名分析师数量排名第一；国泰 海通证券因合并因素成为行业第二，拥有303名分析师；中信证券的分析师数量亦在今年突破300人。 东方财富证券增员数量紧随其后。据中证 ...

Market Overview - Recent macro events are leaning towards a favorable market outlook, but the A-share index has retreated after a rise, indicating some breakthrough pressure at current levels [1][4] - The market's response to positive news has been tepid, particularly in previously popular tech sectors, suggesting a cooling of short-term market sentiment [1][4] - With the upcoming National Day holiday, trading activity is expected to decline, and a lack of clear macro catalysts may lead to a predominantly volatile market before the holiday [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategy should focus on stability, with a recommendation to control exposure to high-risk sectors while emphasizing medium to long-term fundamentals [1][10] - Key areas of focus include: 1. Service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema [1][10] 2. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation [1][10] 3. "Anti-involution" sectors including steel, building materials, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [1][10] 4. Sectors benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, such as Hang Seng Technology, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][10] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, with August PPI month-on-month remaining flat after a 0.2% decline in July, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2][5] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August was 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [5][6] - Consumer spending showed potential for improvement, with retail sales in August growing by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.7% in July [5][6] Policy Developments - The government is expected to continue implementing service consumption policies, with measures aimed at enhancing service supply and meeting diverse consumer needs [7] - The central bank's recent press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide insights into monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate [6][7] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking a shift in focus from inflation to employment [9][11] - The Fed's projections indicate further rate cuts in the coming years, which may positively impact global liquidity and emerging markets [9][11] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.14% during the last week [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 8.55% compared to the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in market activity [12]

"货币在贬值，拿着不如花掉"——当这种心态开始弥漫，美股市场交易的逻辑也随之改变。 据追风交易台消息，高盛交易员9月21日发布最新市场洞察报告称，当前的美股市场环境与1999年互联网泡沫时期惊人地相似，市场进入流动性驱 动的投机阶段。 尽管穆迪的经济衰退模型亮起红灯——未来12个月衰退概率高达48%，但市场参与者似乎已将基本面抛在脑后，转而全身心投入一场由流动性驱 动的狂欢。高盛交易员更是言预测："未来3到6个月，经济和市场将'猛烈上冲'。" "我们不再交易基本面了，"报告直言，"我们正在交易流动性、仓位和市场行情。" "当ARKK表现优异时，就是垃圾股时代。这种趋势才刚刚开始。" 1999重现？基本面已退居次席 "我们以前来过这里，"这位高盛交易员写道，"想想1999年，在1998年8月的抛售之后，美联储的救市彻底扭转了市场叙事，市场成了价格走势的 奴隶。"他认为，今天的情况如出一辙：重要的不再是基本面，而是市场仓位和价格行为本身。 一方面，经济的矛盾信号确实存在。货运、汽车、化工和房地产等对利率敏感的周期性行业正显示出衰退压力。但另一方面，服务业、医疗保 健、科技、国防和人工智能等领域仍在扩张。更重要的是 ...