Group 1 - The evolving tariff situation continues to create both pressure and opportunities for the market [2][5] - The most likely economic scenario is slow growth with persistent inflation, with a 40% probability assigned to this outcome [2] - The potential for a mild recession increases if tariffs are raised on key trading partners, as they account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [5] Group 2 - Fixed income markets are expected to see rising U.S. Treasury prices due to anticipated dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The stock market may experience a differentiated impact, with the S&P 500 likely to continue its upward trend despite growth slowdowns, driven by a weaker dollar and tax incentives for key sectors [3] - Industries sensitive to trade policies will face varying impacts, with industrial goods benefiting from domestic investment while consumer goods and retail sectors may struggle due to rising import costs [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a volatile and weakening pattern this week (7/7 - 7/11), with the stock - bond "seesaw" effect being the main trigger for market adjustments, along with tightened regulatory expectations and a convergent capital market in the second half of the week [1][6]. - In the past two weeks, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Although the market remains in a long - term mindset, the "fear of high prices" has not been alleviated. The trading logic mainly revolves around the capital market and the stock market, and the market is waiting for new signals [2][15]. - Looking ahead, factors such as the stock - bond linkage effect, the stability of capital interest rates, next week's economic and financial data, the July Politburo meeting, and the supply - demand game in the bond market are worthy of attention. In the third quarter, the bond market is still in a favorable environment, with long - term interest rates expected to fluctuate narrowly around 1.65%, and there is no need to overly worry about credit risks [3][28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Volatility and Weakening - This week, the bond market was under pressure. The stock - bond "seesaw" was the main adjustment logic, and regulatory expectations and capital convergence also suppressed the market. From Monday to Friday, bond yields showed different changes, with short - term adjustments being more significant, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Most yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) also increased [1][6]. 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - This week, the capital market was first loose and then tight, with capital interest rates rising moderately. After the cross - quarter period, the capital interest rate center entered a downward channel, and DR001 still ran below the policy interest rate. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed compared to the previous week, and the capital stratification remained at a low level, although overnight capital stratification increased in the second half of the week [8][10]. 3.3 Profit - Taking or Re - Layout Opportunity - In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown different trends. Last week, it was volatile and relatively strong, while this week it was volatile and weak due to the shift of the capital market to a neutral state and the rise of the stock market, leading to some short - term profit - taking [15]. - There are several characteristics: 1) When the capital interest rate "stepped down", the market did not follow. Except for the 50 - year Treasury bond, other long - term bond yields were mostly in a sideways state, and the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds and DR007 reached relatively high levels since the second quarter [16]. 2) The volatility of credit - type assets was greater than that of interest - rate bonds. Last week, different assets compressed spreads, but this week they entered an adjustment phase, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds having a greater adjustment amplitude [21]. 3) Behind the "V" - shaped trend of credit - type assets, the trading desks mainly composed of funds shifted from increasing allocations to taking profits. Last week, funds bought credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, but this week, their buying power weakened, and they started to reduce holdings in the second half of the week [22]. - The bond market's volatile pattern is due to the balance of long and short forces. The fundamental structural repair supports the bond market, while the monetary policy is in a dynamic balance between "moderate" and "loose". Although there are expectations for overall easing policies in the second half of the year, the probability of short - term implementation is relatively low [26]. 3.4 Factors to Watch in the Future - Stock - bond linkage effect: If the stock market is supported by factors such as tariff game mitigation, policy strengthening, or fundamental improvement, it will affect the bond market through changes in institutional liability and allocation power, increasing market volatility [3][28]. - Capital interest rates: Whether capital interest rates can remain at a low level needs to be observed. Next week, there will be more "variables" in the capital market, and how the central bank responds to various factors will be an important determinant of the stability of capital interest rates [3][28]. - Economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting: Next week's economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting may release incremental signals, which are important windows for macro - policy adjustment [29]. - Supply - demand game in the bond market: In the third quarter, there may be a surge in government bond supply, which may disrupt the bond market, but considering the current coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, there may be no need for excessive concern. The allocation situation of configuration desks such as bank self - operations and insurance companies also needs attention [3][28][29]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus - Next week, a series of economic and financial data from China, Germany, the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan will be released, including import and export amounts, social financing scale, GDP, CPI, and PPI, which are worthy of attention [31].

Global Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments have been a core variable affecting global markets, with a pause in tightening announced in Q1 2025 after three rate hikes in 2024, leading to significant capital flow restructuring [3] - Emerging markets attracted over $80 billion in foreign capital inflows in the first four months of the year, a 65% increase compared to the same period last year, with Southeast Asian and Latin American markets being the focal points [3] - In contrast, developed economies in Europe and the US are still in an adjustment phase, with the Eurozone facing energy price volatility and weak manufacturing recovery, resulting in a 3.2% decline in the Euro against the Dollar [3] China Economic Performance - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.2%, driven by high-end manufacturing and the digital economy [4] - The production of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, industrial robots by 28%, and the core AI industry scale surpassed 5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards an innovation-driven model [4] - The A-share market exhibited structural characteristics, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rising by 12.6% this year, outperforming the broader market, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and biomedicine [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to establish a diversified asset allocation framework in response to the complex market environment [5] - The commodity market is undergoing structural changes, with rising demand for lithium and cobalt due to the increasing share of renewable energy, and global battery demand expected to exceed 2 TWh in 2025 [5] - Green bonds are emerging as a growth point, with global issuance expected to surpass $500 billion this year, and China accounting for 25% of this market [5] - Three main investment themes are suggested: globally competitive high-end manufacturing firms, service companies benefiting from consumption upgrades, and tech companies positioned to capitalize on the digital economy [5] Conclusion on Global Financial Landscape - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [6] - A scientific investment framework and a long-term perspective are essential for navigating the complexities of the financial waves in this uncertain era [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable environment with the central bank maintaining a moderately loose policy, but there are potential disturbances. The third quarter may still be a good window for long - positions, but the time may be later [4][5][37]. - Short - term central bank's total - volume easing policies are relatively limited, and whether the capital interest rate will be further relaxed is worth discussing. The pricing of funds and certificates of deposit in the new steady - state needs further observation [4][21][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance this Week - From June 30 to July 4, the bond market showed a volatile and strong pattern, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining. After the cross - quarter period, the funds were loose, and the overnight interest rate dropped to 1.3%. The medium - and short - term bonds performed strongly, and the interest rate of 50 - year treasury bonds decreased significantly. As of July 4, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 0.9BP, - 0.7BP, - 0.3BP, + 0.2BP, - 3.4BP respectively from last week, reaching 1.34%, 1.35%, 1.64%, 1.85%, 1.94% [1][8]. 3.2 Understanding the Boundary of Central Bank's Easing - **July Liquidity Situation**: In July, the liquidity usually shows a seasonal loosening trend. The reasons include that July is a small month for credit lending, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit decreases, and the seasonal return of wealth - management funds. However, there are concerns such as the impact of fiscal and tax periods, the pressure of government bond supply, and the increase in the maturity scale of open - market operations. The central bank's monetary policy attitude is crucial, and the marginal pricing and phased steady - state of funds and certificates of deposit may become clearer in the middle of the quarter [16][20]. - **Central Bank's Policy Tools**: In the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is low. It may prefer to use tools such as MLF renewal and outright reverse repurchase to inject liquidity. The central bank may restart treasury bond purchases during the peak of government bond supply, especially in August - September [3][21]. 3.3 Potential Disturbances in the Bond Market - **Fundamental Changes under Tariff Deduction**: After the Sino - US tariff mitigation, the external demand and export pressure have eased, the economic pessimistic expectations have been revised, and the long - term interest rate may face upward pressure. However, there is still uncertainty in subsequent tariff policies [26]. - **Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect**: If the fundamentals stabilize and the economic recovery expectation strengthens, the risk preference may shift, and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect may be more prominent, which may suppress the bond market [29]. - **Incremental Policy Tools**: It is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of wide - credit restoration under the strengthening of fiscal policies and the impact of new policy - based financial tools on the bond market. The new policy - based financial tools may have a scale of 50 billion yuan, and if deployed in the third quarter, they may boost the economy in the third and fourth quarters [33][34]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Focus - July 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in June, Japan's international reserves in June [38]. - July 8: Japan's current account balance in May, Germany's export value in May [38]. - July 9: China's CPI year - on - year and PPI year - on - year in June, Japan's M2 year - on - year in June [38]. - July 10: China's social financing data and credit data in June [38]. - July 11: Germany's CPI year - on - year in June, UK's trade balance in May [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Hua'an's View**: The bond market is favorable, but the odds of further decline in interest rates are limited. It is still advisable to adopt a trading mindset. The current market sentiment is rising, with investors both bullish and taking action. The fundamental factors still support the bond market, but the potential for interest rate decline is limited. Given the historical performance of the bond market in June, it is recommended to approach it with a trading perspective [2]. - **Seller's View**: More than half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market, with a significant increase in sentiment this week [3]. - **Buyer's View**: The buyer sentiment is relatively cautious, with nearly 60% holding a neutral view. Overall, the fixed - income buyer's view is neutral with a slight bullish bias [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.43, indicating a predominantly bullish view, up from last week. The unweighted index is 0.54, an increase of 0.12 from last week. Among the institutions, 16 are bullish, 12 are neutral, and 1 are bearish. 55% of the institutions are bullish, 41% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - This week's buyer sentiment index is 0.23, showing a neutral - with - a - slight - bullish view, down 0.12 from last week. Among the institutions, 10 are bullish, 16 are neutral, and 1 is bearish. 37% of the institutions are bullish, 59% are neutral, and 4% are bearish [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include quarter - end wealth management repatriation and central bank monetary policy. Quarter - end wealth management repatriation poses resistance to credit spread compression and disturbs the credit market in the short term. Monetary policy easing may drive interest rate changes, but the room for further spread compression is limited [16]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - with - a - slight - bullish view. One institution is bullish and 11 are neutral. 8% of the institutions are bullish, and 92% are neutral [17]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 13, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts increased. The contract prices were 102.46 yuan, 106.18 yuan, 109.02 yuan, and 120.5 yuan respectively, up 0.01 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.09 yuan, and 0.72 yuan from last Friday. The contract holdings increased, while the trading volumes and trading - to - holding ratios decreased [19][20]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 13, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 3.62%, up 0.06 pct from last week and 0.10 pct from Monday, with a weekly average of 4.33%. The turnover rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds was 5.90%, up 0.04 pct from last week. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds decreased to 0.92% on June 13, down 0.07 pct from last week [31]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 13, except for the TF contract, the basis of other contracts narrowed. The net basis of the TS contract narrowed, while that of others widened. The IRR of the TS contract decreased, while that of others increased [36][39]. 3.2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 13, except for the TL contract, the inter - delivery spread of other contracts narrowed. The inter - variety spreads of all main contracts widened [45].

Group 1 - The current investment environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, driven by unpredictable large-scale tariff plans from the U.S. and rising inflation, alongside severe policy divergence among major global central banks [1] - The U.S. stock market is highly concentrated, with a few large-cap companies significantly contributing to excess returns; for instance, the S&P 500 index is projected to return 25% in 2024, but this drops to 20% when excluding Nvidia, and further to 12% when excluding the top seven stocks [1] - The fixed income market faces challenges as investors seek alternatives to equities; the private credit sector, particularly direct lending, has seen "dry powder" reach near historical highs, indicating potential future return reductions due to an oversupply of capital [1] Group 2 - Investors should consider fixed income investments that focus on total returns rather than just yield, utilizing active management strategies that allow for flexible allocation across regions and sectors in a highly differentiated policy environment [2] - Active fixed income fund managers possess deep market insights, which are crucial in the current uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape, enabling them to analyze macroeconomic trends, interest rate movements, and the financial health of specific companies or sectors [2] - These managers are adept at technical analysis, allowing them to identify real-time opportunities from market mismatches, thereby potentially reducing portfolio volatility and capturing risk-adjusted returns in the broader fixed income market [3] Group 3 - There are opportunities in inefficient and often overlooked non-core market segments, such as convertible bonds and AT1 securities, which may be missed by fund managers focused on single industries [3] - In a volatile market environment, characterized by rapid changes due to social media or sudden policy shifts, experience, diversification, and adaptability are essential for capturing subtle market discrepancies [3] - Seeking return-oriented fixed income assets managed by flexible and adaptive fund managers may help mitigate risks associated with current uncertainties while uncovering opportunities created by such uncertainties [3]

Group 1: Communication Industry - Broadcom's CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) has made significant progress, launching a single-channel 200G CPO product series in May and delivering the Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip in June, which supports both conventional and CPO versions [2] - The report anticipates that technology giants like Broadcom and NVIDIA will accelerate the advancement of CPO technology, fostering a mature ecosystem within the industry [2] - The outlook for the CPO industry is positive, with opportunities expected for related passive optical devices, optical chips, and optical engines, recommending companies such as Tai Chen Guang and Tianfu Communication, while suggesting to pay attention to Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yi Sheng [2] Group 2: Multi-Financial Industry - In May, the ETF market saw a total asset scale increase of 1.6%, with stock ETFs rising by 0.9%, indicating a stable growth trend despite market fluctuations [3] - Bond funds reached a record high with a net asset value of 284.1 billion, growing by 15% month-on-month, and their market share increased by 0.8 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - The report highlights the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which aims to enhance the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, suggesting that stock ETFs may experience rapid growth opportunities [3] Group 3: Electronics and Computing Industry - The outdoor sports trend and the rapid growth of social media content are driving the transition of action cameras and panoramic cameras from niche products to mainstream creative tools for outdoor enthusiasts and short video users [4] - Key players in this emerging market include Ying Shi Innovation, GoPro, and DJI, with the industry expected to evolve towards "all-in-one" personal imaging devices [4] - Competition is shifting from hardware specifications to multi-dimensional competition involving AI, software ecosystems, and differentiated innovation capabilities [4] Group 4: Financial Engineering - The LLM-FADT strategy, based on the open-source model Qwen3-8b, has shown significant improvement over the previous BERT-FADT strategy, with annualized excess returns of 12.16% for the LLM-FADT Top25 CSI 300 index combination and 18.53% for the LLM-FADT healthcare sector combination [6] - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of the enhanced strategy in stock selection, particularly in the context of the healthcare sector [6] Group 5: Transportation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to perform well due to strong demand during the summer travel season and favorable oil exchange rates, with a long-term supply growth slowdown improving supply-demand dynamics [11] - The report recommends high-dividend Hong Kong road stocks, highlighting the stability of the road sector's performance and suggesting a focus on companies like China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines [11] - The easing of tariffs has significantly boosted shipping rates, although market expectations may have already priced this in, leading to increased volatility in the sector [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the credit bond market had an independent performance. By the end of the month, the valuation yields of urban investment bonds with implicit ratings from 1 - 5 years reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - Short - duration spreads hit new lows, while term spreads and grade spreads still have room. The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. There is still room for compression in grade spreads and term spreads [2]. - Currently, the coupon advantage of credit bonds remains, but the valuation fluctuation risk has started to increase. The main reasons for the stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May were the decline in the central funds rate and the increased demand for credit bond allocation due to deposit transfer. However, overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter have a growing impact on the market [3]. - In the future, short - duration spreads of various implicit ratings have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. At the same time, the valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. - Strategically, investors are advised to adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for riding returns, and also consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. The annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Bond Market Performance in May - The valuation yields of 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. The 3 - year AA +, AA, and AA(2) implicit ratings had grade spreads of 7bp, 16bp, and 27bp compared to AAA, with 5 - 10bp compression space compared to historical lows. The historical quantiles of term spreads of 3 - year and 5 - year varieties compared to 1 - year varieties of the same rating were still in the 10% - 20% range [2]. Reasons for Market Performance and Future Outlook - The stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May was due to the decline in the central funds rate and increased credit bond allocation demand from deposit transfer. But overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter had a growing impact. At the end of May, fund redemptions caused significant bond - market fluctuations [3]. - Short - duration spreads have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. The valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. Investment Strategy - Adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for more riding returns. Also, consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. Based on the end - of - month yield curve, the annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2021, the logic of the "asset shortage" in the bond market is not applicable this year. Instead, the bond market presents a "liability shortage." The liability gap and structure are the main lines of bond market trading this year [2][5][12]. - The bond market is unlikely to rise trend - wise. Only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high, and the market interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.6% [2][8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. A 10bp positive carry can boost the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by about 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points. The current positive carry amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging [2][8][30]. - It is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.65% and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is above 1.9%. Institutions with stable liabilities can appropriately focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [2][8][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 From "Asset Shortage" to "Liability Shortage", Bond Market Volatility - Before 2024, the "asset shortage" was the main line of the bond market. Due to the downward pressure on the real estate industry and the establishment of the regulatory red line for local implicit debt, credit expansion was constrained. Since this year, with the adjustment of the social financing structure and the relative stability of credit, the "asset shortage" is no longer the main contradiction. The supply of government bonds has increased, and the social financing growth rate has rebounded to 8.7% in April [5][12]. - While the asset supply has increased, the bond market faces a "liability shortage." The central bank's attitude is not the only source of liability pressure. Currently, the market style is more trading - oriented, lacking stable - liability configuration forces. Insurance's premium income growth has declined significantly this year, and its trading attribute has increased; wealth management is undergoing rectification, reducing the allocation of less - liquid credit bonds; public funds have a strong wait - and - see sentiment [8][19]. 3.2 Difficulty in Trend - wise Market, Focus on Curve Trading Opportunities - The bond market is difficult to rise trend - wise. In a relatively stable fundamental situation, only continuous negative carry can drive the trend - wise correction of long - term interest rates. The current fundamental situation is relatively stable, but the real interest rate is high, and there is still uncertainty in the fundamental recovery. The probability of a tightening of capital prices in the second quarter is not high [8][22]. - The bond market has no obvious odds recently. Although the bond market has returned to the positive carry range, the amplitude is insufficient, restricting the market's enthusiasm for leveraging. A 10bp increase in carry can increase the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio by 0.14 and 0.21 percentage points respectively. Since May, the average monthly inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has increased by about 0.2 percentage points compared with April [8][30]. - Before the bond market shows sufficient odds, it is difficult to have a trend - wise market. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate around 1.6% - 1.7%. It is recommended to capture trading opportunities along the yield curve. Institutions with stable liabilities can focus on the coupon opportunities of credit bonds with a term of more than 3 years [8][34].

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（4 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-04-28 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：持券待涨，关注 30Y 利差压缩机会 近期利率持续横盘，投资者普遍看多债市但也谨慎追多。市场即将迎来 4 月经济基本面的确认，关税反复难空债市，持券过节或是较优策略，进入 5 月 后财政供给高峰与宽货币对冲，缴税小月+央行边际转松的态度可能使得资金 利率中枢出现下移，此前负 Carry 现象已经有所缓解。此外也可以适当把握 30Y-10Y 利差走扩的机会，拉长久期，静待利率出现下行机会。 ⚫ 卖方观点：维持乐观，待货币政策落地、基本面验证打开下行空间 截至 4 月 28 日，本 ...