Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting boosted market expectations for a September interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and significantly increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down across the board and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier stated measures to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, enhancing policy stimulus expectations. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and trading suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation; various commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Asset trends and trading suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation. Among commodity sectors, the black metals are expected to correct in the short term, the non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, the energy and chemical sectors are expected to rebound with volatility, and precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, all suggesting cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and securities, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. - **Fundamentals and policies**: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations increased, and the extension of the tariff truce reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased marginally. - **Operation suggestion**: Cautious short - term long positions [3]. Precious Metals - **Market performance**: Precious metals rose significantly last Friday. The international gold price rebounded above the $3350/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold closed at around 781.12 yuan/gram. - **Influencing factors**: Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, high manufacturing PMI but rising initial jobless claims, and the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude. Focus on the next stage of employment data [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - **Market performance**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. - **Fundamentals**: Demand remained weak, and the inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons week - on - week. The output of building materials decreased, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.65 tons. There were rumors of production regulation in Cangzhou, and iron - water output may further decline. - **Outlook**: The steel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profits were high, and iron - water output increased slightly. With the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be upgraded. Steel mills mainly replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis. The supply increased, with the global iron - ore shipment volume increasing by 359.9 tons and the arrival volume increasing by 94.7 tons week - on - week. Port inventories showed an increasing trend. - **Outlook**: Iron - ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market performance**: The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained flat last Friday, while the futures prices continued to decline. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of manganese ore were weak. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers was high, with the national capacity utilization rate of silicomanganese increasing by 2.32% to 45.75% and the daily output increasing by 1605 tons. The national capacity utilization rate of ferrosilicon increased by 1.86% to 36.18%, and the daily output increased by 535 tons. - **Outlook**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [5][6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The main soda - ash contract was weakly running last week. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased week - on - week due to the return from previous maintenance, and there was new capacity coming on - stream. Demand remained stable week - on - week, but was still weak compared to the same period in previous years. Profits decreased week - on - week. - **Outlook**: Soda ash is in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is likely to decline rather than rise [7]. Glass - **Market performance**: The main glass contract was weakly running last week. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, with no change in production capacity and the number of production lines. Demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as glass prices fell. - **Outlook**: Glass supply is stable, demand has limited growth, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Macro - factors**: Powell's speech increased expectations for a September interest rate cut, but some Fed members were cautious about rate cuts. Tariffs still affected the economy. - **Supply and demand**: Copper mine production growth was higher than expected, and refined - copper production was unlikely to decrease significantly. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally. - **Outlook**: The strong trend of copper prices may not last [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum prices rose slightly last Friday but closed with a long upper shadow. - **Inventory situation**: Aluminum inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, but domestic social inventory has increased by nearly 15 tons, and LME inventory has increased by about 14 tons since the low point in late June. - **Outlook**: The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a possibility of forming a double - top pattern [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and demand**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some enterprises. It is currently the off - season, and demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - **Supply side**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. Although the mine supply is currently tight, the reduction in refined - tin production is lower than expected. Some enterprises plan to carry out maintenance. - **Demand side**: Terminal demand is weak, but price drops have stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9278 tons this week. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Production situation**: As of August 21, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 4.2% to 19138 tons, and the operating rate was 49.93%. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium - spodumene production increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be widely volatile, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Production situation**: The latest weekly production increased by 7.2% to 87801 tons. The number of open furnaces increased by 13 to 297, and the furnace - opening rate was 37%. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be strongly volatile, as the price is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises [11]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: It is the focus of anti - involution, and the spot price has rebounded. The component procurement and bidding price has increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Oil prices rebounded slightly due to geopolitical risks, stable spot - market decline, and unexpected inventory reduction in the US. - **Outlook**: There may be slight short - term upward space, but the long - term outlook is bearish [12]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and the rebound of international crude - oil prices, the spot market has recovered slightly, and the basis decline has paused. However, inventory reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be weakly volatile in the near term [13]. PX - **Market situation**: PTA demand has decreased due to low processing fees and planned outages. PX is supported by petrochemical capacity adjustment, but the device load is at a medium - low level. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [13]. PTA - **Market situation**: Driven by capacity adjustment and a temporary shutdown of a device in Huizhou, the futures price has risen, and the basis has recovered. Downstream operating rates have recovered to 90%, and inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: Port inventory decreased to 54.3 tons. Restrictions on petrochemical capacity have provided support, but the supply pressure is still large after the restart of syngas - based devices. - **Outlook**: Downstream operating - rate recovery will support prices, but beware of crude - oil cost fluctuations when going long at low prices [14]. Short - fiber - **Market situation**: Driven by the sector's rebound, short - fiber prices rose slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the operating rate rebounded slightly, with limited inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: It may continue to be shorted in the medium term following the polyester sector [15][16]. Methanol - **Market situation**: Inland devices restarted, and the arrival of goods was concentrated, putting pressure on prices. However, the reflux window is about to open, and MTO devices plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile [16]. PP - **Market situation**: Device operating rates increased, and new capacity is to be put into production, increasing supply pressure. Downstream operating rates increased slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [16]. LLDPE - **Market situation**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand shows signs of a turnaround. "Supply - side" speculation provides some support. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract is short - term weak, focusing on demand and inventory - building [16]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market situation**: The Pro Farmer report estimated the new - crop soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, slightly lower than the USDA report. Policy expectations have improved, and the impact of the historical exemption of US soybean oil is limited, providing support for the market. - **Outlook**: It may rise, but beware of seasonal pressure during the harvest season [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The rumor of imported - soybean auctions has stabilized supply expectations. - **Supply and demand outlook**: Supply is sufficient in the third quarter, and supply and demand may shrink in the fourth quarter, with a strong cost expectation. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly widened. - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal still has room for upward fluctuations [17][18]. Fats and Oils - **Market situation**: US soybean oil prices rose due to stable policy expectations. International soybean and palm oil prices rose, and domestic oils may continue the upward trend. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has the potential for a low - valuation rebound. Palm oil may enter a volatile phase. - **Outlook**: Domestic oils may continue the upward trend, and palm oil may be volatile [18]. Corn - **Market situation**: In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as last year, and the carry - over inventory is low. - **Outlook**: The futures price has entered a relatively undervalued range, and there is little possibility of breaking through last year's range [18]. Live Pigs - **Market situation**: Pig weight has decreased, and the price difference between fattened and standard pigs has increased. Some secondary fattening has increased, but the overall replenishment volume is limited. The "inspection for every vehicle and every pig" policy in September will increase transportation costs. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment for the fourth quarter is pessimistic [19].

Core Viewpoint - Recent calls by Trump for China to increase soybean imports from the U.S. highlight the potential mutual benefits, yet there has been no response from China [1] Group 1: Historical Context of U.S.-China Soybean Trade - In 2016, China imported 36 million tons of soybeans from the U.S., accounting for 42% of total U.S. soybean exports [3] - The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in 2018 led to a significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, dropping to 16.64 million tons in the following year, a decrease of over 50% [3] - By 2023, U.S. soybean inventories reached a record high of 1.5 billion bushels, and soybean futures prices fell by 28% compared to 2018 [3] Group 2: Current Trade Dynamics and Policies - Trump has expressed willingness to negotiate lower soybean tariffs with China, emphasizing the simplicity of the trade relationship [5] - China's stance is based on principles of trade equality, asserting that procurement decisions are driven by market forces rather than political pressure [5] - The U.S. agricultural sector has faced significant challenges, with an average annual reduction of $12 billion in soybean export revenue due to lost market share in China [5] Group 3: China's Import Strategy and Market Stability - China is diversifying its soybean import sources, signing long-term agreements with Brazil and increasing imports from Argentina by 70% over five years [6][8] - In 2023, China's total soybean imports reached 108 million tons, fulfilling over 90% of domestic processing needs [8] - The stability of soybean supply has been maintained, with fluctuations in soybean meal prices kept within 5%, supporting the livestock industry [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Trade Implications - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges, with 12,000 farmers going bankrupt and over 30,000 layoffs in related processing companies [8] - There is potential for cooperation in the soybean trade, as China's stable demand could alleviate U.S. farmers' surplus issues, while U.S. soybeans can enhance China's food supply [8] - The global trade landscape is shifting, with emerging soybean-exporting countries like Brazil and Argentina gaining prominence, emphasizing the need for a commitment to free trade principles [8]

Group 1 - The core issue is that U.S. soybean farmers are facing a significant decline in orders from China, with 8 million tons of soybean orders redirected to South America due to ongoing trade tensions [1] - Chinese importers have completed their soybean purchases for September, with plans to buy an additional 4 million tons in October, effectively excluding the U.S. from the market [1] - The decline in soybean orders has led to a drop in Chicago soybean futures prices, reaching a nearly five-year low, which negatively impacts the economy of U.S. agricultural states [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's trade policies, particularly the tariff war, are seen as detrimental to both U.S. and Chinese interests, with no clear winners emerging from the conflict [3][5] - Despite previous opportunities for cooperation, the U.S. has continued to impose tariffs and threats, undermining potential agricultural exports to China [5][7] - The negative effects of the tariff war are becoming evident, particularly for industries reliant on foreign trade and consumers, raising concerns about the sustainability of Trump's political support among farmers and workers [7][9]

Group 1 - China's recent purchase of $100 million in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a strategic geopolitical move amidst ongoing financial tensions [1] - In contrast, Japan and the UK significantly increased their holdings, with Japan adding $12.6 billion and the UK $48.7 billion, highlighting China's relatively minor adjustment [1] - Despite the small increase, China's total holdings remain at $756.4 billion, significantly lower than the trillion-dollar levels maintained before 2022, indicating a cautious approach [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's decision to refrain from imposing new tariffs on Chinese purchases of Russian oil coincides with China's bond purchase, suggesting a leverage effect in trade negotiations [3] - Trump's call for a fourfold increase in soybean orders from China reflects the urgency of U.S. agricultural interests, as American soybean exports to China have drastically declined [4][6] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a soybean production of 125 million tons by 2025, yet the lack of orders from China raises concerns about market stability [6] Group 3 - China's strategy of increasing bond holdings while simultaneously withholding soybean orders illustrates a dual approach to maintain financial leverage while resisting political pressure [8] - The current U.S. soybean inventory has reached a nine-year high, with prices nearing cost levels, indicating a critical situation for American farmers [8] - The diversification of China's soybean imports from countries like Brazil and Argentina demonstrates a strategic shift away from reliance on U.S. agricultural products [6][8]

Group 1 - The core issue of the trade war is that while the U.S. believes it is in control, China has successfully partnered with Brazil and India, shifting the agricultural power dynamics globally [1][5] - The U.S. soybean market share in China has plummeted from 34% to 18%, while Brazil has increased its share to 70%, indicating a significant shift in supply chain dependencies [3] - The price of Brazilian soybeans is significantly lower at $580 per ton compared to U.S. soybeans at $1,026 per ton after tariffs, making Brazilian products more competitive [3] Group 2 - The U.S. business community is struggling to mitigate the impacts of tariffs, with inventory turnover rates decreasing and costs rising across various sectors, including automotive and retail [7] - The tariffs have led to increased prices for a wide range of products, from coffee to automobiles, disproportionately affecting lower-income consumers [7] - The ongoing trade tensions are causing significant economic strain, with U.S. farmers and businesses facing mounting pressure to adapt to the changing market landscape [1][5][7]

Group 1 - Chinese buyers are shifting their soybean orders primarily to Brazil during the peak procurement season, leaving U.S. soybean exporters facing significant sales challenges [1][3] - The U.S. soybean industry is experiencing unprecedented pressure, with a more than 30% year-on-year increase in soybean inventory over the past two years, leading to storage shortages in some regions [3] - The income of U.S. farmers has sharply declined since the trade war began, with a 15% year-on-year increase in farm bankruptcies reported last year [3] Group 2 - The U.S. trade policy is criticized for its double standards, imposing high tariffs on Chinese products while simultaneously hoping for large purchases of U.S. soybeans from China [5] - The ongoing difficulties in the U.S. soybean industry are not seen as a short-term issue, and without policy adjustments, the U.S. risks losing the critical Chinese market permanently [5] - The influence of U.S. economic hegemony is gradually diminishing, as more countries seek diversified trade partnerships, challenging the traditional U.S.-led trade order [7]

Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - Neil Bush's statement highlights that China does not harbor hostility towards the U.S., suggesting that the U.S. narrative is misleading [1] - In July, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 11.67 million tons, primarily sourced from Brazil rather than the U.S. [1] - The U.S. soybean industry faces significant challenges due to tariffs and competition from Brazil, with U.S. soybean prices dropping below production costs [4] Group 2: China's Agricultural Adaptations - China has reduced soybean consumption by nearly 8 million tons annually through the promotion of low-protein feed technology [5] - Domestic soybean production in Northeast China has increased to over 23 million tons, raising the self-sufficiency rate from 15% in 2017 to 30% [5] - In 2024, China's soybean imports are projected at 105 million tons, with only 22.13 million tons from the U.S., a 5.7% decrease year-on-year [5] Group 3: U.S. Policy Contradictions - The U.S. government's hardline stance contrasts with China's measured responses, as seen in the recent trade talks where 24% of tariffs were suspended for 90 days [9] - Neil Bush's remarks reflect the absurdity of U.S. policies that simultaneously impose tariffs on China while expecting increased soybean purchases [9] - The U.S. political landscape is characterized by a tendency to blame China for domestic issues, which may hinder effective policy-making [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic support to Brazil in response to the aggressive tariff policies imposed by the Trump administration, highlighting the economic and political implications of this support for Brazil and the broader geopolitical landscape [1][3][4]. Economic Impact - The Trump administration imposed tariffs as high as 50% on Brazilian goods, severely impacting key sectors such as coffee and beef, leading to a significant drop in Brazil's foreign exchange income [1][3]. - China's expected foreign trade volume exceeds $1.3 trillion this year, providing substantial economic support to Brazil, akin to a "super ammunition depot" [3][5]. - In July, Brazil's soybean exports to China reached 4.812 million tons, reinforcing China's position as Brazil's largest soybean buyer [3]. Political Implications - Following China's support, Brazil's government initiated a formal request for consultations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding the U.S. tariffs, marking a significant step in global resistance against U.S. economic bullying [4]. - The Brazilian government is also investigating corruption cases involving former President Bolsonaro, asserting judicial independence and resisting U.S. interference in domestic affairs [4][5]. Strategic Cooperation - Brazil's advisor praised the "iron friendship" with China, expressing a desire to deepen cooperation within the BRICS framework and enhance trade relations [5]. - The deepening of China-Brazil trade cooperation is expected to stabilize supply chains and enhance China's ability to counter U.S. decoupling strategies [5]. - Brazil has increased its reserve of Renminbi to 12% and signed a 190 billion Renminbi currency swap agreement with China, facilitating direct trade settlements in local currencies [5]. Conclusion - The economic defense strategy culminated in a win-win scenario for both China and Brazil, with China solidifying its strategic partnership and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, while the U.S. risks diminishing its global influence due to its tariff policies [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - **Black Metals**: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - **Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - **Outlook**: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - **Cost and Outlook**: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - **Demand**: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - **Macro Factors**: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Cost**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - **Demand**: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - **Supply**: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Trends**: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - **Outlook**: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - **Cost and Market**: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - **Market Situation**: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - **Market Indicators**: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - **Outlook**: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - **Supply - Demand**: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Indicators**: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - **Supply**: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].