- Model Name: Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from the analyst-recommended stock pool[17] - Model Construction Process: The model is constructed by first creating an analyst-recommended stock pool based on analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial coverage by analysts, and unexpected events in analyst report titles. Then, stocks in the pool are selected based on both fundamental and technical dimensions. The backtest period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025. The annualized return of the portfolio is 19.11%, with an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks[17] - Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days[23] - Factor Construction Process: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price is a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the fallback magnitude[23] - Factor Evaluation: The factor effectively captures the momentum effect in the Hong Kong stock market[21][23] Model Backtest Results - Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio, Annualized Return: 19.11%, Excess Return: 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio, 2025 Performance: Absolute Return: 53.23%, Excess Return: 25.46% relative to the Hang Seng Index[18] Factor Backtest Results - 250-Day New High Distance, Selected Stocks: Modern Dairy, etc., with the highest number of stocks in the cyclical sector[23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) in driving industrial upgrades and urban innovation, aligning with China's dual carbon strategy and the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][38]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The 2025 ESG Development Forum and the 12th China Urban Innovation High-Quality Development Forum were held in Beijing, focusing on ESG practices and urban innovation [1]. - The event gathered leaders from various sectors including real estate, energy, technology, and finance to discuss core pathways for ESG implementation [1]. - The forum was co-hosted by multiple organizations, highlighting its significance as an influential annual event in the industry [1]. Group 2: Key Speakers and Insights - Notable speakers included former vice president of the China Real Estate Association, Miao Leru, who provided insights on the real estate market outlook for 2026 and the industry's ESG transformation [6]. - Li Xiaolin, chairman of Lindar Group, discussed the symbiotic relationship between social responsibility and high-quality development, emphasizing a cycle of "responsibility empowering development" [8][9]. - Zhang Peng, chairman of Contemporary Real Estate, shared the company's exploration in ESG system construction and highlighted the upcoming IPO of 51WORLD on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The forum featured discussions on the integration of ESG principles into various industries, with a focus on collaborative efforts for high-quality development [30]. - The establishment of the All-Domain Digital Huabiao Industry Development Center was announced, aiming to merge technological advancements with industry resources for enhanced data security and innovation [22][24]. - The event also highlighted the importance of digital transformation in addressing industry pain points and fostering sustainable development [26]. Group 4: Awards and Recognitions - The 12th China Real Estate Huabiao Awards recognized outstanding contributions in various categories, including lifetime achievement and innovation in real estate [35][37]. - Awards were given to companies and individuals who demonstrated excellence in ESG practices and high-quality development, reflecting the industry's commitment to sustainable growth [35][37]. Group 5: Future Directions - The forum concluded with a call for continued collaboration and innovation in ESG practices, positioning it as a key driver for future urban development and industrial upgrades [38]. - The emphasis on ESG as a core competitive advantage for companies and a critical factor for urban development was reiterated, setting the stage for future initiatives [38].

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration in 2025 significantly disrupted the post-war multilateral trade system, transforming tariffs from temporary trade relief measures into a normalized tool for negotiation [2][5] - The tariffs imposed varied widely by country, with the UK and Australia facing a 10% baseline tariff, while countries like Vietnam and Cambodia faced punitive tariffs as high as 46% and 49% respectively [2][5] - The policy has led to a shift from global multilateral trade to regional cooperation and bilateral agreements, indicating a profound adjustment in global trade dynamics [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated in 2025, significantly impacting global financial markets, triggered by the breakdown of US-Iran nuclear negotiations [6][7] - The military actions taken by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities resulted in a sharp decline in US stock indices and a surge in oil prices, reflecting heightened market volatility due to geopolitical tensions [7][9] - The subsequent military response from the US and the eventual ceasefire highlighted the complex interplay of military and economic factors in shaping market reactions [9] Group 3: Economic Legislation - The "Big Beautiful Act" signed by Trump is projected to increase US debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, permanently extending tax cuts and significantly altering social welfare programs [10][12] - The act's provisions include substantial tax changes and cuts to healthcare programs, which are expected to have long-term implications for the US economy and public health insurance coverage [12][13] - Critics, including prominent figures like Elon Musk, argue that the act could lead to significant job losses and negatively impact future industries, particularly in renewable energy [14] Group 4: Government Shutdown - The US government experienced its longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, due to a budget impasse between the two parties, which had significant repercussions on federal operations and economic data releases [15][16] - The shutdown affected approximately 750,000 federal employees and led to delays in critical economic indicators, which could influence monetary policy decisions [16] Group 5: Monetary Policy Divergence - In 2025, the Federal Reserve faced unprecedented challenges to its independence, with political pressures influencing monetary policy decisions, including discussions about future leadership [22] - A historical divergence in global monetary policy emerged, with the Fed continuing to lower interest rates while other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, began to raise rates, reshaping asset pricing globally [23][24] - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates to 0.75% marked a significant shift in its monetary policy, raising concerns about potential liquidity shocks in global markets [25][26] Group 6: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a historic surge, with gold prices surpassing $4,500, driven by geopolitical risks, supply shortages, and strong investment demand [28][33] - Silver and other precious metals also saw significant price increases, indicating a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [28][33] - The decline of the US dollar, which fell nearly 10% in 2025, further fueled the rise in precious metals, reflecting a profound shift in the global financial landscape [33][36]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has significant implications for both individual investors and the broader Chinese economy, with the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Individuals - Individuals holding USD deposits are experiencing negative returns due to the RMB's appreciation, as seen in the case of a resident who lost approximately 1,033 RMB on a USD deposit despite earning interest [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the RMB's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies, with one family saving around 17,000 RMB on exchange costs compared to earlier in the year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is driven by a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6]. - The recent trend of RMB appreciation is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, as it enhances the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets to foreign investors [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - A stronger RMB is likely to lower import costs for raw materials and advanced technology, supporting China's economic transition from price competition to brand and technology diversification [8]. - Industries reliant on imports, such as energy and agriculture, as well as sectors with significant USD liabilities, are expected to benefit from the RMB's appreciation [8]. Group 4: Capital Market Effects - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to attract capital inflows, benefiting various asset classes including stocks and bonds, through valuation enhancement, increased foreign investment, and improved market confidence [9]. - A 0.1 percentage point increase in the RMB's value could lead to a 3% to 5% increase in stock valuations, making RMB-denominated assets more appealing to foreign investors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving role of the Chinese yuan (RMB) in the global financial system, highlighting its increasing significance as a currency for trade and reserves, as the dominance of the US dollar shows signs of weakening [1]. Group 1: RMB in Trade - The shift in trade practices is evident, with countries like Brazil and China moving towards direct currency settlements, reducing reliance on the US dollar [3]. - In 2023, the share of RMB in Brazil's foreign exchange transactions rose to 5.1%, indicating a growing trend of using RMB for trade settlements [5]. - A landmark event occurred in March 2023 when China National Offshore Oil Corporation completed its first LNG purchase settled in RMB, marking a significant breakthrough in the energy sector [5]. Group 2: RMB as a Reserve Currency - The RMB is transitioning from being a settlement currency to a reserve currency, with its share in global allocated foreign exchange reserves reaching 2.13% by the end of Q3 2024, making it the fifth-largest reserve currency globally [9]. - The increasing trust in RMB is reflected in its growing inclusion in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and financial institutions [11]. - The establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitates RMB transactions globally, with 1,482 participants covering 186 countries and regions [11]. Group 3: Impact on Individuals - The internationalization of the RMB affects everyday life, particularly for businesses engaged in foreign trade, allowing them to mitigate exchange rate risks by quoting prices in RMB [16]. - Importers benefit from the strengthened purchasing power of the RMB, leading to lower costs for imported goods and enhancing the consumer experience [18]. - New financial products and services, such as the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect," enable residents to invest directly in overseas assets, simplifying the process of cross-border transactions [20].

Core Insights - The "Climate Resource Economic Blue Book" released by the China Meteorological Administration emphasizes the transformation of climate resources into goods and services through policies, market mechanisms, and technological innovation, aiming for sustainable utilization and economic growth while ensuring food security and improving public welfare [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Insights - Agricultural climate resource assessment aids in food security, revealing that the corn planting area in Northeast China has expanded by approximately 6.1 million acres due to climate warming [2]. Group 2: Energy Sector Insights - China possesses abundant wind and solar energy resources, but their development efficiency is constrained by meteorological factors. Improved forecasting accuracy for wind and solar energy can reduce disaster loss ratios and optimize grid scheduling [2]. Group 3: Tourism Sector Insights - Climate landscapes, such as cloud seas and sunrises, are emerging as new growth points for local economies. In Chongqing, a study based on temperature and humidity indices identified regions with a mild climate suitable for tourism, and a weather index forecast was developed to help tourists understand local weather conditions [2]. Group 4: Health and Wellness Insights - Research on health meteorology indicates significant correlations between meteorological factors and diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems. Accurate forecasting can help reduce morbidity rates, and a collaborative approach involving multiple departments can enhance public health response capabilities, providing essential technological support for a better health service system [2]. Group 5: Overall Significance - As China's first climate resource economic blue book, it provides scientific support for the efficient transformation of climate resources, serving the dual carbon goals and ecological civilization construction, and offers scientific references for research, government decision-making, industrial innovation, and climate governance [2].

欧洲一直以来自诩为文明的灯塔，但如今的困境，犹如五百年历史积累的沉重负担突然爆发，带来剧烈 的痛感。 很多人认为，欧洲的衰退是由疫情、能源危机或地缘冲突引起的。但如果你把时间线往回 推，你会得出一个与常理相悖的结论：欧洲并不是突然变弱，而是长期透支的基本结构终于同时暴露出 来。 这才是问题真正的根源所在。 过去十年，欧洲以为可以平稳过渡，但现实却远比他们预期的要严峻得多。第一个开始崩塌的是美国这 根支柱。随着美国国内优先政策的兴起，美国对于欧洲安全的支持耐心已经逐渐消耗殆尽。长期以来， 欧洲习惯了低投入，高享受，但当美国要求欧洲承担更多安全责任时，欧洲才意识到，安全从来都不是 免费的午餐。 第二根支柱断裂的是俄罗斯的能源支持。俄乌冲突爆发后，欧洲失去了廉价天然气供 应，这暴露了欧洲工业的弱点。能源价格剧烈波动，制造业成本大幅上涨，传统的工业强国如德国、荷 兰等，也在失去多年竞争力的情况下感到压力倍增。 第三根支柱变化的是中国制造。过去，中国提供 的低价商品帮助欧洲维持了较低的生活成本。但如今，中国已经向高端制造、电动车、光伏等领域跃 升，欧洲市场的空间正受到挤压，贸易摩擦也日益加剧。 如今，许多欧洲人把福利、 ...

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．澳大利亚12月PMI初值呈现分化，综合扩张动能创7个月新低。 2025年12月16日，标普全球公布的澳大利亚12月PMI初值数据显示，该国私营部门经济呈现明显分化态势，综合PMI扩张动能有所放缓。具体来看，制造 业PMI初值由11月的51.6升至52.2，延续扩张态势且增速小幅加快，主要得益于商品新订单的增长以及强劲的商品出口表现，有效抵消了服务业出口的疲 软；而服务业商业活动指数则从52.8回落至51.0，增速明显放缓成为拖累整体经济扩张节奏的主要因素。受服务业表现疲软影响，综合PMI初值由前值 52.6降至51.1，尽管连续第15个月保持在50荣枯线以上的扩张区间，但已创下7个月来的最低增速。 从市场核心观察点来看，12月澳大利亚民企整体新订单仍保持稳固增加，为产出增长提供了基础，只是整体增长率较前期有所放缓。就业市场方面，企业 为应对现有工作量持续增聘员工，就业数据保持增长态势。企业信心层面表现亮眼，信心指数升至6月以来的最高水平，显示出企业对未来产出前景的乐 观预期。不过，行业内部积压工作情况呈现分化，制造业积压工作有所增加，但服务业积压已连续第8个月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has not stabilized after recent overseas interest rate cuts, primarily due to two internal liquidity issues: the implementation of new public fund benchmark regulations, which may lead to selling of some Hong Kong stocks, and a significant demand for funds in the Hong Kong market. However, the overall impact of these issues is considered limited [1]. Group 1: Industry and Index Recommendations - Recommended sectors include Internet (930604.CSI), Non-ferrous Metals (931947.CSI), and Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-bank Financials (931024.CSI) [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong market showed mixed performance last week (12/08-12/12), with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.42% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.43%. The AH premium remains at 119.8. Among major sectors, only Financials and Information Technology saw gains, while the Energy sector experienced the largest decline [2]. Group 3: Micro Funding Conditions - For the first time in six months, there was a net outflow of southbound funds, while both Hong Kong and foreign capital saw net inflows. Specifically, southbound funds had a net outflow of 3.4 billion HKD, primarily directed towards non-essential consumption. Foreign capital net bought 260 million USD through ETFs, with cumulative net inflows nearing a new high since 1994. Local Hong Kong ETFs also saw a net inflow of 5.1 billion HKD, totaling 45.9 billion HKD year-to-date [2]. Group 4: Hong Kong Liquidity Changes - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is becoming more accommodative, with the overnight Hibor at 1.71% and the 3-month Hibor at 3.03%. The USD to HKD exchange rate is at 7.78, approaching the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking [2]. Group 5: Overseas Liquidity Changes - In the U.S., the 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.522% (down 36 basis points), while the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.182% (up 47 basis points). The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance is at 80.58 billion USD (a weekly decrease of 10.27 billion USD), and the usage of overnight reverse repos (ONRRP) has decreased to 8.4 billion USD (a weekly decrease of 650 million USD) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance funds are significantly increasing their market participation under regulatory encouragement for long-term investment, with a notable impact on market stability [2][8]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Activities - On December 5, 2025, Ruizhong Life Insurance purchased 200,000 shares of Qingdao Beer H-shares for 10.64 million HKD, raising its total holdings to 32.76 million shares, which is 5% of the total H-share capital [3][4]. - This marks the third time in 2025 that Ruizhong Life has made a significant investment in listed companies, contributing to a total of 38 instances of insurance capital raising stakes in listed companies this year, the highest in nearly a decade [2][9]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered risk factors for insurance companies' related business, aiming to guide long-term capital into the market and support stable capital market operations [8][9]. - As of September 2025, the total investment balance of the insurance industry reached 37.5 trillion CNY, with stock allocations amounting to 3.6 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%, representing 9.67% of total investments [9]. Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment of long-term investment stock risk factors indicates a relaxation of regulatory constraints on insurance capital's equity asset allocation, responding to market expectations for long-term capital entry [9]. - The surge in insurance capital's market activities, including Ruizhong Life's recent actions, reflects a broader trend of increased institutional investment in the capital market, which is crucial for the stability and high-quality development of the real economy [9].