1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Industry Information - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Core View - The US-China talks this week achieved phased results. According to the US side, China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years. This agreement is expected to significantly reduce the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, shifting from oversupply to a tight balance. The US CBOT soybeans still have some room for price increase [6]. - After the agreement, the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased significantly, driving the price of soybean meal to recover. Short-term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. However, the risk lies in the variability of the macro - policy, i.e., whether this policy will be continuously implemented and the implementation intensity [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3005, the opening price was 3018, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3015, the closing price was 3026, with a rise of 21 and a gain of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,248,829, the open interest was 1,595,045, and the open interest change was - 54,240. - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2947, the opening price was 2961, the highest price was 2986, the lowest price was 2960, the closing price was 2964, with a rise of 17 and a gain of 0.58%. The trading volume was 110,601, the open interest was 449,107, and the open interest change was - 3,049. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2949, the opening price was 2955, the highest price was 2985, the lowest price was 2949, the closing price was 2965, with a rise of 16 and a gain of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,437, the open interest was 3,708, and the open interest change was - 4,246 [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to whether China will purchase US soybeans as scheduled and whether it is a policy - based or commercial purchase [6]. 2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 due to the US government shutdown since October 1 [9]. - The soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 crop year has reached 76.13% of the estimated area, a 16.08 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the sowing progress is still slightly lower than the historical average of the same period and also lower than that of last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "★☆☆" rating to CITIC's five-style stability, indicating a slightly bullish view with limited operability in the market [5]. Core Viewpoints - In the week ending October 17, 2025, Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of -3.39%, 0.21%, and -1.14% respectively. In the public fund market, equity long strategies retreated, pure bonds outperformed, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, and among commodities, precious metal ETFs rose while non-ferrous metal ETFs declined, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. The style rotation chart shows that the growth and consumption styles weakened marginally in terms of relative strength, and the financial style increased significantly in terms of indicator momentum. In the public fund pool, cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style currently in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis showed a marginal recovery trend last week. The IM contract rebounded from below the -2 standard deviation of the three - month average to within one standard deviation, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.49%, while the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns. The win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors increased significantly this week and is currently in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.52%, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [5]. Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, equity long strategies had a drawdown in the past week, pure bonds had better returns, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, precious metal ETFs in commodities had large increases, non - ferrous metal ETFs had a return correction, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs' net values continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. Cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the public fund pool, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis recovered marginally last week, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 2.49%, the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns, and the win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased significantly and is in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the style timing strategy had a return of 0.52% last week, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark [5]. Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report, along with data on the establishment scale of public funds in the past year, the maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months, and the weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices [7]. CITIC Style Index - The net value trends of CITIC's financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable style indices are shown, as well as the relative rotation chart of these style indices, which reflects the relative strength and momentum of different styles in different time periods [8][9]. - The excess return performance of CITIC style - based fund style indices in different time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, annual) is presented, along with the congestion levels of different styles (excluding the stable style due to data limitations) [10][11]. Barra Factors - The preference levels of Barra single - factors (ranging from 0 - 1) are shown, indicating the degree of preference for different factors. The excess return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies in different time periods (weekly, monthly) is also presented, as well as the excess net value trends of Barra single - factor styles since this year [13][14][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]