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A股策略周报:暗藏的变化
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-05 12:23
Group 1: Asset Performance Post Tariff Implementation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, global risk assets have shown a "V"-shaped recovery, with U.S. and European stock markets outperforming Chinese equity assets and demand-side commodities[1] - As of May 2, 2025, U.S. stock indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500) have recovered above their April 2 closing prices, while Chinese assets (e.g., Hang Seng Index, CSI 800) and commodities like copper and oil remain below their April 2 levels[1] - The disparity in asset performance is attributed to different driving factors and recovery rhythms, with demand-related commodities reflecting weaker demand expectations[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated immediate recession concerns, but potential market volatility remains due to ongoing trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - The U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was reported at -0.30%, slightly below expectations, while April's ADP employment growth was only 62,000, compared to the expected 115,000[2] - Structural issues in the U.S. labor market show that manufacturing sector job growth has been negative since October 2023, indicating a shift towards service-oriented job creation[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Adjustments - The April PMI data indicates that the impact of tariffs on China's exports is becoming evident, with new export orders declining significantly[3] - Recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have begun to show signs of engagement, suggesting that policy responses may become clearer as talks progress[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly on May 2, 2025, indicating a positive correlation between Chinese equity assets and the currency, suggesting a potential market revaluation[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Chinese assets are considered to have better value compared to other markets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as consumer goods and services[4] - The report recommends investing in resource products (copper, aluminum, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, steel) as global economic conditions evolve[4] - Financial sectors with low valuations (banks, insurance) are also highlighted as potential safe havens against external shocks[4]
长盛基金王远鸿:关税冲击下,国产替代机遇与挑战并存
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-04-25 09:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. tariff situation has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, yet the A-share market has shown resilience, particularly in themes of self-sufficiency and domestic substitution [1] - The U.S. market has experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and currency, indicating investor uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the dollar's status, while China's capital market has remained stable despite some sector impacts [1] - There is a notable increase in stock buybacks and purchases by listed companies and major shareholders in China, contributing to market stability after recent corrections [1] Group 2 - The tariff policy is expected to accelerate the process of domestic substitution, especially for companies whose products are competitive with U.S. suppliers [2] - The semiconductor industry is identified as the primary battleground for domestic substitution, with opportunities across design, equipment, and materials sectors [2] - Increased tariffs on CPUs are anticipated to benefit Chinese CPU companies, while the software ecosystem remains a critical factor for certain sectors [2] Group 3 - The investment landscape presents both opportunities and challenges, emphasizing the need to assess company competitiveness and preparedness [3] - The focus for the second quarter includes sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, and resource products, with a cautious outlook due to ongoing uncertainties [3] - The military industry is expected to recover as China’s defense spending remains relatively low, influenced more by global dynamics and national security needs [3] Group 4 - The funds managed by the company have received top ratings from various authoritative institutions, reflecting a strong performance in sectors with domestic substitution advantages [4] - Specific funds, such as Changsheng High-end Equipment A and Changsheng New Emerging Growth, have achieved multiple five-star ratings across different time frames from several rating agencies [4] - The consistent high ratings indicate a well-regarded investment strategy focused on sectors poised for growth amid current market conditions [4]