Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Group 1: Market Outlook for Each Metal Copper - Market Review: On October 20, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 6,102 lots to 536,600 lots. Spot copper prices had a stable bottom - support, with Shanghai spot copper at a premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventory decreased after the weekend, but downstream procurement was sluggish due to high prices. The North China market was mainly for rigid - demand and long - term order delivery, with low activity [2]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations eased, and the 3rd Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee was in focus. Fundamentally, supply - side disturbances in copper mines increased, with expectations of processing fees dropping to 0 dollars/ton or lower next year. SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from the previous month. Consumption showed a marginal weakening, but rigid demand was resilient [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach, be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads, take profit when the export window opens, and then enter positive spreads again. Consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The Alumina 2601 contract rose 4 yuan to 2,806 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with some regions experiencing price drops [9]. - Logic Analysis: The previous supply - demand surplus in alumina was absorbed by downstream electrolytic aluminum plant stockpiling, but as stockpiling was completed, the surplus became more significant. Some production cuts and maintenance started in October, and more were expected in November [12]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Keep an eye on supply - side changes. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,272 lots to 487,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions also declined [14]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. Economic data releases and important Chinese meetings were in focus. Fundamentally, consumption resilience supported prices [17]. - Trading Strategy: With improved macro - expectations, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum prices, be cautious about chasing high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2512 contract fell 125 yuan to 20,350 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 107 lots. Spot prices in different regions remained stable [22]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supported costs, but high social inventory and warehouse receipts might suppress the upside. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [26]. - Trading Strategy: With improved tariff panic, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum alloy prices, which are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract fell 0.34% to 21,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 7,322 lots to 236,600 lots. Spot trading in Shanghai was mainly among traders, with downstream enterprises having low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. - Logic Analysis: At the mine end, import losses of zinc ore increased, and domestic processing fees declined. At the smelting end, although profits were narrowed, smelters' enthusiasm remained high. Consumption was expected to weaken as the traditional peak season passed. An external - strong and internal - weak pattern was likely to continue [35]. - Trading Strategy: Partially liquidate profitable short positions and re - short at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [37]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 contract rose 0.12% to 17,090 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 1,361 lots to 81,300 lots. Spot prices increased slightly, and downstream battery manufacturers had a certain purchasing willingness [39]. - Logic Analysis: With the resumption of production of secondary lead and the increase in primary lead production in mid - to - late October, lead supply might increase, and prices were at risk of falling [41]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 fell 630 yuan to 120,860 yuan/ton, with the index adding 7,691 lots. Spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel increased, while those of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment became more volatile. Although nickel ore prices provided cost support, the supply - demand surplus was difficult to reverse. Nickel prices were expected to oscillate widely with a downward trend [47]. - Trading Strategy: Short when prices rebound to the upper limit of the oscillation range. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 fell 20 yuan to 12,595 yuan/ton, with the index reducing 5,239 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were at certain levels [52]. - Logic Analysis: The spot price was below the steel mill's cost. Terminal demand in October was still not optimistic, and steel mills might further cut production. Stainless steel was likely to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect weak oscillations. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage [56]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 279,340 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton or 0.72%, with positions decreasing by 1,300 lots to 63,665 lots. Spot prices were stable, and downstream purchasing improved slightly [59]. - Logic Analysis: Trade uncertainties and concerns in the US credit market pressured LME metals. Although Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining, the impact on tin production was limited. Supply was still tight, and demand recovered slowly. Tin prices were expected to oscillate weakly [61]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to macro - disturbances. Temporarily hold off on options trading [62]. Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon production cuts would be negative for industrial silicon demand. Before large - scale production cuts in Southwest industrial silicon plants, there was a slight surplus, and prices were under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, price support might appear after production cuts in November [67]. - Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for a full correction. There are no arbitrage and option strategies for now [68]. Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: In November, leading manufacturers' production cuts would significantly improve the supply - demand balance. Currently, with no further news on capacity integration, some funds left the market, and the futures price might correct further [75]. - Strategy Suggestion: Avoid long positions in the short term. Hold reverse spreads of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3300, - 3000). Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, take profit on the put option and hold the call option [77]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The Lithium Carbonate 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 75,940 yuan/ton, with the index adding 387 lots and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 19 to 30,705 tons. Spot prices increased [81]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and lithium ore prices also increased. Although imports in September decreased, demand was strong, and prices might rise further if supply risks occurred [83]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [86]. Group 2: Important Industry Data Copper - Inventory: As of October 20, SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 9,100 tons to 186,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Imported copper supply was expected to continue, while domestic supply was expected to decrease. Consumption was expected to slightly recover, and weekly inventory might decrease [3]. - Production: Zijin Mining's copper production from January to September was 830,000 tons, up 5% year - on - year. In Q3, production was 260,000 tons, down 6% quarter - on - quarter [6]. - Trade: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,586,873.52 tons, down 6.24% month - on - month but up 6.43% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, up 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year [3][4]. Alumina - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, up 115,000 tons from the previous week. Some electrolytic aluminum plants increased long - term order execution and spot purchases, but transportation issues affected inventory distribution [11]. - Trade: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, up 36.5% month - on - month and 82.3% year - on - year; imported 60,000 tons, down 36.4% month - on - month but up 61.7% year - on - year [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Inventory: On October 20, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 620,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday [16]. - Production: From January to September, real estate development data showed a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area [16]. Zinc - Inventory: As of October 20, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [31]. - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 505,400 tons of zinc concentrates, up 8.15% month - on - month and 24.94% year - on - year; imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc, down 11.6% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [31][32]. Lead - Inventory: As of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from October 13 [40]. - Trade: In September 2025, lead concentrate imports increased 11.72% month - on - month but decreased 7.21% year - on - year. Refined lead exports decreased 46% month - on - month, and imports decreased 17.17% month - on - month [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 19,596.90 tons of lithium carbonate, down 10.30% month - on - month but up 20.49% year - on - year; exported 150.82 tons, down 59.12% month - on - month and 9.08% year - on - year [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply disruptions, low processing fees, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. The overall view is to buy on dips cautiously [2][7][8]. - The alumina market has a static surplus, and prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of enterprises [11][15][16]. - The aluminum market's mid - term upward trend remains unchanged. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and consumption shows resilience [18][19][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is less affected by the US tariff policy. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices, and the short - term view is to buy on dips [26][28][29]. - The zinc market has an oversupply situation. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [31][34][36]. - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with supply being weaker. There is a risk of price decline in the second half of the month, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [38][39][40]. - The nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is advisable [42][44][45]. - The stainless steel market has high inventory and low prices. The price is still under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [49][50][52]. - The tin market has tight supply at the mine end, slow demand recovery, and prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [55][59][60]. - The industrial silicon market is under short - term price pressure, but there is a possibility of balance sheet repair in November. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [62][63][64]. - The polysilicon market may experience a short - term correction, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Buying on dips is recommended [69][70][71]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and short - term price strength. The view is to be bullish on the short - term trend [75][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,050 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced positions by 10,111 lots to 546,200 lots. Shanghai spot premiums stabilized, while Guangdong's inventory ended a 5 - day increase, and North China's procurement was weak [2]. - **Important Information**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 242,740 tons. From January to August 2025, it was about 1.81 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year. As of October 16, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 177,500 tons compared to Monday. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the decline in copper processing and refining fees [3][4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroscopically, the US employment market is cooling, and Powell may support interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, supply disruptions at the copper mine end increase, and processing fees are expected to decline. Consumption is weak, but there may be an increase in demand after price corrections [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - term cross - market arbitrage positions, and start cross - period arbitrage after domestic inventory decline. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 9 yuan to 2,790 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [10]. - **Related Information**: On October 15, some aluminum plants made purchases. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan were in a loss situation, and an enterprise in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The static surplus of alumina is absorbed by downstream stocking, but the surplus trend remains. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and more production cuts may occur in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,975 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Related Information**: China's September economic data showed some improvements. The US tariff policy on China was uncertain, and on October 15, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [18]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum prices is expected to be less severe than in April. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and the mid - term upward trend remains unchanged [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 90 yuan to 20,490 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [26]. - **Related Information**: The US tariff policy was uncertain, and on October 15, the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased slightly, while the warehouse receipts decreased [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum alloy prices is limited. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract decreased by 0.32% to 21,965 yuan/ton. The spot market had low trading volume, and downstream purchasing was weak [31][33]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 162,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of zinc in 2025 and 2026 [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: At the mine end, domestic production may decrease, and imported zinc concentrate is in a loss situation. At the smelting end, production is expected to increase. Consumption is expected to weaken. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold short positions and add short positions on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Lead - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Lead 2512 contract increased by 0.26% to 17,130 yuan/ton. The spot market had average trading volume [38]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 37,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of lead in 2025 and 2026 [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was low. After the National Day, inventory decreased. In the second half of October, supply may increase, and prices may decline [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to decline from high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 250 to 121,270 yuan/ton. Spot premiums showed an upward trend [42]. - **Related Information**: In August 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The global nickel market is expected to be oversupplied until 2030. LME nickel inventory is increasing [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory increase indicates high export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises, and prices are under pressure [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [45][46][47]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 increased by 60 to 12,615 yuan/ton. Spot prices were weak and stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports. The national stainless steel inventory decreased slightly [50][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are rising, but 300 - series cold - rolled inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. The current price is lower than the factory cost, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: On October 16, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,350 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The spot price decreased slightly [55]. - **Related Information**: Peru's tin production increased in August. In August 2025, the global refined tin supply was in short supply. Indonesia's tin production is expected to recover in 2026 [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US may cut interest rates. The supply at the tin mine end is tight, and the processing fee is low. Demand is recovering slowly. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be volatile at high levels. Wait and see for options [60][61]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: On October 11, an environmental impact assessment of a silicon project was announced [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors of polysilicon production cuts are negative for industrial silicon demand. In the short term, there is a slight surplus, and prices are under pressure. In November, there may be production cuts, and the balance sheet may be repaired [63]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64][65][66]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform is false [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term rise was due to false rumors, and prices may correct. But capacity integration is progressing, and production is expected to decrease in November and December, with a possible slight inventory reduction [70]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips after a short - term correction. Hold a reverse arbitrage position for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Adjust the previous double - buying strategy [71][72][73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 1,880 to 75,080 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable [75]. - **Important Information**: The government issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities. Hainan Mining shipped lithium concentrate [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production increased, inventory decreased, demand was strong, and prices were supported. Market funds returned, and volatility may increase [76][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on the short - term trend. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2601 contract [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing upward price movement due to large copper mine production cuts, with the current phase being a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle. The supply disruptions in industrial metals are expected to lead to stable price increases, enhancing profits for listed companies in the industry. However, a rapid increase in copper prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation during peak seasons, which is a signal of potential price peaks. Continuous monitoring of inventory changes is necessary [1][14][30] - The aluminum market is approaching a production peak in China, while foreign construction progress is slow. The next two years are expected to see peak production for China's electrolytic aluminum. The domestic aluminum supply-demand balance is fragile, and any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [1][32][38] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating rising employment risks and slowing GDP growth. The Fed's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a potential upward trend in gold prices through 2025 [3][11] Group 3: Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a significant shortage in the global cobalt market over the next two years, leading to a long-term price increase. The lithium market is currently in a state of relative balance, with supply disruptions not fully resolved but demand expectations rising [4][5][12] Group 4: Minor Metals - The strategic importance of minor metals is increasing, with export controls on rare earths tightening. The price of rare earth minerals has seen significant increases, with prices for certain products rising by 37% quarter-on-quarter. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [6][13][15] Group 5: Tin - Global visible tin inventories have significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022. This trend indicates a tightening supply situation in the tin market [2][41][52]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term adjustments. Alumina prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - grinding market. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strengthen in the medium - term. Nickel prices are expected to have increased volatility and a lower oscillation center. Stainless steel prices are expected to weaken. Tin prices will be in a short - term high - level oscillation. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon prices may have a limited short - term callback. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to reduce inventory and support the price [6][14][20][46][53][60][64][71][76] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 2.06%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced positions by 12,125 lots to 566,100 lots. The spot market trading improved with price drops, and the premium in Shanghai rose [2] - **Important Information**: As of October 13, the national copper inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 17.2 million tons. In September, China imported 2.587 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import from January to September was 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 521,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks and supply - side problems have affected copper prices. Mine supply tension has intensified, and consumption shows "not prosperous in the peak season", but there may be an increase in demand after price adjustments [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline. Keep options on hold [7][8][9] Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 57 yuan to 2,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions declined [10] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang purchased 10,000 tons of alumina on October 13. As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. In September, the actual production of alumina was 8.06 million tons, the net export was about 80,000 tons, and the demand was 7.552 million tons [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by market sentiment, alumina prices fell. Although the static surplus has been absorbed, the surplus trend remains. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading shows a weak and volatile trend. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [15][16] Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 205 yuan to 20,885 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. In September, the national electrolytic aluminum weighted average full - cost was 15,977 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4,798 yuan/ton. On October 13, the national aluminum ingot spot inventory was 642,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons [17] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the medium - term upward trend remains. The market may have large - amplitude fluctuations [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Be on the sidelines in the short - term for single - side trading, and the medium - term trend is upward. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [21][22][23] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 20,335 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [25] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. On October 13, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased by 703 tons, and the casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased by 2,503 tons [25][26] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in prices. Before the implementation of tariffs is clear, the negative impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum products is significant. The price will be weak, and scrap aluminum prices may support the spot price [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to tariff policy developments for single - side trading. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [28][29][31] Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Zinc 2511 dropped 0.58% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced positions by 2,771 lots to 212,600 lots. The spot market trading was light [32] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national zinc ingot inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from September 29 [33] - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc smelters increased production, and consumption did not improve significantly. The domestic price was under pressure, while the LME price was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may continue [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Close profitable short positions and wait for the export window to open to short again. Keep arbitrage on hold and close out the sold out - of - the - money call options [35][37] Lead - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Lead 2511 dropped 0.18% to 17,095 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased positions by 5,004 lots to 82,700 lots. Part of the downstream replenished inventory, and the spot market had different purchasing attitudes [36] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national lead ingot social inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from September 29. The electric bicycle trade - in policy in Changsha and Shaoyang will be suspended on October 20 [39] - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was relatively low. The inventory decreased during the National Day. The supply is weaker than demand currently, but the supply may increase in the second half of October, and the price may fall after rising [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise in the short - term but fall after rising. Keep arbitrage on hold and sell out - of - the - money call options [41] Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 2,080 yuan to 121,410 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,785 lots. Spot premiums changed [43] - **Related Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit for nickel futures on October 14. Some Indonesian mining companies resumed production. Goldman Sachs predicted that nickel prices would drop by 6% by December 2026 [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Due to the lack of profit - taking and Trump's remarks, the decline was relatively mild. The "de - globalization" trend and the surplus pattern will lead to increased volatility and a lower center of oscillation [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of the main contract. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 205 yuan to 12,655 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 28,538 lots. The spot price range was given [51] - **Important Information**: Indonesia won the stainless - steel anti - dumping lawsuit against the EU, which is expected to boost exports. The national stainless - steel social inventory increased during the holiday [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The escalation of the Sino - US trade war affected external demand, and the inventory increased. The price was under pressure, and the market was waiting to see the inventory digestion this week [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will weaken. Keep arbitrage on hold [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 282,110 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The spot price dropped, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [57] - **Related Information**: The US postponed the release of CPI data. As of October 10, the national tin ingot inventory decreased by 568 tons compared with September 26 [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks led to a price drop. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption recovery [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Keep options on hold [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production capacity in Xinjiang decreased, and the production capacity in the east increased. The southwest may reduce production in November [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: The production decreased in Xinjiang and increased in the east. The southwest will reduce production in November. The demand is strong in the short - term, and the price may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions. There is no arbitrage and option strategy currently [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production increased in October, and the silicon wafer production decreased [70][71] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increased and the demand decreased in October. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November is the core driver of the price callback. The rumored state - purchase may limit the callback space [71] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Try to go long near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Hold the reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 780 yuan to 72,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,306 lots. The spot price dropped [74] - **Important Information**: A lithium project in Jiangxi had major changes. In September, the sales of new - energy vehicles and the production of ternary materials increased [76] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply growth rate is lower than the demand in October, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the price. Consider closing short positions and going long if the price falls below 70,000 yuan [76] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds and close short positions if the price falls below 70,000 yuan. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [77][78][79]