1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

证 券 研 究 报 告 内需复苏加速窗口，新成长方向浮现 2025年纺织服装行业中期投资策略 证券分析师：王立平 A0230511040052 求佳峰 A0230523060001 刘佩 A0230523070002 联系人： 求佳峰 A0230523060001 2025.06.10 ◼ 美国关税博弈预期反复，但不改核心制造全球竞争力，同时推荐高景气新消费制造链 1. 复盘：弱市见高频回购，底部信号显现 2. 户外：低渗透、高成长赛道，空间广阔 3. 服装家纺：内需复苏加速，消费向新求变 4. 纺织制造：关税博弈反复，龙头壁垒不变 5. 投资分析意见：关注景气消费与核心制造 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 复盘25上半年（1/1~6/6），SW纺织服饰指数上涨5.5%，相对申万全A上涨3.6%，相对收益位居全 市场第11位。公司低位高频回购，彰显中长期发展信心，底部信号显现 ◼ 内需复苏重要做多线索，下半年将开启加速回升窗口，挖掘低位浮现的新成长方向 • 高性能运动户外，当前低渗透率，未来高空间：24年中国户外高性能服饰市场规模1027亿元（同比+17%），品 牌市占 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 屠强 摘要 沉星月启：产业" 蜕变"vs政策 "革新"。 转型进入"新阶段"，面临的"新问题"。 2022年以来，转型进入"新阶段"，以地产为代表的传统链条对经济的贡献 出现趋势性下行，经济指标表现分化的同时，产业"冰火两重天"的情况常见。转型"新阶段"，压力更集中在终端 需求，导致PPI承压的同时CPI表现更弱，产能过剩领域转至中下游；更多供给转向海外的过程中，外贸板块内卷 更甚。 转型新阶段，传统政策框架有效性下降，政策"革新"全面启动。 居、企业和地方政府在经历报表冲击的同时，不 同主体间互相影响、修复过程慢于过往周期。传统宏观调控手段的传导机制异化，政策"革新"必要性上升。2024 年9月底以来，政策框架全面优化启动；总量政策空间打开、结构性政策的针对性增强，新阶段的"供给侧改革"呼 之欲出。 产业"蜕变"已成"星火燎原"之势，居民信心筑底现象已现。 历经十余年，新动能占比已"初具规模"，高技术产业 在工业中占比达16.3%，渐成星火燎原之势；近两年悦己消费、体验消费等新消费形式不断涌出。2025年以来，节 假日居民出行意愿等指标，则显示居民短周期信心的" ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-06 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3385.35 | 10183.69 | 3873.98 | 11540.63 | 2866.73 | 991.64 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.03 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.22 | -0.29 | -0.47 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4527.43 | 6992.34 | 2020.34 | 2579.97 | 3229.31 | 175.34 | 晨会主题 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益周报:超长债周报——买断式逆回购操作提前公告，超长债小涨 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数小幅 走弱 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标偏弱，消费表现相对稳健 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 09 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 短期可能迎来"决断" 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—短期可能迎来"决断"——20250608 【宏观】美国经济将迎来至关重要的两个月——兼评 5 月非农就业—— 20250607 【金融工程】市场有望继续上涨——20250608 【金融工程&医药生物】新质生产力布局全球，一键投资 AH 创新药—— 永赢医药创新智选基金投资价值分析——20250608 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数下降——20250607 【固定收益】利率为何能突破前低——20250608 【建筑材料】建材传统淡季来临，预计淡季不淡——20250608 【能源】迎峰度夏有望提振电力需求，新型电力系统试点解决新能源消 纳——20250608 【固定收益】利率下行，杠杆抬升——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250607 【固定收益】如何理解央行预告式买断回购，影响几何？——20250606 【银行】本周聚焦—近期多家银行宣布分红派息——20250608 【能源】复盘煤价止跌的启示——历史如镜、照见兴衰规律—— 20250607 ...

Group 1 - Consumption is a key component of economic activity, connecting production and people's livelihoods, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending to stimulate economic circulation and upgrade industries [1][2] - Economic development is essential for improving living standards, as it leads to GDP growth, increased corporate profits, and more job opportunities, which in turn raises residents' income levels [2][3] - Improvement in living standards can boost consumer confidence and spending, creating a positive feedback loop that supports economic growth and social stability [3][4] Group 2 - Stimulating consumption is crucial for expanding domestic demand, leading to industrial upgrades and innovation, particularly in sectors like automotive and home appliances [4][5] - Consumption upgrades drive traditional industries to transform, pushing companies to invest in technology and brand development to meet changing consumer demands [6][7] - New consumption trends, such as smart home products and mobile payment systems, are emerging, creating opportunities for related industries [7] Group 3 - Policies aimed at increasing residents' income levels are vital, including expanding income sources and improving employment stability through active employment policies [8][9] - Enhancing the social security system is critical for boosting consumer confidence, with a focus on improving pension and healthcare benefits [8][9] - New consumption growth points can be cultivated through support for service industries and the integration of digital technologies in consumption [9][10] Group 4 - Creating a favorable consumption environment involves infrastructure development, market regulation, and consumer rights protection, which are essential for promoting consumption [10]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies optimal entry points for building positions based on historical performance when the annualized discount of CSI 500 futures exceeds a certain threshold, indicating market pessimism. [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the annualized discount rate of the next-month contract of CSI 500 index futures as the key metric. - Historical data from 2017 onwards is analyzed to determine the relationship between the discount rate and subsequent returns. - Key findings: - When the annualized discount exceeds 15%, holding the index for more than 12 trading days results in average cumulative returns trending upward. - Holding for over 33 trading days yields a probability of positive cumulative returns exceeding 50%. - Holding for over 50 trading days increases the probability of positive returns to approximately 60%. - Formula: $ \text{Annualized Discount} = \frac{\text{Spot Price} - \text{Futures Price}}{\text{Futures Price}} \times \frac{365}{\text{Days to Maturity}} $ - Spot Price: Current index level - Futures Price: Price of the futures contract - Days to Maturity: Remaining days until the futures contract expires [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market pessimism and identifies potential rebound opportunities, making it a useful tool for timing market entry. [11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Key Metrics**: - Holding for 12 trading days: Average cumulative returns trend upward. - Holding for 33 trading days: Positive return probability > 50%. - Holding for 50 trading days: Positive return probability ~60%. [1][11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the activity level of speculative funds (e.g., proprietary traders) to gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: Derived from "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) data. - The indicator tracks the marginal changes in active trader participation over time. - Observations: - From late April, the indicator showed a consistent decline, reflecting reduced risk appetite and cautious market sentiment. - Recently, the indicator has shown marginal improvement, suggesting a potential rebound in risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides timely insights into the behavior of speculative funds, which can serve as a leading indicator for shifts in market sentiment. [3][13] 2. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors assess the performance of various style attributes (e.g., momentum, volatility, size) to understand market preferences. [23][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: BARRA factor model. - Key Observations for the Week: - Fundamental factors (e.g., profitability) showed significant positive excess returns. - Stocks with high short-term momentum and high volatility outperformed. - Size-related factors (e.g., market capitalization) continued to underperform, indicating a preference for mid- to small-cap stocks. - Formula: Factor returns are calculated as the weighted average of stock returns within each style category. [23][24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture shifts in market preferences, providing actionable insights for portfolio adjustments. [23][24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Indicator showed consistent decline from late April, reflecting reduced risk appetite. - Recent marginal improvement suggests a potential rebound in speculative activity. [3][13] 2. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: +0.2% weekly return. - Volatility: +0.2% weekly return. - Profitability: +0.3% weekly return. - Size: -0.5% weekly return. - Nonlinear Size: -0.3% weekly return. [23][24]

投资建议 1）服装品牌：海澜之家顺应消费降级趋势商业转型拓展创新市区奥莱业态，未来开店空间较大且具备较强盈利能力， 同时主业成人装筑底恢复，分红水平近年维持在高位，安踏体育多品牌矩阵持续发力，且有望受益于亚玛芬业绩高 增。同时推荐全棉时代品牌心智破圈，棉柔巾、卫生巾市占率持续提升的——稳健医疗。 2）上游制造：造板块短期板块情绪或受到美国特朗普加征关税的影响有所调整，我们认为此次超预期加征关税将推 动制造行业进一步洗牌，纺织制造龙头具备较强抗风险能力，可更好地应对外部宏观不确定性的影响，因此订单或 进一步向龙头企业转移，利好龙头份额提升。推荐制造龙头——浙江自然、申洲国际等。 行情回顾及公告新闻 行情回顾：上周（2025 年 6 月 2 日-2025 年 6 月 6 日）沪深 300、深证成指、上证综指涨跌幅分别为 0.88%、1.42%、 1.13%，纺织服装板块上升 1.89%。板块对比来看，纺织服装最近一周涨跌幅在 28 个一级行业板块中位列第 11。个 股方面，浪莎股份、华升股份、迎丰股份涨幅居前，华纺股份、跨境通、三房巷跌幅居前。 核心观点 露露乐蒙 25Q1 增长稳健。露露乐蒙本周公布 FY25Q ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 英美烟草 H2 预期提速，618 大促看好国牌突围 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】各大电商平台 618 大促延续，看好个护&户外运动国牌突围； 晨光携手国漫顶流平台腾讯视频，持续看好公司 IP 战略推进；英美烟草公 告 1H25 业绩前瞻，预计下半年新型烟草板块将显著提速，主要驱动为口 含烟持续强劲、下半年 Vuse Ultra 分阶段推出、以及 GLO HILO 在主流市 场分阶段推出，特别是 HNB 板块增速将受益新品在下半年显著提速。 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：618 大促看好个护国牌崛 起，关注智能眼镜新品催化——2025 ...