Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, the latest prices of different regions and grades vary, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5550, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 50. The price difference between different contracts and months, as well as the basis difference, also shows corresponding changes [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices of different regions and contracts also have their own fluctuations, such as the closing price of the main contract of CZCE silicon manganese, and the basis difference in different regions [4]. Supply - The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi) show different trends over time. The estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China is also presented. The production volume of silicon manganese in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [2][4]. Demand - The export price and quantity of silicon iron, the demand of silicon manganese in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon iron and silicon manganese are included. The price and production volume of metal magnesium also reflect the demand situation in related industries [2][4][5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in different regions (China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and the average available days of inventory in different regions are presented [1][3][5]. Cost and Profit - The electricity price in different regions for ferroalloys, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, the market price of raw materials such as silicon dioxide and iron oxide scale, and the production cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) are provided [3][4][5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Positive trends: Zinc, iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon,动力煤, log, LPG, propylene, soda ash [17][53][57][60][67][71][127][122] - Negative trends: PX, PTA, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, eggs, live pigs [77][133][183][187] - Neutral trends: Gold, silver, copper, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, coking coal, para-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, peanuts [7][11][18][21][25][29][34][42][47][61][73][79][82][86][90][95][100][103][109][113][130][135][152][155][159][162][167][170][174][178][189] 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts energy prices and commodity supply chains [10][11][19] - Different commodities show various trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy influences [77][87][147] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations, with a nine - day consecutive decline in spot gold [7][9] - **Silver**: Fell from the shock platform [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: Disturbances increased, price volatility amplified, affected by geopolitical news and supply - side factors [11] - **Zinc**: Rebounded from the bottom [14] - **Lead**: Lacked clear drivers, prices fluctuated [18] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [21] - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation slowed down; alumina showed high - level fluctuations; cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There were contradictions between macro and ore - end factors, and short - term long - short games intensified in nickel; stainless steel was suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [34] Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [42] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon focused on inventory changes; polysilicon showed bottom - level fluctuations [47][48] - **Iron Ore**: At a high level technically, with increased volatility [51] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by the high sentiment of the raw material sector, they showed a strong - side shock [55] - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The sector showed resonance, with a strong - side shock, and the long - position sentiment of manganese silicon was high, but attention should be paid to position risks [58] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Market sentiment fermented, showing a strong - side shock [61] - **动力煤**: The sentiment was strong, and port transactions moved up [65] - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA were in a short - term shock market and were still strong in the medium term; MEG had tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [73] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber showed wide - range fluctuations; synthetic rubber had wide - range intraday fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [79][82] - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE saw a reduction in derivatives and poor cost transmission; PP was strongly supported by C3 raw materials, but spot prices followed the increase slowly [86] - **Caustic Soda**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Pulp**: Showed a strong - side shock [95] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet was stable [100] - **Methanol**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [103] - **Urea**: Operated within a range [109] - **Styrene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [113] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little [120] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG had geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene had supply reduction expectations due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [124] - **PVC**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [130] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined, and short - term fluctuations continued to expand; low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [133] Agricultural Products - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Showed high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [152] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see [155] - **Pure Benzene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [159] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was affected by oil price disturbances and showed high - level fluctuations; soybean oil had limited upward space [162] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might fluctuate; spot soybeans adjusted prices following futures [167] - **Corn**: Operated in a fluctuating manner [170] - **Sugar**: Operated within a range [174] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [178] - **Eggs**: Showed weak - side fluctuations [182] - **Live Pigs**: The weight - reduction drive was approaching, and the near - end pressure increased [185] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [189] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances were repeated, and the intraday fluctuations of the EC market were greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment [135]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/03/24 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/03/17 | 2221 | 2283 | 2083 | 2251 | 2250 | 2136 | | 2026/03/18 | 2222 | 2286 | 2083 | 2251 | 2240 | 2136 | | 2026/03/19 | 2220 | 2286 | 2083 | 2251 | 2241 | 2137 | | 2026/03/20 | 2218 | 2286 | 2081 | 2251 | 2241 | 2137 | | 2026/03/23 | 2215 | 2285 | 2078 | 2251 | 2237 | 2138 | | 环比 | -3 | -1 | -3 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 17 - 20, 2026, and March 23, 2026. For example, Beijing's rebar price was 3190 on March 17 and 3130 on March 20; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price was 3300 on March 17 and 3320 on March 23, with a change of 60 [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The metals sector is experiencing a pullback due to liquidity expectations rather than a fundamental reversal, with interest rate cuts expected to be delayed until 2027. The current phase is seen as a bottoming period for investment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Copper, Aluminum, and Tin**: The long-term demand for these metals is driven by AI, grid modernization, and data centers. Supply constraints are due to insufficient capital expenditure, geopolitical quotas, and declining ore grades, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [1][2]. - **Gold**: Short-term pressures on gold prices are attributed to the Fed's hawkish stance and a shift of risk-averse funds towards cash. However, the long-term upward trend is supported by global central bank gold purchases and ongoing pressures on the US debt system [1][3]. - **Lithium Materials**: Supply disruptions are increasing due to Zimbabwe's quotas and domestic environmental approvals, while strong demand from the power and storage sectors is expected to drive lithium prices up in April [1][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Supply reductions due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases are expected. High dividend-paying companies in this sector, such as China Hongqiao and Yun Aluminum, are seen as defensive and resilient [1][11]. - **Rare Earths**: The growth rate of rare earth quotas has slowed from 20% to around 5%, with stricter controls on gray production. Emerging demands from humanoid robots and other sectors are expected to tighten the supply-demand fundamentals and raise price levels [1][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Industry**: There is a structural differentiation in steel demand, with manufacturing steel outpacing construction steel. Although iron ore freight costs have risen by about $5 due to geopolitical tensions, global oversupply is expected to mitigate its impact on steel mill profits [1][17]. - **ETF Behavior**: The behavior of gold ETF investors has significantly amplified market volatility, with a notable increase in gold purchases in 2025. This participation can lead to exaggerated price movements, creating opportunities for investors during irrational downturns [4]. - **Copper Market**: Recent price declines in copper are primarily due to macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical tensions, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8]. - **Tin Market**: Recent price fluctuations in tin are influenced by limited supply growth and increased demand from downstream sectors, leading to significant inventory reductions [9]. - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market has shifted from rapid price increases to stabilization, influenced by supply constraints and reduced demand from steel mills [10]. Investment Recommendations - **Metals**: Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields in the aluminum sector, such as Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao. In the lithium market, consider stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Salt Lake Resources [1][5][11]. - **Rare Earths**: Invest in leading companies with full industry chain layouts, such as China Northern Rare Earth Group and China Rare Earth Holdings, as the supply-demand fundamentals are expected to tighten [14][16]. - **Steel**: Emphasize investments in manufacturing steel sectors and companies with strong profitability and dividend policies, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the prices of black - series commodities are short - term bullish due to the rise in crude oil prices. The market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with increasing production and demand, but the demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The sharp rise in crude oil prices pushes up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season. Iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. Technically, the futures prices may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, the prices of thread and hot - rolled coil are volatile. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the demand expectation is weak [2]. - **Technical analysis**: After breaking through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the futures prices stepped back to the lower moving average support, and are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [2]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3154 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The output of 247 sample steel mills' five major varieties has increased. The national building materials steel mill's thread steel output is 203.33 million tons, up 4.11% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of the five major varieties in social and steel mill warehouses have decreased, while the steel billet inventory in Tangshan has increased [2]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties has increased by 8.82% to 868.48 million tons [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up production costs [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices have rebounded rapidly, breaking through the upper important resistance level, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [4]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 819 yuan/dry ton, up 1.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipping volume**: The Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1701.2 million tons, up 4.44% from the previous week, while the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 495.2 million tons, down 5.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 0.52% to 17098.4 million tons, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has increased by 3.22% to 1312.15 million tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Coke prices in Shandong, Xingtai, and Yuncheng are planned to increase. Wet - quenched coke will be raised by 50 yuan/ton, and dry - quenched coke will be raised by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25 [6]. - If diesel prices continue to rise, iron ore mining companies may face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2383.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.1 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports is 2271.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.6 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1050.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179.8 million tons [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total global iron ore shipping volume is 3144.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.5 million tons. The total shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2559.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.0 million tons [7]. - In mid - March, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities is 1164 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, an increase of 61.4% from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 7.3% from the same period last year [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy substitution logic of coal has become the focus of recent market trading. Under the high crude oil prices due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, coking coal and coke prices are strong. The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited, but the rising energy valuation continues to support alloy prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the peak - season expectations are still cautious, so the upward driving force for steel prices is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron - ore supply - side disturbances [1] - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world situation remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, prices will be strongly supported; if they ease, prices may face downward pressure [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to oscillate. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals recovered. Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuates. Steel mill profitability increased month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to recover further. Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel - mill imported - ore inventories increased [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, scrap - steel arrivals are generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap - steel supply is generally stable, short - process steel - mill demand has recovered rapidly, but long - process steel - mill demand has recovered slowly. Steel - mill inventories are still at a low level [11] Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both coke supply and demand are increasing, and the iron - water复产 speed may be faster. The spot cost is rising, and the expectation of a spot price increase is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. After the lifting of production restrictions, both supply and demand of coke have recovered. With the rising energy valuation due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost is rising, and the willingness to raise spot prices has emerged again [12] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will remain the focus of coking - coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to fundamentals, there will be downward pressure on the futures prices. Domestic coal - mine supply has room for a slight increase, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. After the lifting of production restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased slightly [13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese - ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, in the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction in the valuation level of the futures market above the cost due to the loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transfer. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited. The cost of manganese ore is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to pick up with the start of the peak season. However, the supply may increase, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products in the current geopolitical environment is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices. The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are suffering large - scale losses. Downstream demand has not recovered, and middle and downstream restocking has led to a reduction in upstream inventories. Energy - price increases have pushed up the expected cost of far - month contracts [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is currently stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The daily production decreased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has not changed much. The industry is still at the bottom of the cycle [16] Steel - Spot trading is performing well. After the weakening of environmental - protection production restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly led by building materials. Infrastructure investment growth at the beginning of the year is good, downstream resumption of work is progressing well, and rigid and restocking demands are slowly being released. Steel inventories have started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The steel - industry chain index on March 23, 2026, had a daily increase of 2.25%, a 5 - day increase of 2.11%, a 1 - month increase of 7.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.86% [104][106]

- The report constructs indicators using transaction details data to track large purchases and net active purchases[1][7] - The large order transaction amount ratio depicts the buying behavior of large funds[7] - The net active purchase amount ratio depicts investors' active buying behavior[7] - The large order transaction amount ratio is calculated by restoring transaction data to buy and sell order data and filtering large orders based on transaction volume, then calculating the ratio of large order transaction amount to the total transaction amount of the day[7] - The net active purchase amount ratio is calculated by identifying each transaction as active buy or active sell based on transaction data, subtracting the transaction amounts of the two, and calculating the ratio of net active purchase amount to the total transaction amount of the day[7] Model Backtest Results - Large order transaction amount ratio for individual stocks (20260316-20260320): Shaoneng Co., Ltd. 86.7%, Angang Steel Co., Ltd. 85.7%, Zhongli Group 85.5%, Huadian Liaohe Energy 85.5%, Wentou Holdings 85.3%, Xining Special Steel 84.9%, Jiangyan Group 84.8%, China High-Speed Railway 84.7%, Guangshen Railway 84.6%, Shaanxi International Trust 84.6%[9] - Net active purchase amount ratio for individual stocks (20260316-20260320): Yunnan Baiyao 15.5%, Supor 14.9%, ZJ Bio-Tech-U 14.5%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 13.9%, Fulin Precision 13.6%, China World Trade Center 13.3%, Anbotong 13.0%, Zhongwang Fabric 13.0%, Shandong Expressway 12.2%, Youngor 12.2%[10] - Large order transaction amount ratio for broad-based indices (20260316-20260320): SSE Composite Index 72.3%, SSE 50 Index 71.3%, CSI 300 Index 73.4%, CSI 500 Index 71.3%, ChiNext Index 72.4%[12] - Net active purchase amount ratio for broad-based indices (20260316-20260320): SSE Composite Index -4.6%, SSE 50 Index -4.3%, CSI 300 Index -2.3%, CSI 500 Index -3.9%, ChiNext Index 0.7%[12] - Large order transaction amount ratio for CITIC first-level industries (20260316-20260320): Petroleum and Petrochemical 76.4%, Coal 77.5%, Nonferrous Metals 73.7%, Electric Power and Public Utilities 77.5%, Steel 78.3%, Basic Chemicals 74.1%, Construction 76.9%, Building Materials 75.1%, Light Manufacturing 74.4%, Machinery 72.6%, Electric Power Equipment and New Energy 74.8%, National Defense and Military Industry 69.5%, Automotive 72.5%, Commercial Retail 74.6%, Consumer Services 74.7%, Home Appliances 75.0%, Textiles and Apparel 75.8%, Medicine 71.1%, Food and Beverage 68.7%, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery 75.1%, Banking 80.0%, Non-Banking Finance 74.2%, Real Estate 77.3%, Transportation 78.3%, Electronics 69.5%, Communications 73.4%, Computers 70.5%, Media 73.3%, Comprehensive 76.1%, Comprehensive Finance 73.3%[13] - Net active purchase amount ratio for CITIC first-level industries (20260316-20260320): Petroleum and Petrochemical -3.4%, Coal 0.5%, Nonferrous Metals -4.8%, Electric Power and Public Utilities -1.0%, Steel -10.2%, Basic Chemicals -5.4%, Construction -10.0%, Building Materials -5.5%, Light Manufacturing -5.4%, Machinery -4.1%, Electric Power Equipment and New Energy -0.1%, National Defense and Military Industry -9.0%, Automotive -3.6%, Commercial Retail -12.4%, Consumer Services -4.4%, Home Appliances -5.9%, Textiles and Apparel -8.2%, Medicine -6.1%, Food and Beverage -5.1%, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery -6.9%, Banking -2.2%, Non-Banking Finance -11.9%, Real Estate -8.4%, Transportation -2.3%, Electronics -2.3%, Communications 1.2%, Computers -10.9%, Media -11.4%, Comprehensive -14.2%, Comprehensive Finance -20.8%[13] - Large order transaction amount ratio for ETFs (20260316-20260320): Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF 93.6%, Huatai-PineBridge MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF 93.5%, Guotai CSI A500 ETF 93.4%, Haifutong SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF 92.0%, Huaxia CSI A500 ETF 91.5%, Tianhong CSI Computer Theme ETF 91.2%, Guotai CSI All Index Building Materials ETF 90.4%, Southern CSI All Index Dividend Quality ETF 89.6%, Penghua CSI Oil and Natural Gas ETF 89.1%, Harvest CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF 89.1%[15] - Net active purchase amount ratio for ETFs (20260316-20260320): Tianhong CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF 18.3%, Harvest CSI Green Power ETF 14.0%, Huaxia CSI Subdivided Nonferrous Metals Industry ETF 13.9%, Invesco Great Wall CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF 13.2%, Huaxia CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF 12.2%, Haifutong SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF 12.0%, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Energy ETF 11.1%, E Fund Shenzhen 100 ETF 11.0%, Southern ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF 10.1%, Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF 9.4%[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][8]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is showing signs of recovery, with a decrease in inventory levels. The total social inventory of major steel products was 14.11 million tons, down by 120,000 tons week-on-week. Steel mill inventory decreased to 5.35 million tons, down by 160,000 tons [10]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces has increased, with the national average for 247 steel mills rising to 79.78%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points week-on-week [21]. Price Trends - Last week, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 3,210 CNY/ton, a drop of 1.6%. Hot-rolled coil prices fell by 10 CNY/ton to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [8][41]. Profitability - The profitability of steel mills has improved, with the average profit margin for rebar rising to 192 CNY/ton, an increase of 6 CNY/ton week-on-week. The average profit margin for hot-rolled coils also increased to 54 CNY/ton, up by 18 CNY/ton [36]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as those with low costs and flexible operations like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [3].