1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show various trends, including wide - range oscillations, declines, and rebounds [6][11][12]. - For specific commodities, glass may experience a resistive decline, and the adjustment may not end; carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual reduction and suspension of production in mines; gold is oscillating and falling, while silver is breaking through and rising, etc. [6][8][9][12] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 International and Domestic News - Sino - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm, Sweden. China hopes to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and cooperation [6]. - China introduced a child - rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old [18]. - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia, causing crude oil prices to rise nearly 3% during intraday trading [19]. - The US Treasury's borrowing forecast for the third quarter exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak [21]. - Chile expects to obtain a tariff exemption from Trump, causing copper prices in New York to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [21]. - Tesla placed a $16.5 billion chip order with Samsung [21]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is oscillating and falling, and silver is breaking through and rising. The trend intensity of gold is - 1, and that of silver is 0 [12][15][20]. - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on copper prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is oscillating and weakening, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][25][27]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is oscillating due to the lack of a clear driving force, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][28][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is oscillating within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is oscillating at a high level, alumina's sentiment is declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The direction of nickel is determined by macro - expectations, and its fundamentals limit its elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and its real - world situation needs to be repaired. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][38][42]. - **Carbonated Lithium**: Carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the reduction and suspension of production in Jiangxi mines. The trend intensity is 0 [9][12][43]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to today's sentiment changes, and polysilicon should focus on today's market information. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [12][47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [12][51]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by the sector's market resonance and are oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][54][57]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in a weak oscillation due to the game between funds and reality. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [12][58][60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [12][61][64]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption of steam coal is recovering, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [12][66][69]. 3.2.3 Others - **Glass**: Short - term short - chasing for glass needs to be cautious, and the decline adjustment has not ended. It may experience a resistive decline in the later stage [6][8]. - **Log**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price declined slightly due to the cooling of market sentiment. The spot - end downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the market was in a state of expected inventory accumulation during the off - season. Considering potential factory复产, short - term prices are under pressure. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [2]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy season, and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts supports a short - term price rebound. However, the subsequent high - capacity operation pattern is difficult to change, and the market remains slightly oversupplied. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price followed the decline of the aluminum price. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macroscopically, the market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut in the US, but the timing is uncertain. Domestically, the "anti - involution" policy may affect the copper smelting capacity. Fundamentally, copper is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The short - term price is boosted by positive macro - sentiment, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77000 - 80000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate of the global and domestic zinc mines in May and June fell short of expectations. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The zinc price has rebounded due to positive macro - policies, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. The tin price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the supply of nickel ore has become relatively loose. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120000 - 128000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuated weakly. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The supply of stainless steel is under pressure, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price fluctuated sharply. The supply side has increased uncertainties, mainly around mine - related issues in Qinghai and Jiangxi. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable but not significantly boosted. The overall inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20660 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1665 yuan/ton, up 12.4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina output was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79075 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference was 960 yuan/ton, up 14.17% from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22650 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1711 yuan/ton, down 123.74 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc output was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 268800 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 65.00 US dollars/ton, down 55.17% from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous value; the SMM refined tin output was 13810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous value [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 123200 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value; the 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price was 912 yuan/nickel point, up 0.22% from the previous value [13]. Supply and Inventory - The output of Chinese refined nickel products was 31800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12850 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value [15]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73900 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous value; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 805 US dollars/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the demand was 93815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market and the overall economic environment in China, particularly focusing on the corporate sector's profitability and the relationship between stock and bond markets [1][2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: Aimed at curbing low-price competition and enhancing product quality, this policy seeks to improve corporate profit margins from the current 19.5% to a historical average of 22% [1][8][9]. - **Profitability Pressure**: Chinese corporate profitability is under significant pressure, with the profit-to-revenue ratio at a historical low. The policy's effectiveness in improving profitability is contingent on demand-side support [1][8]. - **PPI and Profit Margins**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is crucial for improving industrial profit margins. A PPI increase to 2% is necessary for a 10% profit margin recovery, but achieving this is challenging given the current PPI of -3% [1][12][13]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The anti-involution measures are expected to gradually raise the long-term interest rate central tendency by 15-20 basis points, but this will take time to materialize [14][15]. Market Dynamics - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces headwinds from rising commodity prices and a strong stock market, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect where a 1% increase in stocks corresponds to a 0.045% decrease in bond futures [2][3][5][17]. - **Investment Strategies**: Current strategies should focus on monitoring policy implementation and adjusting to short-term market fluctuations, with expected yield impacts in the range of 10-20 basis points [15][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Issues**: The anti-involution policy aims to address issues in sectors with excessive competition, such as coal and steel, where profit margins are severely impacted by price wars and demand shrinkage [4][7]. - **International Comparison**: Compared to countries like the US and Japan, which maintain a profit-to-GDP ratio around 25%, China's current ratio indicates a need for structural reforms to enhance profitability [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Risk**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility observed during periods of rapid market changes [20][21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the anti-involution policy on corporate profitability, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant trend in the futures market driven by "anti-involution" strategies, with leading sectors such as polysilicon and coking coal showing substantial price increases due to production cuts and environmental regulations [4][11]. - The report indicates that there is still potential for over 15% price appreciation in leading stocks related to polysilicon, coking coal, glass, and coke, as the price trends in commodities remain upward [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to bottom out and recover, suggesting that stock market performance is closely tied to PPI movements [5][12]. Group 2 - The report outlines a "dumbbell trading" strategy observed in fund holdings, where there is an increase in allocations to TMT sectors like telecommunications and media, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and manufacturing sectors [6][15]. - The report notes that the second quarter saw a consensus among both northbound and domestic funds to increase allocations in dividend-paying sectors and cyclical industries, while reducing exposure to consumer and manufacturing sectors [16]. - The report discusses the historical performance of PPI cycles, indicating that during PPI upturns, cyclical sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals tend to perform strongly [5][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The progress of the US - EU tariff agreement eases trade tensions, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. The drop in US initial jobless claims to 217,000 strengthens the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates. The breakdown of cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East provides some support, while domestic gold prices are pressured by both the decline in international gold prices and the strengthening of the RMB [3]. - Copper: The "anti - involution" affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as there is no significant capacity to be eliminated on the supply side, and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has a long cycle with low initial copper demand. Also, the increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions [13]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are positive, boosting sentiment. Low inventory continues to support aluminum prices, and SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For alumina, the short - term trend is mainly driven by sentiment, and it may fluctuate, with a risk of significant correction if the fundamentals change. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by high scrap aluminum prices and weak demand [33][34][35]. - Zinc: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, SHFE zinc fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yarlung River Dam project may bring some demand growth [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supply is expected to be loose with narrowing demand and is likely to decline. Nickel pig iron trading has improved, and stainless steel lacks upward momentum. Sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel pig iron and large - scale production cuts [78]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices is due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but its fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, with the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weakening demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the support [93]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market for lithium ore and lithium salts is actively traded, and industry profits are improving. Cost support is strengthened by rising ore prices, but price fluctuations have increased [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Market sentiment is hot, and both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Influencing Factors**: Trade agreements, US economic data, Middle East situation, and RMB exchange rate affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term slightly stronger, mid - term potential risks [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show a decline, and the trading volume and positions have certain trends [14]. - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have changed [17]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and copper concentrate TC remains unchanged [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper warehouse receipts and inventories have different changes [30][31]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic support, low inventory support, and short - term high - level fluctuations [33]. - **Alumina**: High operating capacity, slow inventory accumulation, tight spot supply, and short - term sentiment - driven [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High cost, weak demand, and price following SHFE aluminum [35]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Include prices of various contracts, spreads between different contracts, and basis data [36][41]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts and inventories have changed [58]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: High - level fluctuations under "anti - involution" sentiment, with supply gradually becoming surplus and demand weak [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts have declined, and spreads between different contracts have changed [63]. - **Spot Data**: Spot zinc prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have certain trends [69]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventories have increased [74]. Nickel - **Industry Outlook**: Nickel ore supply is loose, nickel pig iron trading improves, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales [78]. - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts have changed, and trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts have corresponding trends [79]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and downstream products, as well as profit margins of related production [84][86][88]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The rise is due to sector - wide influence, with short - term upward pressure greater than support [93]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts have declined, and spot tin prices and related products have also decreased [94][97]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts have increased, while LME tin inventory remains unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Active spot trading, improving industry profits, and strengthening cost support [103]. - **Futures Price Data**: Prices of various lithium carbonate futures contracts have increased, and spreads between different contracts have changed [103]. - **Spot Data**: Prices of lithium ore and lithium salts have risen, and the spreads between different products have also changed [106]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange and social inventories of lithium carbonate have different changes [110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: Hot market sentiment, significant price fluctuations in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, and investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices are stable, futures prices have increased slightly, and basis and spreads have changed [113][114]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components, as well as production and inventory data of industrial silicon [120][121][127][133][140].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the chemical and coal industries, discussing the impact of government policies and market dynamics on various sectors within these industries [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is conducting assessments of outdated production capacity, particularly in Hunan, where the lifespan has been reduced to 20 years. This could lead to significant elimination of outdated capacity in the chemical sector, enhancing market confidence in future profit reversals [1][2]. - In the soda ash industry, natural soda ash is expected to increase its market share to 60% due to environmental advantages, aiding in price recovery. Companies to watch include Yuanxing Energy and Zhongyan Chemical [1][2]. - The urea industry has an operating rate exceeding 80%, with about 30% of old facilities over 20 years old. The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to benefit supply-demand balance, with a focus on companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hubei Yihua [1][2]. - Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are showing signs of bottoming out, driven by low overseas inventory and seasonal demand peaks. Domestic and international companies are voluntarily halting production, which may lead to price increases. Key companies include Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Lier Chemical [1][3]. - The organic silicon sector is experiencing strong demand, with DMC apparent demand growth exceeding 20% year-on-year from January to May. The industry operating rate is around 70%, and if this growth continues, rates may exceed 80% in the second half of the year. Companies to monitor include Xin'an Chemical and Xingfa Group [1][3]. Coal Industry - The coal industry is responding to overproduction issues through regulatory measures. A recent document from the Energy Bureau indicates that production exceeding approved capacities will be scrutinized, marking the beginning of a "de-involution" phase aimed at reducing excessive competition and improving resource utilization [4][5]. - The coal market has seen a relatively loose supply-demand balance this year, with prices declining until a slight rebound in late June due to seasonal demand. The current price range of 600-650 RMB/ton is seen as a price floor, with expectations that further declines are unlikely [5][7][8]. - The policies implemented are primarily focused on managing production rather than capacity, similar to past measures taken to address severe oversupply issues. The current market is not in a state of excess, with overproduction mainly observed in Xinjiang [6]. Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is experiencing a "de-involution" phenomenon, characterized by overcapacity leading to intensified price competition. Companies are collaborating to limit production and stabilize prices, particularly in the cement and glass industries [9][10]. - The future focus for the cement industry includes strict enforcement of production limits and carbon emission management, with expectations for stricter policies starting in 2026 [12]. Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is facing significant internal competition, with production costs varying widely. Prices have dropped from a peak of 600,000 RMB/ton to a low of 60,000 RMB/ton, leading to many hard rock lithium mines operating at a loss. The government aims to increase self-sufficiency in strategic resources, which may lead to supply-side adjustments [15][16]. - Companies to watch in the current market environment include Zhongkuang Resources, which is expected to stabilize its business valuation as prices recover. Other companies with lighter historical burdens, like Shenxinfu, are also worth monitoring [17]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the chemical and coal industries is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for price recovery and improved profitability as outdated capacities are phased out and regulatory measures take effect [1][2][4][8]. - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand rebound, presenting potential investment opportunities [14].