1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tongling Nonferrous Metals has experienced a decline in stock price recently, despite a significant increase in its stock price year-to-date [1] - As of September 22, the stock price of Tongling Nonferrous Metals was 4.36 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 57.042 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a net outflow of 23.35 million yuan in principal funds, with large orders showing mixed buying and selling activity [1] Group 2 - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.39%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.94% to 1.441 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 7.134 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.816 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 1.02% to 288,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 1.03% to 36,523 shares [2]

Company Overview - Northern Copper Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Yuan City, Shanxi Province, established on April 2, 1996, and listed on April 28, 1997. The company’s main business includes copper mining, ore dressing, smelting, and processing of products such as gold-containing copper concentrate, anode mud, gold ingots, silver ingots, sulfuric acid, selenium powder, copper and copper alloys, high-precision copper strips, high-performance rolled copper foil, and copper-clad boards [2] Business Performance - As of September 10, 2023, Northern Copper's revenue composition is as follows: cathode copper 73.68%, precious metals 19.74%, copper strips and rolled copper foil 4.93%, others 0.85%, and sulfuric acid 0.80% [2] - For the first half of 2025, Northern Copper achieved operating revenue of 12.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 487 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.87% [2] Stock Performance - On September 22, 2023, Northern Copper's stock price fell by 2.04% to 13.43 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 541 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.08%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.58 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, Northern Copper's stock price has increased by 74.64%, with a decline of 3.80% over the last five trading days, a rise of 7.44% over the last 20 days, and an increase of 24.93% over the last 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Northern Copper is 120,600, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous period, with an average of 15,788 circulating shares per person, an increase of 1.52% [2][3] - The company has distributed a total of 601 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 387 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - Among the top ten circulating shareholders as of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest shareholder with 11.309 million shares, a decrease of 13.578 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 1000 ETF is the eighth largest shareholder with 8.796 million shares, being a new shareholder [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 27.70% but a recent decline of 6.89% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 22, Yunnan Copper's stock price was 15.26 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 30.575 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 2.79 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.90% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 27.70%, while it has decreased by 6.89% in the last five trading days [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yunnan Copper reported a revenue of 88.913 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.317 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of August 31, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Copper was 138,900, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 1.63% to 14,426 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 4.019 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.944 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Group 1: Copper Industry - In August, domestic air conditioning production increased by 9% year-on-year, better than the previously expected decline of 2.8% [4] - Following the US interest rate cut of 25 basis points, the dollar index rebounded, and the inventory transfer caused by US copper tariffs is nearing completion [4] - The supply of copper from mines and scrap remains tight, and with the expected recovery in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are likely to rise [4] Group 2: Oil and Chemical Industry - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25% [4] - The IEA has raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day, citing resilience in oil consumption from emerging markets [4] Group 3: Basic Chemical Industry - China's resource endowment of "rich in coal, poor in oil and gas" necessitates the development of modern coal chemical industry [4] - There is strong policy support for the development of modern coal chemical industry, promoting clean and efficient utilization of coal [4] Group 4: Company Performance - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, and a net profit of 2.768 billion yuan, up 9.88% year-on-year [6] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services achieved a retail sales of 122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with operating profit growing by 20.2% [7] - China Overseas Property's revenue increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 4.3% [8] - Huafa Co., Ltd. has repurchased 27.82 million shares, accounting for 1.01% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of approximately 142 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the metals and new materials industry, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance and potential for price increases in the long term [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to boost investment inflows into the metals sector, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, which are anticipated to see price increases [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors that could impact metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [5][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index fell by 4.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.57 percentage points [6][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 51.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 36.64 percentage points [6][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices decreasing by 0.78%, 0.67%, and 1.04% respectively, while gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 1.60% [10][15]. - Lithium prices showed an upward trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.82% [10][15]. Key Company Valuations - The report lists key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, with their respective price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 [18][19]. - For example, Zijin Mining is projected to have a PE ratio of 15 and an EPS of 1.65 in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that copper supply remains tight due to production disruptions, with domestic social inventory increasing to 149,000 tons [32]. - The demand for copper is expected to rise, driven by increased activity in the electrical and construction sectors, with operating rates for copper products showing slight improvements [32]. Precious Metals Insights - The report indicates that gold ETF holdings have increased by 2.2%, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [20]. - The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.7, suggesting potential for silver price recovery as demand improves [21].

Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, with WTI crude closing at $62.68 per barrel, influenced by reduced concerns over "secondary tariffs" and contract rollovers [3][5] - The market's initial fear of tariff increases affecting oil demand has eased, leading to a decrease in upward pressure on oil prices [3] - The short-term fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to trading activities rather than a change in long-term trends [5] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 1.06%, closing at $3682.84 per ounce, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5] - Despite a temporary drop after the Fed's announcement, the market is stabilizing and seeking a new support level, with expectations of further rate cuts this year [3] - The long-term support for gold prices is driven by monetary policy easing, which has contributed to a 39% increase in gold prices this year [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices have risen by 0.49%, nearing $10,000 per ton, with expectations of a supply shortage and recovery in global manufacturing next year [4] - Citigroup's report indicates that while demand may face pressure in the coming months, copper prices are expected to reach $12,000 per ton next year [4] - The anticipated average copper price for the fourth quarter is projected to be around $10,000 per ton, reflecting a stable market response to future supply-demand dynamics [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - **Long - term Factors**: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price**: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Industry Situation**: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Support**: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are seen as a temporary setback, with underlying potential gradually accumulating [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [1] - The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates but expressed caution regarding potential rate cuts later in the year due to rising inflation concerns [1] - Foreign investors increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a new high in July, while Chinese holdings reached a 16-year low [1] Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock indices rose, with the electronic sector leading gains and the metals sector lagging behind, while market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 2.388522 trillion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2] - The market is viewed as entering a consolidation phase after a prolonged uptrend, with differing views among investors leading to increased volatility [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Gold prices fell following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of further cuts later this year [3] - The U.S. retail sales showed strong performance in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, with tight supply conditions and high smelting output contributing to market dynamics [4][18] Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand visa-free travel and promote service exports, aiming to stimulate local tourism and consumption [6] - The DeepSeek team published a research paper on a new language model, marking a significant advancement in AI technology [7] Group 5: Market Performance - The futures market showed declines across various commodities, including crude oil and agricultural products, with specific price movements noted for each commodity [8][12][25][28] - The shipping index for European routes indicated a downward trend, with significant price adjustments observed in container shipping rates [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. In the absence of a clear recession forecast in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under the loose background. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The short - term aluminum price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If the subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, the aluminum price still faces the risk of falling after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term suppression of base metal prices by the Fed's interest rate cut is expected. The cost of scrap aluminum provides strong support for prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is difficult to open. Short - term prices may be boosted by macro factors, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. It is expected that the tin price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [9]. Nickel - The macro environment is improving, but the industrial fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, and the cost support is strengthening, but the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply side has increased news disturbances, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 [14][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,600 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous value. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous value [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,160 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous value. The import loss was 3,610 yuan/ton, down 315.79 yuan/ton from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin was 272,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous value. The import loss was 14,781.16 yuan/ton, down 3.90% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,181 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value. The spot - futures spread was 385 yuan/ton, down 3.75% from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.834% month - on - month; the import volume was 73,000 tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous value. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread was - 120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [14].