Core Insights - The company, Electric Alloy, was established on June 12, 1985, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on September 7, 2017. It is a significant player in the domestic copper and copper alloy products sector, possessing certain technological advantages in research and production [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Electric Alloy reported a revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, ranking 16th in the industry, significantly lower than the top player Jiangxi Copper's 396.047 billion yuan and second-ranked Zijin Mining's 254.2 billion yuan. The industry average revenue was 89.055 billion yuan, with a median of 56.687 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 129 million yuan, placing it 14th in the industry, again far below Zijin Mining's 45.701 billion yuan and Luoyang Molybdenum's 16.488 billion yuan. The industry average net profit was 5.201 billion yuan, with a median of 800 million yuan [2] Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Electric Alloy's debt-to-asset ratio was 44.43%, an increase from 36.08% in the previous year, but still below the industry average of 54.12% [3] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 11.23%, up from 10.68% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average of 10.36% [3] Corporate Governance - The chairman, Chen Yehui, has not experienced any changes in compensation. The company's controlling shareholder is Xiamen Quanxin Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., with the actual controller being the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Xiamen Municipal Government [4] - The general manager, Feng Yuejun, saw a decrease in salary from 1.1751 million yuan in 2023 to 1.1568 million yuan in 2024, a reduction of 18,300 yuan [4] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 2.75% to 40,500, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per household decreased by 2.68% to 8,182 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the copper processing industry, with significant revenue and profit rankings, but faces challenges in debt levels and profitability compared to industry averages [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. was established on October 29, 2001, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 16, 2008. The company is headquartered in Zhejiang Province and is the largest copper tube and rod processing enterprise globally [1]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper tubes, rods, fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles, categorized under the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Hailiang reported revenue of 649.33 billion yuan, ranking 8th among 16 companies in the industry. The top competitor, Jiangxi Copper, achieved revenue of 3960.47 billion yuan [2]. - The main business segments include copper tubes (272.42 billion yuan, 61.25%), raw materials (102.42 billion yuan, 23.03%), copper rods (32.24 billion yuan, 7.25%), copper foils (20.05 billion yuan, 4.51%), and others [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 9.16 billion yuan, also ranking 8th in the industry, with the leading company, Zijin Mining, reporting a net profit of 457.01 billion yuan [2]. Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Hailiang's debt-to-asset ratio was 59.61%, down from 62.12% year-on-year, but still above the industry average of 54.12% [3]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 3.68%, an increase from 3.06% year-on-year, yet below the industry average of 10.36% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 16.55% to 16,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 20.01% to 115,900 [5]. - The top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 33.6 million shares [5]. Business Highlights - Hailiang is actively expanding its overseas operations, with growth in copper processing revenue and sales outpacing domestic figures. The Texas plant is expected to reach a production capacity of 90,000 tons by the end of 2025 [5]. - New product developments are promising, with expectations for the copper foil business to break even by 2026 and a significant increase in demand for heat dissipation copper-based materials [5][6].

Trade Relations - The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi resulted in a trade truce, with the U.S. cutting fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, leading to a cumulative tariff on China of 47% [3][4] - China has committed to purchasing soybeans, although no specific dollar amount or tonnage was provided, creating uncertainty in the grain market [5][6] - China is expected to reopen rare earth exports for one year and potentially reduce chemicals needed for fentanyl production [4][8] Market Reactions - The market reaction has been mixed, with some fluctuations in equity and commodity markets following the meeting [10][13] - Rare earth stocks are experiencing varied performance, with MP Materials down approximately 0.7% [14] - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny, particularly regarding China's past failures to meet soybean purchase commitments under previous agreements [11][12] Energy Sector - There are discussions about China potentially buying U.S. oil, especially from Alaska, but current inventory levels in China are high, leading to skepticism about immediate purchases [21][22] - OPEC Plus may increase production due to supply disruptions from Russian sanctions, aiming to regain market share and manage U.S. shale production [24] - Geopolitical dynamics, including military movements in Venezuela, could impact oil resources and OPEC Plus's influence [25][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Henan Provincial Government has issued an action plan aimed at upgrading the non-ferrous metal industry, targeting an industrial added value growth rate of over 6% by 2027, with the industry maintaining a leading position in terms of scale and profitability in China [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities highlights that copper prices are supported by strong macro sentiment [2] - In aluminum, the demand from automotive companies is increasing, leading to a significant rise in orders and operating rates, which is expected to push aluminum prices to previous highs [2] - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices for lithium carbonate [2] - Concerns over cobalt supply have arisen due to lower-than-expected export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to rising prices in the market [2] - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to new resource control policies in Indonesia and increased procurement by smelting plants [2] Group 3 - Zhongyou Securities is optimistic about the non-ferrous metal sector, suggesting that supply disruptions may elevate copper prices and that aluminum still presents investment opportunities despite a clear price ceiling [3] - The price of cobalt intermediate products has surged, with expectations for continued price increases through 2026-2027 [3] - Strengthened regulations on rare earths by two departments may lead to a new upward trend in rare earth prices [3]

Core Insights - Public funds have increasingly concentrated their investments in certain stocks, particularly in the case of ST Huatuo, which has seen significant interest from multiple funds this year [1][2] - The "herding" strategy, where funds from the same company heavily invest in a single stock, reflects a strong consensus on specific industries or stocks among fund managers [1][3] - The performance of ST Huatuo has been driven by various positive factors, including its expansion into overseas gaming markets and a doubling of net profits, leading to a stock price increase of over 400% since the second half of 2024 [2] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q3, ST Huatuo was included in the top ten holdings of 282 funds, with an increase of approximately 50.97 million shares compared to the end of Q2 [1][2] - In the first half of the year, ST Huatuo was held by over 300 funds, totaling approximately 48.13 million shares with a market value of around 5.33 billion [2] - Another ST stock, ST Songfa, was heavily favored by 11 public funds, with 9 of them being from the Bosera Fund [3] Sector Trends - The trend of public funds "herding" is also evident in high-volatility sectors, such as the optical and medical industries, with significant investments in stocks like Yutong Optical and Yingke Medical [4] - In the metals sector, public funds have shown a similar "herding" behavior, particularly with stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper, which have seen substantial increases in holdings from multiple funds [5][6] - Xiyang Co. has also attracted attention, with 51 public funds holding it as a major investment, particularly favored by managers from Dacheng Fund [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is in a phase of correction due to reduced short - term safe - haven premiums for gold and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - The copper market is expected to maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term, as the conversion of market attention into actual transactions and macro - level support are needed for price increases [15]. - The aluminum market has seen strong price performance due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. Future price trends depend on the Fed's interest rate decision and potential capital movements [36]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China compared to overseas. Low inventory supports prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - level upward drivers [59]. - The nickel industry has different trends for different products. Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong, nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - The tin market is expected to remain strong in the short term as supply is weaker than demand and supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve quickly [89]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see increased demand, which may support prices. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - The industrial silicon market may see a slight increase in price as production cuts are expected during the dry season, but price increases are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The short - term safe - haven premium of gold is weakened, and the precious metals market is in a correction phase. The实物贴水 has expanded to 6.18 yuan/gram, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, price ratios, and inventory data [4][11][14]. Copper - **Market Outlook**: The spot price and premium are weak, and the market needs to convert attention into actual transactions and have macro - level support for price increases. It will maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [15]. - **Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai and London copper futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data are provided [16][22][32]. Aluminum - **Market Analysis**: Macro policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and overseas supply disruptions have driven up prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [36]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [37][46][53]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. The domestic supply is stable, and overseas production has been cut. The price difference has widened, and low inventory supports prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the export window and macro - level drivers [59]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of zinc futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [60][67][71]. Nickel - **Industry Trends**: Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong due to new regulations and high downstream demand. Nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [75]. Tin - **Market Forecast**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and short - term supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve. The Shanghai tin market is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of tin futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [90][92][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [103][107][111]. Silicon Industry - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, price differences, and inventory data [114][123][142].

Core Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has seen a significant stock price increase of 169.03% year-to-date, with a recent 10.75% rise over the last five trading days [2] - The company reported a revenue of 1454.85 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 142.80 billion yuan [3] Stock Performance - As of October 29, the stock price reached 17.21 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.95 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 3681.96 billion yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a 37.46% increase over the last 20 days and an 86.05% increase over the last 60 days [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 304,200, up by 28.08% from the previous period [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 695 million shares, an increase of 47.47 million shares [4] Business Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, and trading of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [3] - The revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), and other metals such as copper (27.14%) and cobalt (6.04%) [3] Dividend Information - The company has distributed a total of 215.62 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 105.76 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a narrow - range shock on Tuesday, with major indexes mostly falling. The transportation sector was strong, while industrial and metal - related industries declined. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly followed the index down. The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions and overseas events influenced the market. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. After the favorable news of buying and selling treasury bonds was realized, the bond market may enter a short - term shock stage. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][7]. Precious Metals - The market risk preference continued to rise, and funds flowed out quickly. Gold and silver prices first declined sharply and then rebounded. In the medium - to - long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, while in the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [8][9][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rate quotes showed an upward trend. The futures market was volatile, and the market was cautiously bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was at a high level. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand had strong resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to pay attention to the marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariffs [12][13][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading became more active, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The price was expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to cost support and inventory changes [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was at a high level and fluctuated. The macro environment was generally favorable, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It was expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated downward, and the spot price was firm. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price strengthened slightly. The supply was expected to increase with limited amplitude, and the demand was stable. The zinc price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The tin price was strongly supported by fundamentals and was expected to be strongly volatile. It was necessary to pay attention to macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [27][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated weakly. The macro environment put some pressure on it, and the inventory accumulation also had an impact. It was expected to fluctuate within a range [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price fluctuated weakly. The cost support was weak, and the fundamentals were generally weak. It was expected to adjust with a weak shock in the short term [33][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was strong. The supply - demand gap was expected to expand in October. The short - term price was expected to remain strong, and it was necessary to pay attention to demand sustainability and ore performance [36][37][39]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was supported by the Tangshan production limit. The demand was expected to be supported by policies in the fourth quarter, and the inventory was expected to decrease. It was recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [40][42]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price continued to rebound. The supply and demand situation was complex, and it was recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [43][47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price was strong. The supply decreased, and the demand for replenishment recovered. It was recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase of coke was officially implemented, and there was still an expectation of a price increase. It was recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [52][53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The Sino - US relationship improved, and the cost of near - month soybeans was supported. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory was high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal trend was expected to be strong [56][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig price was strong. The secondary fattening and the expected reduction in the supply at the end of the month supported the price. In the medium term, there was still an increase in the supply. It was advisable to wait and see before entering the reverse spread [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]