Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - **Main Logic**: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - **View**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - **View**: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - **View**: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - **View**: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - **View**: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - **Main Logic**: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - **View**: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - **View**: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - **View**: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - **View**: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - **View**: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - **View**: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - **Main Logic**: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - **Energy Index**: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] - For methanol, with low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] - For rubber, expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] - For PVC, in the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] - For polyethylene, although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] - For PX, expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] - For PTA, expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.27%, at 437.00 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed inventory accumulation. Crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.90 million barrels to 92.37 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.00 million barrels to 95.56 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.90 million barrels to 187.93 million barrels [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed changes, with Jiangsu down 13 yuan/ton, Lunan down 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract decreased by 27.00 yuan/ton to 2206 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 64 yuan [1][2] - **Strategy View**: With low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, with Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, Henan down 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1775 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 25 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire factory operating rates changed, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China increased. Spot prices of related products also changed [7][8][9] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 6 yuan to 4807 yuan, and the basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. changed. Cost - end prices were stable, and the overall operating rate was 79.6%. Factory and social inventories changed [12] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, while styrene spot prices rose and futures prices fell. Supply - side operating rates and inventories changed, as did demand - side operating rates [15] - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [20] - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7232 yuan, and the CFR price rose 9 dollars to 888 dollars. PX and PTA operating rates changed, and import and inventory data were reported [22] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 114 yuan to 5144 yuan, and the spot price rose 35 yuan to 5015 yuan. PTA and downstream operating rates changed, and inventory decreased. Processing fees increased [25] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 81 yuan to 3661 yuan, and the spot price fell 36 yuan to 3601 yuan. Supply - side operating rates changed, and downstream operating rates decreased. Import and inventory data were reported, and cost - end prices changed [29] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30]

一、贵金属期货 2月黄金期价当天一度突破每盎司4760美元，3月白银期价一度突破每盎司95美元；随后纽约期金持续走 高，先后突破4760美元/盎司（日内涨3.58%）、4770美元/盎司（日内涨3.80%），截至21日07:46，进一 步突破4780美元/盎司，日内涨0.31%。 现货黄金同步上涨，21日先后突破4740美元/盎司（日内涨1.49%）、4750美元/盎司（日内涨1.70%）、 4760美元/盎司（日内涨1.94%），07:44进一步突破4770美元/盎司，日内涨0.16%。 国内市场方面，白银连续主力合约价格呈现波动，20日22:35跌1%至22920.00元，23:25进一步跌2%至 22680.00元。 二、能源与航运期货 国际原油价格20日出现上涨，布伦特原油突破65美元/桶，日内涨1.68%；WTI原油突破60美元/桶，日 内涨1.13%。 三、宏观与市场影响 周二美股三大股指收盘普跌，道指跌1.82%，纳指跌2.42%，标普跌2.07%，特朗普再次重申有关攫取格 陵兰的强硬言论，威胁提高对欧洲八国的关税，市场避险情绪盛行。 盘中标普500指数一度跌2.00%至6800.970点，纳指 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.37%, S&P 500 down 1.42%, and Nasdaq down 1.72% [1] - Major European indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.92%, FTSE 100 down 1.08%, CAC 40 down 1.15%, DAX 30 down 1.43%, and FTSE MIB down 1.24% [5][6] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks such as Nvidia, Google, Apple, and Tesla experienced declines, with Nvidia dropping over 3% [3] - Intel saw a significant increase of 6% after HSBC raised its target price from $26 to $50 and upgraded its rating from "reduce" to "hold" [3] Semiconductor and Storage Stocks - Micron Technology's stock rose by 5%, reaching a historical high, with at least two brokerages raising its target price [3] - SanDisk's stock surged by 8%, also hitting a historical high, with Citigroup raising its target price from $280 to $490 [3] - Seagate Technology and Western Digital saw stock increases of over 2% and 3%, respectively, both reaching historical highs [3] Gold and Mining Stocks - Gold stocks rose across the board, influenced by new highs in gold prices, with companies like Kinross Gold up 6.8% and Pan American Silver up 4.38% [3] - Analysts predict continued strength in gold prices, with potential for gold to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [6] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced declines, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% to below $91,000, and Ethereum down 4.52% [8][9]

Metal Market - As of the afternoon close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with tin leading the gains at 3.08%, followed by copper at 0.58% and nickel at 0.36%. Lead led the declines with a drop of 0.2% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged to a limit-up increase of 8.99%, closing at 160,500 yuan/ton. Polysilicon rose by 0.91%, while industrial silicon fell by 0.4% [1] - In the external market, base metals generally declined, with only tin showing a slight increase of 0.48%. Nickel fell by 1.3%, and other metals saw declines within 1% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose by 2.72%, reaching a new historical high of $4,723.7 per ounce. COMEX silver increased by 5.84%, also hitting a historical high of $94.745 per ounce. Domestic gold rose by 1.99%, reaching a peak of 1,061.16 yuan/gram, marking a new historical high, while silver increased by 3.62% [1][2] Macro Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and adapt to the upgrading trend of demand structure. A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 will be developed [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance announced the expansion of support for equipment renewal loans, including a 1.5% interest subsidy for fixed asset loans related to equipment updates, effective until December 31, 2026 [7] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - In December, domestic industrial crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year-on-year decline, while processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a 5.0% year-on-year increase. Trump's suspension of military action against Iran led to a partial retreat of geopolitical risk premium. The global crude oil supply-demand structure in Q1 2026 shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus remains the main factor suppressing oil prices [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Fed officials' negative attitude towards short - term interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Greenland issue maintain the bullish trend of precious metals [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded. LME US inventory registration and narrowing of the US - London spread affected the market. Domestic copper market is mainly in a "supply exceeds demand" situation, with social inventory reaching 329,400 tons. It is recommended to hold a combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars increased by 13,000 tons each on Monday, and spot feedback was weak. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving factor [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with no long - term production cuts. The alumina market is in significant surplus, with the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan dropping to around 2,600 yuan. Spot prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have corrected. Downstream acceptance is limited, and spot trading is weak. The weighted precipitation funds of Shanghai zinc have dropped to 5.1 billion yuan. Considering the import ore TC and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand, the short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton. The annual high is considered to be 25,600 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies [7]. Lead - The import window remains open. Both domestic and foreign markets are in a low - level consolidation due to oversupply. In late January, the resumption of production of domestic primary aluminum smelters is relatively concentrated, increasing supply pressure. The lower support for Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level, and the market is active. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, with high - level transactions blocked. The negative feedback risk is accumulating. Short - term sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]. Tin - Overnight, domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded. LME tin ingot inventory increased to 6,440 tons, and the spot discount widened to $104. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand. It is advisable to hold short - call options at a high level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is weakly oscillating, and the market is active. Downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [10]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices mainly oscillated. Rebar apparent demand increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends [11]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis narrowed recently. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil but an increase in non - mainstream shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased. Demand is affected by potential disruptions to iron - making production. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Coke - The daily price mainly oscillated. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by factors such as coal inventory and policies [13]. Coking Coal - The daily price mainly oscillated. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,465 tons. Coking coal production increased significantly, terminal inventory increased, and total inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by inventory and policies [14]. Manganese Silicon - The daily price oscillated downward. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron - making production decreased seasonally, and silicon - manganese production and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [15]. Silicon Iron - The daily price oscillated downward. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decrease in power and raw material costs. Iron - making production rebounded, and overall demand is still resilient. Supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [16]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - The inflection point of spot freight rates has been confirmed, leading the futures market into a weak trend. The near - month contract is affected by the actual "rush - shipping" intensity due to export - tax policy adjustments. The 04 contract may oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption - of - shipping expectation. Contract rules will be adjusted [17]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical risks are expected to support the high - sulfur cracking spread, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy - raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [18]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil but with limited amplitude. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored. The market is in an oscillating range [19]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also improved. The short - term market may decline slightly, but with the start of agricultural demand, the market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range [20]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline at night. Import arrivals decreased significantly, and port inventory decreased. However, demand from some olefin plants decreased, and the market is expected to oscillate in a stalemate. The expected significant reduction in imports in Q1 provides support [21]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to oscillate strongly at night. Domestic refinery production cuts and reduced imports, along with increased downstream demand, led to a significant reduction in East China port inventory. The short - term market is expected to oscillate strongly [22]. Styrene - Styrene is in a tight - balance state, with limited port arrivals and expected inventory reduction. Domestic production enterprises have good sales, and exports provide some support [23]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of propylene is tight in the short term, but downstream purchasing willingness is limited due to high costs. The demand support for polyethylene is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand fundamentals of polypropylene may lack upward driving force [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are weakening, with a decline in production capacity utilization. The cost is rising, and it is expected to go through capacity reduction. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Caustic soda is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure [25]. PX and PTA - Before and after the Spring Festival, PX has limited upward - driving force, and PTA follows the raw material. In Q2, considering PX maintenance and polyester production increase, there are opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads. PTA processing spreads will moderately recover in the new year [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic new ethylene - glycol plants are put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. In Q2, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term outlook is under pressure due to capacity growth [27]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises have high production loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and prices follow the raw material. Bottle - chip production has decreased, and processing spreads have recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [28]. Glass - Glass prices declined due to new ignition plans. The industry is in a state of inventory reduction, but supply may increase slightly. Processing orders are weak, and the market may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period. It is advisable to consider long - buying opportunities when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [29]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai raw - material prices decline. Natural - rubber supply is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering. Synthetic - rubber supply is increasing, and inventory trends are different. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [30]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure. Production may decline slightly in the short term, but long - term supply pressure is large. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and wait and see when the price drops to the cost level [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day. South American weather has improved, increasing the probability of ENSO neutrality. US soybean exports have strengthened. In China, soybean crushing is expected to increase in January. It is necessary to pay attention to US soybean exports and South American weather [32]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil export data shows an increase, and production shows a decrease, which is beneficial for inventory reduction. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for US biodiesel. The overall outlook for soybean and palm oil is an oscillating range [33]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China and Canada have reached a preliminary arrangement on trade issues. If the import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal improves as expected before March 1, it is expected to drive purchases. The short - term view on rapeseed products is bearish [34]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are oscillating. Policy - driven auction results have a guiding effect on prices. The supply of grassroots grain sources is tight, and high prices suppress demand. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and the spot market [35]. Corn - Snow in Northeast China boosts the bullish sentiment, and transportation of grassroots grain is difficult. Corn prices in Northeast China and northern ports are strong. However, increased auctions by state and local reserves may form pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [36]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live - pig futures changed significantly. After a weekend increase in prices, the futures prices dropped in the afternoon. The short - term rebound may be over. The industry capacity is showing signs of contraction, and pig prices are expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [37]. Eggs - After the New Year's Day, egg spot prices have been strengthening. The futures prices have followed the spot, but on Monday, the futures prices dropped significantly. In the long - term, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline, and it is advisable to adopt a long - buying strategy on dips [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to correct. After the previous rise, the positive factors have been mostly reflected. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Guangxi's production is slow, but there is a strong expectation of an increase in the 2025/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [40]. Apples - Futures prices have corrected. Spot market transactions for the Spring Festival are increasing, but the quality of apples is poor, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to future demand [41]. Wood - Futures prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease in the short term, and demand has increased compared to the same period last year. Low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices were basically flat. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, China's A - share indices had mixed performance, and futures indices mostly rose. The geopolitical situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment. The stock - index trend is expected to change from a one - way increase to an oscillatingly strong trend, with a slower upward slope. It is necessary to pay attention to the transition from liquidity - driven to profit - driven and geopolitical impacts [44]. Treasury Bonds - On January 19, 2026, 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The first structural "interest - rate cut" of the year was implemented. The central bank adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial - housing loans and carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The money market is gradually becoming loose, but the short - term downward space for interest rates may be limited during the tax - payment period [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US is accelerating the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and has started selling the first batch of Venezuelan oil, which is marginally bearish for the supply side. Venezuela is likely to achieve a daily output increase of 100,000 barrels this year. The situation in Iran has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. Geopolitical conflicts that do not substantially affect crude oil production and exports will be good selling points. It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $59.17, closing at $59.22, with a high of $60.05, a low of $58.81, a daily increase of 0.24%, and a trading volume of 27.18 million hands. Brent's opening price was $63.74, closing at $64.20, with a high of $64.77, a low of $63.44, a daily increase of 0.69%, and a trading volume of 31.52 million hands. SC's opening price was 443.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 437.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 446.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 436.7 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.52%, and a trading volume of 7.79 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in December increased by 17% compared to November. Angola's crude oil exports in March are expected to be 1.09 million barrels per day. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran will not drag the country into war but will not let criminals at home and abroad go unpunished, and those associated with Israel and the US caused large - scale damage and thousands of deaths in the protests [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [9][13][20][22]

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4666.85, with a change of 55.80 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 93.01, with a change of 2.21 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2301.00, with a change of -85.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1755.00, with a change of -51.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 59.44, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12891.50, with a change of 43.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.04, with a change of -0.33 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.34, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 158.13, with a change of 0.06 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.91, with no change [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 13348.26, with no change [1][11] - SHFE Silver inventory is 617.76, with a change of -9.08 [1][11] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1085.67, with no change [1][11] - Silver ETF持仓 is 16073.06, with no change [1][11] - SGE Silver inventory is 773.63, with no change [1][11] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 2 [1]