智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普通过下令封锁南美洲国家近海地区的受制裁油轮，并且加大对委内瑞拉军事与经济施压之后，国际原油定价基准 ——布伦特原油期货价格从2021年以来的最低价格水平迅速反弹，但是反弹幅度相对有限，仅仅徘徊在1%涨幅附近。 有统计数据显示，委内瑞拉本国的原油产量自2020年触及历史低点区域后持续回升，但仍远低于几十年前的强劲水平。上月，委内瑞拉一些油轮装载用于 出口的原油接近每日59万桶，而全球原油消费量超过每日1亿桶。该国大部分原油流向中国与印度。 能源咨询机构Rapidan Energy Group表示，如果美国继续执行制裁与封锁举措，委内瑞拉约30%的原油运输将面临风险。预计该国存放在亚洲各地油轮中的 新一批储油将缓冲中国等亚洲大型买家们在出口方面遭遇的任何即时冲击，但任何长期的出口中断都可能迫使亚洲的大型炼油厂们寻求来自中东与北美地 区更昂贵的替代品。 来自ING Groep NV驻新加坡市场的大宗商品战略主管Warren Patterson表示："考虑到预计到2026年的石油供应过剩的预期规模，原油交易市场最近总体上承 受了供应端风险。""目前布伦特原油价格有所反弹，但是上涨幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation - expectation gaming phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Track the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains high, but there are risks of policy expectation reversals both domestically and internationally. Be vigilant about the macro and fundamental resonance risks when market sentiment turns cold [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China are showing a swing. The Politburo Meeting on December 8 emphasized the continuation of an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. Multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data shows industrial resilience, but consumption and fixed - asset investment are under pressure [2]. - The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, with a planned purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. US economic data has shown mixed results, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has different trends. There are risks of a downward trend in the market if sentiment cools [3]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: The long - term supply constraint problem has not been alleviated, and the certainty of investment remains high [4]. - Energy: OPEC members have proposed additional production cuts, and the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. However, the oil market is facing a severe supply glut, and oil prices have dropped significantly [4]. - Chemicals: There is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4]. - Agriculture: With the Sino - US talks, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4]. - Precious metals: There are opportunities for buying on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4]. Key News - The Central Financial Office detailed the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue next year, aiming to promote economic growth and reasonable price recovery, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, and supporting key areas [6]. - China's November economic data shows that industrial production has resilience, but consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market are under pressure. The prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities have declined [6]. - US economic data includes an increase in non - farm payrolls in November, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a decline in the December manufacturing PMI [3][6]. - The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI has accelerated its contraction, with different performances in Germany and France [3]. - Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, and WTI crude oil has reached a four - year low due to supply gluts [4][6].

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing down $1.55 at $55.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.73% [2][13] - Brent February contract closed down $1.64 at $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][13] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2][13] - The market expected a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in crude oil inventory [2][13] - Geopolitical factors have not caused a significant supply shortage, and oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom amid increasing macro risks [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.5% to 2368 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.42% to 2909 yuan/ton [3][14] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore [3][14] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high-sulfur fuel oil cracking profits have declined, potentially boosting demand from Asian refineries [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.36% to 2894 yuan/ton [4][15] - Tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about future raw material shortages, keeping the market relatively firm [4][15] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows significant regional differences, with the North focusing on storage and the South on actual consumption [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15170 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12385 yuan/ton [5][16] - Weather improvements in overseas production areas have led to lower raw material inventories compared to previous years [5][16] - Limited demand support is expected, leading to wide fluctuations in rubber futures prices [5][16] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4668 yuan/ton, down 0.6%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 3.75% [6][17] - PX futures closed at 6744 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with spot prices at $827/ton [6][17] - Domestic supply pressures are expected to increase as new ethylene glycol plants come online, while some existing plants are facing losses [6][17] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2103 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $244-$248/ton [7][18] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in downstream MTO plants [7][18] - Overall, methanol prices are anticipated to remain under pressure [7][18] Polyolefins - Main PP prices in East China ranged from 6120-6350 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][19] - PE prices are reported at 7839 yuan/ton for HDPE and 8491 yuan/ton for LDPE [8][19] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with limited downside for futures prices [8][19] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for different grades ranging from 4350-4600 yuan/ton [9][20] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to some plants resuming operations, while demand is anticipated to slow down due to a decrease in real estate construction [9][20] - Overall, PVC prices are expected to trend towards a bottom [9][20] Urea - Urea futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 1630 yuan/ton [10][22] - The market is experiencing weak demand, with many regions showing a cautious purchasing sentiment [10][22] - Short-term market support is lacking, and there may be further price declines to reduce inventory [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm trend, with the January contract closing at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [11][23] - Supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is expected to remain weak due to cautious sentiment in downstream industries [11][23] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong but limited upward trend [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 946 yuan/ton [12][24] - The market is stable, with no significant changes in production lines, and demand remains cautious [12][24] - Short-term price trends are expected to continue fluctuating at the bottom [12][24]

最新非农报告显示，劳动力就业状况和之前类似，就业维持弱势。美联储面临的难题没有得到解决，必须在阻止劳动力市场疲软，和防止通胀进一步恶化之 前，做出艰难的选择。美联储坚称劳动力市场不是通胀的根源，就业数据也印证了此观点。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，非农报告并没有把黄金带出震荡区域，黄金也没有向4380美元的历史高点冲锋。 技术面：昨日日线收十字星。1小时级别，价格在4275-4350美元之间震荡，并且震荡有收敛的态势，关注今日价格能否取得区间破位。 黄金方面： 12月16日，美国公布10月和11月非农数据，其中10月就业人数负10.5万人，11月就业数据6.4万人，失业率4.6％。考虑到当时美国政府仍处在停摆之中，数 据的有效性较差，金价仍在高位整理。 原油方面： 黄金小时图 供应端信息，欧美对俄罗斯原油的制裁或已被市场消化，俄油的出口回升，促使原油进一步走弱。美国仍在推动俄乌和谈，当前美乌双方在柏林达成进一步 共识，后续取决于俄罗斯态度。在此影响下，油价进一步下行。同时，美国和委内瑞拉的局势仍然不明，美方扣押了委方油轮，后续不排除军事升级。 需求端信息，美国原油库存数据显示，截至12月5日当周EI ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锌 | ★★★★ | 锌：内外盘共振，锌价震荡下行。昨日 LME 新加坡仓库注册仓单大增，疑似有巨头释放手中 货源。此次集中交仓后盘面集中度明显下降，LME0-3 结构也由 Back 转为 Contango，近 端呈现出宽松状态。我们认为此轮海外逼仓行情已经告一段落，后续出口窗口关闭下，国内 去库节奏也预计放缓，盘面或重新回归空头主导行情。长周期来看，当下正处于锌矿扩产周 期尾声，明年全球锌矿增量项目相对有限，增量集中在前期爬产的几个大型项目。一方面， 矿山产能提升需要一定时间，部分项目明年能否达到满负荷存在疑问。另一方面，矿山增量 存在结构性分化，海外锌矿增量有限，叠加生产扰动增加，锌矿紧平衡或成为常态。这也意 味着 TC 的持续承压，明年 TC 上行空间或低于今年，锌价具备上浮的弹性。整体来看，我们 认为供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格，消费走阔决定价格上方空间，"十五五"开局之年预计政 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report did not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has pushed oil prices down, and the chemical industry is actively resisting low profits and prices. The global chemical industry's capacity reduction continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with short - term profit - taking on short positions as the main strategy [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Energy and Chemicals**: The overall energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market. Pay attention to the support at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The market is in a state of expected supply surplus, and the support at the previous low may come from the short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela [6]. - **Outlook**: The expected supply surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations may fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the short - term support at the annual low. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price has fallen below the 2900 support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, leading to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt futures price has fallen below an important support level. The pricing of futures has returned to Shandong's spot price, and the high valuation of asphalt is being revised down. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, showing a downward trend. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists. The decline in oil prices has led to a fall in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three major driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, showing a downward trend. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply pressure of domestic refined oil is increasing, and the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are facing a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price trend, while its strong fundamentals support firm profits. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have continued to adjust downward. The positive signal from the Russia - Ukraine peace process has led to a decline in Brent oil prices. Under the support of PTA and polyester demand, the decline in PX prices is limited, but in the short term, it is greatly affected by cost and lacks new positive drivers [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it fluctuates and consolidates under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will consolidate in the range of [260, 300]. The positive spread logic is maintained. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains firm. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating and falling, and the cost support has collapsed. PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost decline from being overly transmitted to downstream products. The short - term supply and demand of PTA are stable, and the basis is relatively strong. The price follows the upstream cost and oscillates weakly [10]. - **Outlook**: The price oscillates and consolidates with the cost, and the processing fee maintains a certain range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract in the range of 4600 - 4700 on dips. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There are differences in expectations, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene is currently in a state of weak reality and divergent expectations. The recent trading on the disk focuses on the far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has large differences in the balance forecast for Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. The chemical market atmosphere is pessimistic [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side has been insufficient, dragging down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene is in a tight - balance state, providing support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. In December, there is an expectation of further inventory reduction, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upward space. From January, the seasonal inventory accumulation will start [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Device disruptions increase, further consolidating price support, but there is still a lack of medium - term drivers. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded. The previous price adjustment was sufficient, and the low price has led to production cuts on the supply side. The arrival volume of foreign ships is moderate, and the inventory accumulation rate at ports has slowed down. In the short term, the price is expected to remain low, but in the long - term, the inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may bottom out under industry resistance, and in the long term, the inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with limited rebound height and wide - range low - level oscillation. 3.2.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The cost trend is divergent, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost shows a divergent trend. PTA is affected by international oil prices and oscillates weakly, while ethylene glycol rebounds. The price of polyester staple fiber is relatively resistant to decline, but the demand is weak, and there is no upward driving force in the off - season [19][20]. - **Outlook**: The price of staple fiber oscillates with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced. The long - TA and short - PF positions should take profit and exit. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The trend of upstream polyester raw materials is divergent. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials show a divergent trend. PTA is weakly oscillating, and ethylene glycol is rising. The price of polyester bottle chips is narrowly consolidating, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable [21]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is enhanced. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The unloading at coastal areas is lower than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland support methanol to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol market oscillates and consolidates. The supply in the inland market is abundant, and enterprises reduce prices to sell goods. The port inventory is being digested, and the inventory in the inland is low, supporting the price. The overall pattern in coastal areas is weaker than that in the inland [23]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation and consolidation. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand support is insufficient, and the disk oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply of urea has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. The demand support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened, and the environmental protection warning and production restrictions in the mainstream areas may reduce the short - term industrial demand [24]. - **Outlook**: The market lacks effective positive support, and the price may decline slightly. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the start - up of compound fertilizer factories. 3.2.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Oil prices are weak, and the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The plastic futures price oscillates. It is mainly driven by PP recently. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The fundamental support of plastic itself is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [27]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the maintenance expectation, PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The PDH profit is temporarily under pressure. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is still large, and the inventory is relatively high [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the PDH maintenance expectation supports PL to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream buying is cautious. The short - term powder profit is under pressure, and the start - up decline has a dragging effect [29]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The exit of overseas devices boosts PVC sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect on low - valuation varieties. Microscopically, the exit of a 450,000 - ton PVC production capacity of a US company boosts market sentiment, but the domestic over - supply expectation still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: The exit of overseas devices improves market sentiment, but the rebound space of PVC is limited, and the pressure lies in profit repair and the resumption of domestic marginal production capacity. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect. Microscopically, the decline in liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production cuts, but it has not been implemented yet. The fundamentals are under pressure [33]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The disk should be observed, and the downward space is limited. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and change values of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [38]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical varieties, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [2][3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [5][6] - For urea, the supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [8][9][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [11][12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13][14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [16][17] - For polyethylene, the valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22][23] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25][26] - For PTA, the processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [27][28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [30][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.51%, at 430.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures such as high - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed inventory accumulation in various types of oil [2] - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract rose by 55 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 131 yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas declined, and the overall basis was reported at 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose by 1 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated and consolidated. The exchange's RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views from the long and short sides. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises had different changes, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [11] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose by 84 yuan to 4399 yuan, and the spot price and basis had corresponding changes. The overall operating rate and downstream operating rate declined, and the inventory increased [12] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13][14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets had different changes, and indicators such as the basis, profit, and inventory also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polyethylene declined, and the spot price also declined. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate declined [19] - **Strategy View**: The valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polypropylene rose, and the spot price declined. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [22] - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, and inventory had corresponding changes [25] - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, inventory, and processing fee had corresponding changes [27] - **Strategy View**: The processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [28][29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose, and indicators such as the basis, supply - side load, downstream load, inventory, and profit had corresponding changes [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [31]

Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.73% to $55.27 per barrel, marking the first time since February 2021 that it dropped below $55, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 22%, the worst performance since 2018 [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.24%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.23%, with Tesla shares increasing over 3% to reach a new closing high [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for October showed a decrease of 105,000 jobs, higher than the expected decline of 25,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [1] Currency and Investment Sentiment - The U.S. dollar index fell below 98 for the first time since October 6, with a daily drop of 0.37%, while the onshore and offshore RMB against the dollar reached new highs, with the onshore rate approaching 7.04 [2] - A Bank of America monthly survey indicated that investor sentiment is at its highest in four and a half years, with an investor sentiment index of 7.4 out of 10, reflecting strong confidence in economic growth, stocks, and commodities [2] Industry Developments - Ant Group's AI health application "Antifufu" saw a surge in downloads, reaching third place on the Apple app store, with over 15 million monthly active users [5] - Alibaba launched the next-generation "Wanshang 2.6" model, which supports role-playing functions and is aimed at professional film production and image creation [5] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported that over 100 companies have listed since 2025, raising over HKD 270 billion, with more than 300 listing applications currently being processed [6] Economic Policies and Trends - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the need to expand domestic demand as a priority for the coming year, with a focus on increasing residents' income and consumption capacity [10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting to promote intelligent construction and high-quality development in the construction industry [12] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imports of pork and related products from the EU starting December 17, 2025, for a period of five years [12]

Market Overview - The US stock market continues to experience volatility, with a downward trend observed on December 16, despite better-than-expected employment data for November [1][2] - The November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, contrasting with a decrease of 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [2] - Technology stocks generally declined during this period [2] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, with intraday losses exceeding 3% [4] - The oil market is facing its worst performance in nearly seven years, with WTI crude down approximately 22% year-to-date, marking the worst annual performance since 2018 [6] - Brent crude has also seen a decline of nearly 20%, the worst since 2020 [6] - Key factors contributing to the pressure on oil prices include OPEC+ members increasing production after years of cuts and the potential for reduced geopolitical risks, particularly regarding a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia [7]

金市 - 避险溢价收缩 行情：现货黄金最终收于 4304.91美元/盎司，日内仅上涨0.11%，远低于盘初超过1%的涨幅。 动因：乌美谈判取得进展的消息削弱了黄金的避险吸引力，同时部分投资者选择获利了结。 亮点：其他贵金属表现强劲，白银、铂金、钯金均大幅上涨，其中钯金受供应缺口预期推动涨近5%。 ⬛ 油市 - 宏观预期压制地缘风险 核心要点： 地缘紧张局势现缓和迹象，削弱避险需求，金价、油价周一承压；美股在关键数据公布前交投谨慎；市场目光聚焦今日公布的美国非 农就业报告。 隔夜市场总览 周一，市场风险情绪有所回暖，主要受地缘政治出现谈判进展的影响。黄金回吐大部分日内涨幅，原油延续跌势，美股三大指数小幅收低。美元 窄幅震荡，日元因日本央行加息预期继续走强。交易员在周二美国非农数据公布前调整仓位，整体市场处于观望状态。 市场分项解读 汇市 - 日元独秀 行情：美元指数微跌0.09%；美元兑日元下跌0.31%，至155.345。 动因：市场普遍预期日本央行本周五将加息，这为日元提供了持续支撑。美元则在等待本国数据指引。 重点要闻速览 行情：美原油收于 56.82美元/桶，下跌1.08%；布油收于60.56美元/桶， ...