1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished steel products have slightly declined. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern and is sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The upper space is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply, while the lower space is supported by restocking expectations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact and high - volatility risk of previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate on the market sentiment. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are still weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. For polysilicon, the demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news [15][17]. - The glass price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand. The soda ash market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1211 tons to 55633 tons, and the position increased by 40419 hands to 1.7818 million hands. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3210 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3317 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4706 tons to 108701 tons, and the position increased by 63008 hands to 1.4409 million hands. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, demand has continued to weaken, and inventory has continued to decline slightly; the production of rebar has increased counter - seasonally, demand has declined, and inventory has slightly accumulated. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening. Focus on the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.81% (-15.00). The position decreased by 29907 hands to 636700 hands, and the weighted position was 962000 hands. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.86% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. Demand: The daily average hot - metal output has continued to rise, and the steel mill profitability has slightly declined. Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 1.80% at 5892 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5780 yuan/ton, with a basis of 78 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 3.28% at 5668 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 182 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of previous "sentiment leaders" on the market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8535 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.96% (-445). The weighted position increased by 13815 hands to 379966 hands. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 665 yuan/ton [13]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8.04% (-4690). The weighted position decreased by 12083 hands to 116672 hands. The average price of SMM - caliber N - type granular silicon increased by 4 yuan/kg to 54.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was 1890 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [15]. - Polysilicon: The demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of enterprises and the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1163 yuan/ton, up 1.31% (+15). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1348000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55.518 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 75448 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 28120 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 2.52% (-32). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164400 tons to 1.5727 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 54910 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 86643 hands [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand [20]. - Soda ash: The market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [22].

铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 858.0 | 839.0 | 19.0 | I01-I05 | 45.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | | DCE05 | 813.0 | 828.0 | -15.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 23.5 | -2.5 | | DCE09 | 792.0 | 804.5 | -12.5 | I09-I01 | -66.0 | -34.5 | -31.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 828 | 809 | 19 | 899 | 52 | 63 | 87 | | 纽曼粉 | 830 | 811 | 19 | 908 | 61 | 72 | 95 | | 麦克粉 | 834 | 812 | 22 | 920 | 73 | 84 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.44%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, supply continued to increase while demand was weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. The price of rebar in the off - season remained under pressure, with cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.48%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, the commodity sentiment is positive, and combined with the strong trend of raw materials, the hot - rolled coil price rebounded from a low level. But the supply - increase and demand - weak situation has not improved the fundamentals, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and both volume and open interest decreased. At present, the market sentiment is positive, and the iron ore price remains at a high level. However, the supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the average annual operating rate of excavators in China was 56.9%. The average working hours of major construction machinery products were 926 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15%. The operating rate of major construction machinery products was 55.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 percentage points [7]. - In 2025, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 30 cities reached 214 million square meters, a new high in the past five years, mainly driven by price - for - volume factors. The average transaction price of second - hand housing in 30 cities retreated by about 39% from the previous high, and the median price decline of popular second - hand housing communities was about 26.07%. In Shanghai, 693 high - end second - hand residential properties worth over 30 million yuan were sold in 2025, accounting for 43% of the national market in this segment [8]. - A Brazilian court has ruled to resume the environmental permit process for the expansion project of Samarco's iron ore mine in Minas Gerais. The project was previously halted due to environmental permit disputes. Samarco's current annual production capacity is about 15 million tons, and the expansion plan aims to achieve medium - and long - term production capacity recovery [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,210, and 3,352 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,321 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 0, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 815, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 787. The sea freight from Australia was 8.18, and from Brazil was 22.06. The SGX swap price (current month) was 108.85, and the Platts index (CFR) was 109.25 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 1,350,602, a decrease of 586,620, and the open interest was 1,781,802, an increase of 40,419 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,317, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume was 696,880, a decrease of 246,626, and the open interest was 1,440,895, an increase of 63,008 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 813.0, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume was 442,605, a decrease of 48,010, and the open interest was 636,674, a decrease of 29,907 [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, national 45 - port iron ore inventories (including inventory and its seasonal changes, and inventory month - on - month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19]. - It also shows charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills have continued to resume production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise with room for further increase. The demand for rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although the high - frequency transactions increased due to holiday factors, both the apparent demand and high - frequency transactions were at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mills' production stabilized. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise and remained at a relatively high level. With a high inventory level, the supply pressure was not relieved, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month. The high - frequency daily transactions were at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provided some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions were accumulating, and export performance was average, so there were concerns about demand. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken, and the inventory reached a high level. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore began to rise. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased slightly last week. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability was limited, and the steel market entered the off - season, making it difficult to support a large - scale resumption of production by steel mills. The improvement in iron ore demand was limited, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills was a relative positive factor. At the same time, the port arrivals rebounded again, and the shipments from overseas miners declined as expected. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Even though domestic mine production was seasonally weak, the overall supply remained at a high level. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a state of oscillation, waiting for new driving forces. The black - sector needs new drivers and capital inflow. The iron and steel industry shows weak supply - demand, but iron - water production is stabilizing and rising, which weakens the negative impact on furnace materials. There is a de - stocking pressure in the plate market, but price support exists at low levels. Unilateral trading can adopt an oscillatory approach, and after January, it is more favorable for spot - futures positions [2]. - The sentiment of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has turned positive, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost of silicon - iron is expected to rise due to differential electricity prices, but the impact is limited. Demand is poor and at a yearly low, while supply remains high, leading to a risk of price decline despite policy support [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke markets are oscillating. The spot market has a fifth - round price cut expectation, but the futures market rebounded after pricing in the cut. The market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking next week [9]. - The iron ore market is rising in resonance with other commodities. The price fluctuates greatly at high levels and should not be short - sold in the short term. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the price has an upper limit. Iron - water production is expected to stabilize and rise in January [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On January 7th, the far - month contract closing prices and their changes were as follows: RB2610 was 3235 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan (2.96%); HC2610 was 3353 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (2.76%); I2609 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan (3.94%); J2609 was 1851.5 yuan/ton, up 137 yuan (7.99%); JM2609 was 1246.5 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (7.97%). The near - month contract closing prices and their changes were also provided, such as RB2605 at 3187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (2.87%) [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: The cross - month spreads, such as RB2605 - 2610 at - 48 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), and the spreads/ratios like the coil - rebar spread at 145 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), were also presented [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On January 7th, the Shanghai rebar price was 3340 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Tianjin rebar price was 3190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Guangzhou rebar price was 3540 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Tangshan billet price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Guangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot Prices**: The prices of other products such as coking coal, coke, and iron ore were also given, along with their price changes [1]. Market Analysis by Product Steel - The steel market is in an oscillatory state. Macroscopically, there is a lack of new drivers, and the black - sector needs new impetus. Industrially, the supply - demand of five major steel products is weak, but iron - water production is rising, weakening the negative impact on furnace materials. The plate market has de - stocking pressure, but price support exists at low levels [2]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The sentiment has turned positive, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost of silicon - iron is expected to rise, but the impact is limited. Demand is poor, and supply remains high, leading to a risk of price decline despite policy support [3][5]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has a fifth - round price cut expectation, and the futures market rebounded after pricing in the cut. The market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking next week [9]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is rising in resonance with other commodities. The price fluctuates greatly at high levels and should not be short - sold in the short term. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the price has an upper limit. Iron - water production is expected to stabilize and rise in January [9].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in the main iron ore futures contract and a corresponding rise in spot prices, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with total shipments down by 4.63 million tons to 32.137 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. - The shipment volume from Australia to China was 16.153 million tons, down by 2.523 million tons [5]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2743 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.085 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate is at 78.94%, up by 0.62%, and the capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability has improved to 38.1%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [4]. Inventory - As of January 2, the inventory at 45 ports is 159.7089 million tons, an increase of 0.41 million tons. Steel mill imported ore inventory rose by 0.086 million tons to 89.4654 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a state of supply-demand balance to a scenario of both supply and demand weakness, with high inventory levels exerting downward pressure on prices while low inventory levels at steel mills provide some support [7]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with a reference range of 770-840, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, policy expectations, and steel mill replenishment rhythms [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Iron ore futures rose over 4% on January 7, with a nearly 10% increase over the past two weeks, despite a market characterized by "high supply, weak demand, and high inventory" [1] - The strong financial attributes of iron ore and clear expectations for inventory replenishment are driving price stability, supported by low holding costs and a "near high, far low" contract structure [1] - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in profitability, with total profits in the black metal smelting and rolling industry reaching 111.5 billion yuan from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1752.2% [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Jinchuan Company believes that the steel industry's anti-involution in 2026 is promising, with supply clearing expected to accelerate [2] - The company highlights that stricter capacity replacement policies in the ordinary steel sector and the acceleration of domestic substitution in the special steel industry will benefit from manufacturing upgrades and technological innovation [2] - Companies like Jinling Mining are noted for their unique iron ore resources and successful application of AI in developing blending models [3]

铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 07 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 839.0 | 826.0 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | 11.0 | 25.0 | -14.0 | | DCE05 | 828.0 | 801.0 | 27.0 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | | DCE09 | 804.5 | 780.0 | 24.5 | I09-I01 | -34.5 | -46.0 | 11.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 809 | 802 | 7 | 879 | 45 | 70 | 91 | | 纽曼粉 | 811 | 804 | 7 | 887 | 53 | 78 | 99 | | 麦克粉 | 812 | 808 | 4 | 896 | 62 | 87 | 108 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the iron ore market, with a reminder to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. The macro - environment features a continued moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which boosts market confidence. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise. Although ports are in a stock - piling trend, mill inventories are at a medium - low level, with potential for future stockpiling. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 828.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan. The position volume is 666,581 hands, up 25,713 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 23.5 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 15,395 hands, up 4,518 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 1,800.00 hands, down 600.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 109 US dollars/ton, up 2.53 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 869 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 868 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port is 771 yuan/dry ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) is 106.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 2.97, down 0.07. The estimated import cost is 861 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,213.70 tons, down 463.40 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,824.70 tons, up 96.90 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 16,721.79 tons, up 101.83 tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,946.54 tons, up 86.35 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,054.00 tons, down 77.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.56 tons, down 0.25 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00 tons, down 45.90 tons. The BDI index is 1,830.00, down 21.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.20 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars. The iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.13 US dollars/ton, down 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.96%, up 0.66%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.95%, up 3.10%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 14.73%, up 2.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 17.24%, up 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.72%, up 2.82% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.1 tons, showing a slight rebound. The current inventory is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter. On January 5, Australian iron ore producer Fenix Resources released its Q4 2025 operations update. The company shipped 1.241 million wet tons of iron ore in the quarter, breaking through one million tons in a single quarter for the first time and setting a new record [2].

1月6日，主要铁矿石外盘报价环比前一交易日上涨0.5美元/吨，青岛港（601298）主要品位铁矿石价格 较前一交易日上涨2元/吨。 【市场资讯】 1月6日：全国主港铁矿石成交133.6万吨，环比上涨32.02%；远期现货成交144.5万吨。 2025年12月29日-2026年1月4日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1158.3万吨，环比 增加56.1万吨，呈小幅回升态势。目前库存量略低于第四季度以来的平均水平。 分析观点： 三立期货研报：最近铁矿石在黑色链条中表现属于一枝独秀。目前铁矿石主力合约已经突破下半年以来 的震荡区间上沿，今天一度触及最近新高。从基本面角度来看，铁矿最近的偏强走势离不开铁矿补库的 预期。由于钢厂铁矿库存一直处于低位，叠加最近钢厂高炉开工出现回升，铁水产量小幅增加，铁矿石 的近期需求边际回暖。而一季度通常属于进口铁矿的发运淡季，未来供应回落有一定预期。在供减需增 的预期下，铁矿维持积极的情绪，短期偏强运行。 2026年1月7日铁矿石现 货价格表 | 品种 | 品牌/产地 | 价格（元/ | 规格 | 报价类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...