Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The accident at Rio Tinto's SimFer mine in Guinea has a limited impact, but it has boosted the overall bullish sentiment. The supply of iron ore may show a pattern of low first and high later, while the demand remains strong, and the reduction in production may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price. The demand for downstream steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Overall, the current bullish sentiment is strong, and the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the September 3 parade on the demand for downstream construction steel products need to be further observed [7][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 25, the main iron ore outer market quotes increased by 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main-grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract began to narrow [9] 1.2 Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an employee of a contracting company died in an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea on August 22. All activities at the SimFer mine have been suspended. The impact of the accident is limited, and production is expected to resume soon, but the overall bullish sentiment has been boosted [10] - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased last week. Considering the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival volume may show a pattern of low first and high later [11] - Demand: Currently, the production enthusiasm of enterprises remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, still remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Regarding the September 3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel research, some steel enterprises reported receiving oral notices on the morning of the 17th, but whether to reduce production still depends on future weather conditions. From the current weather situation, the production reduction may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price [11] - Downstream: The demand for steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Considering that infrastructure projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may face phased shutdowns before September 3, and the expansion of US steel and aluminum tariffs, a cautious attitude is recommended [11] 2. Industry News - On the afternoon of August 25, the Market Committee of the China Coking Industry Association held a special market analysis meeting. Representatives of key coking enterprises from Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and other places attended the meeting. The participating representatives agreed that the coking market should raise prices again as soon as possible. The participating enterprises reached the following resolutions: Starting from 0:00 on August 26, the price of tamping wet quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry quenched coke will be increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top-loaded coke will be increased by 75 yuan/ton [12] 3. Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis of iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax-free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [16][23][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored. The fundamentals are stable, with the demand showing certain resilience and the supply remaining relatively stable, but the upward driving force is not strong as the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term trend is moderately strong with fluctuations, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is moderately weak with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are stable and the ore price fluctuates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has stabilized at a high level, and the demand shows certain resilience, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking and production restrictions are frequent, so the positive effect is limited. The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined again, but the shipments from overseas miners have stabilized at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase. The domestic ore supply is weak, and the overall ore supply is relatively stable. Currently, the ore demand has resilience and the market sentiment has improved, strongly supporting the ore price, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high, so the upward driving force is not strong [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - atmosphere has improved. Fed Chairman Powell signaled dovishness at the Jackson Hole Symposium, boosting the expectation of a September interest rate cut and commodity prices. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and approaching military parade also contribute to an optimistic market atmosphere. - For steel products, the weekly production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The production and demand of hot - rolled coils both increased, and the inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall off - season inventory accumulation is within expectations, and as the off - season turns to the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the supply - demand structure of finished products is expected to improve. With the strong raw material end, the cost support has shifted upwards. It is expected that steel prices will have a phased upward trend after the previous correction and should be treated with a bullish bias. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil has increased slightly, and the arrival volume has slightly declined. The supply pressure is not significant. Pig iron production remains at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent. Considering the relatively warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, iron ore prices are expected to remain firm in the short term and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. - For coking coal and coke, the coal mine production has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is not obvious. The seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has recovered, with a slight increase in production. With the current warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain firm and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. [3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - The industry is still in the off - season inventory accumulation stage. Rebar production decreased while demand increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, with a slight continuous inventory increase. The raw material end showed signs of pressure at high levels, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. Steel prices were weakly adjusted in a volatile manner, with futures prices falling more than spot prices, and the basis widened. [9] 02 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of national rebar was 214.65 tons (down 2.63% month - on - month and up 33.66% year - on - year), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and up 4.82% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar production decreased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates also decreased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both shrank. [15][17][28] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 1.948 million tons (up 2.56% month - on - month and down 10.79% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2127 million tons (up 2.07% month - on - month and up 0.84% year - on - year). [35][37] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulation slowed down, with both social and factory inventories increasing. The total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons (up 3.38% month - on - month and down 6.87% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly, with social inventory rising and factory inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.6144 million tons (up 1.11% month - on - month and down 18.27% year - on - year). [41][46] - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.33% month - on - month and decreased by 14.85% year - on - year, while the land market remained sluggish. In July 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, down 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month and up 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, up 12.7% and 12% year - on - year. [49][52] 03 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.85 (up 0.04% month - on - month and up 0.47% year - on - year). The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.927 million tons (up 0.86% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.933 million tons (down 3.36% month - on - month and down 6.76% year - on - year). [59] - **Demand**: Pig iron daily production was 2.4075 million tons (up 0.09 million tons month - on - month and up 16.29 million tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.2574 million tons (down 2.67% month - on - month and up 7.64% year - on - year). [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 138.452 million tons (up 0.19% month - on - month and down 9.93% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.6547 million tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year). [70] 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.21% (up 1.77% month - on - month and down 6.34% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 153,500 tons (down 7.03% month - on - month and down 10.33% year - on - year). [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.05% (down 6.46% week - on - week and up 7.30% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 73.64% (down 10.28% week - on - week and up 28.36% year - on - year). [79] - **Coke Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was + 23 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 60 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.42% (up 0.11% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year). [86] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 8.2371 million tons (down 0.68% month - on - month and up 26.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.6149 million tons (up 2.35% month - on - month and down 26.42% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 394,700 tons (up 0.41% month - on - month and down 15.82% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1462 million tons (down 0.23% month - on - month and up 12.24% year - on - year). [92][98] - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 230 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,440 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year). [104] 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread contracted at a high level. [106][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly due to the mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply pressure, and limited inventory pressure [1][53][55]. - For steel, despite the pressure on macro - economic indicators in July, the end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. For iron ore, although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][53][55]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Supply - demand marginally loose and "anti - involution" policy with expected difference, steel and iron ore futures prices fluctuate downwards - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts fluctuated downwards. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.16%, 2.27%, and 0.77% respectively. The macro - economic data in July showed pressure on the economy, and the supply of steel and iron ore increased significantly, with off - season factors still affecting, resulting in a marginally loose supply - demand situation. Also, the "anti - involution" policy implementation is market - based, and the short - term implementation may fall through, suppressing the bullish sentiment [6]. II. Steel supply - demand marginally tight, iron ore supply under pressure and demand with resilience, the pressure of inventory accumulation for steel and iron ore may be limited (1) Steel: Supply under pressure and demand warming up, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Terminal demand may show resilience**: Although macro - economic indicators in July were under pressure, the end of the "severe flood season" may relieve adverse weather factors, and the implementation of policies and project starts may improve the terminal demand for steel, especially for building materials [8][10][53]. - **Supply may be under marginal pressure**: Although steel mills' profits are okay, the approaching 9.3 parade may lead to significant production - restriction pressure on steel mills in North China, and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may also limit the supply [26][53]. - **Limited pressure of inventory accumulation**: Although the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced and the real demand is still under pressure, the demand - side policies and the resilience of terminal demand may limit the pressure of inventory accumulation for rebar and hot - rolled coil [38]. (2) Iron ore: Demand under marginal pressure but with resilience and limited inventory pressure, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Demand with marginal pressure but resilience**: The upcoming 9.3 parade and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may put marginal pressure on iron ore demand. However, steel mills' profits are okay, and the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced, so the demand may still have resilience [43][44][55]. - **Limited pressure of supply tightness**: Although the arrival of foreign ore decreased last week, the foreign ore shipment may return to normal, and the new production capacity of foreign mines and overseas equity mines may increase, so the pressure of supply tightness may be limited [46][47]. - **Limited inventory accumulation**: Due to the potential production - restriction of steel mills, iron ore demand may be under marginal pressure. But considering the resilience of demand, the accumulation of port inventory may be limited [49][52][55]. III. Mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply under pressure, and limited inventory pressure, steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Steel**: The end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel producers and high - inventory traders are advised to speed up sales, while low - inventory traders and end - users can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market. Investors can take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [2][53]. - **Iron ore**: Although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel mills and low - inventory traders can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market, while high - inventory traders can speed up sales. Investors can trade within a range, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [3][55].

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural price recovery in the context of anti-involution, with significant price variations across different sectors, indicating a phase of "structural recovery + inter-industry differentiation" [1][2][3] Price Tracking of Key Production Materials - As of early August 2025, among 49 major products, 19 saw price increases, 28 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable. The price increases were primarily in upstream coal (e.g., anthracite, coke), midstream agriculture (e.g., soybean meal, natural rubber), and downstream chemicals (e.g., sulfuric acid, methanol) [1] - Year-on-year data shows that industrial products are still in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is stabilizing. Steel and some chemical products have begun to recover, while coal, coke, traditional building materials, and certain petrochemical products remain at low levels [1][2] Price Changes Across Industry Chains - Recent data indicates that upstream industries are generally weak, with coal prices declining by 6% to 7%. Oil prices (WTI, Brent) have seen double-digit declines, while natural gas prices, despite being high year-on-year (28%), have significantly narrowed in growth [2] - Midstream industries show signs of recovery, with the bulk commodity index and shipping index rebounding, while downstream industries remain weak, particularly in real estate and traditional Chinese medicine [2][3] Industry Price Sentiment Data - The report analyzes price changes across the supply chain, revealing that upstream resource prices are generally weak but differentiated, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals benefiting, while the oil and coal sectors remain under pressure [3] - The midstream bulk commodity index has rebounded, and the price decline of rebar has narrowed to near stability. However, the building materials sector continues to face significant negative pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating, and the steel mills' profit is gradually shrinking. If the demand fails to improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [3]. - For iron ore, although the supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season, the contradiction between high hot metal production and weak terminal demand needs attention. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - For ferrous alloys, the prices are affected by emotions in the short term. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The fundamental problems of over - supply in manganese silicon and silicon iron still exist [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and polysilicon will maintain a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and high - volatility operation [16][17]. - For glass and soda ash, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center of soda ash may gradually rise, but the upward space is limited [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3361 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand had a slight recovery but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 770.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50). The weighted position was 82.93 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.71 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4075 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous period. Port inventory continued to rise slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrous Alloys - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.10%, and the silicon iron main contract (SF511) closed up 0.07% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of silicon iron, and the supply also showed a continuous recovery trend [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, up 1.27% (+ 110). The weighted contract position decreased by 5333 hands to 523742 hands [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand remained. Production continued to rise, and the demand support for prices was limited [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 51405 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 125). The weighted contract position decreased by 8014 hands to 327469 hands [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It maintained a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Production remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes**: The spot price was 1220 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, inventory pressure increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center might gradually rise in the long term [20].