Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline today, with over 5000 stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02%. The total trading volume for A-shares was 1.98 trillion yuan, compared to 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [1]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 980 billion yuan today, with a net outflow of 392.77 billion yuan at the opening and 143.68 billion yuan at the close, totaling 985.55 billion yuan for the day [2]. - The net outflow of main funds in the CSI 300 index was 267.85 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 377.44 billion yuan [4]. Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest net outflows included: - Power Equipment: -182.87 billion yuan, with notable outflows from Sunshine Power - Basic Chemicals: -135.91 billion yuan, with significant outflows from Yongtai Technology - Electronics: -120.44 billion yuan, with major outflows from Shenghong Technology - Non-ferrous Metals: -111.34 billion yuan, with outflows from Ganfeng Lithium - Pharmaceutical and Biological: -93.15 billion yuan, with outflows from Mindray Medical [6]. Institutional Activity - The top stocks with institutional net buying included: - Tianhua New Energy: -19.71% with a net buying amount of 28,778.66 thousand yuan - Yidian Tianxia: +19.99% with a net buying amount of 8,642.86 thousand yuan - Anni Co., Ltd.: +1.29% with a net buying amount of 3,080.14 thousand yuan [8]. Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings and target prices for selected stocks include: - Boyuan Chemical: Strong Buy with a target price of 9.00 yuan, current price 7.08 yuan, potential upside of 27.12% - Aopu Mai: Strong Buy with a target price of 69.00 yuan, current price 54.81 yuan, potential upside of 25.89% - Haolaike: Strong Buy with a target price of 17.30 yuan, current price 15.37 yuan, potential upside of 12.56% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current phase of the A-share market, analyzing it through the lens of the classic bull market three-stage theory, and emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies in investment as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [4][6][25]. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - The bull market is divided into three stages: valuation recovery, performance-driven growth, and emotional-driven bubble [6][7]. - The first stage, characterized by policy shifts and risk appetite recovery, has been completed as of October 2024, with the market returning to historical valuation levels [7][9]. - The second stage, currently in progress, focuses on performance verification, with A-share companies' profits growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and significant growth in sectors like TMT and manufacturing [9][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The TMT sector showed strong performance, with electronic profits up 45.3% year-on-year, and AI-related indices seeing profits increase by 83.3% [10]. - The midstream manufacturing sector also performed well, with profits in the power equipment and new energy sectors growing by 52.5% [10]. - The energy and materials sector benefited from policy changes, with industrial metals and precious metals seeing profit increases of 45.2% and 58.7%, respectively [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The current market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced strategy, moving from an aggressive "only attack" approach to a more defensive "balance attack and defense" strategy [18][25]. - A suggested allocation strategy includes maintaining a 50% equity position, diversifying across growth, stable, high-dividend, and cyclical sectors to mitigate risks [19][20]. - The article warns that if the market enters the third phase characterized by bubble-like valuations and extreme market sentiment, a shift to a defensive strategy will be necessary [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article highlights the importance of sustainable performance growth, questioning whether the current high growth in tech stocks can be maintained amid macroeconomic challenges [13][14]. - It draws parallels with the U.S. market's slow bull experience, emphasizing the need for solid earnings support for a sustainable bull market [14]. - The article concludes that for the A-share market to transition into a long-term bull market, several factors, including macroeconomic stability and improved corporate governance, must be addressed [16][25].

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot spots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing stocks that consistently hit new highs. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_{t}}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_{t} $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][12][13] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market leaders and trends effectively. It references studies by George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which highlight the importance of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs for superior returns [11][18] - The report provides backtesting results for the "250-day new high distance" model across major indices as of November 21, 2025. The distances are: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45% [12][13][32] - The report introduces a factor named "Stable New High Stocks" to identify stocks with smooth price paths and sustained momentum. The factor construction involves: - Analyst attention: At least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months - Relative strength: Top 20% in 250-day price change - Price stability: Ranking top 50% based on metrics like price displacement ratio and smoothness of 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Ranking top 50 stocks based on the average 250-day new high distance over the past five days [24][27][28] - The report evaluates the "Stable New High Stocks" factor positively, citing research by Turan G Bali et al. (2011) and Da et al. (2012), which demonstrate the superior returns of stocks with smooth momentum paths compared to those with jumpy price movements [24][27] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show 15 selected stocks, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. These stocks are distributed across manufacturing and cyclical sectors, with manufacturing focusing on construction and cyclical sectors on non-ferrous metals [28][31][33]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Huatai (SZ 001217) held its sixth session of the eighth board meeting on November 21, 2025, to discuss organizational adjustments [1] - For the first half of 2025, Huatai's revenue composition was 79.17% from basic chemicals and 20.83% from fine chemicals [1] - As of the report date, Huatai's market capitalization was 4.4 billion yuan [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower and continued to fluctuate throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and closing at a loss of 2.45% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.41% and 4.02%, respectively, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion from the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - A total of 351 stocks rose while 5,071 stocks declined, with 26 stocks remaining flat [3] - The seed industry concept showed strength, with Qianyuan High-Tech rising over 16%, while the aquaculture sector was active with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery and Zhangzidao hitting the daily limit [3] - Lithium mining and salt lake lithium extraction concepts saw significant declines, with multiple stocks including Dazhong Mining and Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit down [3][4] Sector Analysis - The media and entertainment sectors saw notable gains, with stocks like Yidian Tianxia and Visual China hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [4] - The home appliance sector showed strength, with stocks like Haier Smart Home and Midea Group performing well [5] - The agricultural sector also experienced a brief surge, with Qianyuan High-Tech and other seed companies seeing gains [5] Broader Market Trends - The current market adjustment is viewed as a reflection of global capital market interactions, with technology stocks, particularly in AI, experiencing declines [7] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing adjustment presents an opportunity for investment, particularly in sectors driven by AI demand [7] - The outlook for A-shares remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a "low volatility slow bull" market, driven by high overseas exposure companies contributing significantly to profits and market value [7][8] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its cautious trend, with attention on upcoming domestic and international economic data [9] - Analysts recommend focusing on defensive sectors such as insurance and banking, while also monitoring sectors like lithium mining for potential upward movement [9][10]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][24] - As of November 21, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index 8.65%, CSI 300 6.20%, CSI 500 9.69%, CSI 1000 7.59%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 12.16%, and STAR 50 Index 16.45% [5][24] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, basic chemicals, home appliances, and steel [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 1,127 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment and new energy sectors [2][13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the textiles and apparel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective proportions of 41.41%, 38.89%, and 38.71% [13][24] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 364 and 315 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 15 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Heertai, Sry New Materials, and Cangge Mining, with the manufacturing and cyclical sectors contributing the most stocks [3][20][25] - The construction industry had the highest number of new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the non-ferrous metals industry led in the cyclical sector [20][25]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "market perform" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and resource attributes under the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in industry profitability [2] - All 18 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector reported year-on-year revenue and profit growth, with significant differentiation among them, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and demand recovery [3] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin have shown signs of recovery since early 2024, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% in the first three quarters of 2025, both reflecting slight year-on-year increases [4] - Sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals, potash fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers have experienced notable improvements in profitability [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The basic chemical industry maintains a stable financial position, with a slight decrease in the asset-liability ratio, improved operating cash flow, and a decline in construction projects [5] - Inventory turnover days have increased slightly year-on-year, indicating changes in inventory management [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with revenues of 564.21 billion yuan and 188.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters and third quarter respectively, reflecting declines of 2.21% and 1.03% year-on-year [6] - Net profits for Henan's chemical companies also fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.33% and 26.70% for the respective periods [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][7]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry has shown a continued recovery in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year [3][10]. - The industry is experiencing a bottom recovery trend, with most sub-industries showing improved performance in revenue and profit compared to the previous quarter [11][14]. - The profitability of the industry is stabilizing, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17%, both showing slight year-on-year increases [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Profitability and Recovery - The basic chemical industry has seen revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant improvements in Q3 compared to Q2 [10][11]. - Among 33 sub-industries, 18 reported revenue growth, with notable increases in agricultural chemicals, fluorochemicals, and new energy-related sectors [3][14]. 2. Profitability Trends - The overall gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.69%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin was 6.17%, also showing a year-on-year rise [18][19]. - Sub-industry performance varied, with fluorochemicals, potassium fertilizers, and synthetic resins showing significant improvements in profitability [23][24]. 3. Financial Indicators - The industry maintained a low debt-to-asset ratio, with improved operating cash flow and a decrease in construction projects, indicating a potential easing of overcapacity pressures [7][18]. - The inventory turnover days have slightly increased, suggesting a decline in operational efficiency [7][18]. 4. Regional Performance - Chemical companies in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with declines in both revenue and profit [7][16]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and those with strong resource attributes, such as potassium fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals, in the context of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant adjustment with all three major indices declining, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.18% [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 3.32%, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite as the year-end approaches [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline with a drop of 4.77%, while steel, basic chemicals, power equipment, and telecommunications sectors all fell by over 3.5%, indicating profit-taking behavior from investors in previously high-performing sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage showed resilience, with declines not exceeding 0.6%, attracting funds seeking safety [1] Notable Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, the China Shipbuilding Industry Index surged by 4.7%, driven by policy and funding support, particularly in the defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [2] - The recent adjustment in the market correlates with a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, influenced by concerns over AI valuation bubbles, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical selling pressure [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "structural differentiation and volatile consolidation," with a noticeable decline in the willingness to invest due to external pressures from U.S. market dynamics [3] - There is a shift in investment style towards balanced and defensive strategies, moving away from growth sectors, although technology sectors representing new productive forces remain a long-term focus [3] - The current market decline is viewed as a test of patience for investors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on value amidst short-term volatility [3]