农产品期货 - filings, earnings calls, financial reports, news

农产品期货

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Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:58

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] Report's Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue range - bound in the short - term and are expected to be optimistic after seasonal pressure in the long - term. Sugar prices have a downward fundamental drive in the short - term with limited further decline and potential for a weak rebound, and may be unoptimistic in the long - term. Pulp prices have limited upside space due to unimproved supply - demand [3][5][8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang had a factory price of 14,854 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [1] - As of November 30, 2025/26, Pakistan's new - season seed cotton equivalent to lint was about 796,000 tons, down 1.1% year - on - year. Domestic mills bought about 666,000 tons, exported about 27,000 tons, and the unsold inventory was about 103,000 tons [1] Sugar - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills in the province had started production (5 last year). 439,400 tons of sugarcane were crushed, producing 44,800 tons of sugar. The sales volume was 32,200 tons, with an inventory of 12,600 tons [4] Pulp - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5496 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.70%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, the price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp was 5525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise, with a slow market transaction [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, USDA raised the 2025/26 global cotton production significantly, while consumption increased slightly. End - of - season inventory rose and is in a stock - building phase. US cotton has increased sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure; in the long - term, it has limited downward space but unclear upward drive [2] - Domestically, 2025/26 is expected to see increased cotton production. The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will be restricted by hedging. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downward space of the futures is also limited [2] Sugar - For raw sugar, Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound have put pressure on the market. In the short - term, the downward space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume and the start of sugar mills in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [5] Pulp - In terms of supply, overseas pulp mills have announced shutdowns and production cuts. In terms of demand, European port inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy Cotton - Neutral. Expect range - bound in the short - term. Be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure in the long - term [3] Sugar - Neutral. The short - term downward space is limited, with potential for a weak rebound. The long - term outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp - Neutral. The upward space is limited due to unimproved supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]