Report on Various Commodity Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Red Dates**: The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-increasing demand". Festival stockpiling shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under a favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulation on demand. The stable spot - end price supports the lower limit of the futures price, but there is significant hedging pressure above, leading to low - level range - bound trading [1]. - **Apples**: In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival stockpiling season. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - produced apples with high cost - effectiveness are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market fluctuates at a high level, with the near - term prices stronger than the long - term ones [3]. - **Oils**: For palm oil, concerns about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia will suppress the market. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a range - bound pattern. For soybean oil, the US - Iran relationship may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient despite reduced factory inventory, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to fluctuate around 8000 yuan. For rapeseed oil, it was boosted by potential Iranian oil export restrictions and then fell due to Indonesia's palm oil policy and cooling macro - sentiment, maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The spot market has high - level consolidation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, there is obvious reluctance to sell, and downstream enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling supports prices. In North China, there is a strong reluctance to sell high - quality grains, and prices fluctuate narrowly. Demand - side shows low inventory in northern ports and deep - processing enterprises, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. Policy - driven corn auctions continue but with limited scale. Overall, the corn market has support from tight supply and downstream demand but is restricted by policy - released corn, resulting in high - level range - bound trading [7]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig sales have decreased, while southern demand has dropped notably. Although there is still some second - fattening restocking locally, the overall enthusiasm is limited due to high pig prices. The market anticipates Spring Festival consumption, but with expected large - scale sales in mid - to - late January, the supply in January is relatively loose. The basis is strong, and the futures price has upward - correction momentum, but there is no obvious fundamental positive factor, so it is recommended to short after the price stabilizes [10]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures are in a weak range - bound trend. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvest, and the rainfall in December is beneficial for the next season's cane growth. India's sugar production is strong, while Thailand's sugar - making progress is slow. Domestically, the production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are a mix of positive and negative factors, in line with market expectations. With the approaching Spring Festival, trading is fair due to stockpiling demand, and enterprises mainly sell at current prices. New domestic sugar is on the market in large quantities, and sugar prices are expected to remain low - level range - bound [13][14]. - **Meals**: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production, decreased exports, and increased the US soybean inventory, causing the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support around 1050 cents. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and auctions suppress the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and there is uncertainty in the arrival schedule, there is still room for speculation on customs clearance. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the futures price maintains range - bound trading [15]. - **Eggs**: The recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' willingness to sell laying hens and slightly decreasing the number of culled chickens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. Spring Festival stockpiling drives demand, but the high - price area is cautious. After the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and the futures price is expected to remain low - level range - bound [17]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows a double - decline in US cotton production and ending stocks. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas is rising, and USDA export sales are continuously declining, with export expectations likely to be lowered. In Xinjiang, the cotton inspection progress is faster than usual, and commercial inventory is rising, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have strong price - holding intentions as they have a fast de - stocking speed and reduced sales pressure. But Xinjiang textile enterprises' profits and inland textile enterprises' cash flow have been compressed, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference may increase the competitiveness of imported cotton. Overall, short - term cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Red Dates 2605) rose from 9060 to 9130, an increase of 70 or 0.77%. Other contracts also had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were stable, with the special - grade price rising slightly by 0.11% [1]. - **Basis and Other Indicators**: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates to the main contract decreased by 64.71%, and the position decreased by 0.61%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 0.07%, while the effective forecast increased by 26.00%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 3.02% [1]. Apples - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Apple 2605) rose from 9779 to 9934, an increase of 155 or 1.59%. The Apple 2610 contract fell by 0.67% [3]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The basis decreased by 9.82%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 17.25%. The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, while the futures position increased by 3.80%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 10.99%, and the on - disk profit decreased by 6.35% [3]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price (Y2605) decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 9.68%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.68%, the futures price (P2605) increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 13.64%. The on - disk import cost decreased by 0.38%, the on - disk import profit increased by 19.74%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72% [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.40%, the futures price (OI605) increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 330 [5]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as the inter - period spreads of different oils and the spot and futures spreads between different oils [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The Corn 2603 price decreased by 0.53%, the basis increased by 10.61%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 375.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 45.45%, the import profit decreased by 1.95%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.37%, the position decreased by 1.56%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.61% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The Corn Starch 2603 price decreased by 0.70%, the basis increased by 11.18%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 38.46%, the 03 on - disk spread between starch and corn decreased by 2.17%, the position increased by 0.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis decreased by 17.84%, the Pig 2605 contract increased by 0.74%, the Pig 2603 contract increased by 1.82%, the 3 - 5 spread increased by 33.33%, the main - contract position increased by 4.63%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan were stable [10]. - **Spot Indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.13%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 6.45%, the weekly piglet price increased by 0.92%, the weekly sow price increased slightly by 0.03%, the weekly出栏 weight decreased by 0.09%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 66.64%, the weekly purchased - breeding profit increased by 95.22%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [10]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The Sugar 2605 contract increased by 0.88%, the Sugar 2609 contract increased by 0.72%, the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.13%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 61.54%, the main - contract position decreased by 0.23%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.53%, and the effective forecast decreased by 11.60% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, the price in Kunming remained unchanged, the Nanning basis decreased by 33.64%, the Kunming basis decreased by 200.00%, the price of Brazilian imported sugar (within quota) increased by 0.27%, and the price (outside quota) increased by 0.29% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, the national and Guangxi sugar sales rates decreased, the national industrial inventory increased, the Guangxi industrial inventory decreased, and the sugar import volume decreased by 16.98% [13]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.64%, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.36%, the basis decreased by 2.64%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Brazilian February shipments decreased by 13.1%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 19.7% [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.84%, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.08%, the basis increased by 6.58%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Canadian March shipments decreased by 21.51%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.14%, the basis increased by 1.82%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.54%, the basis increased by 4.15%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% [15]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as inter - period spreads and cross - commodity spreads [15]. Eggs - **Futures Prices**: The Egg 03 contract increased by 0.57%, and the Egg 04 contract remained unchanged [17]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.40%, the basis decreased by 0.72%, the 3 - 4 spread increased by 5.99%. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased by 3.57%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [17]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The Cotton 2605 contract increased by 0.34%, the Cotton 2609 contract increased by 0.10%, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 22.58%, the main - contract position increased by 0.62%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.07%, and the effective forecast decreased by 5.57% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.40%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1.18%, the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged, and the basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts increased [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 10.0%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textile products decreased by 44.4%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports decreased by 530.5%, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 15.7% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The market anticipates a potential easing of China-Canada trade relations, which has led to a decline in vegetable oil products and dragged down the price of soybean oil. The price trend of palm oil has slowed down due to mixed factors. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased, but the supply at the raw material end is relatively sufficient, and its fundamentals are not strong. It is expected that palm oil will be stronger than soybean oil, which will be stronger than rapeseed oil. Attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities among oils and fats [1]. - The RMOB report in December was slightly bearish but had limited impact. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in December exceeded expectations and showed an upward trend. Recent institutional data also indicated a recovery in exports. As the traditional New Year in India approaches in February, the peak-season export demand may gradually become the focus of market trading. In the medium and long term, factors such as the planting area and tree age structure in the main producing regions, as well as Indonesian policies, still pose potential concerns for the supply side this year, while there are still expectations for the biodiesel policy on the demand side. In the short term, the bearish factors may have been exhausted. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, a strategy of buying on dips is currently considered [2]. - The market is still digesting the bearish impact of the USDA supply and demand report in January, and the price of US soybeans has continued to weaken. The trading volume of the basis of domestic distant-month soybean meal has increased significantly, mainly because the oil mills have good crushing profits and have lowered their quotes to lock in profits in advance, which is expected to have a bearish impact on the distant-month soybean meal. The South American soybean harvest is imminent, and the bearish factors for soybean products are expected to continue. Recently, most of the imported soybeans in the auctions have been fully sold, alleviating the previous market concerns about the supply from February to April. With sufficient supply, soybean meal is expected to be more likely to decline than to rise. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities for soybean meal and soybean No. 2. Selling out-of-the-money call options can also be considered, and a 3 - 5 calendar spread operation can be considered [3]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply and Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Farmers and middlemen are holding out for higher prices, but downstream buyers are cautious. The valuation is not low, and there is limited upward momentum. | 4060 - 4080 | 4450 - 4460 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 05 | The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the growth of South American soybeans is in good condition, and soybean auctions have resumed. | 3400 - 3450 | 3540 - 3550 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | The international oil market is weak, and the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. | 7850 - 7900 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Australian rapeseeds have not entered the crushing stage yet, and the domestic inventory continues to decline. However, the expected increase in supply and the global bumper harvest still put pressure on prices. | 8650 - 8700 | 9300 - 9350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Oils | Palm Oil 05 | Short-term bearish factors may have been exhausted, and the consumption peak season is approaching. | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways with an upward bias | Buy on dips | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The supply is sufficient, the demand is still resilient, and the auction of imported soybeans has started. The trading volume of distant-month soybean meal by oil mills has increased significantly. | 2680 - 2700 | 2800 - 2820 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 05 | The inventory is at a low level and continues to decline, but the fundamentals are still expected to be bearish. | 2270 - 2280 | 2440 - 2450 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Energy and By-products | Corn 03 | There is still support from the decline in the supply of high-quality corn. However, the wheat auction and the sales of central reserve corn have limited pressure on the market. The futures price may have support in the short term. | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Energy and By-products | Starch 03 | It follows the cost of corn and has support. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Live Hogs 03 | Feed prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthening. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Lightly go long on a trial basis | | Livestock | Eggs 05 | The number of newly opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Buy on dips | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 3 - 5 | -37 | -34 | -3 | Wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 3 - 5 | 325 | 304 | 21 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Oils | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 | 138 | 144 | -6 | Wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 | 19 | 31 | -12 | Wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 1 - 5 | -68 | -98 | 30 | Wait and see | | Protein | Soybean Meal 3 - 5 | 358 | 356 | 2 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 3 - 5 | 93 | 91 | 2 | Wait and see | | Energy and By-products | Corn 3 - 5 | -3 | 7 | -10 | Short on rallies | | Energy and By-products | Starch 3 - 5 | -37 | -30 | -7 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live Hogs 3 - 5 | -250 | -375 | 125 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 3 - 5 | -553 | -571 | 18 | Wait and see | | Oils | 05 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | -748 | -792 | 44 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil | 949 | 1031 | -82 | Bearish operation | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil | 207 | 221 | -14 | Bearish operation | | Protein | 05 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal | 462 | 447 | 15 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Soybean Oil - Meal Ratio | 2.91 | 2.89 | 0.02 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Meal Ratio | 3.91 | 3.90 | 0.01 | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By-products | 05 Corn - Starch | -305 | -314 | 9 | Temporarily wait and see | [11][12] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of the Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4080 | 4080 | -243 | 94 | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 | 3980 | 3980 | 477 | 19 | | Oilseeds | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | -342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8560 | 8560 | 570 | 6 | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil | 9750 | -100 | 801 | -35 | | Oils | Palm Oil | 8850 | -50 | 102 | -20 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 3120 | -20 | 429 | 429 | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal | 2370 | -20 | 81 | 5 | | Energy and By-products | Corn | 2310 | 10 | 47 | 11 | | Energy and By-products | Starch | 2610 | 0 | 85 | 13 | | Livestock | Live Hogs | 12.74 (yuan/kg) | 0.01 (yuan/kg) | 990 | -215 | | Livestock | Eggs | 3.16 (yuan/jin) | 0.05 (yuan/jin) | 593 | 33 | [13] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds (1) Daily Data - The table shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including the CNF price, import duty-paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. (2) Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory (Change) | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port soybeans: 837.25 (-4.86) | 53.00% | | Soybean Meal | Oil mill soybean meal: 104.40 (-12.62) | 3.00% | | Soybean Oil | Port soybean oil: 98.00 (-4.10) | - | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill rapeseeds: 6.00 (6.00); Coastal rapeseed meal: 0.00 (0.00); East China commercial rapeseed oil: 26.70 (0.00) | 28.03% (0.00%) | | Palm Oil | Inventory: 74 (0) | - | | Peanuts | Peanut inventory: 129285 (-490); Peanut oil inventory: 48080 (1162) | 43.51% (5.78%) | [17][18] 2. Feed (1) Daily Data The table shows the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including the CNF price and the import duty-paid cost [18]. (2) Weekly Data | Indicator Name | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 123.47 | -1.29 | -3.80 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 354.00 | 4.60 | -240.70 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 59.37 | -0.49 | -7.65 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 112.50 | 0.20 | 112.50 | | Grain sales progress of farmers at the grass - roots level (%) | 50.00 | 47.00 | 2.00 | [19] 3. Livestock - The table shows the daily spot prices of live hogs and eggs in different regions, as well as the weekly key data of live hogs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and other indicators [19][20][21][22] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report includes a series of fundamental tracking charts for the livestock (live hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [23][24][25] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the warehouse receipt situation of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live hog index and the egg index [101][102][103]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Red Dates - The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-rising demand". Festival stocking shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulus on demand, and explosive growth is unlikely. The stable spot price supports the lower end of the futures price, while the hedging pressure above the futures price is relatively large, and the price oscillates in a low - level range [1]. Apples - In the short term, the futures price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - sourced apples with high cost - performance are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits (such as citrus) squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market oscillates at a high level, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones [3]. Oils - Palm oil: Concerns about Indonesia's temporary non - implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia may suppress the market. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8750 yuan. - Soybean oil: The relationship between the US and Iran may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials. In China, factory soybean oil inventory has decreased, but the supply of soybeans is not short with the successful auction of 114,000 tons of soybeans by CGC. The long and short factors coexist, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to oscillate around 8000 yuan in the short term. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the possible obstruction of Iran's crude oil exports and the nearly 3% jump in US crude oil, the rapeseed oil market reached the 900 - yuan mark in the morning. In the afternoon, it fell back to around 8900 yuan due to Indonesia's decision to raise the palm oil export tax and maintain the B40 policy. The overall market maintains a wide - range oscillation pattern. The upcoming Sino - Canadian talks make the rapeseed market cautious, with significant intraday fluctuations [5]. Corn - In the Northeast, the reluctant - to - sell sentiment is obvious, and the supply volume has no significant change. Downstream enterprises have started pre - holiday stocking, supporting the price to run strongly. In North China, the reluctance to sell high - quality grains is strong, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants remains low, with prices oscillating in a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory at northern ports is low without obvious accumulation, deep - processing enterprises (especially in the Northeast) have low inventory and high stocking willingness, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the directional auction of imported corn and the competitive sales of corn continue, but the scale is limited and the auctions are highly successful. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's rigid demand for stocking strongly support the price, but the gradual release of policy - related corn also limits the price increase, and the market maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the change in farmers' selling mentality and policy release [7]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the North has decreased, while the demand in the South has declined significantly, with limited purchasing power, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, but the overall enthusiasm is limited due to the current high pig prices. The market is betting on the pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that there will be a large - scale supply in mid - to - late January, with an expected increase in the supply from large - scale farms. Currently, the basis is strong, and the futures price has the impetus to repair upwards, but there is no obvious positive factor in the fundamentals. It is recommended to short at high levels after the market stabilizes [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are falling. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvesting progress, and the rainfall in the central - southern region since December is beneficial to the growth of sugarcane in the 2026/27 season, with the initial forecast of a 3% increase in the sugarcane yield per unit area. In India, the production is strong, while in Thailand, the sugar - making season progress is slow due to government bans on burning sugarcane and holiday shutdowns, resulting in a year - on - year decrease in sugar production. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. In China, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, trading is good due to stocking demand, and enterprises mainly sell at appropriate prices. With the concentrated listing of new sugar, market participants are generally cautious, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level [13][14]. Meal Products - The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production and decreased the exports, leading to an increase in US soybean inventory and a correction in the market. In the short term, the CBOT main contract has strong support around 1050 cents, and the downward space is limited. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is fast, and the continuous supply of US soybeans and reserve auctions has maintained a loose spot market. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a high level, and auctions also suppress the market. The premium of auction transactions is small, and the market is resistant to high prices. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is still speculation about customs clearance. The downward space of soybean meal is limited, and the upper limit is mainly affected by the policy. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the futures price oscillates [15]. Eggs - The recent increase in egg prices has improved the breeding profitability, reducing the farmers' willingness to sell laying hens. The number of newly - laying hens has slightly increased, but due to the impact of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. The demand is strongly supported by Spring Festival stocking, with increased procurement in all sectors, and the internal sales in production areas are strong, but transactions in high - price areas are cautious. According to the latest survey data, on January 14, 2026, the production - link inventory in China decreased by 17.78% to 0.37 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 7.94% to 0.58 days. The Spring Festival stocking will continue to drive market demand. However, after the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and there is a possibility of a slight price correction. Overall, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows that the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand table in January has a double - decline in production and ending inventory compared to the December report. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas continues to rise, in line with the winter weak La Nina weather, but it is still early for sowing and remains to be observed. USDA export sales have been continuously declining, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The public inspection of Xinjiang cotton is progressing faster than previous years, and the commercial inventory is continuously increasing, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have a strong willingness to hold prices as the inventory reduction speed is fast and the sales pressure is significantly reduced. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference will gradually make it possible to import cotton with a 40% tariff. The negative factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing, but overall, the short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Red Dates - Futures prices: The main contract (red dates 2605) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.77% from the previous day. Other contracts also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Spot prices: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates was 9500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% [1]. - Basis: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates against the main contract was - 230 yuan/ton, a significant change [1]. - Inventory: The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3483, up 102 or 3.02% [1]. Apples - Futures prices: The main contract (apple 2605) closed at 9934 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan or 1.59% from the previous day [3]. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, such as the Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market with a 14.29% decrease [3]. - Inventory: The national cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, down 12.66 million tons or 1.73% [3]. Oils - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8530 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.47%. The Y2605 futures price was 7986 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.10%. The basis was 544 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan or 9.68% [5]. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8858 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.68%. The P2605 futures price was 8778 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.62%. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 13.64% [5]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.40%. The OI605 futures price was 9017 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 0.41%. The basis was 923 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.33% [5]. Corn - Futures prices: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.53% [7]. - Spot prices: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.21% [7]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 38762, up 614 or 1.61% [7]. Pigs - Futures prices: The main contract (pigs 2605) closed at 12260 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.74% [10]. - Spot prices: The price in Henan was 13000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [10]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 855, remaining unchanged [10]. Sugar - Futures prices: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.88% [13]. - Spot prices: The price in Nanning was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.19% [13]. - Inventory: The industrial inventory in the country was 211 million tons, up 20.6 million tons or 10.82% [13]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.64%. The M2605 futures price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.36% [15]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.84%. The RM2605 futures price was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.08% [15]. Eggs - Futures prices: The egg 03 contract closed at 3007 yuan/500KG, up 17 yuan or 0.57% [17]. - Spot prices: The price in the egg - producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan or 0.40% [17]. - Breeding data: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.34, up 0.08 or 3.42%, and the breeding profit was - 21.81 yuan/feather, up 4.79 yuan or 18.01% [17]. Cotton - Futures prices: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% [18]. - Spot prices: The arrival price of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton at the factory was 15500 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan or 1.40% [18]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons or 23.5% [18].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日玉米03主力下调0.7%；全国玉米现货平均现货价格报价2285.00元/吨；春节前有效售粮时间不足一个月，玉米价格底部支撑较强。 2．下游库存方面，全国主要深加工企业玉米库存总量354万吨，与往年同比下降40.47%，处于近年显著低位；全国饲料企业玉米平均库存天数约为30.1天， 与往年同比下降6.81%，整体呈现明显的面临利润压力下的被动补库行为特征。与此同时，拍卖的玉米量，对玉米价格形成部分压制。但考虑到节前备货的 压力，拍卖主要带来企业采购面的补充变化。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2200附近的支撑，周内缓步上行区间2300-2400。 （魏鑫 期货交易咨询从业信息： Z0014814；刘昊/期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0021277；邓昊然 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0023357，仅供参考） 豆粕：中性 1．海外市场基本定价1月USDA报告带来的利空，隔夜CBOT大豆企稳。短期美盘缺乏新的利多驱动，南美丰产前景压制价格走势，阶段性底部关注1000- 1020美分区间的支撑有效性； 2．预报显示未来一周巴西大部降雨尚可；阿 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased, and it's recommended to wait for a callback to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak due to high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas and high domestic inventories. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. - For eggs, due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups, and processing sugar mills also changed to varying degrees. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 21 yuan/ton [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar exports in December were 2.913 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the waiting sugar volume was 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility that the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production will be reduced after the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil starts in April this year. Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February, and then international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices is limited in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was strongly volatile. The closing price of the May contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the index and the main contract was 1160 yuan/ton [6]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season will be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%. Brazil's production is expected to remain at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced to 5.12 million tons; and China's production is increased to 7.51 million tons [6]. - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. The export volume to China was 146,000 tons. As of January 1, the cumulative export sales of US cotton in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons [8]. - As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, the same as the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased. It's advisable to wait for a callback to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Dongguan and Huangpu also changed [11]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%. The production of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina also has different changes. The US export volume is slightly reduced [12]. - As of January 9, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, 8.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils and fats futures prices continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7986 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8748 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also changed [15]. - The January USDA report estimates that the US soybean oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 3.05 million tons, an increase of 7.56% compared with the previous month. The production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% compared with the previous month. The exports were 1.32 million tons, an increase of 8.52% compared with the previous month [16]. - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% month - on - month. As of January 9, the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 0.1586 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 0.0702 million tons compared with the previous week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas lead to high inventory, and the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, so the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.02 yuan to 3.46 yuan/jin. The egg supply was normal, and the downstream demand was relatively normal, but some were hesitant about high - priced products. It's expected that the national egg price will be stable in most areas today with some increases [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some slight fluctuations. The average price in Henan rose 0.03 yuan to 12.99 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 12.88 yuan/kg. The breeding side was resistant to price cuts, but the poor sales of white - striped pigs by the slaughtering side restricted the price increase. It's expected that the national pig price will be mainly stable today, with slight increases in some northern areas and slight decreases in some eastern areas [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间1月14日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，原糖期货跌 1.68%报14.64美分/磅，棉花期货涨0.12%报64.96美分/磅，可可期货跌2.79%报5078.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌1.26%报355.70美分/磅。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment value [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment timing [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency but low market operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, demonstrating a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Pig: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Egg: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pig, and egg, and provides corresponding investment ratings and strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are undergoing a correction after reaching a high, with profit - taking at the peak. Short - term policy increases grain supply, but the supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious. Attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the USDA report, US soybeans are in a weak oscillation. China's soybean imports reached a record high last year. Domestic oil mills' production is increasing for peak - season demand. The probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1 is 75%, and the focus returns to US soybean exports and South American weather. If the South American weather is stable, soybean meal prices will follow the weak trend of US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil is strong due to positive biodiesel expectations, although the USDA report cut its biodiesel use. Palm oil had a short - term price correction after Indonesia's B50 policy stance. The current rise is driven by demand expectations and policies, but supply factors like South American soybean harvest and Malaysian palm oil inventory should also be considered, with a range - bound view [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today as the market focuses on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. There are expectations of a “loosening” of China - Canada rapeseed trade policies. Coastal oil mills' Australian rapeseed is not yet processed, and inventories are falling. If China - Canada relations do not improve as expected, rapeseed prices may rebound. This week, rapeseed prices are expected to be weak [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are in a weak oscillation, and US corn is still seeking a bottom. Policy - based grain supply is increasing, but overall inventory is low, and sellers are reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises are starting the Spring Festival stocking. The main driving factors are unclear, and futures will be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [7] Pig - The pig futures market is rising with increased positions, and the 03 contract hit a new high. Spot prices are stable. The strength of the macro and commodity markets is spreading to the pig market. However, due to increased supply, pig prices may hit a second bottom next year. Attention should be paid to the game between pre - Spring Festival supply and demand [8] Egg - Egg spot prices are slightly stronger, and the Hebei price is rising. The futures market is weak. Chicken - chick replenishment from August to December last year decreased by about 10% year - on - year, leading to a low number of new - laying hens in H1 2026. Egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand and supply reduction, egg prices are expected to rise. For H1 2026 contracts, a long - at - low strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy is recommended [9]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-14 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8778.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.62%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7986.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9017.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.41%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.69%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化 +6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+414.00， 环比变化+48.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差 OI05+753.00，环比变化+3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印度12月棕榈油进口量为507204吨，低于11月的632341吨，印度12月葵花籽油进口量为349929 吨，高于11月的142953吨，印度12月大豆油进口量为505112吨，高于11月的370661吨，印度12月植物油进口量为 138万吨，高于11月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [1][3][6] Core Views - The USDA report is bullish for cotton, but short - term ICE cotton is under pressure while the long - term downside is limited. Domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possible tightening of inventory at the end of the year [1] - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices [3] - Overseas pulp supply is disrupted, and there is a replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Domestic demand may show a mild recovery, and short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+0.92%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA January report, in the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu. The harvest area increased to 47.376 million mu, and the yield was expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 348,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%, and exports were expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged. Ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded. Internationally, the short - term ICE cotton is under pressure due to supply and weak consumption, but the long - term downside is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. Although downstream demand has declined recently, annual consumption is expected to be high, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced with a possible inventory tightening at the end of the year [1] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term risks of high - level corrections should be watched, and long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.61%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - As of January 12, 2026, in the 2025/26 Thai sugar season, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons (-19.94%) from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons (-21.18%) [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices closed down. The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices, but import pressure remains [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downside [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices slightly adjusted downwards [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices fluctuated narrowly. Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance in late 2025. European demand continued to improve in November, while domestic demand was weak, but there was a marginal increase in demand in December, which may support pulp prices [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak values are lower year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumer growth drivers restricts upward movement. Apple 2605 is expected to trade in a high - level range [11][21]. - Regarding the红枣 market, the expectation of reduced production may gradually manifest in the far - month contracts. The spot inventory has started to decline after reaching its peak, and the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [12][21][25]. - In the sugar market, the international sugar supply is abundant, and China is in the sugar - cane crushing season, resulting in sufficient market supply. Sugar 2605 is expected to be in a sideways - to - bearish trend [4][21]. - For the pulp market, although there are positive factors in supply and an increase in warehouse - receipt costs, the improvement in the domestic downstream market is limited, and the upward space of pulp is restricted [5][21]. - In the double - offset paper market, the spot market is stable, and the basis has widened, providing some support. However, due to the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate, the price increase is limited [7][21]. - For the cotton market, the external market is at a low level, and there are strong long - term positive expectations in the domestic market. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the price is expected to maintain an upward trend [10][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200 [21]. - Red date 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2605: Sideways - to - bearish, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400 [21]. - Pulp 2605: Bearish within a range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700 [21]. - Double - offset paper 2605: Trade within a range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350 [21]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, and the sales slightly increased. In the Shaanxi production area, the price was also stable, with good - quality apples being scarce. In the sales area, the arrival of goods was stable, but the sales speed slowed down slightly [22][23][24]. - **Red Date Market** - As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales [25]. - **Sugar Market** - Ukraine's sugar exports in 2025 decreased to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 8, 2026, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period of the previous season, with a sugar production of 5.6297 million tons. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%, and the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.03% [27]. - **Pulp Market** - As of December 31, the price of pulp remained stable. Coniferous and broad - leaved pulp prices increased by $20/ton. In November, the global pulp shipment decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the shipment to China decreased more than the global average. However, the overseas producer inventory remained at a two - year high, and the domestic and European port inventories were also high [5]. - **Double - offset Paper Market** - The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed month - on - month. The social demand was still weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [31]. - **Cotton Market** - In 2026, Xinjiang will adjust the cotton - planting area, adhering to the principles of "large - scale stability, small - scale adjustment, optimized layout, and improved quality". In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of January 10, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton was 3783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605 closed at 9779, up 149 or 1.55% [33]. - Red date 2605 closed at 9060, down 100 or 1.09% [33]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5253, down 32 or 0.61% [33]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5492, up 2 or 0.04% [33]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14760, up 135 or 0.92% [33]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. - The spot price of red dates was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. - The spot price of sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan/ton. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 880 yuan/ton. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The spot price of cotton was 15783 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 1072 yuan/ton [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread was 1229, with a month - on - month increase of 80 and a year - on - year increase of 1645, expected to be sideways - to - bullish, and the recommended strategy was to buy on dips [61]. - Red date 9 - 1 spread was 310, with a month - on - month increase of 205 and a year - on - year decrease of 385, expected to be range - bound, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread was - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 134, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 155, a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 10, expected to be sideways - to - bearish, and the recommended strategy was to sell on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The number of red date warehouse receipts was 2981, a month - on - month increase of 161 and a year - on - year decrease of 520. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 9499, a month - on - month increase of 560 and a year - on - year decrease of 6048. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 149134, a month - on - month increase of 6771 and a year - on - year decrease of 187722. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8410, a month - on - month increase of 642 and a year - on - year increase of 2214 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only related figure references.