Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - The export sector is facing marginal decline, with August exports growing by 4.4%, down 2.7 percentage points from July, influenced by high base effects and previous "export rush" effects [9][16] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5%, showing a marginal decline of 1.1 percentage points, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0% and manufacturing investment by 5.1% [11][12] - Social retail sales from January to August grew by 4.6%, with August showing a monthly growth of 3.4%, indicating a decline in consumer confidence and spending [14][16] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction within the year, indicating a trend towards increased overseas liquidity [18][23] - Domestic liquidity remains balanced and loose, with the average DR007 rate declining by approximately 14 basis points compared to the second quarter [21][23] - The overall macro liquidity in China is expected to remain ample, despite potential short-term constraints on new policy measures [17][23] Group 3: Capital Market Liquidity - A-share market liquidity is expected to continue increasing, driven by the inflow of medium to long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies and public funds [51] - The proportion of ordinary equity funds outperforming their benchmark indices has risen to 61%, indicating improved performance and attractiveness of equity investments [31] - Financing balances have increased to 2.39 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 559.9 billion yuan, although growth rates may slow down in the future [38][51] Group 4: Market Strategy - The A-share market has shown structural characteristics, with technology sectors leading the recovery and valuation adjustments [53][59] - The focus for future investments will be on the flow of incremental funds, particularly in sectors with structural performance highlights, such as technology [59][60] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and potential year-end policies are expected to boost market risk appetite and lead to upward index movements [59][60]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The focus is on the **AI industry** and its related sectors, particularly the **TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Timing for Investment in Technology Sector**: On June 8, the technology sector was deemed ready for investment based on analysis of congestion, rolling yield differences, trading volume ratios, and calendar effects, with a specific recommendation to focus on the upstream computing power sector, which has been validated subsequently [4][1][2]. 2. **Trends in AI Market**: The AI market is currently experiencing three major trends: movement from upstream to downstream, diversification within the sector, and the transition from AI to AI-enhanced applications [3][1]. 3. **Internal Differentiation in AI**: There are two main differentiations within AI: between upstream and downstream sectors, and between North American and domestic computing power, primarily driven by performance [5][1]. 4. **Early Stage of AI Market Expansion**: The AI market is still in its early expansion phase, suggesting a strategic focus on the diffusion of domestic computing power into upstream semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as downstream applications in sectors like internet, gaming, and consumer electronics [6][1]. 5. **AI Investment Framework**: The AI investment framework includes key indicators such as timing indicators, calendar effects, internal rotation factors, sector comparisons, and historical references from the 2013-2015 internet boom [7][1]. 6. **Trading Volume Analysis**: Adjusted trading volume ratios show that in 2023, the ratio reached approximately 50%, compared to a maximum of 40% in 2019, indicating a more accurate market analysis [7][1]. 7. **AI Rotation Intensity Indicator**: This indicator tracks the performance of 50 major news directions in the AI industry, showing a significant inverse relationship with the AI index, suggesting that when internal rotation converges, the sector typically experiences an uptrend [9][1]. 8. **Calendar Effects in TMT Sector**: The TMT sector exhibits performance-related calendar effects, with high win-rate periods in February-March, May-June, and October-November, influenced by risk appetite, earnings releases, and consumption peaks [2][10][11]. 9. **Factors Influencing AI Sector Rotation**: The AI sector is divided into three main chains: upstream computing power, midstream algorithm technology, and downstream applications. The North American computing power chain has consistently outperformed the domestic chain since May 2025 [12][1]. 10. **Historical Insights from 2013-2015**: The historical performance of the TMT sector from 2013 to 2015 provides insights into current market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of earnings in driving stock performance [19][20]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Potential for Downstream Sectors**: There is significant potential for growth in downstream sectors such as cybersecurity, operating systems, and cloud computing, which are currently underrepresented in institutional portfolios [15][1]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Trading Volume**: Concerns about high trading volume ratios do not necessarily indicate an end to the market rally, as historical trends show that significant market shifts can occur despite high trading volumes [17][1][18]. 3. **AI's Long-Term Impact**: The transition from AI to AI-enhanced applications is expected to mirror past trends seen in the internet sector, with a broader impact across traditional industries [16][1]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Software Applications**: Areas such as SaaS, online education, and digital marketing are highlighted as having substantial potential for performance improvement and investment opportunities [15][1].

Group 1 - The electric equipment (battery) industry has seen an increasing attraction from market funds, competing with the machinery industry (robots) for capital in the TMT sector for three consecutive weeks [1] - The electric equipment industry has shown active turnover rates, indicating a significant rise in investor interest in this sector [1] - The trend reflects a shift in market focus from traditional TMT sectors to emerging industries like electric equipment [1] Group 2 - The Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) tracks the Environmental 50 Index (930614), which selects the top 50 listed companies in China related to clean energy, pollution control, and energy-saving technologies [1] - This index has notable green economic characteristics and high industry concentration, effectively reflecting the development trends of the environmental industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Environmental Industry 50 ETF Connect A (012503) and Connect C (012504) [1]

Group 1 - Alibaba's stock surged over 7% on September 24, reaching its highest level since October 2021, driven by CEO Wu Yongming's announcement regarding significant investments in AI and cloud computing [1] - Alibaba Cloud's energy consumption is projected to increase tenfold by 2032, indicating a substantial rise in computational power investment [1] - The launch of Qwen3-Max, Alibaba's largest and most capable AI model, has positioned it ahead of competitors like GPT-5-Chat in various benchmarks [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong internet sector is expected to rebound after a period of negative sentiment, with reasonable valuations and high growth potential in AI technology [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) rose by 2.84%, with significant gains in key stocks such as ASMPT and Hua Hong Semiconductor [2] - Major AI companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi account for nearly 45% of the ETF's weight, highlighting the concentration of technology leaders in the market [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 518 million yuan over the past week, marking the highest growth among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's latest share count reached 3.885 billion, a record high since its inception, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Continuous net inflows into the ETF over the past 11 days totaled 693 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 325 million yuan [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF provides exposure to leading technology companies, capitalizing on the opportunities presented by the AI revolution [4]

Group 1 - The core concept of TMT is the combination of Technology, Media, and Telecom, representing a significant sector in the capital market often leading in bull markets and viewed as a growth investment opportunity [2][7][10]. - TMT encompasses a wide range of companies related to information technology, making it a popular investment area [3][6][7]. Group 2 - To quickly find TMT sector ETFs, users can utilize the Go-Goal App or the ETF search mini-program by selecting the TMT category in the ETF screening feature [3][10][12]. - The ETF screening function allows investors to filter through various categories, including asset class, major sectors, style characteristics, trading tags, management methods, investment regions, index types, and operational nature, facilitating a more targeted search for specific ETFs [4][10][15].

Group 1 - The current technology bull market has been ongoing for a period, with leading stocks continuously reaching new highs, raising questions about its sustainability and potential for further growth [1] - Historical references from previous technology bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics [1] Group 2 - In previous bull markets, the maximum gains for the ChiNext Index were 589.73% and 201.81%, while the CSI Technology 100 Index saw maximum gains of 457.03% and 156.04%. As of September 18, 2024, the current maximum gains for these indices are 113.67% and 110.35% respectively, indicating potential for further increases [2] - In the "Internet Bull" market, 31 industry indices saw maximum gains exceeding 100%, with the computer index soaring nearly 8 times. In the "Track Bull" market, 19 industry indices also exceeded 100%, with the power equipment industry index increasing over 3 times. Currently, only 6 industries have doubled, with the communication index rising over 180% [2] Group 3 - The duration of the current bull market has been approximately 1.5 years since the low point in 2024, while previous bull markets lasted around 3 years [3] Group 4 - Trading congestion is at historical highs, with the TMT sector's cumulative trading volume reaching nearly 95 trillion yuan since 2025, a nearly 20% increase from 2024 [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume accounted for over 46% of A-shares at one point this year, surpassing previous bull market peaks [4] - The weighted turnover rate for the TMT sector reached nearly 5.8%, exceeding previous bull market highs, indicating a high concentration of trading activity [4] Group 5 - Despite high trading volumes, much of it is driven by quantitative high-frequency trading, and the margin financing balance has exceeded the peak in 2015, but its market value ratio is still 50% lower than that year [5] - The sentiment indicator for A-share retail investors shows that while sentiment has increased, it has not reached the exuberant levels seen in mid-2015 or late 2020 [5] Group 6 - The TMT sector's high valuations are a concern, with the computer industry index's rolling P/E ratio exceeding 93 times, electronics over 70 times, media over 49 times, and communications over 47 times as of September 19, 2025 [6] - However, these P/E ratios are not at historical highs, with the computer, electronics, and communications sectors around the 50th percentile historically [7] Group 7 - The TMT sector's total market capitalization has surpassed 23 trillion yuan, accounting for over 22% of the total A-share market, marking a historical high [7] - The number of TMT stocks with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan has reached 34, the highest on record [7] Group 8 - The disparity between the performance of the real economy and financial markets is a global phenomenon, with the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and capital markets in China and the U.S. at a five-year low [8] - The current technology bull market is characterized by high-quality fundamentals and performance-driven characteristics, particularly in the AI computing industry, with companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing explosive growth in revenue and net profit [8] Group 9 - Institutional allocation in the TMT sector remains below historical peak levels, with public funds holding over 1.6 trillion yuan in TMT stocks, indicating potential for further investment [9] - The average holding ratio of public funds in the TMT sector is currently 5.73%, about 70% of the peak level during the last technology bull market, suggesting room for increased allocations [9]

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in the fourth quarter, with increased volatility, following a strong performance in the third quarter led by technology stocks [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a structural recovery in earnings and continued credit repair, supported by a resilient export environment and steady growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][4][19] - Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a balanced style favoring both large and small-cap stocks [4][5] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a bull market with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading gains, driven by liquidity easing and improved risk appetite [10][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a low-level recovery in earnings, with potential inflows from foreign investment and new funds, although IPOs and sell-offs may increase [4][5] - The overall market valuation is currently neutral to high, with supportive policies likely to sustain risk appetite [4] Industry Allocation - Technology remains the main focus for investment in the fourth quarter, with significant opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, military industry, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [5][19] - The market style is expected to be balanced, with large-cap and small-cap stocks performing well during periods of structural recovery in earnings and credit [5][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main line remains in the technology sector, with the turnover rate increasing rapidly and the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds being relatively strong. The TMT sector has been continuously catalyzed, and technology may still be the main line during the non - earnings disclosure period. The high - parity convertible bonds are more favored by the market, and the premium rate of 130 - 150 parity convertible bonds increased by 0.24pct last week [6][10]. - Attention should be paid to the calendar effect around the National Day. Due to the long National Day holiday, pre - holiday risk aversion leads to financing net selling and trading slowdown. After the holiday, the index is more likely to recover, and different industries may have different performances. The probability of an increase in margin trading balances in November is 80%. Industries such as communication, electronics, and computers have a relatively high probability of rising after the National Day [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Positive Stock and Valuation Adjustment, Main Line in the Technology Sector - Last week, the equity market fluctuated and corrected, and the convertible bond market was still in a weak range. The 100 - yuan fitted premium rate decreased by 1.66pct month - on - month. Although the trading volume recovered compared with early September, the convertible bond index's weekly trading volume was 40.9009 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 6.42%. The weak performance of micro - cap stocks dragged down the underlying stocks of convertible bonds, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index corrected more significantly [6][9]. 3.2. Pay Attention to the Calendar Effect around the National Day - Pre - holiday capital outflows may be replenished in October. From 2015 - 2024, margin trading balances at the beginning of October mostly decreased compared with those at the beginning of September, and the probability of an increase in margin trading balances in November was 80%. - After the holiday, the index is more likely to recover. From 2015 - 2024, the probability of the Wande All - A Index correcting before the National Day was 60%, and the probability of recovery after the holiday was 70%. Industries with a high probability of rising include communication, electronics, and computers [2]. 3.3. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Corrected Weekly, and Valuation Compressed 3.3.1. Weekly Market Quotes - Last week, major stock indices showed different performances, and the convertible bond market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.98%, the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.21%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.55%. There are 438 issued and unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 604.505 billion yuan [28]. - In the equity market, most industries were weak. In the convertible bond market, home appliances, communication, and other sectors had the highest increases, while non - bank finance, building decoration, and other sectors had the highest declines [30]. 3.3.2. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 129.22 yuan, a decrease of 1.61% from the previous Friday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds increased by 3.72%, while that of debt - biased and balanced convertible bonds decreased. The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate decreased by 1.66pct. High - rated and large - scale convertible bonds had a relatively large increase in premium rates, with AAA - rated bonds increasing by 2.44pct and bonds over 5 billion yuan increasing by 2.92pct [36]. 3.4. Terms and Supply 3.4.1. Terms - As of September 19, 4 convertible bonds, including Lushan, Keda, Jiuzhouzhuan 2, and Sanyang Convertible Bonds, announced early redemption; no convertible bonds announced non - early redemption; Jingxing and Fuli Convertible Bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions. - As of September 19, Huitong and Zhengchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions; Jiayuan Convertible Bond announced the downward revision result; 5 convertible bonds announced no downward revision; Kangyi, Jinggong, and other convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions [3][57]. 3.4.2. Primary Market - Last week, Yingliu Convertible Bond was issued with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan, and there were no convertible bonds to be listed or issued. - Last week, Huaxiang Co., Ltd., Shangluo Electronics, and Huichuangda added board proposals, 4 companies passed the general meeting, 2 companies passed the CSRC review committee, and no new companies were approved by the CSRC. As of September 19, 3 listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals with a proposed issuance scale of 6.802 billion yuan, 7 companies passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 6.176 billion yuan, and the total scale of the 3 new board proposals was 2.958 billion yuan [4][60][70].

Group 1 - The upcoming week (September 22 to September 28) will see the release of key economic data in China, including the September LPR rates and the unlocking of nearly 60 billion yuan in market value from restricted stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1][12] - A total of 44 stocks will face the unlocking of restricted shares, amounting to 2.821 billion shares, with a total market value of 596.86 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 19 [1][3] - The top three stocks by unlocking market value are Hehe Information (10.835 billion yuan), Ziyan Food (7.126 billion yuan), and Wireless Media (5.521 billion yuan) [1][4] Group 2 - The "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" press conference will be held, featuring key financial leaders discussing achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take place, with potential increases in gasoline and diesel prices based on recent crude oil price trends [6] - The National Day cultural tourism consumption month will be launched, with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies to stimulate tourism during the holiday period [7] Group 3 - The 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held from September 23 to 25 in Xi'an, focusing on sustainable development and cooperation among Eurasian countries [8] - The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo will take place from September 25 to 29 in Hangzhou, showcasing advancements in digital trade [9] - The 2025 World New Energy Vehicle Conference will be held from September 27 to 29 in Haikou, discussing future transportation and sustainable development [10]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]