证 券 研 究 报 告 科技制造引领，寻找景气成长 ——北交所25年二季报总结 2025.09.02 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 2 ◼ 北证二季报盈利压力再现。截至25Q2，北证单季营收增速+4.9%、环比-0.4pct，单季归母净利润增速-16.6%、环比 -8.8pct，ROEttm达+6.0%、环比-0.1pct；拆分ROE来看，25Q2，北证资产周转率TTM达62.6%、环比+0.5pct， 北证销售净利率TTM达5.5%、环比-0.2pct。其中，盈利压力主要源于两方面，1）Q2海外扰动影响显现，我国对美 出口增速大幅下滑，25Q2，北证出口50%以上企业单季扣非净利润增速转负、达-4.4%，环比-21.0pct。2）供给压 力、北证固定资产增速达历史高位，25Q2，北证固定资产增速达+30.2%、环比+2.0pct，处于历史高位，对北证盈 利能力形成压力，25Q2北证毛利率TTM达22.4%、环比-0.3pct，下滑幅度高于其他板块。展望后续，固定资产增速 的拐点有望在下半年出现，关注北证供给优化后的盈利弹性，截至2 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 均上涨，涨幅分别为 1.63%、2.71%、3.24% 和 1.03%。 微盘股指标监控：当前轮动与择时模型均未发出平仓信号，表明从中期来看，系统性风险未明显聚集，但过去一周小 时级别预警信号有触发，若持有微盘股需要承担和容忍较前期更大的板块波动。对于持有微盘板块投资者可继续持有 微盘股风格，但推荐密切跟踪相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，中国公布 7 月的工业企业利润同比数据为-1.5%，降幅连续两个月收窄。上市公司利润情况回暖明显，为 市场的上行提供良好支撑。政策端，国务院印发的《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，文中首次提出"人工 智能+"6 大行动，以及明确了中国"人工智能+"行动的阶段性目标。到 2027 年，率先实现人工智能与 6 大重点领域 广泛深度融合，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超 70%。为人工智能在国内的发展节奏提供了政策支持。在人 工智能板块纲领性政策出台的刺激下，以创业板和科创板为代表的成长板块快速上涨，带动市场持续活跃。 海外方面，美国总统特朗普尝试因房贷欺诈指控 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced high volatility with increased trading volume, driven by policy support and mid-term performance catalysts, particularly in real estate, agriculture, and power equipment sectors [1] - The ChiNext index showed strong performance, with average daily trading volume rising to 2.98 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The market style favored growth sectors over cyclical, consumer, and financial sectors, with technology growth leading the gains [1] Group 2 - Jin Ying Fund suggests focusing on sectors with potential for future profit improvement, including technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals [2] - In the technology sector, AI is at a high emotional trading point, with both domestic and overseas developments being encouraged, particularly in AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [2] - The military industry may see rotation opportunities due to upcoming events like the September 3 military parade and the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 3 - As the market strengthens, non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are expected to see improvements in both valuation and performance [2] - With expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a dual easing of overseas monetary and fiscal policies by 2026, sectors benefiting from external demand, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, may present investment opportunities [2] - The focus on policy-driven industries like photovoltaics is anticipated to strengthen in the future, reflecting a shift away from internal competition [2]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while revenue growth for listed companies improved in Q2, profit growth declined, reflecting a macroeconomic trend of "exchanging price for volume" [1] - It is anticipated that prices will moderately recover in the second half of the year, supporting stable profit levels for listed companies [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - In the first half of the year, overseas revenue for listed companies significantly outperformed overall revenue, driven by China's continued export growth and the acceleration of Chinese enterprises going abroad due to tariff conditions [1] - The external demand is expected to remain resilient in the second half, with export-oriented and overseas enterprises likely to maintain a high level of prosperity [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Industry Performance - Capital expenditure in industries such as electric new energy, machinery, and chemicals continued to decline in the first half of the year, while the automotive sector saw a counter-cyclical rebound [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side adjustments in the future [1] Group 3: Wage Trends and Sector Performance - The average salary growth for listed companies slightly declined in the first half of the year, with industries such as military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and consumer services showing higher growth rates [1]

Group 1 - The revenue growth rate of listed companies improved in Q2, but profit growth rate declined, reflecting the macroeconomic characteristic of "exchanging price for volume" [1] - It is expected that prices will moderately rebound in the second half of the year, supporting stable profit levels for listed companies [1] - The overseas revenue of listed companies significantly outperformed overall revenue in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected exports and accelerated overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises due to tariff conditions [1] Group 2 - External demand is expected to remain resilient in the second half of the year, with export-oriented and overseas expansion companies likely to maintain high levels of prosperity [1] - Capital expenditure of listed companies continued to decline in the first half of the year, particularly in the electric, machinery, and chemical industries, while the automotive sector saw a counter-cyclical rebound [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side adjustments in the future [1] Group 3 - The average salary growth rate of listed companies slightly declined in the first half of the year, with industries such as military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and consumer services showing higher growth rates [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a steady expansion of profitability among listed companies in China's stock market, with nearly 60% of companies reporting revenue growth and over 75% achieving profitability in the first half of 2025 [1][2][6] - High-tech manufacturing has emerged as a key driver of growth, with significant profit increases in sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing (176.1% growth), aerospace equipment (40.9% growth), and biopharmaceuticals (36.3% growth) [2][4] - The financial sector has seen improved profitability due to increased market activity, with A-share brokers reporting a 30.8% rise in revenue and a 65.08% increase in net profit [3][4] Group 2 - The supply-side structural reforms have led to a notable reduction in losses across various industries, with traditional cyclical sectors like steel and agriculture showing substantial profit growth of 157.17% and 170.06%, respectively [4][5] - The "Two New" policies (large-scale equipment updates and trade-in subsidies) have stimulated consumer spending, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, contributing to over 30% profit growth for listed companies in these areas [5][6] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with institutions predicting a quarterly increase in profitability driven by policy support, seasonal consumption peaks, and accelerated industrial upgrades [6][7]

Core Insights - A-share listed companies achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of the year, with total revenue reaching 34.99 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, and net profit reaching 2.99 trillion yuan, up 2.45% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - Over 77% of listed companies reported profits, with nearly 54% showing positive net profit growth, including 661 companies with net profit growth exceeding 100% [2] - The consumer and technology sectors showed strong performance, with significant revenue and profit growth in industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, as well as computer and electronics [4] - The electronic industry led revenue growth with a 19.10% increase, followed by the computer industry at 11.40% [5] Major Companies - 56 A-share companies reported revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 3 companies surpassing 1 trillion yuan in revenue. The top three companies by revenue were China Petroleum, China Sinopec, and China State Construction, each exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [7] - BYD entered the top 10 revenue list with over 370 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 23.30% growth, making it the only automotive company in the top rankings [8] High Growth Companies - Seven companies achieved over tenfold revenue growth, with the top three being from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, with Zhixiang Jintai-U and Haichuang Pharmaceutical-U showing remarkable growth rates [10] - The fastest net profit growth was seen in Wancheng Group, with over 500 times growth, although its net profit was below 500 million yuan [14] Financial Sector Performance - Among the top 10 companies by net profit, seven were from the financial sector, with the four major banks each reporting over 110 billion yuan in net profit. However, three of the banks experienced negative net profit growth [12] Industry Challenges - The real estate and power equipment sectors faced significant challenges, with 1,246 A-share companies reporting losses, including 33 companies with losses exceeding 1 billion yuan. Vanke A reported the highest loss of over 11 billion yuan due to declining project settlements and increased asset impairment provisions [16]

Core Insights - A-share listed companies in China achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of the year, with total revenue reaching 34.99 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, and net profit amounting to 2.99 trillion yuan, up by 2.45% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The consumer and technology sectors showed strong performance, with industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, computer, and electronics leading in revenue and net profit growth [2] - The highest net profit growth was seen in the comprehensive industry, with an increase exceeding 800%, followed by agriculture and steel, which both saw net profit growth rates of 170.06% and 157.17% respectively [2] - The electronics industry led in revenue growth with a rate of 19.10%, followed by the computer industry at 11.40% [2] Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 56 A-share companies reported revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 6 companies surpassing 500 billion yuan and 3 companies exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4] - The top three companies by revenue were China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and China State Construction, with revenues of over 1.4 trillion yuan each [5] - In terms of revenue growth, seven companies achieved over 10 times growth, with the top three being from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [7] Group 3: Profitability Insights - Among the 4178 A-share companies that reported profits, 48 companies had net profits exceeding 100 billion yuan, and 9 companies surpassed 500 billion yuan [9] - The top ten companies by net profit were predominantly from the financial sector, with the four major banks reporting net profits exceeding 110 billion yuan each [9] - Notably, Agricultural Bank of China was the only major bank to report positive net profit growth, while the others experienced declines [9] Group 4: Losses and Challenges - A total of 1246 A-share companies reported losses, with 33 companies losing over 1 billion yuan [15] - The top ten companies with the highest losses were mainly from the real estate and power equipment sectors, with Vanke A reporting a loss exceeding 11 billion yuan [15][16] - The losses were attributed to declining project settlement scales and low gross margins in the real estate sector, although there are signs of market stabilization [15]

Group 1: Economic Transition - The Chinese economy is shifting from a resource-driven growth model to an innovation-driven one, reflecting a structural change in the economy [1] - The integration of new and traditional economies is forming a more robust growth structure [1] Group 2: AI Industry Performance - The AI sector has become a strong market driver, with significant performance growth rooted in actual earnings rather than mere expectations [2] - The computer, electronics, and communication industries reported substantial net profit increases, with respective growth rates of 40.54%, 27.57%, and 7.81% [2] - AI chip leader Cambricon Technologies saw a revenue surge of 4347.82% year-on-year, reaching 2.881 billion yuan, and turned a profit of 1.038 billion yuan after a loss in the previous year [2] Group 3: Traditional Industry Recovery - The "anti-involution" policy has revitalized traditional industries, leading to profit recovery across various sectors [4] - The steel and agriculture sectors reported net profits of 13.137 billion yuan and 27.411 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 157.17% and 166.72% respectively [4] - Shandong Steel achieved a revenue of 36.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.60%, and turned a profit of 12.5258 million yuan [4] Group 4: Market Signals and Future Outlook - Companies are providing positive signals for future performance, with medical device company Mindray Medical projecting revenue growth in Q3 2025 [7] - Mindray anticipates overall revenue growth and improved performance in both domestic and international markets [7] - Lixun Precision is expected to report a net profit of 10.89 billion to 11.344 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% to 25% [8]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-29 通信行业爆发，股指回升 市场分析 各领域推动高质量发展。国内方面，《中共中央国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》对外公布，意见提出，到 2030年，现代化人民城市建设取得重要进展，适应城市高质量发展的政策制度不断完善，新旧动能加快转换，人 居品质明显提升，绿色转型深入推进，安全基础有力夯实，文化魅力充分彰显，治理水平大幅提高；到2035年， 现代化人民城市基本建成。海外方面，美国二季度实际GDP年化修正值环比增3.3%，增幅高于预期值3.1%和初值 3%。美国上周初请失业金人数22.9万人，预期23万人，前值从23.5万人修正为23.4万人。 沪指现V型反弹。现货市场，A股三大指数探底回升，沪指涨1.14%收于3843.6点，创业板指涨3.82%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，通信、电子、国防军工、计算机行业涨幅居前，煤炭、农林牧渔、纺织服饰行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额为3万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，标普500指数涨0.32%报6501.86点，续创历 史新高。 IM贴水。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差再度回落，近月合约均为贴水。成交持仓方面，股指 ...