Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751.SZ) is primarily engaged in non-ferrous metallurgy, focusing on the production of zinc, copper, and lead, along with by-products such as sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium, with no ownership of mining assets [1] Company Overview - The company operates as a non-ferrous metallurgy enterprise [1] - Main products include zinc, copper, and lead [1] - By-products consist of sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium [1] - Currently, the company does not own any mining assets [1]

Group 1 - The company is primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal smelting, with main products including zinc, copper, and lead, and by-products such as sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium [2] - The company does not own any mining operations [2] - The company has plans for future developments, although specific details were not provided in the response [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Stock Index**: With important meetings approaching, market policy expectations are rising. Coupled with the Fed still having room to cut interest rates this year, it will support the market. However, the KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds have declined. Overseas credit risks have led to a decline in risk appetite, and global bonds have temporarily improved. It is advisable to take partial profit during the risk - impact window. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of the month will be the key factor for future market risk appetite. If there is significant volatility in the next two weeks, appropriate band operations can be carried out according to positions. The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the weekly gains of all A - share broad - based indexes were negative, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes having the largest declines. Coal and banks performed well [10]. - **Core View**: High - level Sino - US exchanges and the upcoming important domestic meetings, along with the release of macro - economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, will support the market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.74%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [11]. - **Core View**: Yields of interest - rate and credit bonds declined. Overseas credit risks affected the market, but the panic may be excessive. It is advisable to take partial profit, and the Sino - US negotiation is a key factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment indexes slightly dragged it down. The improvement in domestic and foreign demand may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking, and the downstream's more active raw material procurement after the upstream price increase [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was + 0.1%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month was flat. The improvement in August's PPI was due to the base effect and the "anti - involution" policy. The year - on - year CPI was still negative, the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded, gold jewelry and services were the main support for the year - on - year CPI, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed [21]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two - year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance was not that strong [22][23]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits quickly rebounded to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise revenue in August was 1.9%, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The improvement in profit was contributed by quantity, price, and profit margin, with the profit - margin improvement being the most obvious, possibly related to investment income recognition [27]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined, mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [30]. - At the end of August, the nominal year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined to 2.3%, and the real inventory year - on - year growth rate declined to 5.4%. The real inventory depletion was faster under the influence of PPI convergence, mainly due to downstream advance procurement. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged at 20.5 days, and the accounts - receivable turnover days increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, indicating high business pressure [33]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the downstream production slowdown was obvious. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index declined to 5.6%. Among the mid - level industries, the year - on - year growth rate of industries such as computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and metal products declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 0.4% for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [36]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined to - 6.3%, and that of private investment declined to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate investment all declined. The estimated year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment declined to - 1.3%, that of new and old - caliber infrastructure investment declined to - 5.9% and - 6.4% respectively, and that of real - estate investment declined to - 19.5% [39]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales declined to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales declined to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The national subsidy funds in the third quarter were 69 billion yuan, slightly lower than the 81 billion yuan per quarter in the first half of the year. The year - on - year performance of the three major national subsidy categories weakened significantly compared with June, and the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption declined to - 0.1%. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [42]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.7%, remained flat at 5.9% after excluding government bonds, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber declined to 6.4%. The year - on - year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of long - term household loans turned positive, but that of long - term corporate loans still decreased. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily observations and analyses of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, different commodities show diverse trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy influences. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.07% to 1029 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.21% to 281.7 dollars/short ton. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure to decline [16]. - **Important Information**: In September 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, exceeding market expectations [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market is under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment and increasing supply pressure, with a downward - biased outlook [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points for the 05 contract, do a M11 - 1 long spread, and sell call options at high points [17]. Sugar - **Market Condition**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both declined. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market [18]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and Pakistan plans to import sugar. Typhoons have affected sugar cane in some areas of China [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global sugar production is increasing, and the price of raw sugar is weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by the external market [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, and wait and see for spreads [20]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices showed small changes. The overall oil market is expected to fluctuate [22]. - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in October, and the US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected [22][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The palm oil market lacks substantial positive factors, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets have different supply - demand situations. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, do an OI 1 - 5 long spread without chasing high prices, and wait and see for options [26]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Condition**: CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn prices are weak, but the 01 contract has rebounded [29]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of corn in northern ports and Guangdong ports has changed, and the purchase price in northern ports is relatively weak [30][31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn is expected to be weak in the short term, and the domestic corn price is under pressure, but the 01 contract has limited downward space [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 12 - contract corn, and gradually build long positions for the 01, 05, and 07 contracts. Wait and see for spreads and options [31]. Live Pigs - **Market Condition**: Pig prices showed a rebound, but the supply pressure remains [32]. - **Important Information**: Pig prices in different regions have changed, and the prices of piglets and sows have declined [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs is still high, and the pig price is under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [34]. Peanuts - **Market Condition**: The price of peanuts is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [35]. - **Important Information**: The price of peanut products is stable, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil has changed [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new - season peanuts are affected by rainfall, and the market is stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, wait and see for spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [37][38]. Eggs - **Market Condition**: Egg prices have stabilized, but the demand has not changed much [38]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of laying hens is high, and the sales volume of eggs has decreased [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is general. The egg price is expected to be weak [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions, wait and see for spreads and options [42][44]. Apples - **Market Condition**: The apple price is stable with a slight increase [44]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased, and the export and import volumes have changed. The price in different regions is stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The excellent - fruit rate is low, and the cost of making futures warrants is high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short term due to the expected low excellent - fruit rate, wait and see for spreads and options [47]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Condition**: ICE US cotton rose, and domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [49]. - **Important Information**: Xinjiang cotton is in the picking and purchasing season, and the demand for cotton cloth is weak [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic cotton output is high, and the demand is general. The cotton price is expected to be under pressure [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and domestic cotton is expected to be slightly weak. Wait and see for spreads and options [50]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Condition**: The steel market is under pressure, but the price is at a low valuation [52]. - **Important Information**: The environmental protection policy for the steel industry is introduced, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have decreased [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The steel inventory is increasing, and the demand is declining. The steel price is under pressure, but there is some support at the bottom [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom, do a long spread on the volume - to - coil difference at low prices, and wait and see for options [53]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Condition**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating [54]. - **Important Information**: The price of Mongolian coking coal is high, and the cost of steel production has increased [54][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal supply is stable, and the demand is supported. The market is balanced, and long positions can be lightly built at low points [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate, go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [56]. Iron Ore - **Market Condition**: The iron ore price is declining, and the market sentiment is affected [57]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium term, do a reverse cash - and - carry spread, and use a circuit - breaker cumulative put option strategy [59]. Ferroalloys - **Market Condition**: Ferroalloys are fluctuating at the bottom [59]. - **Important Information**: The inquiry price of a large steel mill for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have changed [59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is under pressure, but the valuation and cost provide support. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at the bottom, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [60]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Condition**: Gold and silver prices are strong [62]. - **Important Information**: The US dollar index fell, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under the expectation of loose liquidity, precious metals are expected to remain strong [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for spreads, and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options and take profits at high points [63]. Copper - **Market Condition**: The copper price needs to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged [63]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the global refined copper supply is in surplus [65][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect the copper price. The price needs to consolidate in the short term [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, hold a long cross - market spread, wait and see for options [67]. Alumina - **Market Condition**: The alumina price is weakening [68]. - **Important Information**: Some alumina enterprises are facing production cuts due to factors such as ore shortages and strikes [70][71]. - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market is in surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell, wait and see for spreads and options [72]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Condition**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be stronger in the medium term [73]. - **Important Information**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of tariffs on the aluminum price is limited, and the consumption is resilient. The price is expected to strengthen in the medium term [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Condition**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is affected by short - term macro - emotions, and scrap aluminum prices may be relatively firm [77]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots has changed, and the number of cast aluminum alloy warrants has decreased [77][78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global aluminum supply - demand is not directly affected, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight. The price is expected to be supported [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: The zinc price is affected by multiple factors [81]. - **Important Information**: The domestic zinc inventory is increasing, and the global zinc supply is expected to be in surplus [81][82]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is not improving. The price is under pressure, and the external - strong - internal - weak pattern may continue [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, wait and see for spreads and options [83]. Lead - **Market Condition**: The lead price is at a high level and may fall [86]. - **Important Information**: The global lead supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic lead inventory has decreased [86][87]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead market has weak supply and demand, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. The price may fall [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell due to the expected increase in supply, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [88]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: The nickel price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation [89]. - **Important Information**: The global refined nickel supply is in surplus, and LME nickel inventory is increasing [91]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel market is in surplus, and the price is under pressure [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell a 2511 contract strangle, wait and see for spreads [92]. Stainless Steel - **Market Condition**: The stainless steel price is under pressure [93]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports, and the inventory in the Foshan market has changed [93]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of stainless steel is increasing, but the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [93][96]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate weakly, wait and see for spreads [94][96]. Other Metals Industrial Silicon - **Market Condition**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [97]. - **Important Information**: There is a project for silica gel desiccant and intermediate water glass [97]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is affected by rumors of polysilicon production cuts. The price is under short - term pressure but may be supported in the medium term [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction in the short term, wait and see for spreads and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Condition**: The polysilicon price is expected to be strong [98]. - **Important Information**: The production of polysilicon is increasing, and the demand for silicon wafers is weakening [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is negative for the short - term, but the bottom of the price is being consolidated. The price is expected to break through new highs in the long term [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, do a 2511, 2512 contract reverse spread, adjust the double - buy strategy, close long put positions, and hold long call options [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Condition**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Important Information**: The government has issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lithium carbonate is uncertain, and the demand provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long, wait and see for spreads, and sell a 2601 contract strangle [101]. Tin - **Market Condition**: The tin price is declining slightly [102]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the Fed may cut interest rates [105]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tin market has weak supply and demand, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is affected by the situation in Myanmar [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [105].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on various investment varieties, suggesting investors adjust their positions according to the market situation and the development of the trade war, and provides corresponding option strategies for different varieties [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stocks - **Hong Kong Stocks**: If the trade war is less severe than expected, reduce short - term positions in the Hang Seng Technology Index and wait for better entry points. If it worsens, adopt a barbell strategy of technology (AI/innovative drugs/autonomous control) + dividends and buy technology assets at the right time [3]. - **US Stocks**: Short - term fluctuations are inevitable, but the decline will be less than in April. Reduce short - term positions and wait for better opportunities to enter the US technology stock market [3]. Futures - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the intensification of the trade war, Treasury bonds may open higher on Monday, but the upward trend may not last. Maintain a view of bottom - side oscillating and bearish [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The market has TACO trading expectations, but A - shares are overvalued, especially technology stocks with bubbles, and there is a risk of liquidity. The key lies in the development of the trade war and the government's willingness and strength to maintain stability. Consider buying short - term out - of - the - money put options and November call options [3]. Commodities - **Copper**: Prices are under pressure. If the trade conflict worsens, there may be further decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, which will be transmitted to the smelting end. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options on the far - month [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be affected by short - term negative sentiment, but the long - term trend is bullish. Consider constructing a collar strategy by buying put options and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **European Routes**: The 2510 contract may decline by 2 - 5%, the 2512 contract by about 10%, and the 2602 contract has a risk of significant decline [5]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a 5 - 6% decline in price, and a 10% decline in the most pessimistic scenario. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for short - term speculation [5]. - **Chemicals**: The impact is mainly on ethane and propane. Consider bearish spreads and wait for the market to stabilize before selling options [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Beans and some domestic - priced fresh products are strong, while cotton is weak. Consider buying call options on beans [5]. - **Black Metals**: The direct impact of the trade war on the fundamentals is small, but the valuation may decline. The decline amplitude may be smaller than that of other sectors [5]. - **New Energy and Related Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may decline by 5%. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money put options for tail protection [6]. - **Nickel**: The price is under pressure and may fluctuate. Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short at high prices with a light position [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to decline by 4 - 5%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may decline by 5 - 6%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy more out - of - the - money call options to construct an inverse spread option [6].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 21.9 percentage points compared to July[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was approximately 5.82%, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, which is a major support for the substantial profit increase[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) in August decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, indicating marginal improvement in price pressure[6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The low base effect is a significant reason for the substantial growth in industrial profits in August, with the PPI tail effect improving from -1.4% to -0.7%[4] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises is expected to further decline in September, indicating a seasonal downturn despite the low base effect providing short-term support[4] - The "anti-involution" policy and the upcoming National Day holiday have positively impacted certain industries, such as coal mining and non-ferrous metallurgy, suggesting initial effectiveness of the policy[4] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not be as effective as anticipated, and international geopolitical changes could exceed expectations[14] - There may be measurement errors in calculating the profit margins of industrial enterprises, which could affect the accuracy of the data[14] - If terminal demand does not improve significantly, midstream processing and manufacturing enterprises may face profit pressures, while industries benefiting from external demand and "anti-involution" may see increased concentration and cost transmission capabilities[4]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - From January to August 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue improved slightly with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[3] - August 2025 saw a significant profit growth of 20.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - In August 2025, the cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.7 yuan, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the same month in 2024, marking the first decline since July 2024[4] - Profit margins improved, with the profit rate turning positive after previously contributing negatively, indicating a recovery in profitability[4] - The contribution of profit factors in August 2025 was +5.6 from industrial added value, -3.2 from PPI, and +17.7 from profit margin year-on-year[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Public utility profits increased, with their share of total profits rising to 11.4%, while upstream mining and midstream equipment sectors showed varied performance[5] - The cumulative profit of upstream sectors improved by 3.8 percentage points to -9.1% year-on-year, with significant recovery in black metallurgy and chemical fiber sectors[5] - In August 2025, the profit of "anti-involution" industries improved by 3.8 percentage points to -4.3%, while non-anti-involution industries improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.9%[6] Group 4: Inventory and Economic Outlook - In August 2025, nominal inventory decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, while actual inventory fell by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year[7] - The report anticipates increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4 2025, which may affect the upward slope of equity markets, but timely policy support is expected to mitigate this impact[7]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].