Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - **Main Driving Forces**: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - **Fundamental Changes**: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - **Glass Market Situation**: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's hawkish stance and the expected prolongation of the Middle - East situation have led to a recession trading sentiment in the market. This week, crude oil prices continued to rise while non - ferrous and precious metals declined. The conflict between the US and Iran may escalate, and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, keeping oil prices high. High energy prices will suppress economic vitality, and if the conflict persists, economic recession will be gradually priced in [15][22]. - This week, soda ash mainly showed a downward trend. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 1.1% to 818,000 tons, reaching a new high. On the demand side, market sentiment weakened, and downstream restocking intention decreased at new prices. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 78,000 tons. It is expected that soda ash will maintain a weak trend next week, with a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, an arbitrage strategy of waiting and seeing, and an option strategy of selling calls [15]. - Glass showed a weak trend this week. On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass decreased to 146,000 tons, approaching the supply - demand balance value predicted in the annual report. On the demand side, speculative demand improved, and spot prices followed suit. In terms of inventory, factory inventory decreased by 1.8% to 74.436 million heavy boxes. It is expected that glass prices will oscillate widely with a weakening direction, with a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, an arbitrage strategy of waiting and seeing, and an option strategy of selling calls [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, soda ash production was 818,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons (+1.1%), with both heavy and light soda increasing. The daily production of soda ash was above 113,000 - 119,000 tons, and the daily production of Boyuan decreased slightly to about 18,000 tons. The overall supply increased slightly, with Tianjin Alkali Works resuming operation after reducing load and Boyuan Yingen Phase I gradually starting rotational maintenance [8]. - According to the data from March 20, 2026, soda ash production was 818,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 165,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points [67]. - Multiple soda ash production enterprises had equipment maintenance or production reduction situations, such as Boyuan Yingen, Henan Junhua, Jiangsu Huachang, etc. [85] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 896,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.6%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 461,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 7.3%), and for light soda was 435,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 10.1%). The daily melting volume of float glass was 145,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable. This week, the futures price weakened, and the mid - stream shipments increased to about 55,000 tons. The downstream was waiting and seeing the current price, the mid - stream was shipping, and the upstream was processing pending orders [11]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory decreased by 78,000 tons to 1.854 million tons, with heavy soda inventory decreasing by 27,000 tons and light soda inventory decreasing by 51,000 tons. In terms of regions, the factory inventory in the northwest decreased by 50,000 tons to 771,000 tons, in the southwest decreased by 2,000 tons to 589,000 tons, and in the north decreased by 14,000 tons to 164,000 tons [14]. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream inventory increased slightly, with the social inventory increasing by 4% to 289,000 tons [14]. - Downstream: The downstream purchased on demand. According to the previous statistics of Longzhong, for the soda ash inventory of float glass, in 33% of the samples, the inventory in the factory was 19.92 days, an increase of 0.36 days, and the inventory in the factory and pending orders was 30.50 days, an increase of 1.24 days [14]. 3.1.4 Price - In the spot market, the prices of heavy soda in some regions decreased slightly, such as the northwest heavy soda (ex - factory) price decreasing by 20 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the prices of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts all decreased, with SA05 down 39 yuan/ton, SA09 down 35 yuan/ton, and SA01 down 27 yuan/ton [26]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - This week, one production line each in South China and Southwest China stopped production. The current daily production of the industry is 145,800 tons. According to the cost - calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 87.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19.57 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was - 22.24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.14 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was - 21.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14.28 yuan/ton. The cold - repair speed has accelerated, approaching the supply - demand balance value predicted in the annual report [18]. 3.2.2 Demand - On the demand side, the terminal acceptance was insufficient, and the overall shipment volume weakened slightly. This week, under the influence of external sentiment and cost pressure, some enterprises in each market were more enthusiastic about price increases, pushing up the center of spot transactions. However, as prices rose, traders and processors became more cautious in purchasing, mostly maintaining rigid - demand purchases. As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 million heavy boxes (-1.86%), and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The inventory days were 33.7 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to the previous period. As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.11 days, a week - on - week decrease of 3.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.6% [21]. 3.2.3 Price - In the spot market, the prices of some glass products changed slightly. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1,036 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhejiang Great Plate increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,270 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the prices of FG05, FG09, and FG01 contracts remained stable week - on - week [136].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass, the domestic float glass market prices fluctuated this week, with varying trading volumes across regions. Float glass manufacturers continued to reduce inventory, but the inventory remained high. Two production lines were shut down this week, but there are expectations of new production line ignition next month. With average demand and high inventory, industry players remain cautious. The short - term inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the futures price fluctuations increase. It is advisable to seek better entry opportunities for buy - hedging positions. The support for the 05 contract is between 1000 - 1020, and the resistance is between 1250 - 1300 [3][4]. - For soda ash, the domestic soda ash market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull. Some plants are scheduled for maintenance in the coming months. The supply has hit a new high, and the inventory pressure remains. The rising fossil energy prices may increase production and transportation costs, while the rising fertilizer prices contribute positively to the profits of joint - alkali enterprises. The supply may be affected by maintenance in the short term, but it is difficult to clear the inventory. Soda ash is under supply pressure and policy support, and it is difficult to have a unilateral trend in the short term. It is recommended that both supply and demand sides of soda ash seize hedging opportunities according to their production and sales risk exposures. The support for the 05 contract is between 1100 - 1150, and the resistance is between 1300 - 1350 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Industry Chain Spot Prices - The report presents multiple figures related to glass and soda ash spot prices, including glass spot prices of different specifications from various regions (such as 5mm and 6mm glass from different manufacturers) and soda ash spot prices (including general, heavy, and light soda ash prices). The data sources are mainly from institutions like Zhuochuang Information, Longzhong Information, and Flush [8][10][11]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Glass**: The total number of float glass production lines in the country is 264, with 204 in operation, and the daily melting capacity is 146,585 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons from last week. The industry capacity utilization rate is 79.42%. Two production lines were shut down this week. The market trading enthusiasm was high at the beginning of the week and then declined. Downstream processors' new orders were average, and they mainly maintained a rigid - demand procurement rhythm. The inventory is at a high level, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually declined [3]. - **Soda Ash**: This week, the soda ash production was 818,100 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous week, hitting a new weekly production high. As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons or 4.03% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons [5]. 3.3 Glass and Soda Ash Industry Chain Profit - The report shows figures related to the production gross profit of float glass using different fuels (coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas) on a weekly basis and the weekly enterprise profit of soda ash, with data sources mainly from Longzhong Information [8][28][31][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is waiting for the peak season's performance and is oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets are in a weak consolidation due to poor rigid demand. The silicon manganese shows a situation of inventory accumulation, while the silicon iron has obvious inventory reduction [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The main glass contract continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with an intraday high - opening and low - closing and a slight recovery at the end. Spot prices followed the decline of the futures, and transaction prices were relatively stable. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass continued to decline, and the glass factory inventory decreased from a high level [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern yesterday. Spot prices slightly decreased with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, and the factory inventory continued to decline [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The current situation of weak supply and demand in the glass market continues. Enterprise profits are shrinking, cold - repair production lines are increasing, and production is continuously declining. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, and traders and end - users mainly make rigid - demand purchases, resulting in overall weak demand. Although the inventory has decreased from a high level, prices are still under pressure due to the under - expected real estate data [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash production continues to increase, and supply pressure still exists. Float glass production is continuously decreasing, and the photovoltaic glass market has not improved, resulting in weak downstream demand. Enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream, but the total inventory still faces high - level pressure. However, affected by the Middle East situation, costs are affected by energy prices, and soda ash price fluctuations may intensify. Later, attention should be paid to cost support and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures oscillated yesterday. Currently, the pricing of East China steel mills is around 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton, and factories have a strong sentiment of holding prices. Manganese ore prices are firm, with the price of 6517 in the northern market at 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5950 - 6050 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The main silicon iron futures contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The overall supply - demand of the silicon iron market is stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is reported at 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: This week, the production of manganese silicon slightly decreased, the apparent demand slightly increased, and the enterprise inventory increased. Currently, the manganese ore shipment volume remains at a high level. As the profits in the production areas improve, the overall supply - demand of silicon manganese is relatively loose, and the price increase is still restricted. Later, continuous attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, inventory changes, and silicon manganese warehouse receipts [3] - Silicon Iron: This week, the production of silicon iron increased significantly, the apparent demand improved, and the inventory decreased. Since silicon iron enterprises maintain low - load production, the supply pressure of silicon iron is relatively controllable. Coupled with the resumption of production in the downstream to boost rigid demand, the fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are limited. Considering the relatively loose silicon iron production capacity, the price increase is still restricted. Continuous attention should be paid to silicon iron production, silicon iron inventory, and power price policies in the production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Oscillation [4] - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-3-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：远兴能源二期开工负荷提升，碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光 伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期最高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1205元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1217元/吨，基差为-12元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存185.38万吨，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：成本端提振，短期预计纯碱震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、下游浮法玻璃冷修较少，产量持稳。 2、美伊冲突提振市场多头情绪。 1、远兴能 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is in a weak and pressured situation with significant supply - side pressure, weak demand, and high inventory. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, the market still faces downward pressure in the long - term. Short - term fluctuations may increase, and the market needs real capacity clearance on the supply side to break the deadlock [8]. - The glass market has a situation where prices are caught between high inventory and potential production capacity release on the upside, and cold - repair expectations on the downside. The core contradiction is the inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the improvement of the supply - demand structure and the opening of the upward price channel depend on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited [9][10]. Summary by Directory I. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **March 19 Market Data**: The main soda ash futures SA605 continued to decline. The closing price was 1,217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a daily reduction of 18,903 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has significant pressure due to new capacity release and high operating rates, resulting in a loose supply. The demand side is weak, especially in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors. The inventory is at a historically high level and the de - stocking process is blocked. Geopolitical factors support the cost side, partially offsetting the downward pressure [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations may increase. If it can effectively stand above the 1,200 - yuan mark, there may be upward space. In the long - term, due to the weak supply - demand pattern, there is downward price pressure. The market needs capacity clearance on the supply side [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The glass price is in a situation where it is difficult to go up or down. High inventory and potential production capacity release suppress the price, while the cold - repair expectation of some production lines provides support. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has not had a substantial impact on the supply side, and inventory accumulation remains the core problem restricting the upward price movement [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Although the market is in the traditional off - season, the trading sentiment has improved. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the opening of the upward price channel depends on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data [10]. II. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening expectation of Fed rate cuts and the strong atmosphere of stagflation trading. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and there is still inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The fundamentals have limited highlights, and the upward driving force for the market is insufficient. However, due to intensified geopolitical risks, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more in line with crude oil, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, the liquidity of some spot varieties is expected to tighten, and there is still an upward expectation for hot metal production, so the cost side still has support. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [1] - Overall, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - end remains to be verified. Currently, there are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If geopolitical conflicts continue, price support will be strong; if they ease, prices may face a correction [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is difficult to price the fundamentals of iron ore due to continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is expected to oscillate. In the medium to long term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall pattern remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium term [1] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the recovery rhythm of short - process demand is slightly faster than that of supply, and the fundamentals support the price. Recently, the spot performance of finished products has been relatively good, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster, and the cost - side price of the spot has increased, so the spot support for coke is strong. The market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal due to high imports from Mongolia. It is less likely for the spot price to rise sharply. The current market price is more affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if they ease, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand relaxation state of the silicomanganese market is difficult to reverse, the upstream inventory remains high, there is resistance to cost downward transmission, and there is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the market. The current market valuation is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price is at risk of correction [2][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Although the market inventory pressure is limited and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption progress of manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to relaxation and suppressing the upward space of prices. The current market valuation of ferrosilicon is still much higher than the comprehensive cost, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the mid - and downstream are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory has peaked and declined, but there are few highlights. The cost side still has some support, but the current steel inventory is high, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious, so the upward driving force for prices is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal has recovered month - on - month, and port inventories have declined. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption continues to rise, and the spot price has increased slightly. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [9] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand have increased, and coke enterprises have slightly reduced their inventories. The market is expected to follow coking coal [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Downstream procurement is strong, and coal mines continue to reduce their inventories. The spot price is less likely to rise sharply. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if it eases, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [12] - **Glass**: Supply cuts continue, and the upstream has slightly reduced its inventory. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [13] - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance has affected production decline, and the supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long term [15] - **Silicomanganese**: The cost is operating firmly, and the market is under pressure above. The market is in a supply - demand relaxation state, and the futures price is at risk of correction [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is insufficient supply - demand driving force, and the market valuation is high. The supply - demand relationship may turn to relaxation, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [101] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 19, 2026, the daily decline was 0.47%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.58%, the increase in the past month was 3.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.32% [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the lingering stagflation risk, along with cautious expectations for the peak season, inventory pressure in the industrial chain, and limited bright spots in the fundamentals, result in insufficient upward drive for the market. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in coking coal and coke prices following crude oil, continuous disturbances in the iron ore supply, tightened liquidity expectations for some spot varieties, and the expected increase in hot metal production, there is still support at the cost end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate due to supply and geopolitical disturbances. In the long - term, the high inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be greater, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [1] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply, providing some support for prices. It is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound of finished products and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, with hot metal复产 possibly faster. The cost - end price has risen, and the spot support is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the actual pressure on the fundamentals remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot price is unlikely to rise significantly. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. It may be strong if the geopolitical conflict persists, and oscillate if it eases [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, with high upstream inventory and resistance in cost transmission. There is significant selling pressure on the futures market, and the high - level valuation above the cost line has a callback risk [2][15] - **Silicon Iron**: The market inventory pressure is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose and suppressing the upward price space. The current futures valuation is much higher than the comprehensive cost, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [2][5][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][5][14] 3.5 Steel - The inventory pressure remains, and the upward drive is limited. The spot trading volume is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, hot metal production is expected to rise, and the overall supply of five major steel products is expected to recover from a low level. The demand shows resilience but lacks bright spots. The inventory is moderately high, and it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. The price upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2557.35, down 0.31%. The steel industry chain index on March 18, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.08%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 4.31%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.80% [103][105]