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纯碱、玻璃日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:14
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情: 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯 ...
纯碱:往期阿拉善产能投产对比
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:16
专题报告 2026-01-06 纯碱:往期阿拉善产能投产对比 陈逸(联系人) 黑色研究员 从业资格号:F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 黑色研究员 从业资格号:F3030112 交易咨询号:Z0023202 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 报告要点: 2025 年底,阿拉善天然碱二期项目已顺利完成试车并进入投料阶段,这标志着 2026 年将成为 纯碱行业供给再次迎来显著扩张的关键一年。回顾 2023 年阿拉善天然碱一期项目投产时的市 场环境,我们得以通过对比历史行业格局与供需演变路径,分析新一轮产能释放可能带来的市 场影响。 黑色建材研究 | 纯碱 往期阿拉善产能投产对比 2023 年,阿拉善一期项目按规划应投产 4 条产线,合计产能 500 万吨。年内实际有 3 条产线顺利投 产,贡献产能 400 万吨。同时,另有 300 万吨联碱法产能投入运营,全年累计新增产能达 700 万吨, 使 2023 年成为纯碱产能快速扩张的关键年份。上半年,受新增产能释放预期与下游需求偏弱的双 重影响,纯碱价格承压下行,最大跌幅接近 50%。进入 ...
五矿期货黑色建材日报 2026-01-06-20260106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:15
黑色建材日报 2026-01-06 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 交易咨询号:Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3104 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨(-0.57%)。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 154.8351 万手,环比增加 43067 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3248 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 22 元/吨(-0.67%)。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 129.4526 万手,环比增加 ...
宏观金融类:文字早评2026-01-06-20260106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].
供需面过剩矛盾加剧 纯碱期价运行区间将继续下移
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-05 07:03
1月4日,本周纯碱整体产能利用率在79.96%,较上周减少1.69%;纯碱产量69.71万吨,跌幅2.07%。 1月5日,纯碱期货盘中低位震荡运行,截至发稿主力合约大幅下挫3.06%,报1172.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 1月5日,江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降,暂不报价;江苏井神化工纯碱装置恢复,价格下调,轻质报价出厂1270元/吨;河南中源化学纯碱装置 生产稳定,价格稳定,轻质出厂报价1130元/吨承兑,重碱暂不报价。 1月4日,本周中国纯碱企业出货量72.73万吨,环比减少5.87%,纯碱整体出货率104.33%。 机构观点 一德期货:纯碱方面,供需过剩矛盾加剧,重碱需求维持百万吨以上减量,轻碱需求略抵消重碱减量,但净出口高位增幅有限,整体需求已由 2021-2025年增加转为走平,而新供应增量达到200万吨以上,中性预期存量产能开工下降到80%,产量降低100万吨,库存仍累库格局,乐观情况 关注存量产能继续降负荷。物料成本1100-1150元/吨附近,现金流成本1250-1300元/吨,原盐和煤炭成本下行有限,盘面最高到现金流成本附近, 操作上近月合约全年维持1050-1250元/吨区间震荡,远月高 ...
《能源化工》日报-20260105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 01:15
交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 1月4日 | 12月31日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): F海 | 15250 | 15250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 | 15250 | -355 | 15605 | 4395.77% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | 14700 | -905 | 15605 | 1724.31% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 51.00 | 50.85 | 0.15 | 0.29% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.20 | 54.70 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 原料:市场主流价:海南 | 13100 | 13000 | 100 | 0.77% | 元/吨 | | 月间价差 | | | | | ...
黑色产业链日报-20251231
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 10:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]
市场情绪趋弱,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 02:50
黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱,钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱:交易情绪提振,玻碱盘面反弹 市场分析 玻璃方面:昨日玻璃期货震荡上行,盘中波动加剧,成交活跃。现货方面,下游以观望刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大,虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修,但是相较刚需下降速度,减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减,且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期,持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面:昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行,盘面成交活跃。现货方面,下游报价有所上调,期现成交惨淡,刚需采 购为主。 供需与逻辑:目前纯碱供需矛盾有所缓解,产量有所回落,库存持续下降。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产, 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期,仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润,避免再度陷入供需失衡局面,持续关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡偏弱 纯碱方面:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅:合金期货反弹,现货小幅调整 市场分析 硅锰方面,昨日硅锰期货反弹飘红。现货端:硅锰市场表现强势,期货开盘继续上行 ...
震荡运?为主,关注钢?复产与下游补库节奏
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 02:02
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-31 震荡运⾏为主,关注钢⼚复产与下游补 库节奏 国家发展改⾰委、财政部发布关于2026年实施⼤规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知,政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库, 基本⾯⽭盾有限,盘⾯震荡运⾏。铁矿⾼库存或将⾯临堆存费征收的 压⼒,盘⾯上涨乏⼒。焦煤交割博弈加剧,盘⾯波动剧烈。玻璃供给 扰动带动玻纯盘⾯价格反弹,但供需过剩压制上⽅空间。 1. 铁元素方面:铁水基本持稳,港口库存持续累积,钢厂少量补 库,上下游博弈较强,短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱,钢厂 库存偏高,补库放缓,废钢现货上涨乏力,华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨,预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面:焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象,且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期,随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启,焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧,四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳,盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随 着年关将近,冬储力度逐渐加大,且进入一月后蒙煤进口冲量行为将 有所改善,总体供应压力将得到缓解,焦煤基本面将延续边际改善, 期现价格仍有上涨动力。 3. 合金方面:内蒙 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251231
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 01:26
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 基本面方面,本周纯碱产量为 ...