聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | | | 品中 | 11月18日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | L2601收盘价 | 6785 | 6843 | -58.00 | -0.85% | | | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6852 | 6902 | -50.00 | -0.72% | | | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6392 | 6467 | -75.00 | -1.16% | | | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6497 | ୧୧୧୧ | -68.00 | -1.04% | | | | | L15价差 | -67 | - 20 | -8.00 | -13.56% | 元/吨 | | | | PP15价差 | -105 | -98 | -7.00 | -7.14% | | | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6360 | 6430 | -70.00 | -1.09% | ...

中化新网讯"技术进步是纯碱行业发展的引擎，创新是引领纯碱行业发展的第一动力。"11月13日，在江 苏无锡召开的2025年纯碱技术年会上，中国纯碱工业协会会长丁超然表示，面对供大于需、原材料波 动、市场竞争加剧等问题，纯碱行业需以技术创新为核心驱动力，研发推广专业化、绿色化的技术和设 备，主动适配行业升级需求。会上，多位专家聚焦纯碱行业新技术、新工艺、新设备、新理念进行成果 分享，探讨以技术创新驱动产业升级的最新解决方案。 "我们需要聚焦行业关键共性技术难题，加大研发投入，加速成果转化，共同推动纯碱产业向高端化、 智能化、绿色化方向迈进。"纯碱协会秘书长窦进良在大会上这样呼吁。 目前，纯碱行业通常采用流化床干燥联碱法制碱，这种方式作业周期短、能耗高、尾气量大且处理困 难。对此，成都天保节能环保工程有限公司总经理王青宗带来了以回转干铵炉替代流化床的解决方案， 降低了单位产品电耗和蒸汽消耗，减少了尾气处理量，热效率显著提升。 为解决企业纯碱装置碳化塔更新改造难题，山东海天生物化工有限公司开发了新型筛板碳化塔，该设备 抗腐蚀性强、容积利用率高、传质效率优、重量轻，能极大提升传质效率、加速碳酸化反应、提高生产 产能、优 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

首席点评： "小非农"有所改善，美股持续回落 美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农" ADP 周度就 业数据：截至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。国务院总理李强在上合组织会议上表示， 高额关税等经贸壁垒增多使国际经贸秩序受到严重冲击，呼吁各方拥抱自由贸易、减少壁垒。他强调上合组织应强化安全 合作机制，推动科技交流，反对人为阻碍科技发展，并倡议建立新能源等合作机制，扩大中国－上合组织在金融、科技等 领域的协作平台。国家统计局公布数据， 10 月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3% ， 25-29 岁劳 动力失业率为 7.2% ， 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8% 。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回调为主，传媒和计算机板块领涨，煤炭和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.95 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 17 日融资余额增加 76.21 亿元至 24823.20 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, while the glass market is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term if there is no new market expectation stimulus [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 17, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated with a slight upward trend. The closing price was 1,231 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with a daily reduction of 19,289 lots [7] - Fundamentally, enterprise production and sales are approaching balance, and inventory reduction is not obvious. Weekly soda ash production decreased 1.01% to 73.93 tons, still at a high level. The soda ash device is running stably, and individual overhauls have little overall impact. In the demand side, the shipment of Chinese soda ash enterprises from mid - to early November increased 1.57% to 74.62 tons. The production of float glass decreased 1.08% to 111.39 tons. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.73 tons, in the middle range of the past six months [8] - In the short - term, the disk price is affected by the increase in light soda ash price and the expected equipment overhaul in late November, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of oversupply may continue [8] Glass - Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of float glass remains high, and the supply is supported. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9] - Recently, the disk price has been oscillating weakly. In the medium - term, if there is no new market expectation, the downward trend of the disk is difficult to change [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国财政部：前10月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，支出增长2%，交易印花税收入增长88.1%。1-10月，全国 一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。中德高级别财金对话在京举行，达成多项成果共识，结束贸易紧张局 势。中德高级别财金对话中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与德方牵头人、德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔17日在北 京共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。美联储理事沃勒支持12月降息，副主席杰斐逊强调慎缓慢推进政策。下任美 联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒表示，支持在美联储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招 聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 重点品种：股指、玻璃纯碱、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指震荡回落，医药生物和银行板块领跌，计算机和国防军工板块领涨，市场 成交额1.93万亿元。资金方面，11月14日融资余额减少134.56亿元至24746.99亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降息、人民币升值，外部资金也 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.32% higher than the previous week at 1,226 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week. Supply has narrow fluctuations, and next week's output is expected to increase slightly to 740,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Demand from downstream industries is average, and they mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis. As of November 13, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous value. - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous value. - The main basis was - 56 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from the previous value [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 232 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 84.80%. The weekly output was 739,200 tons, including 410,900 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.54% [20][22][24]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **产销率**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [28]. - **下游需求**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75% [31]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1226元/吨，基差为-56元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划， ...