1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market was affected by the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Policies such as Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system have also had an impact. The liquidity market is expected to continue, but with a narrowing focus of funds, and there may be short - term fluctuations while having the potential for long - term upward movement [1]. - The bond market rebounded this week due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September and increased expectations of domestic monetary policy efforts. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On August 27, 2025, IH decreased by 1.70% to 2,920.2, IF decreased by 1.46% to 4,384.0, IC decreased by 1.14% to 6,837.8, and IM decreased by 1.73% to 7,287.2 [3]. - **Stock indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 1.73% to 2,918.4, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.49% to 4,386.1, the CSI 500 decreased by 1.46% to 6,862.6, and the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.87% to 7,336.5 [3]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On August 27, 2025, TS increased by 0.01% to 102.41, TF increased by 0.03% to 105.59, T increased by 0.02% to 108.02, and TL increased by 0.11% to 117.40 [3]. 3.2 Market News - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IC, IM, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Charts display the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB and euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of TL2509 are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation" due to the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Although the bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom due to the overall loose market liquidity and the limited upside space of market interest rates, the short - term rebound space is also limited. This is because the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and is mainly structurally loose, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. Additionally, the rising risk appetite in the stock market has attracted funds away from bonds [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - TL2509 has a short - term and medium - term view of "oscillation", an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The previous day, each bond futures oscillated and rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations have turned to net liquidity withdrawal, indicating that the overall market liquidity is still relatively loose. Considering the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upside space of market interest rates is limited, leading to the bond futures rebounding after hitting the bottom. However, the short - term rebound space is limited because the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and is mainly structurally loose, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market attracts funds, suppressing the demand for bond purchases [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Pork, Bitumen (bullish on short - term rebound), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Combustion Fatigue [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, Short - fiber, Hemp, Urea (limited upside), PE (price oscillates weakly), Container Shipping to Europe [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, TV4E, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coal Coke, Cotton, Sugar, New - season Corn, New - season Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PVC, Spot Goods [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Fed Chairman boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation, which is beneficial to precious metals and copper prices in the short term [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, most varieties are affected by macro - sentiment and their own fundamentals, showing different trends such as oscillation and rebound [1]. - In the black metal sector, most varieties are in an oscillating state due to neutral valuation, unclear industrial drive, and warm macro - drive [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, different varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonal factors, and policy, showing different trends [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, supply - demand relationship, and macro - policy, with different investment ratings [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: May continue to run strongly due to abundant liquidity and good market sentiment [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold and Silver**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Copper**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Aluminum**: Oscillates as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rises, but domestic downstream demand is under pressure in the off - season [1] - **Alumina**: Consider far - month long - position layout opportunities as production and inventory increase, but bauxite shipments decline in the rainy season in Guinea [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: Rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment, but the upside space is limited due to large domestic fundamental pressure [1] - **Nickel**: Oscillates and rebounds following the macro - situation, with attention paid to supply and macro - changes. Long - term excess of primary nickel still suppresses prices [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates and rebounds in the short term, affected by the macro - situation. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills and short - term trading opportunities [1] - **Tin**: The tin price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, with short - term weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1] Energy and Chemicals - **TV4E**: Oscillates due to supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, large hedging pressure, and strong market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Oscillates with long - term production - capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillates due to frequent resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent restocking space after large short - term restocking by downstream [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Oscillate as the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates as the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward opportunities [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate, following the black - metal sector in the short term with long - term anti - involution [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Oscillate weakly as the reality is weak, and the market focuses on fundamentals [1] - **Coke and Coal Coke**: Oscillate weakly as the steel inventory accumulates faster than seasonally, and the market suppresses supply by lowering steel prices [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Have different price trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, production reduction, and policy [1] - **Cotton**: Increases in the short term, with the near - month squeeze - out logic dominant. Pay attention to the time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Runs strongly but with limited upside. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **New - season Corn and New - season Soybeans**: Oscillate at low levels or due to factors such as harvest pressure and import - cost support [1] - **Pulp**: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the 11 - contract is under pressure from old warehouse receipts [1] - **Logs**: Oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ as the valuation is reasonable [1] - **Pork**: Bullish as the near - month contract is weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: May rebound in the short term as the previous pessimistic expectation is corrected, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and there is a short - term rebound demand [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: Have different trends due to factors such as rainfall in domestic producing areas, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: Have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1] - **Short - fiber and Hemp**: Bearish due to factors such as increased factory maintenance and weakening market trading [1] - **Urea**: Oscillates with limited upside due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PP, and PVC**: Oscillate due to factors such as maintenance, orders, and macro - sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Runs strongly due to factors such as capacity reduction expectations, tariff extensions, and supply - demand changes [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate is expected to decline as the September supply exceeds the same - period level, and the high - price quotes are expected to converge [1]

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a mixed trend with the three major indices rising and falling. Over 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume on this day was 2.71 trillion yuan. The Fed's dovish stance led to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year, benefiting the A - share market. Shanghai's adjustment of housing policies boosted the real estate and banking sectors. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to be an important way to drive inflation back up. The liquidity - driven market will continue, but funds are concentrating on index components and technology stocks, with short - term volatility increasing and long - term upward potential [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across the board. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. Although there were no significant changes in the short - term capital and fundamental aspects, market risk appetite rebounded. The dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman increased expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US and domestic monetary policy easing, leading to a rebound in the bond market. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate at high levels [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract decreased by 0.71% to 2,970.8; the IF contract remained unchanged at 4,474.6; the IC contract increased by 0.10% to 6,916.4; the IM contract increased by 0.04% to 7,415.4 [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.67% to 2,969.8; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.37% to 4,452.6; the CSI 500 Index increased by 0.18% to 6,964.1; the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.02% to 7,476.5 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract decreased by 0.02% to 102.39; the TF contract increased by 0.02% to 105.56; the T contract increased by 0.04% to 108.00; the TL contract increased by 0.43% to 117.30 [3]. 3.2 Market News - On August 26, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to Trump's expected visit to China. China adheres to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win - win cooperation in handling Sino - US relations, hopes that the US will work together, and emphasizes the strategic leading role of head - of - state diplomacy in Sino - US relations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of the corresponding basis of these contracts [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of Treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the historical trends of the inter - delivery spreads of these Treasury bond futures, and the historical trends of cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [21][22][25][27]. 3.4 Member Introduction - The report introduces two members: Zhu Jintao, the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and Wang Dongying, an index analyst mainly responsible for stock index futures research [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors presenting diverse performances. In the stock index futures market, A - shares are booming, while the bond market has a certain degree of repair. The precious metals market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors. The shipping futures market is weak, and the non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural product markets also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [2][5][7] - For different sectors, corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on their fundamentals and market trends, such as buying put options in the stock index futures market, maintaining a wait - and - see attitude in the bond market, and taking different positions in other sectors according to their specific situations [4][6][12] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares opened higher and continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis of the main contracts all increased [2][3] - **News**: Shanghai optimized the housing provident fund policy, and there were important meetings between South Korea and Japan overseas [3][4] - **Funding**: On August 25, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of over 3 trillion. The central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy 09 out - of - the - money put options to protect long positions and sell 12 out - of - the - money put options to obtain time - value income [4] Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed sharply higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.78%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.27%, etc. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined significantly [5] - **Funding**: The central bank's MLF operation showed its intention to support the market. Although the stock market was hot in the short term, the overall liquidity was expected to be stable under the policy [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, pay attention to whether the key points are broken through, and observe whether the sentiment can continue to stabilize [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market News**: Trump's administration planned to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and there were meetings between the US and South Korea. The Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts was divided, and the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine was easing [7][8] - **Market Performance**: The US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals slightly declined. The international gold price closed at 3365.95 US dollars per ounce, down 0.17%, and the international silver price closed at 38.55 US dollars per ounce, down 0.69% [8] - **Outlook**: Gold may冲击 the previous high of 3450 US dollars, and it is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy. Silver prices are generally strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions above 38 US dollars [9][10] - **Funding**: Under the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, financial institutions in Europe and the US continued to increase their holdings of gold and silver through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: As of August 26, the spot quotations of major shipping companies showed a downward trend [11] - **Shipping Index**: As of August 25, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index both declined [11] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different situations [11] - **Logic**: The decline of the SCFIS European line may suppress market sentiment, and the downward trend of spot prices will put pressure on the futures market [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [12] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [13] - **Macro**: The Fed's dovish stance boosted the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, but there were still uncertainties about the subsequent interest - rate cut [13][16] - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly year - on - year [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand showed different trends, with the overall demand having certain resilience [15] - **Inventory**: The three - place copper inventory decreased [15] - **Logic**: The macro situation and fundamentals jointly affect copper prices. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78500 - 80500, with a short - term view of oscillation [16] Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price of alumina showed a north - south differentiation, with the northern region under pressure and the southern region relatively supported [16] - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity was expected to increase slightly in August [17] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [17] - **Logic**: The market is in a game between short - term supply disturbances and medium - term capacity relaxation. The price is expected to be in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan per ton [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 3300, with a view of wide - range oscillation and short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18] Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [18] - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [19] - **Demand**: The downstream was in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries increased [19] - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [20] - **Logic**: The market is facing supply - demand pressure, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan per ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20000 - 21000, and pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [21] - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was expected to remain stable [21] - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [21] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22] - **Logic**: The fundamentals showed marginal improvement, and the spot price was expected to be relatively stable. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan per ton [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it can be considered to participate in the arbitrage of long AD and short AL when the spread is above 500 [22] Zinc - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [23] - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply was in a loose cycle, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [23] - **Demand**: The spot premium was at a low level, and the operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at a seasonal low [24] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [24] - **Logic**: The supply - side is loose, and the demand - side is weak, but the decline of LME inventory provides support. The short - term zinc price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [25] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 22000 - 23000, with a short - term view of oscillation [25] Tin - **Spot**: On August 25, the price of 1 tin increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [25] - **Supply**: In July, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased, and the supply was difficult to improve in the short term [26] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of solder enterprises decreased, and the demand was expected to be weak. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased [27][28] - **Logic**: Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, the tin price rose. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar [28] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of wide - range oscillation [28] Nickel - **Spot**: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [29] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless - steel demand was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [29] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory and bonded - area inventory were relatively stable [30] - **Logic**: The macro - environment improved, and the cost had certain support. The price was expected to be adjusted within a range in the short term [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 118000 - 126000, with a short - term view of range oscillation [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of August 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [32] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was relatively stable, the price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [32][33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless - steel crude steel in August increased month - on - month [33] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts increased [33] - **Logic**: The cost provided support, but the demand was weak. The short - term market was expected to be oscillating within a range [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13400, with a short - term view of range oscillation [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of August 25, the spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the downstream mainly made purchases at low prices [35] - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in August was expected to increase. The supply was expected to contract [36] - **Demand**: The demand was relatively optimistic, and the demand in August was expected to increase [36] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [37] - **Logic**: The market was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate around 80,000 [38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of range oscillation [39] Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: Futures prices rose, and spot prices followed. The steel billet price increased by 40 to 3120 yuan, and the prices of other steel products also changed accordingly [39] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support was expected to weaken, and the steel profit declined this week [39] - **Supply**: The iron - element production increased year - on - year, and the steel production in August increased compared with July. There was a risk of inventory accumulation from August to September [39] - **Demand**: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, and the decline in demand in the off - season was not significant. The current overall apparent demand decreased [40] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, with the inventory of rebar increasing significantly [40] - **Viewpoint**: It is expected that the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil will decline, and the steel price will remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to try long positions [40] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of August 25, the spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [41] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contracts rose [41] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated [42] - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal production increased slightly, and the blast - furnace operating rate decreased slightly [42] - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased [42] - **Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy at low prices unilaterally and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures rebounded strongly, and the spot price was relatively stable [44][46] - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate increased, and the inventory of some coal mines increased [44][45] - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand was stable, but the demand was expected to decline in late August [45][46] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [45][46] - **View，point**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [46] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures rebounded strongly, and the seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented [47][48] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke increased [47] - **Supply**: The coking plant operating rate increased due to the improvement of profits [47][48] - **Demand**: The hot - metal production was at a high level, but it was expected to decline in August [48] - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48] - **Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [48] Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal decreased [50] - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the soybean policies of Brazil and Argentina, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [50][51] - **Market Outlook**: The cost provided strong support, and the long - term outlook was positive [49][52] Pig - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs was weakly oscillating [53] - **Market Data**: The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased [53][54] - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and it can be considered to lay out long positions in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [54][55] Corn - **Spot Price**: As of August 25, the spot prices of corn in different regions decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased, with the corn inventory increasing significantly [56] - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand of corn were loose, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating. In the medium term, the price was expected to move down towards the new - season cost [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Strategy - Short - term market做多动能 remains strong, liquidity is expected to stay loose, and capital is abundant. With rising market sentiment, incremental funds will support the market. Policy measures may boost confidence. The index has upward potential but may adjust through fluctuations [6]. - Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down and adjust. It may consolidate or rise gently rather than have a sharp correction [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy - The central bank's large - scale liquidity injection shows its intention to keep market liquidity reasonable. The divergence between short - and long - term interest rates may be due to the shift of funds from the bond market to the equity market. Track equity market trends, capital interest rate trends, and bond fund redemptions [8]. - Technically, the treasury bond futures remain in a bearish pattern with a downward trend and more potential downside [8]. - The strategy is to appropriately reduce the portfolio duration on dips [8]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Index Strategy - Last week, the A - share market continued to rise in volume and price, with most gains on Wednesday and Friday. All major indices rose, with the ChiNext, STAR Market, and the Beijing Stock Exchange leading. Trading volume increased, with daily average turnover of about... trillion yuan, up...% from the previous week. Core broad - based indices also had positive weekly performances [6]. - The short - term market has strong upward momentum, and the index has room to rise but may adjust through fluctuations [6]. - Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down and adjust, likely through consolidation or gentle rise [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Last week, the central bank net injected... billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. This week, capital interest rates rose, and treasury bond yields generally increased [8]. - The central bank's actions show its intention to maintain liquidity. The divergence in short - and long - term interest rates may be due to funds flowing from bonds to equities. Track relevant factors to judge the sustainability of the interest rate adjustment [8]. - Technically, the treasury bond futures are bearish with a downward trend [8]. - The strategy is to reduce portfolio duration on dips [8]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than expected and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In... month, CPI was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% month - on - month; PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. There were positive changes in prices, but CPI and PPI year - on - year remained weak [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in... month dropped to 5.7%, and the service production index growth rate fell to 5.8%. The decline was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automotive, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in... month turned negative to - 5.2%. The growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real estate investment declined. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical methods, medium - term factors like export expectations and policies, and long - term factors like real estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in... month fell to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales fell to 2.8%. The slowdown was mainly reflected in weak catering growth, slower sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25][26]. Social Financing - In... month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the stock of social financing increased 9.0% year - on - year, and M2 increased 8.8% year - on - year. Although credit was negative, social financing, M1, and M2 growth improved with fiscal support. The social financing growth rate may peak and decline in Q4. Policy may be adjusted according to the situation, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [29]. Imports and Exports - In... month, China's exports were 3217.8 billion US dollars, imports were 2235.4 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 982.4 billion US dollars. The performance was better than expected due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [32]. Weekly Focus - On... day at 09:00, China will announce the five - year and one - year loan prime rates (LPR). - On... day at 14:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. - On... day at 16:00, the eurozone will announce the preliminary manufacturing PMI for... month. - On... day at 21:45, the US will announce the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for... month. - The China Computing Power Conference will be held from... day to... day in Datong, Shanxi Province [34].

Report Overview - The report is a financial research on financial futures, including stock index futures and treasury bond futures, released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 22, 2025 [1][2] 1. Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 21, the four major A-share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3771.1 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.47% to 2595.47 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.09% to 1149.15 points. Market turnover was 2.4603 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.5%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.39%), and beauty care (+0.98%) led the gains, while machinery (-1.08%), power equipment (-0.98%), and composites (-0.73%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2169/164/3087 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -20.9 billion, -30.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 46.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -8.4 billion, -9.7 billion, +6.7 billion, and +11.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 99.94, 87.37, 14.27, and -2.02 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -9.57%, -9.05%, -2.31%, and 0.49% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 39%, 18%, 36%, and 50% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 21, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.426, down 0.13 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.639, down 1.32 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.728, down 0.99 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.135, down 1.96 bps [2] - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of -0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.019, and an IRR of 1.24%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.096, and an IRR of 1.22%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 250007.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.098, and an IRR of 0.16%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of -3 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.401, and an IRR of 0.58% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's net injection was 124.3 billion yuan through open market operations [2] 2. Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [2] Treasury Bond Futures - Given the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL in the medium - to - long term [2] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak. Based on the comparison of domestic medium - level data with the same period in the past five years, the sentiment of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, with negative scores indicating weakening sentiment [9][11][12]

Group 1: Index Movements - On August 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to close at 3766.21 points with a trading volume of 1017.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to close at 11926.74 points with a trading volume of 1390.734 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% with a trading volume of 517.521 billion yuan, opening at 7212.97, closing at 7305.46, with a high of 7305.46 and a low of 7166.99 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.09% with a trading volume of 409.671 billion yuan, opening at 6623.61, closing at 6728.07, with a high of 6728.07 and a low of 6598.55 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 62.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 72.76 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 48.03 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 34.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 61.01, IM01 was - 110.72, IM02 was - 226.59, IM03 was - 387.11 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 61.45, IC01 was - 101.64, IC02 was - 192.4, IC03 was - 320.35 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 9.18, IF01 was - 15.65, IF02 was - 28.67, IF03 was - 49.83 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.76, IH01 was 0.74, IH02 was 3.57, IH03 was 5.75 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [26][27]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [29]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Index Futures - On Wednesday morning, the A-share market fluctuated and declined, but rebounded in the afternoon driven by the artificial intelligence sector. Ignoring the overnight decline of US stocks and Asia-Pacific stock indices, index futures soared in a short-squeeze situation, contrasting with the limit-down of lithium carbonate. The loose capital situation is the main reason. Under the central bank's loose policy, funds flow into the stock and futures markets in search of returns. With the improvement of residents' wealth management awareness and the decline of the attractiveness of real estate, some funds have turned to the financial sector, enriching the stock market capital pool. The general bullish sentiment in the market forms a positive feedback - investors' buying drives up prices, and rising prices attract more funds, amplifying the gains. This change in sentiment and confidence has become an important psychological basis for the short-squeeze market of index futures IM and IC [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Taking the previous high as a reference, if the subsequent adjustment of yields cannot break through the previous high (for example, the previous high of 2.06% for the active 30-year treasury bond 2500002), then the most severe impact of the strong performance of the equity market on the bond market may have passed. At the same time, the bond market has also witnessed marginal positive factors such as the return of loose capital after the tax period and the relief of the fund redemption pressure after the previous release. This environment is conducive to the stabilization of bond market sentiment and also helps the bond market and the equity market to trade according to their own logics in the subsequent process [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Futures - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.16%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.08%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.4%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.23%. The 10-year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.1%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.5%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01% [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Review**: The 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year main contracts are involved [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [2] Futures Data - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of CSI 300 continuous contract was 4270.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.16%, a trading volume of 90,137 lots, and an open interest of 159,194 lots. The closing price of SSE 50 continuous contract was 2851.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.08%, a trading volume of 45,450 lots, and an open interest of 72,434 lots. The closing price of CSI 500 continuous contract was 6695.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.40%, a trading volume of 77,339 lots, and an open interest of 127,360 lots. The closing price of CSI 1000 continuous contract was 7276.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a trading volume of 196,109 lots, and an open interest of 217,300 lots. The closing price of 10-year treasury bond continuous contract was 107.84 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, a trading volume of 78,281 lots, and an open interest of 69,826 lots. The closing price of 5-year treasury bond continuous contract was 105.42 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.10%, a trading volume of 52,899 lots, and an open interest of 63,108 lots. The closing price of 30-year treasury bond continuous contract was 115.88 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.50%, a trading volume of 96,513 lots, and an open interest of 48,883 lots. The closing price of 2-year treasury bond continuous contract was 102.32 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a trading volume of 47,983 lots, and an open interest of 42,716 lots [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Buy on dips [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The short - term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the market has seen corrections due to expected deviations. Different industries face various supply - demand situations and policy impacts, leading to diverse price trends [2] - Market sentiment in the financial sector is warming up, with increased liquidity. Interest rate policies and geopolitical factors are influencing market trends [4] - In the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as production, consumption, and policies are affecting the supply - demand balance and price movements of different products [6][7][9] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, and terminal demand is weak. Although there is a production - cut expectation in the north in late August, the limit - production intensity is not as expected. The short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short - term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the bearish sentiment in the black sector is released [2] - **Rebar and Coil**: The production - limit policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production - cut is not as expected. Building material demand has declined, external demand has been overdrawn in advance, and real - estate investment continues to fall. The overall steel market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term futures price is expected to adjust downward to find support [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the mid - and downstream are in the stage of digesting previous inventories. Supply and demand have not improved significantly in the short term. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2] - **Soda Ash**: The short - term spot is weak, and the futures price has broken through the support level. Attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. There is capital inflow in some sectors and outflow in others. The new LPR remains unchanged, and policies are being implemented to support the economy. Market sentiment is warming up, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the Treasury bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks are affecting the price. The short - term price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] Soft Commodities and Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The paper - making industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. The pulp price is expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at the port has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory is declining, and the cost support has increased. The short - term price is expected to range - bound oscillate [6] - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on the main producing areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still have a small impact. The demand for tires is relatively stable, and the inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [9] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are increasing, but the inventory is lower than expected. The export demand is strong. Domestic soybean imports are high, and the inventory of different oils is changing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and correct [6] - **Meal Products**: The USDA has lowered the planting area of soybeans, and the production and inventory are expected to decline. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed have increased the cost. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to oscillate in the future [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the price is oscillating and rising. The short - term supply is still tight, and the price follows the oil price [9] - **PTA**: The cost - side support is general, the supply is gradually recovering, and the demand from downstream polyester factories is increasing. The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] - **PR**: The cost is supported by the overnight rise in crude oil, but the demand is only for rigid low - price replenishment, and the trading is dull [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders have improved slightly, and the factory inventory pressure is not large. Multiple factors are boosting the market, and it is expected to strengthen [9]