Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with the "boots" gradually landing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic Index Data Tracking - On October 29, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 1.2%, IH rose 0.41%, IC rose 2.06%, and IM rose 1.4% [2] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 11,905 lots, IH decreased by 6,016 lots, IC increased by 8,363 lots, and IM decreased by 23,657 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 439 lots, IH decreased by 762 lots, IC increased by 9,663 lots, and IM decreased by 5,250 lots [2][3] 3.2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1; the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with integer values, and the strength is classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3. Important Drivers - Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest - rate cut caused the market's probability of a December interest - rate cut to plummet from 95% to 65%. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies tumbled briefly during the session, while the U.S. dollar rose. Eventually, the Nasdaq closed up supported by NVIDIA, and the Dow closed down [7] - The A - share market performed strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,000 points, hitting a new high in the rebound; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%; the North Securities 50 soared more than 8%, hitting the largest daily increase in 9 months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 4,016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%, the North Securities 50 rose 8.41%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.18%, and the Wind All - A rose 1.16%. The total trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 2.29 trillion yuan, compared with 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day. The new energy sector exploded, with the energy - storage direction seeing a wave of limit - up stocks. The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively, led by copper and zinc. Computing hardware stocks strengthened again, with many stocks hitting record highs. The quantum technology concept has been strengthening recently, and the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to rise [7] 3.4. Index Futures' Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts vary, such as - 111 for IF2511, 1981 for IF2512, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 135 for IF2511, 1425 for IF2512 [6] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 222 for IH2511, - 1952 for IH2512, etc.; the short - position changes also show variations, like - 497 for IH2511, - 1497 for IH2512 [6] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are diverse, such as 1560 for IC2511, 4388 for IC2512, etc.; the short - position changes also have differences, like 1462 for IC2511, 4920 for IC2512 [6] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 948 for IM2512, - 262 for IM2603, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 585 for IM2512, - 33 for IM2603 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Volatile in the short - term, then bullish [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the gains. The content of the "Communiqué" of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosted market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue. However, the valuation of the science - innovation index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations released positive signals, and this week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports, so focus on important data such as the year - on - year revenue of the index [1]. - The recovery of risk appetite pushed up the equity market, and the positive signals from the Sino - US economic and trade talks further boosted the capital market sentiment, suppressing the bond market. But the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading strengthened the expectation of reasonable and abundant future liquidity, boosting the bond market sentiment, and the bond market will run bullishly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the A - share market performed well, with the Wind All - A rising 1.19% and a trading volume of 2.36 trillion yuan. The content of the "Communiqué" focused on three main lines, which met market expectations and boosted confidence. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations were constructive. This week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports, so pay attention to relevant data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank carried out 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced 9000 billion yuan of MLF, with a net injection of 3483 billion yuan. The recovery of risk appetite and positive Sino - US economic and trade signals suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted the bond market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, IH rose 0.60%, IF rose 1.07%, IC rose 1.32%, and IM rose 0.34% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, TS rose 0.05%, TF rose 0.12%, T rose 0.16%, and TL rose 0.34% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce 9 new policy measures to promote trade facilitation, including expanding the scope of high - level opening - up pilot projects for cross - border trade and optimizing the foreign exchange settlement of new trade formats [4]. - The central bank governor said that the central bank will resume treasury bond trading [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in China's soybean procurement from the U.S. have caused significant concern for the Trump administration, leading to market volatility, highlighting the strategic depth of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict [1][3][21] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China's countermeasures have been targeted, starting with special port fees on U.S. vessels, increasing operational costs for American shipping companies [3] - The introduction of rare earth export controls directly impacts U.S. high-end industries, as over 90% of U.S. rare earth needs are met through imports [3] - The combination of these measures has led to panic in the U.S., with significant market repercussions, including a chaotic stock market response [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Response and Market Implications - Trump's reaction to China's soybean procurement changes has been notably intense, indicating deeper implications beyond just agricultural interests [5][7] - The U.S. soybean market is currently facing an oversupply due to reduced Chinese purchases, disrupting the usual price signals in the futures market [13] - Speculation arises that Trump's family may be positioned to profit from these market fluctuations, suggesting a financial motive behind his public statements [13][19] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely a dispute over agricultural products but reflects a broader struggle over industrial security and financial stability between the two nations [21] - Trump's public comments risk undermining the stability of U.S. financial markets, which are crucial for the credibility of the dollar [19] - The strategic nature of China's countermeasures demonstrates a calculated approach to target vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, indicating a sophisticated level of economic warfare [21]

Group 1 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference took place from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, attracting significant attendance and engagement from exhibitors and visitors [1][6] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) showcased its collaboration with domestic universities at the event, highlighting its commitment to financial education [1][4] - The "CFFEX Cup" National College Financial Literacy Debate Competition concluded successfully in July, with Hunan University winning the championship [3][4] Group 2 - Since 2014, CFFEX has partnered with the China Futures Association to host the "CFFEX Cup" National College Student Financial Knowledge Competition, which has gained recognition and influence over the past decade [4] - The competition has seen participation from 1,230 universities and 300,000 students across various regions, making it one of the most influential financial events in China [4] - CFFEX has also established a "Bureau-Exchange-University Cooperation" mechanism, signing memorandums with ten universities to integrate investor education into the national education system [5] Group 3 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference was co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government [6]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-10-17 一、指数走势 10 月 16 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.1%，收于 3916.23 点，成交额 8692.65 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.25%，收于 13086.41 点，成交额 10618.73 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.09%，成交额 3742.97 亿元，其中开盘价 7460.76，收盘价 7401.84，当日最高价 7472.75，最低价 7378.3； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.86%，成交额 3598.38 亿元，其中开盘价 7269.26，收盘价 7231.53，当日最高价 7305.95，最低价 7206.44； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.26%，成交额 5605.67 亿元，其中开盘价 4588.92，收盘价 4618.42，当日最高价 4645.1，最低价 4586.28； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.59%，成交额 1520.8 亿元，其中开盘价 2994.22，收盘价 3019.2，当日最高价 3028.57，最低价 2992.55。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference took place from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, attracting significant attendance and interest in financial futures education [1][3] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) has been recognized as "excellent" in the national investor education base assessment for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024, emphasizing its commitment to investor education [3][4] - CFFEX has developed over 500 original investor education products, focusing on key dates such as "International Consumer Rights Day" and "World Investor Week," utilizing a multimedia center model [3][4] Group 2 - In 2023, CFFEX collaborated with 15 local securities regulatory bureaus to host 16 investor education events, enhancing its social impact and promoting comprehensive registration systems [4][5] - CFFEX has established financial futures learning zones in 43 investor education bases nationwide, providing convenient access to financial futures knowledge [4] - Future plans include expanding the learning zones to more regions in collaboration with various institutions, aiming to enhance the influence of financial futures education [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term bias is bullish as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: A - share four major stock indexes rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 13118.75 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 3025.87 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.4% to 1430 points. Market turnover was 2.0904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 506.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.72%), automobiles (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.29%) led the gains; steel (-0.21%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.14%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.01%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4332/153/944 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 8 billion, - 85 billion, - 104 billion, and 197 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +38.4 billion, +15.3 billion, - 29.1 billion, and - 24.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Basis Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 120.85, 97.8, 19.69, and 3.15 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.42%, - 11.97%, - 3.82%, and - 0.94% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 13%, 24%, and 35% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: The bond market weakened. Among the active contracts, the implied yield of the two - year bond was 1.395, up 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied yield of the five - year bond was 1.572, up 1.19 bps; the implied yield of the ten - year bond was 1.752, up 3.83 bps; and the implied yield of the thirty - year bond was 2.211, up 1.29 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.024, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.4 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.04 and an IRR of 1.65%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.38 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.156, and an IRR of 2.13% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan and withdrew 0 yuan, with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bias is bullish, as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10]

Core Viewpoint - US stock index futures are experiencing a decline, with the S&P 500 index futures down by 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 index futures down by 0.5% [1] Market Performance - Spot gold prices are rising, nearing $4,170, with an intraday increase of 1.4% [1] - Spot silver has also seen a significant rise, increasing by over 1.8% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Short - term fluctuations may occur due to Trump's tariff threat and high market valuations, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Investors who have reduced their positions can wait and look for better opportunities, while those who haven't can lock their positions in a timely manner [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market has been weak in the second and third quarters due to various negative factors, the fundamentals still provide support, and short - term treasury bonds may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: On October 10, A - shares adjusted significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points again, and the ChiNext and STAR Markets both slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.94% [6]. - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations are possible, but a panic - selling like that in April is less likely. Investors with reduced positions can wait, and those without can lock positions [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to operate in a volatile manner [6]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields declined significantly, with the long - end yields falling more, and the yield curve flattened significantly. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by more than 5bps [11]. - **Core View**: The bond market was affected by multiple negative factors in the second and third quarters, but the fundamentals still support it. Short - term treasury bonds may fluctuate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. Supply and demand improved, and raw material inventories were replenished, which supported the PMI. Supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The improvement in external and domestic demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **CPI**: In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was flat. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.9%, and the month - on - month was flat. Although there were positive changes in prices, domestic demand was still weak, and the international trade environment was uncertain [21]. - **Import and Export**: In August, exports maintained a resilient growth with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The growth rate of general trade exports declined, while that of processing trade exports increased. The growth rate of electromechanical products and labor - intensive products declined, while that of high - tech products increased. Imports declined, and the trade surplus widened to $102.33 billion [23]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits** - **Profit and Revenue Growth**: In August, both profit and revenue growth rates rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded to 20.4%, and the revenue growth rate was 1.9% [27]. - **Structural Factors**: The rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. The revenue growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries increased, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined [30]. - **Inventory and Turnover**: At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory growth rates of industrial enterprises declined. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [33]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the production intensity declined, especially in downstream industries. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and the service production index growth rate dropped to 5.6%. The export delivery value growth rate turned negative for the first time since 2024 [36]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all decreased. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1% [39]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of retail sales above a designated size dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption [42]. - **Social Financing** - **New Social Financing**: In August, the new social financing was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 trillion yuan. Credit and government bonds were the main drags [46]. - **Credit Structure**: Resident credit increased positively, but medium - and long - term loans still increased less year - on - year. The new credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan [46]. - **Money Supply**: In August, the M0 growth rate declined to 11.7%, the M1 growth rate continued to rise to 6.0%, and the M2 growth rate remained flat at 8.8%. The growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.8%, and after excluding government bonds, it dropped to 5.9% [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].