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国投期货综合晨报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 03:17
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The oil market in the fourth quarter faces greater supply - demand easing pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, but is supported by sanctions risks and peak - season demand. The price of precious metals maintains a buy - on - dips strategy in the shock trend. For most industrial metals, there are short - term supply and demand pressures, and the prices are expected to be volatile. The shipping index is expected to decline, and most agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as weather and trade policies, showing a volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which brings supply - demand pressure to the oil market in the fourth quarter. After the price correction this week, there is still upward risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Also, pay attention to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs by August 12 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Crude oil leads the decline of oil - related futures. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the FU - LU crack spread is expected to remain weak [20] - **Asphalt**: Venezuelan crude oil inflows to China increased by 3.8% in July. The August production plan is lower than that in July, but some refineries may over - produce. Demand in South China recovers slowly, and the overall commercial inventory increases slightly. The price follows the direction of crude oil with limited fluctuations [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP is significantly reduced, but the spot discount narrows. The supply is relatively loose, and the domestic demand has bottom - line support. The spot price has limited room to decline further [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong shock. The market is worried about the authenticity of US data and economic prospects, and the interest - rate market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The supply loss rate in the second half of the year is expected to increase. The social inventory increased to 135,900 tons on Monday. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase, and the demand feedback is negative. The price may be under pressure to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in August [4][8] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to policy changes during the "Golden September and Silver October". Wait for opportunities to short at high positions [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market returns to fundamentals. The upstream price support weakens, and the overall inventory is still high. Actively intervene in short positions as the rebound is in the middle - to - late stage [9] - **Tin**: The tin price declined overnight. Pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The iron - water output remains high, the production increase rate of silicon - manganese is lower than expected, and the manganese ore price increases slightly. The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The iron - water output is slightly down, the demand is fair, the supply is slightly up, and the inventory is slightly increased. The price is under increasing pressure [18] - **Rare Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates. The downstream replenishes goods as the price drops. The production of smelters decreases week - on - week. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [11] - **Cobalt**: The report does not mention cobalt - related content Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price continues to decline with reduced positions. The supply in major production areas increases marginally, and the demand growth in August is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price slightly declines. The supply continues to put pressure, and the spot processing margin needs to be repaired. Pay attention to the cost and demand in the short and medium terms respectively [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continues to decline due to weak supply - demand and oil - price drag. The supply increases, and the port inventory rises [27] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The prices follow the raw materials. The short - fiber industry may be boosted in the peak season, and the bottle - chip processing margin is limited by over - capacity [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. The domestic oil - mill soybean - meal inventory increases. The soybean - meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean may have a good harvest. The Chinese soybean oil may strengthen in the medium term. The Malaysian palm oil has weak short - term supply - demand. Adopt a low - buying strategy [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to fluctuate [34] - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn affects market expectations. The Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [36] - **Cotton**: The US cotton has normal weather, and the Chinese cotton has slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand. The 9 - 1 spread may rebound. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday - trading strategy [39] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's 25/26 sugar - production season increases. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [40] - **Apple**: The price of early - maturing apples starts to decline. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index declines slightly. The shipping companies' cargo - collection pressure increases, and the short - term view is bearish [19] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: The glass market is weak with inventory accumulation. The market returns to real - situation trading [29] - **Timber**: The timber demand and supply improve, and the futures price is expected to rise [42] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp price declines. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations [43] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock market rises, and the futures - index contracts all close up. The market sentiment is relatively positive in the medium term. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [44] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures fluctuate. The price spread between near - and far - month contracts widens. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45]
股指期货2025年8月报:震荡不改上行趋势-20250731
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:50
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].
光大期货金融期货日报-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:26
光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 07 月 31 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日,A 股市场震荡回调,Wind 全 A 下跌 0.4%,成交额 1.87 万亿元。中证 | | | | 1000 指数下跌 0.82%,中证 500 指数下跌 0.65%,沪深 300 指数下跌 0.02%, | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.38%。中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴 | | | | 制度实施方案》,标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近 | | | | 年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策,尽管总量仍有提升空间,但对于提升 | | | | 居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集 | | | | 资金,推出更多普惠型财政支持方案将成为拉动我国通胀环境企稳回升的一 | | | | 条重要路径。股市近期上涨主要来自三个逻辑:(1)长期:市场压住财政政 | | | 股指 | 策更多转向促销费领域,以及中美关系缓和后国内通胀水平回升,在此背景 | 震荡 | | | 下, ...
期指:会议落地,偏多支撑依旧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].
期指:震荡格局,下有支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with support at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index Data Tracking - On July 26, 2025, the current - month contracts of the four major futures indices showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.48%, IH fell 0.58%, IC fell 0.02%, and IM rose 0.03% [1]. - In terms of closing prices, index values were as follows: CSI 300 was 4127.16, SSE 50 was 2795.51, CSI 500 was 6299.59, and CSI 1000 was 6706.61 [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. IF's total trading volume decreased by 21687 lots, IH's by 6615 lots, IC's by 18535 lots, and IM's by 45693 lots [2]. - In terms of positions, IF's total position decreased by 11192 lots, IH's by 3451 lots, IC's by 4233 lots, and IM's by 11290 lots [2]. 3.2. Futures Index Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - order changes of IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were - 3625, - 5795, and 532 respectively; the short - order changes were - 4398, - 6036, and 881 respectively [5]. - For IH contracts, the long - order changes of IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were - 8, - 2468, and - 154 respectively; the short - order changes were - 508, - 2599, and - 51 respectively [5]. - For IC contracts, the long - order changes of IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were - 2215, - 1875, and - 182 respectively; the short - order changes were - 2087, - 2628, and 298 respectively [5]. - For IM contracts, the long - order changes of IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were - 2637, - 6387, and - 540 respectively; the short - order changes were - 3420, - 7360, and 142 respectively [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with different levels of strength classification [6]. - The CSRC held a mid - year work meeting, emphasizing the basis and conditions for maintaining the stable and healthy operation of the capital market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Expenditures in key areas such as social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health increased [6]. - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the tariff increase deadline on August 1 would not be extended [6]. - A high - level US business delegation is set to visit China [6]. 3.4. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%. The A - share market's full - day trading volume was 1.82 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, with all three major indices rising for five consecutive weeks [7]. - In the afternoon session, funds flowed out of cyclical stocks and back into the technology sector. Lithography machines and STAR Market chip stocks were in high demand, and Cambricon once rose 16%. The film and television and rare earth sectors were also active [7].
综合晨报-20250725
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 06:59
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%, OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击,近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多,油价以震荡承压为主;8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存,但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌,与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲,德国制造业动能转折, ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250725
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 03:08
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-07-24-20250724
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 07:11
Index Trends - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.3 points, with a trading volume of 857.046 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to close at 11059.04 points, with a trading volume of 1007.554 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.45% with a trading volume of 378.33 billion yuan. The opening price was 6634.12, the closing price was 6607.22, the highest price was 6667.86, and the lowest price was 6594.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 311.06 billion yuan. The opening price was 6218.21, the closing price was 6196.76, the highest price was 6256.15, and the lowest price was 6187.01 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.32% with a trading volume of 130.89 billion yuan. The opening price was 2798.96, the closing price was 2801.2, the highest price was 2824.86, and the lowest price was 2794.81 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 29.88 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Machinery, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 16.65 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Electronics and Machinery significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Basic Chemicals, National Defense and Military Industry, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 0.81 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Household Appliances significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 9.02 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Electronics significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 48.5, IM01 was - 119.08, IM02 was - 302.24, and IM03 was - 461.12 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 34.98, IC01 was - 84.14, IC02 was - 208.95, and IC03 was - 322.64 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 5.22, IF01 was - 13.77, IF02 was - 44.24, and IF03 was - 74.51 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.54, IH01 was 0.86, IH02 was 3.02, and IH03 was 4.05 [12]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and annualized costs of IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time points are provided, including specific values at 09:45, 10:00, etc. [23][24][25]
广发早知道:汇总版-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - **Funding**: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **News**: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - **Index**: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - **Logic**: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - **Macro**: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - **Demand**: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - **Inventory**: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - **Logic**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - **Logic**: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - **Supply**: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - **Logic**: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - **Supply**: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - **Demand and Inventory**: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - **Operation Suggestion**: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - **Supply**: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - **Logic**: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - **Futures**: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - **Demand**: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - **Logic**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - **Demand**: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - **Logic**: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - **Demand**: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - **Logic**: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - **Market Outlook**: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-7-22)-20250722
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:16
Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]