Group 1: ETF Performance - In July, the top-performing ETFs included the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF and the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF, both rising over 26% [1] - The top 10 ETFs in July all recorded gains exceeding 23.9%, with year-to-date increases surpassing 86% [1] - Conversely, gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with several falling over 2% in July [1] Group 2: A-share Market Trends - The A-share market in August is expected to be influenced by policies, external events, and economic fundamentals [5][6] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had a mixed performance in August, with 7 out of 15 years seeing gains [4] - Positive policies and limited external risks are likely to boost market sentiment in August [6] Group 3: Economic and Profit Recovery - Economic recovery trends are anticipated to continue in August, with improvements in industrial and overall A-share earnings growth [6] - The impact of mid-year earnings reports on A-share performance is diminishing, as seen in previous years [5] Group 4: Market Liquidity - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain accommodative in August, with potential increases in foreign capital inflows due to economic recovery expectations [6] - High market sentiment may lead to increased financing activities and new fund launches [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The market style in August is expected to be balanced, with growth and cyclical sectors likely to outperform [7] - The "barbell strategy" (combining technology and dividend stocks) may yield limited excess returns this August due to improving economic and profit expectations [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates a generally optimistic assessment from the Politburo meeting, highlighting that China's economy is showing strong vitality and resilience, with major economic indicators performing well and high-quality development achieving new results [4] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects, while also recognizing the complex changes in the development environment [4] - The report notes that the capital market's development status is affirmed, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which is crucial for stabilizing market confidence and ensuring financial security [5] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that the overall environment is favorable for the stable development of the stock market, with a high likelihood of a slow bull market, recommending a high position with a focus on holding strategies [6] - The report advocates for a stock selection based on economic prosperity, continuing to favor a combination of large technology, high dividends, and consumption, while also paying attention to sectors with good economic prospects such as innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and cyclical products [6]

鲍威尔暗示他仍致力于维护年初看似已实现的"软着陆"，即通胀回落但未严重损害就业市场。然而，关 税推高部分商品价格后形成的逆风，可能使美联储偏离轨道。五年前新冠疫情爆发时，美联储实施超常 规刺激且撤出迟缓，导致了2022年通胀显现顽固性后的急速加息。 周三，这位美联储主席重申四年前的承诺：确保任何价格上涨不会持续。"但我们希望高效地实现目标 ——高效地，"他在记者会上表示。过早降息可能迫使美联储后续再度加息，"这很低效"，但等待过久 又可能对就业市场造成不必要伤害。 在第一种经济情境中，鲍威尔引以为豪的4.1%失业率正掩盖劳动力市场加速恶化的风险。"失业率数据 让你对就业市场真实状况产生误判，"复兴宏观研究经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔（Neil Dutta）指出。相比同 等失业率水平的经济体，当前实际想工作却退出劳动力市场的人数异常多，零薪资增长的劳动者比例畸 高，仅半数行业在新增岗位——这一指标处于历史低位。美联储理事沃勒两周前的演讲已警示此类担 忧。 利率制定有时更像艺术而非科学，尤其当经济持续背离预期时——美联储周三直面了这一现实。美国可 能正处在两种经济情境中的任意一种，而美联储官员或许还需数月才能辨明真相： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance after a rise, while sectors like banking, insurance, gaming, and consumption performed well [1][2] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with a steady increase in ETF size and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June introduces uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1][3] Group 2 - Despite a pullback, the overall positive trend in the A-share market remains unchanged, with active trading and a market turnover exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating good market momentum [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the "increasing income without increasing profit" dilemma, supporting a recovery in A-share performance [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently above 3600 points, maintaining a strong technical trend, although there is some differentiation at high levels, particularly with increased selling pressure in the ChiNext [3]

Economic Policy and Strategy - The central government emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to enhance flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation [1][2] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][3] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity, with a focus on supporting technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The government aims to support consumption as a priority to effectively release domestic demand potential, including a continuation of the 138 billion yuan subsidy for replacing old consumer goods [3] - Policies will be developed to enhance service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial support for personal consumption loans [3] - Structural reforms will be pursued to improve supply quality and stimulate market vitality, focusing on fostering internationally competitive emerging industries and integrating technological and industrial innovation [3][4] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market is increasingly seen as a barometer for the macroeconomy, with efforts to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity to support economic recovery [4] - The implementation of urban renewal actions and the promotion of a healthy real estate market are viewed as essential for economic stability [4] - A systematic approach combining short-term goals with long-term tasks is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of policies and release economic potential [4]

要实现"十四五"圆满收官，做好下半年经济工作至关重要。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议明确，着力稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""努力完成全年经 济社会发展目标任务"，并作出一系列重要部署，释放了多重信号。 ◎本报记者集体采写 看点1 宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是经济保持平稳运行的重要推动力。7月30日中央政治局会议提出，宏观政策要持续发力、适 时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 本次会议重申坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月中央政治局会议"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"的表述，同时提到"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 粤开证券首席经济学家兼研究院院长罗志恒表示，"适时加力""增强灵活性预见性"意味着：一方面，延 续前期政策，落实既定的财政货币金融政策，做好政策接续，不搞大拐弯，让经营主体有稳定的政策预 期和市场预期，推动经济持续平稳运行；另一方面，也要看到政策的连续性，同时根据形势变化做出灵 活调整， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July 30 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining awareness of potential risks and challenges, despite the positive economic indicators [2]. Policy Direction - The meeting stressed the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that new policies may be quickly implemented in response to economic fluctuations [3][4]. - There is a focus on promoting domestic demand and the dual circulation strategy, with an emphasis on stabilizing internal demand after a period of "grabbing exports" [3]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments, particularly supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4]. - Fiscal policies will continue to prioritize the acceleration of government bond issuance and the effective use of funds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13 [4]. - The monetary policy will focus on reducing the overall financing costs for society, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [4][6]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, with a strong emphasis on "high-quality" investments [5][7]. - There is a commitment to improving consumer demand through policies that enhance living standards and expand consumption, particularly in the service sector [6]. - The meeting reiterated the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7]. Conclusion - The overall message from the meeting indicates a proactive approach to economic management, with a focus on sustaining growth through strategic policy implementation and addressing potential risks in the economic landscape [2][4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while U.S. consumer spending is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, residential and business fixed investment will show significant weakness [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Actual personal consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the second quarter [1] - The strength of service spending in June remains uncertain [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Residential and business fixed investment is anticipated to be notably weak in the second quarter [1] - Equipment investment has shown a significant slowdown, with businesses reducing spending on computers and communication equipment after a concentrated import period in the first quarter [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming GDP data may show a rebound, but trade policy disruptions and structural weaknesses are masking true growth momentum [1] - A survey indicates that after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, the annualized GDP growth for April to June could reach 2.4%, with some institutions raising expectations to 3.3% due to revised trade and inventory data [1] - The contribution of trade to GDP saw a record decline of 4.61 percentage points in Q1, and while some reversal is expected in Q2, low inventory levels due to decreased import flows are dampening the positive effects of trade growth on GDP [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, is expected to show only a modest recovery after stagnation in Q1, while business investment is likely to remain weak [2] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over ten years, with only a 0.5% average annual increase in real GDP, raising questions about the effectiveness of the policy [2] - The labor market is a critical observation point, with expectations that as long as layoffs do not significantly increase, the economy may maintain growth in the second half of the year, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of final sales to domestic private buyers is expected to be lower than Q1's 1.9%, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - Balancing trade protection with economic growth presents a challenge for policymakers and businesses alike [3]

Economic Overview - China's GDP exceeded 66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of around 5% [1] - In the second quarter, the economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 7.2%, indicating resilience despite external pressures [1][5] - Consumer retail sales showed a rebound due to policies promoting the replacement of old goods, while investment growth slowed, particularly in infrastructure and real estate [1][5] Investment Insights - Investment growth has declined, with significant drops in real estate and infrastructure investments, and private investment turning negative [7] - The need for stronger investment policies is emphasized, as industrial profits and profit margins have decreased compared to the previous year [7][8] - The government is expected to implement supportive policies to stabilize investment, particularly in the face of declining returns [7][12] Consumption Trends - Consumption is projected to maintain steady growth, supported by various policies including a 1.38 billion yuan fund for replacing old goods [8][14] - Long-term strategies to boost consumption include improving social security systems and increasing residents' income [8][15] - The overall consumption market is estimated to be around 80 trillion yuan, with the 3 billion yuan stimulus being a relatively small part of the total [14] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with sales and investment declining [15][16] - Policies are being developed to stabilize the market, including debt management for developers and promoting new housing demand through urban renewal projects [16][18] - The government is expected to enhance financing support for real estate companies and encourage debt restructuring to improve liquidity [16][18] Policy Recommendations - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy are necessary to address low demand and support economic recovery [10][12] - The focus should be on maintaining strong fiscal spending and potentially lowering interest rates to alleviate financial pressures on businesses [10][12] - Addressing "involution" in competition is crucial to restore market dynamics and improve investment returns [11][18]