Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.12% at $36.91 per ounce [2] - International oil prices strengthened, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.24% at $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 0.96% at $67.11 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 1.03% at $9,769.02 per ton and LME nickel down 0.76% at $15,325.9 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Styrene (EB) rose more than 1%, while coking coal fell more than 2% [4] - U.S. agricultural product futures fell across the board, with CBOT corn futures down 2.15%, CBOT wheat futures down 2.25%, and CBOT soybean futures down 0.12% [4] 2. Macroeconomic News - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1,622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period [7] - Citigroup postponed its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut from July to September and now expects a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year [7] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore decreased by 5.2%, crude oil increased by 0.3%, coal decreased by 7.9%, natural gas decreased by 9.5%, soybeans decreased by 0.7%, and refined oil decreased by 26.8% [7] - In May 2025, China's CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [8] - On June 9, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [9] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [9] 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - The local quotation of photovoltaic glass in the market has fallen below 12 yuan per square meter, with the lowest transaction price approaching 11.5 yuan per square meter [13] - As of June 6, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.39 million cubic meters, down 0.59% from the previous week [13] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, down 0.67% from the previous period [13] - Morgan Stanley said OPEC+ may be significantly increasing oil production quotas, but the actual output increase is not obvious [13] - The U.S. Bank's commodities research head said OPEC+'s oil production increase plan is part of Saudi Arabia's strategy to start a long - term but moderate price war [13] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. plan on the Iran nuclear deal is unacceptable [14] 4. Metal Futures - The listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts AD2511 - AD2605 are set at 18,365 yuan per ton [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high market volatility and advised members and investors to take risk - prevention measures [18] - China's lithium hydroxide production in June 2025 is expected to be 20,200 tons, down 5.8% month - on - month [19] 5. Black - series Futures - Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 3.5104 million tons, up 79,400 tons week - on - week [21] - China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals totaled 2.6739 million tons, up 76,500 tons week - on - week [21] - As of the week of June 6, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 420,200 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous period [21] 6. Agricultural Product Futures - The central government will conduct a 10,000 - ton centralized procurement of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [25] - As of June 6, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 812,700 tons, up 7.66% week - on - week [25] - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to be 169.27 million tons and Argentina's to be 4.904 million tons [25] - With the arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean commercial inventory of major oil mills has reached nearly 7 million tons [26] - APK - Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons [27] - As of June 9, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.9568 million tons, up 215,970 tons from June 3 [28] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers in the central - southern region had harvested 1.9% of the 2025 second - season corn, the slowest pace since 2021 [28] - In the week ending June 5, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, and the U.S. shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China [31] - As of June 8, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [31] 7. Financial Markets Commodities - The first recycled metal variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10, with the benchmark price for 7 contracts set at 18,365 yuan per ton [33] Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields were mixed, and the central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [36] - Japan is considering repurchasing some long - term bonds, and Japanese investors sold a large amount of German and U.S. sovereign bonds in April [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board due to concerns about bond auctions, supply - demand adjustments, and investor sentiment [37] - European bond yields generally declined due to weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone [37] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system and strengthen its role as an offshore RMB business center [38] - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1838 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [38] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices fell last week, hitting new lows [41] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.19% at the New York close, and non - U.S. currencies generally rose [41] 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include South Korea's April current account, the U.K.'s May unemployment rate, etc. [44] - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, and various conferences and corporate events [46]

期货市场上看，6月6日收盘，硅铁期货主力合约报5104.00元/吨，涨幅0.08%，最高触及5188.00元/吨， 最低下探5098.00元/吨，日内成交量达163627手。 【市场资讯】 6月6日，郑商所硅铁期货仓单录得15576张，较上一交易日减少260张；最近一周，硅铁期货仓单累计减 少1177张，减少幅度为7.03%；最近一个月，硅铁期货仓单累计减少2305张，减少幅度为12.89%。 昨日，各主产区72号硅铁现货汇总价格约5130-5200元/吨，较前一日基本持平。 （6月6日）全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | 报价 | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 新华实业 | 5100元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏新华实业集团有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 中卫银河 | 5100元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫县银河冶炼有限公 | | 块 | ...

Summary of LME Non-Ferrous Metal Inventory Report Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a decrease in non-ferrous metal inventories across various metals, indicating potential supply tightening in the market [1] Inventory Changes - Copper inventory stands at 132,400 tons, down by 5,600 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory is at 363,850 tons, reduced by 2,000 tons [1] - Nickel inventory is recorded at 200,106 tons, decreasing by 618 tons [1] - Zinc inventory totals 136,975 tons, with a decline of 175 tons [1] - Lead inventory is at 281,275 tons, down by 1,375 tons [1] - Tin inventory is reported at 2,440 tons, decreasing by 5 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [3]. - The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - Silver has upward momentum under the Fed's loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips [8]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals face different degrees of upward resistance or downward pressure, and corresponding trading strategies are given according to different metal varieties [10][11][12]. - The steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. - The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely due to "low valuation" [26][27]. - The prices of industrial silicon may continue to decline due to over - supply and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For rubber, a short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. - For crude oil, short - term observation is recommended [38]. - For methanol, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for urea, it is recommended to wait and see; for PVC, the medium - term fundamentals are still weak; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of valuation correction; for PTA, it will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level; for p - xylene, it will oscillate at the current valuation level; for polyethylene, the price will oscillate; for polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [39][40][41]. - For livestock and poultry products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [51][52]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. - For oils and fats, it is expected to oscillate [56]. - For sugar, the price may weaken in the future; for cotton, it is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term [58][59]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.153 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: There are expectations of RRR cuts and restarting bond purchases, and there are calls for the Fed to cut interest rates in the US. The US ADP employment data in May was far lower than expected [2]. - **Funding Situation**: The margin trading balance increased by 3.469 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 0.20bp. The credit spread and Sino - US interest rate spread both decreased [2]. - **Valuation Indicators**: The price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, as well as the basis ratios of stock index futures [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: The main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose on Wednesday [5]. - **News**: South Korea plans to formulate a second supplementary budget, and the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if inflation meets expectations [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.45%, and Shanghai silver and COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of increase [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed is approaching the time to signal further interest rate cuts. The US economic data has weakened comprehensively, and the silver - gold ratio has declined. Silver has upward momentum [7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper rose 0.11%, and SHFE copper also showed a slight increase. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipt increased slightly [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The copper price faces upward resistance due to factors such as marginal improvement in supply tension and weakening consumption resilience [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose 0.67%, and SHFE aluminum also increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods showed different trends [11]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 1.21%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price still has a large downward risk due to over - supply and weak terminal consumption [12]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.59%. The downstream demand for lead is weak, and the supply of primary lead is increasing while the supply of recycled lead is decreasing [13]. - **Price Outlook**: If the price of recycled lead raw materials drops further, it may deepen the downward space of the lead price [13]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: The nickel price oscillated. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [14]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but it is still bearish in the long - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [14]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: The tin price rebounded significantly due to concerns about supply. The downstream demand has not increased significantly [15]. - **Price Outlook**: The rebound space of the tin price is limited, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose. The main contract reduced its position, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, position changes, and supply disturbances [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 2.11%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures inventory decreased [18]. - **Price Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost, and it is recommended to go short on rallies lightly [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price remained stable. The raw material prices showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [19]. - **Price Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is in a situation of oversupply, and the traders have difficulty in supporting the price [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose, and the spot prices also increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the supply decreased; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both increased, and the inventory continued to decrease [21][22]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose. The iron - ore shipment increased, the iron - water output decreased, and the port inventory continued to decrease [23]. - **Price Outlook**: The iron - ore price may oscillate as the iron - water output declines and the downstream demand weakens [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass in Shahe remained unchanged, and the production enterprise's inventory decreased slightly. The short - term spot sales were good, but the medium - term futures price is expected to be weak [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash was slightly adjusted. The supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and the inventory increased. The demand is expected to decline, and the medium - term fundamentals are still weak [25]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose slightly, but they are still in a downward trend [26][27]. - **Price Outlook**: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are affected by factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and cost reduction, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely [26][27]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, but it is still in a downward trend. The supply is over - abundant, and the demand is insufficient [32][33]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: The prices of NR and RU were boosted by the rebound of coking coal and coke. The operating rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of natural rubber decreased [36]. - **Price Outlook**: A short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, while the INE crude oil futures price rose. The US EIA data showed different trends in inventory changes [38]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term observation is recommended [38]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [39]. - **Price Outlook**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract [39]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre [40]. - **Price Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price rose, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [41]. - **Price Outlook**: The medium - term fundamentals are still weak, and the main logic is inventory reduction weakening [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The ethylene - glycol futures price fell, and the spot price also decreased. The supply load increased slightly, and the downstream load decreased. The port inventory decreased [42]. - **Price Outlook**: There is a risk of valuation correction [42]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price decreased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory decreased [44]. - **Price Outlook**: PTA will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The p - xylene futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply load increased, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [45]. - **Price Outlook**: It will oscillate at the current valuation level, and the destocking will slow down in June and accelerate in the third quarter [45]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The polyethylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The price will oscillate [46]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The polypropylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply will increase significantly in June, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [47][48]. - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be bearish in June [47]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price generally fell, the supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [51]. - **Price Outlook**: The pig price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price was generally stable, the supply was stable, and the demand was weak [52]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot price is under downward pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal spot price fell. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase [53]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybean meal is affected by both external cost support and domestic supply pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: The palm - oil production in Malaysia increased in May, and the export also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats showed different trends, and the spot basis oscillated slightly [55]. - **Price Outlook**: The oils and fats are expected to oscillate due to factors such as production recovery, policy uncertainty, and inventory levels [56]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot price fell slightly. The sales volume and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [57]. - **Price Outlook**: The sugar price may weaken in the future due to factors such as international supply and domestic import [58]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price fell slightly. The US cotton planting and budding rates showed different trends [59]. - **Price Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [59].

Market Performance - US stock indices ended mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.22%, Nasdaq up 0.32%, and S&P 500 up 0.01% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.04%, and notable gains in NIO (over 6%), Alibaba, Xpeng Motors, and Kingsoft (over 3%) [1] Tariff War Escalation - The US has officially increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, prompting discussions between the EU and US trade representatives [2] - Mexico's president mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs on US steel as well [3] Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI index fell to 49.9 in May, indicating a contraction in service sector activity, while ADP reported only 37,000 new jobs, the slowest growth in over two years [3] - Following the release of these economic indicators, there are increasing calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with the dollar index dropping over 20 points [3] Federal Reserve's Economic Report - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a slight decline in economic activity, with rising costs and prices attributed to higher tariffs [4] - The term "tariff" appeared 122 times in the latest Beige Book, reflecting its significant impact on economic conditions [4] Budget Deficit Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the budget deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [7] - The bill is projected to reduce government revenue by $3.67 trillion and spending by $1.25 trillion by 2034, without accounting for potential economic growth effects [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump's decision to double tariffs on aluminum and steel to 50% has led to a significant increase in U.S. aluminum and steel futures prices, with aluminum prices reaching their highest level since 2013 [1][3] - Following the announcement, U.S. steel and aluminum producers' stock prices surged in after-hours trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the tariff increase [3] - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise costs for key construction materials, with construction companies warning that the higher tariffs will impact their expenses [3] Group 2 - Comex aluminum futures prices rose by 54%, while steel futures increased by over 8% after the tariff announcement, although some gains were later reversed [1][3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that over 80% of U.S. aluminum is imported, while less than 20% of steel comes from overseas, highlighting the reliance on imports [3] - Citigroup analysts predict that prices will continue to rise due to insufficient domestic capacity, particularly for aluminum, suggesting that the tariffs primarily impose a tax on consumers [3][4] Group 3 - The potential for increased tariffs on copper is being factored into market expectations, with analysts observing that U.S. buyers are preemptively importing materials ahead of any potential tariff implementation [4] - The premium for aluminum on the New York Commodity Exchange is likely to attract more raw materials to the U.S., reducing inventories outside the country and maintaining tightness in global markets [4]

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

Group 1 - The Guangxi Autonomous Region is experiencing frequent extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds, prompting the safety committee to issue a notice to enhance safety measures [1] - In the transportation sector, there is a focus on comprehensive safety inspections and special governance for cargo transportation, with an emphasis on key vehicles, routes, and times to increase hazard detection and patrol efforts [1] - The construction industry is urged to strengthen on-site safety management, particularly for scaffolding, tower cranes, and foundation support, while also monitoring geological disaster-prone areas [1] Group 2 - In the mining sector, there is a push for risk assessment and the establishment of early warning mechanisms, with a focus on both underground and open-pit mines during the flood season [2] - The chemical industry is advised to manage hazardous materials effectively, especially those located near rivers and coastal areas, and to implement safety measures against adverse weather [2] - The tourism sector is required to conduct thorough safety checks on high-risk facilities and to ensure travel agencies assess the safety of their products, while also developing emergency response plans [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...