交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22890，基差+710；偏多。 3、库存：6月3日LME锌库存较上日减少800吨至137350吨，6月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

有色金属日报 2025-6-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中国财新制造业 PMI 弱于预期，而中美元首可能通话带动情绪回暖，离岸人民币走升，铜价先抑后 扬，昨日伦铜收涨 0.24%至 9638 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78180 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库 存减少 4600 至 143850 吨，注销仓单比例提高至 51.7%，Cash/3M 升水 51 美 ...

宏观策略（国债期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 48.3 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-04 财新 PMI 较前值下降，经济基本面修复基础不牢的问题依旧存 在，但债市对于基本面数据的反应较为钝化。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贸易代表办公室致函谈判国 提醒注意关税暂停期结束时间 美国贸易代表发函提醒关税暂停结束时间，这表明了关税谈判 需要加速，特朗普关税政策转变趋势没有改变。 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 港口大豆库存继续上升 晨 报 USDA 公布的首个美豆优良率略低于市场预期，但未来产区天气 良好，暂时缺乏炒作题材。国内豆粕供应压力继续凸显，油厂 豆粕库存上升。昨日豆粕现货下跌，成交清淡。 有色金属（工业硅） 2025 年 5 月工业硅产量 30.77 万吨 左侧做多仍面临一定风险，前期空单可止盈。 财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 48.3 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存下降 油价震荡偏强，美国 API 原油库存下降。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金属） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业 ...

| ○ 基金经理：柳军 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 累计任职时间：16年又3天 任职起始日期：2009-06-04 现任基金公司：华泰柏瑞基金管理有限公司 | | | 基金经理简介:柳军先生:中国国籍。监事.复旦大学财务管理硕士.2000-2001年任上海汽车集 团财务有限公司财务,2001-2004年任华安基金管理有限公司高级基金核算员,2004年7月加入 华泰柏瑞基金管理有限公司,历任基金率务部总监、上证红利ETF基金经理助理。2009年6月 | | | | | | | 现任基金资产 在管基金最佳 | | | 起任上证红利交易型开放式指数证券投资基金的基金经理。2010年10月起担任指数投资部副 总监。2011年1月至2020年2月任华泰柏瑞上证中小盘ETF基金、华泰柏瑞上证中小盘ETF联 | | | | | | | 总规模 | 任期回报 | | 接基金基金经理。2012年5月起任华泰和瑞沪深300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、华泰柏 | | | | | | | 4232.91亿 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250603 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.从合约货与工业企业利润的关系，寻找库存去化与订单景气的方向——资产配置周报 （2025/05/26-2025/05/30） ➢ 2.抢出口有支撑，但强度相对温和——国内观察：2025年5月PMI ➢ 1.美国4月PCE出炉 ➢ 2.特朗普称美国钢铁进口税提高至50% ➢ 3.工业和信息化部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度 ➢ 4.美国延长对中国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the macro level shows a weakening signal, the fundamental contradiction is weak, and the domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral. Attention should be paid to the possible slight increase in inventory, which may suppress the absolute price [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, there is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to appear in early June. Attention should be paid to the node of inventory change from decline to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. The domestic - foreign positive spread can be partially closed at an appropriate time [2]. - For nickel, the supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - For lead, the price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply is expected to decrease in May. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16700 next week [6]. - For tin, affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state currently, but there is large potential supply pressure in the future. In the long - term, the price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the price falls this week. In the short term, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline after fluctuations next week. In the medium - long term, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decline significantly, the price will still fluctuate weakly [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 30, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 101, and the LME inventory decreased by 2500 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, a large amount of Russian copper is extracted from LME warehouses, and the LME cash - 3M spread widens. Domestically, the cross - month spread and spot premium remain stable, and the downstream demand may weaken. The supply is affected by the shutdown of Kamora Copper Mine, which is expected to resume in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 1, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 16856 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand in May - June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2225 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The domestic TC rises, and the smelting output in June is expected to increase by 25,000 tons compared with May. The domestic demand elasticity is limited, and the overseas demand recovers slightly. The domestic social inventory accumulates slowly, and the LME inventory declines slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 550, the spot import return decreased by 874.57, and the LME inventory decreased by 762 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory accumulates slightly, and the domestic inventory remains stable [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coil, 304 hot - rolled coil, 201 cold - rolled coil, 430 cold - rolled coil, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply rebounds seasonally in April and some steel mills cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 2375 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuates and declines this week. The supply side has problems such as raw material shortage and low profit, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak overall demand [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the spot import return decreased by 1720.64, the spot export return increased by 2414.63, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the overall low commodity sentiment and weak energy varieties, the tin price center moves down. The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is limited by the slowdown of the electronics and photovoltaic industries [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 615 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market start - up rate increases slightly. The demand from the organic silicon industry increases slightly, but the overall demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level, and there is large potential supply pressure in the future [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 26 to May 30, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 427 [14]. - **Market Situation**: The price falls this week. The downstream demand is weak, the supply side has production resumption and reduction situations, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down. In the short term, the price is expected to decline after fluctuations [14].

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-6-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价小幅冲高后回落，伦铜周跌 1.22%至 9497 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77600 元/吨，端午 假期间特朗普威胁提高钢铁和铝关税导致美铜走强，贵金属和原油价格亦上涨，伦铜上涨 1.24%。产 业层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 0.7 至 10.6 万吨，LME 库存 减少 1.5 至 15.0 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 16.4 万吨。上海保税区库 ...