Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk sentiment has continued to improve due to the progress in Sino-US trade negotiations and the overall easing trend of geopolitical conflicts. However, the substantial impact on the US economy from tariff negotiations requires continuous observation. In the short term, there may be some adjustment space for the premium of precious metals previously brought by safe-haven demand. [2][4] - The Sino-US trade talks have achieved substantial progress, but the copper market still faces challenges such as a decline in processing fees and weakening downstream demand. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. [6][9][10] - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Considering the expected oversupply situation, shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [16][18][19] - The Sino-US trade talks' progress may affect aluminum consumption. Although the aluminum inventory is expected to decline in the short term, the overall annual oversupply pressure remains. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. [21][23][24] - Zinc prices may face downward pressure due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the inflow of imported refined zinc, and the gradual accumulation of social inventory. [27][29][30] - Lead prices are expected to remain volatile under the background of the continuous expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the off-season of battery replacement. [33] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro situation. [36][39][40] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, following the trends of nickel prices and the macro sentiment. [42][43] - Industrial silicon supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in May, leading to an oversupply situation. Shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [48][49] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise in the short term due to the strong demand from some crystal pulling factories and the relatively small number of delivery products. A long position in the PS2506 contract and a positive spread strategy of going long on PS2506 and short on PS2507 are recommended. [52][53] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs, but the overall oversupply situation remains. Holding short positions is recommended. [58][59] - Tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors. In the short term, they are expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of tin mines. [64][65] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold initially declined below $3,280 and then rebounded, closing up 0.63% at $3,326.46 per ounce on Friday. However, it gapped down this morning due to the substantial progress in Sino-US economic and trade talks over the weekend. Spot silver closed up 0.84% at $32.72 per ounce on Friday. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.33% at 790.74 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.88% at 8,221 yuan per kilogram. [2] - The US dollar index gave back part of the previous day's gains, closing down 0.3% at 100.339. [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury note fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 4.378%. [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar traded sideways, finally closing up 0.07% at 7.2399. [2] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks in Switzerland have achieved substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Trump announced that he will release important content and plans to sign an executive order to reduce drug prices by 30%-80%. [2] - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate policies. The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 82.7% and cut the interest rate by 25 basis points with a probability of 17.3%. In July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 50.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 8.7%. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts: There were sporadic conflicts between India and Pakistan, but the situation has eased. Putin proposed to restart direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on the 15th, and Zelensky said he would wait for Putin in Turkey. The Ukrainian foreign minister said that Ukraine is ready to unconditionally cease fire for at least 30 days. [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [4] Copper Market Review - The price of LME copper closed at $9,439 on Friday, down $35.5 or 0.37%. [6] - LME inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 191,700 tons on Friday, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,533 short tons to 160,250 short tons. [6] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [6] - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the average from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. [6][8] - In April 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 438,000 tons, the same as in April 2024. From January to April, the cumulative import was 1.742 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [10] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 14 yuan per ton to 2,810 yuan per ton. [12] - The spot prices of alumina in various regions increased to varying degrees. [12] Important Information - As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2%. In April 2025, the weighted average full cost of alumina was 3,211 yuan per ton, a decrease of 81 yuan per ton month-on-month and an increase of 462 yuan per ton year-on-year. The alumina industry had an average loss of 311 yuan per ton, and the loss increased by 266 yuan per ton month-on-month. [13][14] - The third 1-million-ton production line of a large alumina enterprise in Shandong was put into operation in mid-April, and it is expected to produce finished products by the end of the month. The second 1.6-million-ton production line of a large alumina plant in Hebei will produce finished products in late May, and the third 1.6-million-ton production line will be put into operation in early June. [14] - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market experienced a significant price adjustment. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was reduced to $75 per dry ton (CIF), and the price of bulk ore dropped to $76 per dry ton. [14] - Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. [14] - Guinea's transitional president signed two executive orders on May 9, terminating the mining concessions of two foreign mining companies in the country. [15] - On May 9, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at an ex-factory price of 2,900 yuan per ton. [15] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate. If the oversupply situation remains unchanged after a price rebound, shorting is recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [19] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract increased by 70 yuan per ton to 19,655 yuan per ton. [21] - On May 9, the spot prices of A00 aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China were 19,610 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), 19,550 yuan per ton (down 30 yuan), and 19,600 yuan per ton (up 10 yuan), respectively. [21] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [21] - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. [22] - On May 9, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets decreased by 15,000 tons compared with the previous trading day. [22] - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% compared with the same period last year. [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the overall marginal easing of tariff expectations, attention should be paid to the results of the Sino-US talks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. - Arbitrage: Considering the strong current situation and weak future expectations, a positive spread strategy of going long on the 06 contract and short on the 09 contract is recommended. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [24] Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.66% to $2,655.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai zinc 2506 contract rose 0.04% to 22,260 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1,863 lots to 228,300 lots. [26] - In the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 and 22,955 yuan per ton. Due to the arrival of long-term contracts and the inflow of imported zinc, the spot premium was lowered, but the downstream remained on the sidelines, and the spot trading volume did not improve. [26] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [26] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [26] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Affected by the macro situation, zinc prices may rebound. However, under the bearish fundamental situation, shorting on rallies is still recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [30] Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 1.69% to $1,985.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai lead 2506 contract rose 0.54% to 16,880 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 1,601 lots to 69,600 lots. [32] - In the spot market, the price of SMM1 lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The offers of refineries in Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong were at a discount to the SMM1 lead price. As the lead price stabilized, holders increased the discount to sell, and downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed. The regional trading volume in the spot market improved relatively. [32] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [33] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [33] - An intermediate and large-scale secondary lead refinery in East China stopped production due to raw material shortages and loss pressure, affecting the output by about 200 tons per day. A small secondary lead refinery in East China postponed its restart plan to mid-to-late May due to the poor market trend. [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices are expected to remain volatile. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [33] Nickel Market Review - On Friday, the LME nickel price rose by $275 to $15,850 per ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 642 tons to 197,670 tons, and the LME nickel 0-3 spread was -$183.02 per ton. The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose by 2,540 yuan to 126,200 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 536 lots. [35] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan to 2,300 yuan per ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan per ton, and the premium of electrolytic nickel increased by 150 yuan to 150 yuan per ton. [35] Important Information - Talon Metals discovered a high-grade nickel sample with a nickel content of 12.65% near Tamarack, Minnesota, along with copper, gold, and platinum group metals, marking a significant breakthrough in its exploration for supplying battery-grade nickel to Tesla. [35] - PT QMB New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. restarted, with a current capacity utilization rate of about 70% - 80%. [35] - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [36] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro sentiment. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Consider a double-selling strategy within the range. [40] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2506 contract rose by 55 yuan to 12,775 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 1,721 lots. [42] - In the spot market, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel was between 12,650 and 12,900 yuan per ton, and the price of hot-rolled stainless steel was between 12,500 and 12,600 yuan per ton. [42] Important Information - In April 2025, the total export of stainless steel sheets and finished products from Taiwan, China was 74,500 tons, a decrease of 12.1% month-on-month. [42] - On May 8, Mexico launched an anti-dumping sunset review investigation on stainless steel sinks (weighing no more than 8 kg)原产于 China. [42] - In May, the planned production volume of domestic stainless steel crude steel was 3.619 million tons, a decrease of 78,900 tons or 2.13% month-on-month and an increase of 74,700 tons or 2.11% year-on-year. [42] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term trading should be cautious and wait for opportunities. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [43] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Last week, the main contract of the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 8,205 yuan per ton. [46] - The spot prices of some grades of industrial silicon continued to decline. Due to weak downstream demand and only rigid procurement, manufacturers were forced to lower the spot prices after the decline in the futures prices. [46] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [47] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short after a price rebound, and exit the short position after large-scale production cuts by manufacturers. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider a reverse spread strategy for Si2511 and Si2512. [49] Polysilicon Market Review - Last

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall rare earth prices have declined due to weak demand expectations stemming from the trade war, while heavy rare earth prices remain stable due to export controls providing price support [1][3] - Copper prices increased by 1.15% to $9,360 per ton on LME, and 1.71% to ¥77,400 per ton on SHFE during the week [2] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.20% to $2,437.50 per ton on LME, and 1.70% to ¥20,000 per ton on SHFE [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - MP Materials, the only rare earth mine in the U.S., has ceased exports of rare earth concentrates to China, which may lead to a further contraction in global praseodymium and neodymium supply, supporting their prices [1][3] - The first quarter copper production of Anglo American Resources fell by 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tons, primarily due to a decline in Chilean output [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 658,000 tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - Gold prices fell by 3.05% to $3,300.20 per ounce, influenced by economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.9% to ¥70,100 per ton, while lithium hydroxide average price fell by 0.31% to ¥74,100 per ton [5] - Nickel prices on LME increased by 0.9% to $15,880 per ton, supported by rising costs due to new regulations in Indonesia [6]