1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Core Viewpoint - The alumina export from Fujian Province has significantly increased due to advancements in production technology, achieving a remarkable growth rate and gaining international recognition [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, Fujian Province exported alumina worth 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 796.2%, ranking second in the country for export value [1] - ASEAN is the largest market for Fujian's alumina exports, accounting for 220 million yuan, or 59.8% of the total alumina export value [1] - Exports to India reached 140 million yuan, a significant increase from no exports in the same period last year, making up 39.4% of the total [1] Group 2: Export Contributors - State-owned enterprises are the main contributors to Fujian's alumina exports, with a total export value of 360 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 803.8% and accounting for 99.1% of the province's total alumina exports [1] - Private enterprises also showed strong performance, with exports increasing by 406.7% [1] Group 3: Supportive Measures - Fuzhou Customs is enhancing services for enterprises by advancing smart customs initiatives and implementing a "report, inspect, and release" model to improve customs efficiency [1] - The customs authority is actively engaging with enterprises to identify challenges in overseas market expansion and providing tailored policy guidance to help them capture international orders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend in July revolves around the theme of "anti-involution," with the non-ferrous metal sector showing significant gains, particularly in response to government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the non-ferrous index achieved a growth rate of 5.7%, ranking 8th among all industries, with small metals and energy metals performing exceptionally well [2]. - The central government's focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to drive improvements in product quality and industry standards [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Context - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need for regulatory measures to combat disordered competition and promote high-quality development [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, on July 18, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reform Analysis - The analysis of supply-side structural reforms indicates that the non-ferrous index's performance is closely tied to policy announcements, with historical data showing significant correlations between policy implementation and index fluctuations [2][3]. - The current "anti-involution" movement is set against a backdrop of global restructuring, aiming not only for price stabilization but also for sustainable high-quality growth [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Insights - Japan's experience with anti-involution reforms in the cement industry serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of industry consolidation and capacity coordination to enhance market efficiency [3][4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the current anti-involution efforts may lead to increased mergers and collaborations within the industry, potentially raising market concentration and fostering high-quality development [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply is generally stable as Shunda is preparing for复产, but the spot price of alumina declined last week. The domestic alumina market is slightly oversupplied, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weak trend [1][2][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The transportation restrictions in northern regions due to the parade and the seasonal constraints in the south supported the ore prices. The impact of mine shutdowns and the rainy season in Guinea on the spot market is gradually emerging. Shunda is preparing for复产, and 4.054 million tons of new ore arrived during the period [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The trading atmosphere was light, and the import window was not fully opened. The industry profit is acceptable, leading to an increased willingness of enterprises to operate at full capacity. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons compared to last week, with an operating rate of 83.5% [2][12] - **Demand**: The domestic demand for alumina increased, with the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises rising. The overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was more stable, while the inventory of some local alumina enterprises increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 26,075 tons compared to last week. The domestic futures price continued to show a weak trend [14] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded overseas on August 21, with the destination being Malaysia, and the CIF price was $386 per ton [15] - In July 2025, China's net export of alumina reached 104,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to July was 1.179 million tons [15] - In July, China's single - month import volume of bauxite reached 20.063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It covers the spot prices of alumina in various domestic provinces, the import price of alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [35][37][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 山西矿石政策传言影响不大， 氧化铝供应继续缓慢恢复 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 8 月 17 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。此前市场传言山西省调整铝土矿管 理政策，但主要涉及陶瓷土等名义开发铝土矿的矿山，这些矿山 多数已处于停产状态。河南地区延续检查严苛，矿山开工率不足。 南方受雨季以及台风影响，防城港、钦州等港口短暂关闭，影响 进口铝土矿卸船量减少。进口方面，市场传出的成交价格区间在 73-76 美元/干吨，价差主要源于品质差异。下游工厂目前矿石 储备相对充足，若无刚性需求，便不会进厂采购。博法地区发货 量呈下降态势，志诚矿业已获许从顺达码头发运矿石，但每月发 货量或仅为一艘海岬型船。顺达延续停产，与几内亚政府协商商 议中，矿区及发运仍处于停工状态。期内新到矿石 340.7 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina futures prices was driven by news from Shanxi Province regarding adjustments in mining rights, but the market has since cooled down, leading to a decline in prices as speculative sentiment wanes [1][2]. Supply Side - Shanxi's decision aims to enhance the protection of strategic mineral resources, including bauxite, by centralizing mining rights management [1]. - China's bauxite supply has been decreasing annually due to reduced mineral resources and stricter mining controls, leading to increased imports by local alumina companies to maintain production [1][2]. - Recent elections in Guinea have led to a relaxation of aluminum ore export policies, which is expected to increase overseas ore supply [2]. - Domestic alumina production capacity is growing, but there is a regional imbalance in output, with higher production in the north compared to the south [2][3]. - As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.4 million tons, resulting in an operating rate of 82.23% [2]. Demand Side - The demand for alumina is expected to weaken as the replenishment of raw materials and inventory reduction slows down, coupled with limited growth in demand for casting aluminum alloys [2][3]. - Inventory levels for alumina are rising, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina delivery warehouse inventory increasing from under 5,000 tons to around 40,000 tons recently [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for alumina are under pressure, leading to weak price performance [3]. - The increase in registered warehouse receipts for alumina in August may alleviate previous tightness in the market, but bearish sentiment persists due to expectations of weak future prices [3][4]. - Despite the bearish outlook, factors such as the Shanxi mining rights news and stable overseas ore prices may limit the downside for alumina futures in the short term [3][4]. - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, fluctuating around cost levels, influenced by seasonal demand and potential supply adjustments [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].