Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant reforms and innovations undertaken by Fangchenggang City, focusing on practical measures that address the urgent needs of the community and businesses, leading to high-quality development and improved public satisfaction. Group 1: Reform Initiatives - Fangchenggang City has launched 117 "small but beautiful" micro-reform initiatives since 2025, covering various sectors to benefit the public, enterprises, and grassroots [3] - The medical insurance department has reduced the approval time for outpatient chronic disease treatment qualifications from 18 working days to as fast as 1 working day, benefiting over 1,300 insured patients [3] - The forestry department has established an online and offline dual-channel for logging permits, reducing the average processing time from 10 working days to 1 working day, improving efficiency by 90% [3] Group 2: Economic Development - The city has achieved a significant increase in industrial output, with the industrial output value of the Dongxing Industrial Park nearly doubling since its establishment, and the total foreign trade import and export volume reaching 25.938 billion yuan, showing a notable year-on-year growth [5] - The smart factory output accounts for 77.5% of the total industrial output, with the establishment of the first national aluminum oxide industry model and the first intelligent detection line for steel in the region [5] - The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone has been approved, with expected exports exceeding 12 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Service Innovation - Fangchenggang City has implemented a "project steward" model to provide full-cycle support for projects, ensuring that projects can start immediately after land acquisition [7] - The customs has introduced a "1+1+N" smart inspection model, reducing the inspection time for imported mineral products by over 50%, saving enterprises more than 100 million yuan annually [8] - The city has established a mechanism for enterprise demands and departmental responses, resulting in a significant increase in new registered business entities, with a growth rate of 8.68% compared to the end of 2023, the highest in the region [8] Group 4: Healthcare and Industry - The establishment of a service system consisting of a service station and two centers has facilitated the rapid development of the medical device industry, increasing the number of production enterprises from 3 to 40 [6] - The nuclear power company has achieved 100% localization of nuclear power equipment, with an installed capacity exceeding 9.4 million kilowatts, enhancing the resilience and strength of the regional industrial chain [6] Group 5: Overall Impact - The reforms in Fangchenggang City have led to a GDP growth of 7% in the first three quarters of 2025, leading the region, with 23 indicators showing growth rates at the forefront of the region [8] - The city has transformed its reform approach from "government-led" to "enterprise-driven," fostering a collaborative environment for development [9] - The practical reforms have significantly improved service efficiency and public satisfaction, demonstrating the effectiveness of the city's reform strategies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment gradually resumed, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mining area is expected to cause the ore price to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea's ores. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, increasing the market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies in the future. However, the continuous rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting sector, downward - moving cost support, and the delivery pressure of expired warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, as the cost - effectiveness of chasing long positions is not high. If there are no actual production cut actions, opportunities can be awaited to arrange short positions in the near - term contracts at high prices. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton, and key attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [12]. - **Spot Price**: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [12]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively. As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [12]. - **Mineral End**: After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [13]. - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [13]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [13]. - **Demand Side**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot End - **Spot Price**: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [20]. - **Futures Price**: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [23]. 3.3 Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: In December, the domestic ore prices in various regions remained stable. As of December 31, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 66 dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 67 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [28]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 469.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 5521 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month. In November 2025, the bauxite import was 1511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.34% and a month - on - month increase of 9.76%. The total import in the first eleven months of 2025 was 18651 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.44% [30][32]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In November 2025, China imported 1071 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 33.84% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The cumulative import from Guinea in the first eleven months of 2025 was 13813 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.01%. The shipment recovered after the rainy season [35]. - **Bauxite Port Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the bauxite shipment volume of major countries around the world rebounded to the highest level of the year. The latest data of China's bauxite port inventory was 2602 tons, with a slight decrease in inventory but still abundant reserves. In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 78 tons, reaching a total of 5329 tons, still at a high level in the past five years, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 27 tons in November, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 47 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [38][40]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Alumina Production**: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% [44]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity in 2026**: The total new production capacity in China in 2026 is expected to be 1340 tons, with 580 tons in the first quarter, 240 tons in the second quarter, 120 tons in the third quarter, and 400 tons in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Overseas Alumina Production Plan**: According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [47]. - **Alumina Production Profit**: As of December 31, the alumina spot price continued to decline, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. However, due to the simultaneous decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and bauxite at the cost end, alumina plants did not experience deep losses. According to the alumina spot price on December 31, the current production profit in Guangxi could reach 120 yuan/ton; relying on coastal advantages and low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong were - 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using Guinea ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses of 150 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [49]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [53]. - **Alumina Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 31, the FOB price of Australia decreased by 4 dollars/ton to 308 dollars/ton compared with the end of November, and the import profit and loss was - 83 yuan/ton. The current import window was closed [56]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 4055 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [61]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Rate**: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [64]. - **Alumina Balance Sheet**: The report provides the alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on supply, demand, import, and export [65]. 3.7 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively [70]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [72].

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed significant market movements in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, leading to record price increases for gold and silver [3][4]. Copper Market - In late November to December 2025, copper prices surged, reaching historical highs of $12,960 per ton on the LME and over ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai [5]. - The copper supply faced constraints due to structural issues, including declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside natural disasters [5]. - Demand for copper remained robust, driven by the dual forces of new energy and AI, leading to a three-phase price increase throughout the year [5]. - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests maintaining a focus on copper until mid-year, then diversifying into both copper and aluminum investments [5]. Aluminum Market - In early November 2025, aluminum prices rose sharply, driven by a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of capital from copper to aluminum [9]. - The rise in aluminum prices was supported by a tight supply situation and a growing belief in aluminum's long-term potential as a substitute for copper [9]. - The outlook for aluminum remains bullish, with expectations of a widening global primary aluminum deficit by 2026 [9]. Alumina Market - In July 2025, alumina prices experienced a notable increase despite a backdrop of oversupply, influenced by delayed market responses and macroeconomic sentiment [11]. - The market dynamics indicated a potential for further price declines in 2026, driven by cost pressures and competitive market conditions [11]. Zinc Market - In the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc prices began to rise due to domestic supply shortages and a shift in market dynamics towards replenishing inventories [13]. - The zinc market is transitioning from a bear market to a structural bull market, with expectations of a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [13]. Gold Market - From January to April 2025, gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, reaching $3,500 per ounce [17]. - The latter part of 2025 saw gold prices peak at $4,381 per ounce, driven by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and economic instability [22]. Silver Market - In late 2025, silver prices broke through a significant resistance level, reaching $80 per ounce, supported by high trading volumes and low domestic inventories [23]. - The price dynamics were characterized by strong investor interest and significant deviations from equilibrium price levels [23].

Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

Report Title - Market Game Intensifies, Copper Price Reaches 100,000 - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.12.29 [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Core Views Copper - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [3]. - Fundamental: Global copper inventories are shifting to the US market, and there is still an expectation of supply tightness. High - priced copper suppresses short - term demand, but long - term demand from emerging fields like AI may be a breakout point [3]. - Overall: The medium - term bullish logic for copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term attention on macro sentiment and capital flow disturbances [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [5]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4.439 million tons with a slight increase. December is the traditional off - season, but consumption in industries like automotive, power, and electronics is resilient, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [5]. - Overall: With little change in fundamentals and the market trading on the Fed's rate - cut expectation, aluminum prices may remain high [5]. Alumina - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [6]. - Fundamental: As of December 25, the national metallurgical alumina installed capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 88.085 million tons/year with a flat weekly operating rate of 79.85%. Alumina plants are continuously accumulating inventory [6]. - Overall: The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, but an article from the National Development and Reform Commission boosts market sentiment, and the rebound situation should be monitored [6]. Report Recommendations Copper - For the SHFE Copper 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 105,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 95,000 yuan/ton [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - For the SHFE Aluminum 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 22,800 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Alumina - For the Alumina 2605 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Weekly Market Performance - Provided the week - on - week cumulative price change statistics for various metals from December 22 - 26 [11]. Weekly News - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, emphasizing management and layout for resource - constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting [12]. - The China Copper Industry Joint Procurement Group (CSPT) stopped setting a guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026, reflecting a new stage in the bargaining power game between domestic smelters and miners [12]. - Jiangxi Copper announced an offer to acquire SolGold plc, valuing the target company at about £867 million [12]. - Gree Electric stated it has no immediate plan to replace copper with aluminum in air - conditioners due to performance differences [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the approved storage capacities of several alumina delivery warehouses and added a new storage point [12]. 02 Macro Analysis Domestic Market - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of these enterprises decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. Overseas Market - The initial estimate of the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. After the GDP data release, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased [16]. 03 Non - ferrous Market Analysis Copper - **Spot Market**: Provided data on copper premiums, refined - scrap copper price differences, and other indicators [21]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of SHFE copper futures, options, and international copper futures [24]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed the price differences between US and LME copper, LME copper premiums, and the relationship with the US dollar index [27]. - **Market Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE copper, Shanghai bonded area copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [30]. - **Downstream Consumption**: As of December 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 14.96% week - on - week, and the domestic major refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate was 60.73%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points [34]. Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Provided data on A00 aluminum ingot premiums, aluminum alloy price differences, and social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum [36]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of aluminum futures, options, and alumina futures and options [39]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed LME aluminum premiums, the relationship with the US dollar index, and LME aluminum total inventory [42]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 60.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 percentage points [44]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of December 26, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week to a new high for the year [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: Analyzed the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and its relationship with raw material prices [51]. Alumina - **Spot Market**: Provided data on alumina prices in different regions, the average spot price index, and raw material prices [54]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the relationship between alumina inventory futures, futures closing prices, and the prices of related products [57]. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of December 25, the alumina supply was stable, and the demand slightly increased due to the new production capacity release of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 25, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,940.91 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 227.82 yuan/ton [61].

基本面来看，矿端国产矿供应平稳，氧化铝企业采购施压，部分地区价格微跌。进口矿方面，几内亚前 期停采矿企复采，新建、国营矿企陆续开采，后续供应预期增加，氧化铝市场将维持过剩。需求端，氧 化铝开工仍处于偏高水平，供应充足，下游电解铝开工虽小幅提升，但需求增量有限。仓单库存16.1万 吨，周内减少1.9万吨。现货市场方面，元旦假期前，持货商有清库存压力，市场货源供应宽松。下游 电解铝企业存在节前备货补货需求，市场交投较为兴旺，在阶段性需求释放带动下市场交投活跃，今日 全天交易量继续增加。 整体来看，政策面利多提振氧化铝市场情绪，且期价处于成本下方、价值洼地，低位做多意愿集中。但 基本面过剩现状及预期未改，短时多为情绪反弹，后续上涨受限，建议谨慎追涨，关注供应端政策及减 产情况。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月29日讯，今日氧化铝承压震荡，主力月2605合约走势承压，盘中维持区间震荡运行姿 态；截止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2751元，收涨3元，涨幅0.11%；15个合约累计成 交1702712手，比前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise further due to the marginal easing of liquidity in the US financial market, the continuous rise of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar, and the tight supply of copper mines, but the accumulation of inventory may suppress the upward trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to continue rising under the influence of the continuous rise of precious metals and the increase of copper price, despite the current high price and the off - season demand [4][5] - The lead price is driven by the marginal contraction of the domestic secondary lead supply and extremely low visible inventory, but the price shock caused by the departure of long - position funds in precious metals should be vigilant [7][8] - The zinc industry's fundamentals are still weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to the high sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors [9][10] - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, and it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] - The lithium carbonate price is affected by factors such as the change of spot pricing method and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [18][19][20] - The alumina price is affected by factors such as the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction [22][23] - The stainless steel price may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25][26] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strong cost and supply disruptions [28][29] Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME was closed. Driven by supply - side disturbances and the rise of precious metals, the copper price continued to strengthen, and the Shanghai copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark. The weekly inventory of SHFE copper increased by 16,000 tons to 112,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in the Shanghai and Guangdong regions expanded, and the downstream operating rate decreased [1] - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to rise further, but the impact of inventory accumulation on the upward trend should be noted. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M, it is 12,400 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm macro - sentiment, the high prices of precious metals and copper, the aluminum price fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58% to 22,405 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased by 20,000 to 674,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount in the East China region was 190 yuan/ton, and the year - end spot trading was still weak [4] - **Strategy View**: The current high aluminum price and the off - season demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the low inventory pattern of LME aluminum remains unchanged. The aluminum price is expected to rise further. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,920 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 1.37% to 17,548 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 11,600 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [7] - **Strategy View**: The primary lead supply is loose, and the secondary lead supply contracts marginally. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the domestic visible inventory is at an absolute low and continues to decline. The lead price is expected to be strong, but the price shock caused by precious metals should be vigilant [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.49% to 23,192 yuan/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,200 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory declines, and the zinc smelting profit stabilizes. The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to sector sentiment [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading is light [11][12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin, it is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 126,750 yuan/ton, up 1.10%. The spot premium of various brands was stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared due to the expected tax on cobalt in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract, it is 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.56% to 120,913 yuan, up 15.08% for the week. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The LC2601 contract closed at 130,520 yuan, up 5.67%, and up 17.16% for the week. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [18][19] - **Strategy View**: The change of spot pricing method by Tianqi Lithium and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises are beneficial to the restoration of spot valuation. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 127,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the alumina index rose 5.23% to 2,748 yuan/ton. The position increased by 25,200 to 644,900 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 160,800 tons. The ore price was stable [22] - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of the AXIS mine. The over - capacity in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 11,745 to 182,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 607 tons. The social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% [25][26] - **Strategy View**: Driven by the Indonesian nickel ore quota plan in 2026, the stainless steel price continued to rise last week. The inventory decreased, and the cost was supported. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose first and then fell. The main AD2602 contract rose 0.21% to 21,390 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 21,700 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 70,400 tons. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 300 tons to 46,300 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The short - term price is expected to be strong [29]