1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market has a weak fundamental situation with high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Although the price has rebounded recently, the upward pressure on the market remains significant. Traders are advised to adjust their strategies according to market changes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Policy Trends - On December 12, the head of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council studied the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference emphasized that central enterprises should focus on promoting new - quality productivity, strengthen technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading, and avoid "involution - style" competition [2] 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Recently, the market fundamentals have been weak, with futures and spot prices falling. After the call against involution, most low - priced varieties rebounded rapidly on Friday night, with the main alumina contract rebounding by over 4% by the morning [3] - The fundamental contradictions lie in high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Supply has limited reduction due to short - term factors; inventory is rising as demand growth is limited; cost has not formed good support as raw material prices are weak [3] 3.3 Summary and Strategy - Fundamentally, the market is in a loss situation, with high upstream operating capacity and a strong inventory accumulation trend. The spot price is under pressure, but the near - month warehouse receipts are expected to decline [4] - During the previous decline period, strategies such as short - selling at high prices, monthly reverse arbitrage, and selling put options performed well. Currently, traders are advised to shorten the trading period, adjust positions, and convert some short positions to selling call options. If there are significant marginal changes, trading opportunities such as call options and monthly positive arbitrage should be considered [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Although short - term bullish sentiment in the copper market has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may gradually turn into a sideways trend [3] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in a wide range in the short term [8] - After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [10] - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see [16][18] - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be adjusted in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to fundamental dynamics and wait and see [21] - It is recommended to wait and see for alumina in the short term. Focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] - The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [30] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**：Friday, U.S. stocks pulled back, and concerns about the AI technology bubble increased. LME copper 3M contract closed down 2.37% to $11,552/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,550 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 50 to 165,900 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined. In China, SHFE weekly inventories increased slightly [2] - **策略观点**：The Fed's interest - rate cut and the restart of Treasury bond purchases have made liquidity expectations marginally looser. The domestic central economic work conference set a positive policy tone. Although short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn into a sideways trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 90,800 - 92,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME copper 3M is 11,450 - 11,750 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **行情资讯**：The weakening of U.S. AI technology stocks intensified market concerns, and aluminum prices declined. On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 0.69% to $2,875/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,775 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 16,000 to 676,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased slightly to 69,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories declined [4] - **策略观点**：Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at low levels in the same period of previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and loose macro policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,600 - 22,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% to 17,134 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to $1,984.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 130 tons to 2,290 tons [7] - **策略观点**：Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead has declined marginally, the operating rate of secondary lead has continued to rise, and the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally. Domestic lead ingot social inventories remain at relatively low levels, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide - range in the short term [8] Zinc - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.68% to 23,621 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, zinc ingot social inventories decreased by 780 tons to 12,820 tons [9] - **策略观点**：Visible zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc concentrate TC continues to decline. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains [10] Tin - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 329,400 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous day. The start - up rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at a high level but lack upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the overall market trading is light. This week, the national main tin ingot social inventory was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12] - **策略观点**：Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited when downstream inventories are low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **行情资讯**：On Friday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 114,550 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron remained stable [15] - **策略观点**：Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. However, with the stabilization of nickel pig iron prices and the warming of the macro environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][18] Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 94,569 yuan, up 0.21% from the previous working day and 4.30% for the week [20] - **策略观点**：Currently, the market is divided on supply release and demand realization. In the short term, the supply - demand mismatch of domestic lithium carbonate has not been reversed. The probability of lithium prices being adjusted in a range is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 95,000 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.39% to 2,544 yuan/ton. The futures warrant on Friday was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day [23] - **策略观点**：After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine has resumed production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**：On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. Social inventories increased to 1.0636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**：The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is generally light. The supply pressure is expected to be further relieved. The stainless - steel market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation and lacking a clear direction in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**：On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy rose slightly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 0.72% to 21,115 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased by 20 tons to 4,890 tons [29] - **策略观点**：The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong support for prices. However, demand is relatively volatile, and delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation [30]

氧化铝行业分析及展望 20251210 摘要 2026 年中国氧化铝市场预计过剩 400-500 万吨，总平衡产能约为 9,100-9,200 万吨，但实际运行产能高达 9,600 万吨，下游电解铝厂库 存高企加剧供需压力，若不减产，每月过剩量约 35 万吨。 预计 2026 年 1 月起氧化铝减产将逐步兑现，部分企业可能战略性减少 40-200 万吨产能，降低开工率以缓解库存压力，长单比例下降也为减 产提供空间，1-2 月或逐步释放减产生量。 2026 年全球铝土矿供应总体充裕，中国依赖几内亚矿源，印尼、印度、 越南等地使用本地矿石，互不冲突。几内亚明年增量预计达 8,000- 10,000 吨，总体过剩至少 5,000-6,000 吨，确保市场供应充足。 铝市场核心矛盾在于新疆到期仓单转现货销售，对现货市场造成压力， 导致氧化铝价格下跌。聚生仓库成交活跃，而成通和中江仓库仓单难以 成交，盘面定价未直接反映成本估值。 短期内关注 12 月底银联盟长单价格谈判，若定价低于 70 美元/吨将压 低矿石价格至 65 美元左右，影响盘面估值区间至 2,400-2,600 元。关 注 1 月份长单转现货带来的流动性释 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on December 10, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% to 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.29% [3][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market was 1.79 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy level despite the overall market adjustment [3][5] - The technology sector remained strong, with active performance in robotics, despite the termination of a significant asset restructuring deal [5][6] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a continuous recovery, with all main contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which increased by 0.30% to 112.790 yuan [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan into the market [9] - The short-term interest rates, particularly the overnight Shibor, reached a new low since August 2023, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains; silver prices rose by 5.44% to 14,373 yuan per kilogram [9][10] - The aluminum market faced a significant decline, with prices dropping by 3.17% due to supply and demand dynamics [10] - The overall performance of industrial commodities remained weak, with several products hitting yearly lows, suggesting insufficient demand [12] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment themes, including dividend stocks due to attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [11] - The current market environment is characterized by a balance between policy signals and year-end liquidity, suggesting a diversified investment approach across technology, dividends, and cyclical resources [11][12]

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价下行， 氧化铝供应小幅压降 [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价下行，氧化铝供应小幅压降 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区国产矿价格微调，随着进 口矿供应宽松幅度增加，价格下行压力加剧，国产铝土矿价格也 存在下调压力。进口方面，几内亚矿主流报价区间为 70-71 美元 /干吨，市场传出几内亚铝土矿现货报价降至 68 美元/干吨的消 息。周末时期再传顺达及 GIC 矿山复产消息，目前两家矿企已 在做复产准备，但尚未有具体复产时间，预期于 2026 年元旦前 后。期内新到矿石 380.0 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 291.8 万吨， 澳大利亚资源 71.4 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 26 美元/吨，价格明显上行。 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2780-2820 元/吨，较上周跌 25 元/吨；国产加 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国氧化铝行业发展模式分析及未来前景规划报告》 近一年中国氧化铝出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国氧化铝出口数量为18万吨，同比增长3.2%，出口金额为0.81亿 美元，同比下降21%。 ...

12月5日，氧化铝期货延续下行趋势，主力合约价格跌破2600关口，已连续五个月下跌，创下上市以来新低。 据调研了解，新疆地区招标采购1万吨氧化铝现货，中标价格为3005元/吨(到厂价)，北方地区货源。同时，该 集团旗下云南电解铝厂招标采购0.5万吨，中标价格为2835元/吨(出厂价)，百色地区货源。 12月4日当周，氧化铝港口库存录得14.1万吨，较上一周减少1.5万吨，减少幅度达9.62%；最近一个月，氧化铝 港口库存累计减少3.6万吨，减少幅度为20.34%。 国投安信期货指出，氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升，供应过剩格局难改。本 周现货招标成交继续下调，现货指数延续下跌。当前晋豫现金成本尚有利润，形成规模减产前氧化铝弱势运行 继续探底。 | 今开: 2615.0 | 昨结:2620.0 | 最高: 2618.0 | 最低:2569.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 均价:2589.1 | 今结: -- | 涨停: 2803.0 | 跌停:2436.0 | | 昨收:2615.0 | 日増仓: 4880.0 | 成交量: 174787.0 | 持命: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 4 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.06%，收报 3875.79 点；深 证成指涨 0.40%，收报 13006.72 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 3067.48 点。沪深两市成交额仅有 15490 亿，较昨 日缩量 1210 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 4 日震荡整理。收盘 4546.57，环比上涨 15.52。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 4 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1704.6，环比上涨 33.6。 12 月 4 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1143.8 元，环比上涨 21.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭:吨焦平均利润受上下游让利好转，开工略有回升，供给环比增加。上周铁水日均产量 234.68 万吨，环 比-1.6 万吨，铁水季节性下滑的后，刚需走弱，投机性需求随着煤价近期的补跌回落，上游焦化厂累库，港口 去库，下游累库，总库存基本持平。 客服产品系列•日评 焦煤：山西中硫主焦 1378，环比-3，蒙 ...