1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal boosts the expectation of stable growth, and the improvement of macro - expectations and supply - side disturbances drive the prices of basic metals. In the short and medium term, copper leads the rise of basic metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise due to potential policy stimulus and supply disturbances [1]. - For different metals, copper is expected to be volatile and strong; alumina is expected to be volatile; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term; zinc is expected to be volatile with a downward trend in the long term; lead is expected to be volatile and strong; nickel is expected to be volatile in the short term; stainless steel is expected to be range - bound; tin is expected to be volatile and strong [6][10][13][16][18][21][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: The resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations makes copper prices trend strong. The macro - sentiment recovers and the trade tensions ease, and the risk appetite of the market increases. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the production of electrolytic copper decreases. The terminal demand is in the peak season, but the inventory reduction is not obvious, and the high price restricts the demand [6][7][8]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental pressure still exists, but the valuation enters the low - range. The high - cost production capacity has a certain degree of reduction, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The ore price is slightly loose, and the price is under pressure. However, more funds are starting to focus on this variety, and the price fluctuation may increase [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [9][10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro - sentiment is repeated, and the aluminum price fluctuates narrowly. Overseas, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the 15th Five - Year Plan in China gives positive policy signals. The domestic replacement production capacity is gradually put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the terminal demand is stable, and the inventory reduction slows down [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short term, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12][13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply - side policy is unclear, and the demand falls short of expectations, resulting in a small reduction in production of some enterprises. The demand has marginal improvement, and the inventory and warehouse receipts continue to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatile at a high level in the short term and volatile in the medium term [14]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The macro - optimistic expectation is gradually alleviated. The Sino - US economic and trade relations show a signal of relaxation, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelters' profitability is good and the production willingness is strong. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is generally expected [16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile, with a downward trend in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 is still high, and the lead price may remain volatile and strong. The spot premium slightly decreases, and the supply is slightly less than expected after the holidays. The demand is in the peak season, and the cost is high. The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 increases significantly [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [17][18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The LME nickel inventory exceeds 250,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuates. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weak. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, the production of intermediate products recovers, the price of nickel salts slightly weakens, and the inventory accumulates significantly [18][21]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to fall, and the stainless - steel market is weak. The price of nickel iron weakens, and the production of stainless steel increases in September. The social inventory and warehouse receipts decrease slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure may appear again after the peak season [22]. - **Outlook**: Range - bound in the short term [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The SHFE tin inventory slightly declines, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of tin is restricted, the production in Wa State may be postponed, and the supply in Indonesia is expected to be tight. The processing fee of tin concentrates will remain low. The operating rate of refined tin increases, and the inventory reduction slows down [23][24]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [23][24]. 3.2. Market Monitoring - **Copper**: In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 50,500 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.31%, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production increased by 1.0955 million tons, an increase of 12.22%. As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country increased by 2,900 tons to 184,500 tons [7]. - **Alumina**: On October 28, the spot price of alumina in some regions was stable or slightly decreased. An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased alumina at a price of 3,040 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton lower than the previous period. The alumina warehouse receipts were 223,372 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: On October 28, the SMM AOO average price was 21,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China increased by 8,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 100 tons [12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On October 28, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The factory - to - factory price of Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 48,836 tons, an increase of 118 tons from the previous day [14][15]. - **Zinc**: On October 28, the spot price of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin was at a discount to the main contract. As of October 28, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last Thursday [15]. - **Lead**: On October 28, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 lead ingot price was 17,150 - 17,300 yuan, with an average price of 17,225 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,600 tons compared with last Thursday [17]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, the LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons from the previous day; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons from the previous day [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day. On October 28, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract [22]. - **Tin**: On October 28, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,700 tons; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 43 tons to 5,609 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 5,465 lots to 70,911 lots. The average price of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 284,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On October 28, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2242.59, a decrease of 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, a decrease of 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, a decrease of 0.64%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2480.06, with a daily decline of 1.17%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.98%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.44% [149][151].

产品方面，公司核心产品铜、锌、铅产量合计达61.2万吨，同比增长4.78%。其中，阴极铜产量29.61万 吨，同比增长7.93%；电铅产量1.96万吨，增幅达34.27%。贵金属板块表现尤为突出，黄金产量1.91 吨，同比增长56%；白银产量435.62吨，同比增长20.37%。硫酸等副产品产量也保持稳健增长。产销协 同效应增强，主要产品销量同比均有不同程度提升，尤其是黄金销量同比增长102.73%，显示出公司市 场拓展与产品去库存能力进一步增强。 10月28日晚间，白银有色（601212）发布2025年第三季度报告。报告显示，公司今年前三季度整体经营 稳中向好，主要产品产销量实现稳步增长，营业收入与利润水平显著提升，展现出较强的盈利能力和经 营韧性。 2025年1—9月，公司实现营业收入726.43亿元，同比增长5.21%；其中第三季度单季营业收入达280.84 亿元，同比大幅增长70.72%。利润总额方面，前三季度累计实现9.83亿元，同比增长30.14%；第三季度 单季利润总额为5.50亿元，同比增幅高达1018.02%，凸显出公司主营业务在价格回升与销量增长双重驱 动下的强劲复苏势头。 随着全球经济绿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall supply - demand differences are not significant [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market performance: Copper prices closed slightly lower at night. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a supply - demand deficit in the global copper market [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc prices closed slightly higher at night. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different, with domestic zinc prices potentially weaker than foreign ones [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,390 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum's was 21,305 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; zinc's was 22,310 yuan/ton with a basis of - 105 yuan/ton; nickel's was 122,060 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton; lead's was 17,525 yuan/ton with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; tin's was 286,150 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: Copper's LME 3 - month forward closing price is not provided, with a spot premium of - 23.84 dollars/ton and an inventory of 136,350 tons (a daily decrease of 575 tons); aluminum had a spot premium of 3.28 dollars/ton and an inventory of 473,125 tons (a daily decrease of 4,550 tons); zinc had a spot premium of 212.89 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,600 tons (a daily increase of 2,900 tons); nickel had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 15,335 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 205.18 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 250,854 tons (no daily change); lead had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 2,024 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 33.80 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 235,375 tons (a daily decrease of 4,375 tons); tin had a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,750 tons (a daily increase of 30 tons) [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the weekend Sino-US economic and trade talks had a positive outcome. The market should focus on the results of the month - end Sino - US leaders' meeting. After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation where weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations coexist, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, the decline in gold and silver prices is a "correction in the upward trend" rather than a "trend reversal". It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiation progress, supply disruptions, and low inventory [13][15]. - For black building materials, the steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. The iron ore price will oscillate. The black sector is not pessimistic, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [32][34][41]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. Some are recommended to wait and see, and some are expected to stop falling or rise [54][60]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure; the sugar price is expected to decline, etc. [76][85]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank explores liquidity - providing mechanisms for non - bank institutions; the CSRC optimizes the QFII system and strengthens the protection of small and medium - sized investors [2]. - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different base ratios for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The technology sector is the main line, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The national industrial enterprise profits increased in September. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic growth in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver declined. The market's confidence in global central banks' short - term gold purchases weakened. The US 9 - month CPI data was lower than expected [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in gold and silver prices is a correction. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The downstream procurement sentiment was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts, and the tight supply of copper raw materials, the copper price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was weak. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventory are expected to drive the aluminum price to rise further [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation rate slowed down [16]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the positive market atmosphere and structural risks [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell slightly. The lead ore inventory decreased, and the lead ingot social and factory inventories continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term due to positive market atmosphere and structural risks [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price oscillated at a low level. The nickel ore price was stable and slightly strong, and the nickel iron price was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops enough, consider building long positions [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply was still tight due to the slow recovery of the Myanmar tin mine. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The tin price is expected to rise in the short term due to the tight supply - demand balance and improving market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price rose. The MMLC index and the LC2601 contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental situation of carbonate lithium has improved, but pay attention to the pressure from hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [25]. - **Strategy**: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The social inventory increased, and the raw material prices were stable [27]. - **Strategy**: A steel mill's planned maintenance may relieve the inventory pressure, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated. The contract price rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The registered warehouse receipts and positions decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment increased, the iron water production decreased, and the port inventory increased [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore price will oscillate due to weak fundamentals and positive macro - environment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price rose, and the inventory increased slightly [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The glass price is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The prices are in the oscillation range [39]. - **Strategy**: The black sector is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly, and the polysilicon price rose significantly. The supply and demand of both have different situations [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to consolidate in the short term. The polysilicon price may improve in the future, but pay attention to the actual implementation [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. The views of bulls and bears are different. The tire enterprise inventory is not high [48][49][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. Consider partial hedging [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased [53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy later [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain import situation and high port inventory [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price in many places rose. The inventory increased slightly [56][57]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand situation has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The supply was wide, the inventory increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: The benzene styrene price may stop falling temporarily due to high - level inventory reduction [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost decreased, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price rose. The supply was high, the inventory decreased, and the cost changed [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased slightly [65]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply may accumulate slightly, and the demand is difficult to increase. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX price rose. The load increased, the inventory increased, and the PXN decreased [67]. - **Strategy**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil price. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price rose. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [69]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high - level inventory reduction and seasonal demand [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price rose. The upstream start - up rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [71][72]. - **Strategy**: The PP price is under pressure due to high inventory and supply - demand imbalance [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price rose in many places. The supply may be limited, and the downstream acquisition enthusiasm is okay [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure. It is recommended to establish anti - arbitrage positions and short on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the market sales were average [77]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the import cost may oscillate [79][80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high domestic inventory and sufficient global supply [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil export and production data changed. The domestic oil price fell [82]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the palm oil price and wait for clearer production signals [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the gasoline price decreased [84]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter due to expected global sugar production increase [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated. The new cotton purchase price rose slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was low [86]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price may have limited upward space due to weak fundamentals [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - Electric Power Investment Energy announced a temporary board meeting on October 27, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the removal of an independent director [1] Company Summary - For the first half of 2025, Electric Power Investment Energy's revenue composition was as follows: non-ferrous metal smelting accounted for 55.85%, coal industry 31.02%, new energy power generation 7.58%, and coal-fired electricity and heat supply 5.54% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Electric Power Investment Energy was 55.7 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported profit growth across various industries for the first nine months of the year, indicating a positive trend in several sectors [1] Industry Performance Summary - The electricity and heat production and supply industry saw a profit increase of 14.4% year-on-year [1] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry experienced a profit growth of 14.0% [1] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry reported a profit rise of 12.5% [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 12.0% [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry had an 11.3% profit increase [1] - The general equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.4% growth in profits [1] - The specialized equipment manufacturing industry reported a profit increase of 6.8% [1] - The non-metallic mineral products industry experienced a profit growth of 5.1% [1] - The automobile manufacturing industry had a profit increase of 3.4% [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit [1] - The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry reduced its losses year-on-year [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry saw a decline of 4.4% [1] - The textile industry reported a profit decrease of 5.9% [1] - The oil and gas extraction industry experienced a decline of 13.3% [1] - The coal mining and washing industry faced a significant profit drop of 51.1% [1]

Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - **Trading Logic and Strategy** - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - **Smelting**: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Other Sub - sections** - **1.2 Futures Price**: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - **1.3 Price Spread**: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - **1.4 Inventory Data**: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - **1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory**: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - **2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - **2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary** - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **3.1 Global Refined Lead** - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - **3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export** - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - **3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit** - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - **3.4 Primary Lead Supply** - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - **3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit** - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - **3.6 Secondary Lead Supply** - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - **3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply** - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **4.1 Lead - Acid Battery** - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - **4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates** - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - **4.3 Automobile** - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - **4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication** - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：利好传来逢低做多 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：震荡市等待做多机会 4 | | 豆粕：大豆压榨利润继续修复 盘面逐步反弹 5 | | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格继续下跌 郑糖价格相对抗跌 5 | | 油脂板块：短期盘面震荡略偏弱 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 玉米继续上量，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 价格小幅反弹 8 | | 花生：花生油厂仍未大量收购，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 11 | | 钢材：河北开启环保限产，铁水产量继续下滑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑 上行有阻力 13 | | 铁矿：中期偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：宏观情绪带动反弹，但供需压力仍存 15 | | 贵金属：多空因素交织，关注央行周波动风险 17 | | --- | | 铜：中美达成初步共识，铜 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively on October 27, with major indices closing higher: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.26%, and ChiNext Index up 1.54%, approaching the 4000-point mark [1][3] - The total market turnover reached 1.58 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous day, with over 3700 stocks rising [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications, steel, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, with notable gains in controllable nuclear fusion, Fujian local stocks, and storage chips [3][7] - The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly active, with stocks like Antai Technology and Xiamen Tungsten hitting the daily limit, while other companies like Dongfang Tantalum and Zhongtung High-tech also saw significant increases [10][12] Notable Stocks - In the Hong Kong market, Baidu Group led the gains with a rise of over 5%, contributing to a 1.02% increase in the Hang Seng Index [3][4] - Fujian local stocks saw a collective surge, with Haixia Innovation hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Fujian Cement and Zhangzhou Development also performing strongly [7][8] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum is set to open in the afternoon of October 27, with key financial leaders expected to deliver speeches, which has generated market anticipation for potential policy announcements [5][6] Strategic Insights - Recent signals of easing tensions in US-China relations and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to enhance market risk appetite and provide a clearer growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [4][6]