Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is gradually turning rational, and the disk trends are starting to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, commodity prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the disk prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [25]. - Policy - related emotional disturbances will continue to interfere with the disk, but ultimately, prices will move closer to the fundamentals after the emotions fade, which will take some time [31]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - The central bank will focus on the supply - side in its financial policies, aiming to create effective demand with high - quality supply and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. Southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$358.76 billion [2]. - The current policy is favorable to the capital market. After recent continuous increases, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - In July, industrial added - value and social consumption showed growth, while real estate investment and new housing sales declined. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, and the central bank is maintaining a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [6]. Precious Metals - US inflation data rebounded, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding inflation. The market is highly expecting a Fed rate cut. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will significantly affect precious metal prices [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Although US inflation data rebounded, the market has strong rate - cut expectations. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the overall copper price may consolidate and wait for further macro - level drivers [10]. Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and the export data is strong, which supports the aluminum price. However, weak downstream consumption and fluctuating trade situations may cause the aluminum price to fluctuate and decline in the short - term [11]. Zinc - The zinc market is in an oversupply situation, with domestic social inventories increasing rapidly and overseas registered warehouse receipts at a low level. Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [13]. Lead - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory accumulation. Lead prices are expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, driving nickel prices to rebound slightly, but weak downstream demand may cause prices to correct [15]. Tin - The supply of tin is currently tight, and demand is weak during the off - season. As Myanmar's production resumes, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic carbonate lithium in the second half of the year, but the actual reduction in supply depends on the mining end. The current price increase may attract more supply, and investors are advised to be cautious [18]. Alumina - There are continuous disturbances in the supply of domestic and foreign ores, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state of weak demand and may continue to consolidate in the short - term [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The downstream of casting aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides some support, the upward resistance of prices is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The steel market has weak demand and insufficient demand support. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [25]. Iron Ore - Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant, but the profitability of steel mills is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. Iron ore prices may adjust slightly in the short - term [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass production is increasing, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak. In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, they will follow macro - level emotions. Soda ash production is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising, but the price center may gradually rise in the long - term [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may weaken in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The over - capacity and high - inventory problems of industrial silicon remain unresolved. Although demand provides some support in August, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The short - term increase in rubber prices is large, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally and consider band - trading strategies [38][41]. Crude Oil - Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and there is an opportunity for left - hand side layout [42]. Methanol - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - The supply of urea is relatively loose, and demand is average. The price is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities at low prices [44]. Styrene - The BZN spread of styrene is expected to repair, and port inventories are decreasing. Styrene prices may rise with the cost side [45]. PVC - The PVC market has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory is increasing. The fundamentals are weakening, and the short - term valuation may decline [49]. PTA - The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and demand needs improvement. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities with PX at low prices during the peak season [50]. p - Xylene - The load of PX is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support but limited upward space [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The supply and demand of PP are weak, and the cost side may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase in the third quarter. The market may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term, pay attention to upper - level pressure in the medium - term, and use reverse - spread strategies for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but it is currently the peak season, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly after stabilizing. In the medium - term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The USDA has reduced the soybean planting area, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans in the short - term. The import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal [58][59]. Edible Oils - The fundamentals of edible oils are supported, but the upward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly [62]. Sugar - The international sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic import supply is increasing. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - The cotton price is affected by positive news but has weak downstream consumption. In the short - term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [65].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Precious Metals**: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations, with gold and silver showing downward trends. Gold's trend strength was - 1, and silver's was also - 1 [2][7]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacked driving forces, with price fluctuations narrowing, and a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation became apparent, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][12]. - **Lead**: A decrease in LME inventory supported prices, and the trend strength was 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Traded in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Continued to converge. Alumina saw a small sideways increase, while cast aluminum alloy faced increasing pressure in the off - season. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0 [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and investors were warned of news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel were both 0 [2][26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Movement**: Domestic and international gold prices declined. For example, the closing price of Comex Gold 2510 was $3381.70, down 0.02% [5]. - **Market News**: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations. Overseas demand for US Treasuries remained resilient, and foreign investors' holdings in June reached a new high [7]. Silver - **Price Movement**: Prices declined slightly. For instance, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9204, down 0.88% [5]. - **Market News**: Similar to gold, influenced by macro - factors, with a trend strength of - 1 [7]. Base Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,060 yuan, up 0.14%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closed at $9,760, down 0.17% [9]. - **Market News**: China's July economic data showed declines in various indicators. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [9]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,505 yuan, up 0.11%. The London Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at $2,796.5, down 1.62% [12]. - **Market News**: Inventory accumulation became more obvious, and the LME cash - 3M spread decreased [12]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,850 yuan, up 0.48%. The London Lead 3M electronic disk closed at $1,981, down 0.45% [15]. - **Market News**: A decrease in LME lead inventory supported prices [15]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,820 yuan, down 0.22%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closed at $33,610, up 0.52% [19]. - **Market News**: Traded in a range, with changes in inventory and price spreads [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,770 yuan. Alumina prices showed a small sideways increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,165 yuan [23]. - **Market News**: Aluminum continued to converge, alumina was stable with a small increase, and cast aluminum alloy faced off - season pressure [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan [26]. - **Market News**: Nickel traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. There were also various industry news such as production suspensions in Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of policy stimulus. The overall risk appetite in the domestic market has increased, with short - term bullish sentiment for stocks and cautious optimism for commodities [2]. - The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term support has weakened. Black metals are expected to be weak in the short term, while non - ferrous metals and new energy metals show mixed trends. Energy and chemical products are likely to remain in a weak or narrow - range oscillation pattern. Agricultural products present complex supply - demand relationships and price trends [4][6][14][17]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US President announced significant progress with Russia, reducing global risk - aversion sentiment. US retail sales in July met expectations, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased. Domestically, July economic data slowed down and missed expectations. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy plan and the extension of the China - US tariff truce may boost consumption and reduce short - term tariff uncertainties [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like batteries, securities, and banks, the domestic stock market rose. With economic data underperforming and policy support, the short - term upward momentum has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, but beware of high - level corrections [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, precious metals oscillated weakly. Inflation data fluctuations and Fed policy uncertainties restricted the upside. Long - term prospects are positive due to monetary easing and central bank gold - buying demand [4]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The US expansion of steel and aluminum tariff scope is negative for steel billets and hot - rolled coils. Real - world demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and supply may decline further. A short - term weak - oscillation approach is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, prices rebounded slightly. With approaching important events, iron - water production may decline. Supply is under pressure, and prices may weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Manganese ore prices are rising, and some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and eager to resume production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is excessive, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [8][9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals - **Copper**: US PPI data exceeded expectations. Copper supply is expected to be stable, and domestic demand may weaken. The strong price trend may not last [10]. - **Aluminum**: The US expansion of aluminum tariffs affects global exports. Aluminum fundamentals are weakening, and mid - term upside is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term but have limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply may increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production is at a new high, raw - material support is strengthening, and inventory is shifting downstream. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production is increasing, inventory is high, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Production is expected to increase in August. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and attention should be paid to the August 19th photovoltaic enterprise symposium [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Russia talks had no substantial results. The oil market may face an oversupply situation in 2026. Short - term short positions are recommended, but beware of geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil prices are weakening, and asphalt prices are under pressure. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight supply situation in the short term and will oscillate until PTA device changes [14]. - **PTA**: Supply is restricted, demand is slightly increasing, and prices are supported but have limited upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both increase slightly, maintaining an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are driven down by sector resonance. Observe terminal orders for de - stocking [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, while the port market is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is slightly rising. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season restocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure persists, and demand shows signs of recovery. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The net short position of funds in the CBOT soybean market is increasing. A bumper harvest may be realized, but the export situation is uncertain. The price of 1000 cents per bushel is temporarily supported [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is rising in the short term, but the spot market is not following. The cost - driven logic may weaken [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Vegetable oil inventory is high and difficult to deplete, while soybean oil and palm oil show different trends. Consider the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage strategy [18]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with low trading activity and sufficient inventory in downstream enterprises. The futures market is sluggish [18]. - **Pigs**: Weekend spot prices were weak, but the decline has narrowed. Observe the performance during the late - August consumption peak [18][19].

Group 1 - The province is actively promoting industrial upgrades, increasing technological investments, advancing digital transformation, and adhering to green development principles, resulting in significant improvements in new quality productivity [1] - In the first half of this year, the invoicing amount in the chemical industry accounted for 41.8% of the petrochemical sector, while the non-ferrous metal smelting industry accounted for 23.3% of the metallurgy sector, indicating the growth of new materials in metallurgy [1] - The proportion of invoicing amounts from strategic emerging industries has increased to 28.4%, and high-tech industries have seen an increase to 4.7% [1] Group 2 - The province has made substantial investments in pollution prevention and environmental monitoring equipment, with an average annual growth of 37.3% from 2022 to 2024 [2] - The invoicing amounts for environmental technology promotion services and energy-saving technology promotion services have increased by 60.2% and 20.3% respectively [2] - New energy vehicle sales have seen an average annual growth of 109.6%, with their share of total sales rising to 40.7% in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - The province is integrating into the national unified market, with the invoicing amount from central enterprises in Liaoning growing at an average annual rate of 1.5% from 2022 to 2024 [3] - In the first half of this year, the invoicing amount from Liaoning's trade with the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta accounted for 23.2%, 20.5%, and 6.9% of total inter-provincial trade respectively [3] - The total import and export volume with countries along the Belt and Road has grown at an average annual rate of 17.2%, with exports increasing by 27% [3]

8月15日早盘，A股三大指数全线翻红，创业板指一度涨超1%。截至发稿，沪指涨0.17%，深成指涨0.55%，创业板指涨0.75%。全市场超4200只个股上 涨。 从板块上来看，PEEK材料板块涨幅居前，房地产、建材、基本金属等板块跟涨；而银行、保险、汽车等板块震荡调整。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PEEK材料 | 液冷服务器 | 炒股软件 | 电源设备 | 发电设备 | 摩托车 | 建材 | 草本金属 | | 5.61% | 3.95% | 3.95% | 3.08% | 3.48% | 3.11% | 2.25% | 2.18% | | 电路板 3.03% | 光刻机 3.00% | 稀土 2.60% | 风力发电 2.56% | 工业机械 2.12% | 石油化工 1.94% | 汽车零部件 1.80% | 化纤行业 1.80% | | 化学纤维 2.50% | 氟化工 2.42% | 乳业 -0.35% | 日酒 -0.38% | 券商 1.77% ...

Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices turn positive, with over 4,200 stocks rising in the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.55%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.75% [1] - In the Hong Kong market, all three indices fell by over 1% [2] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector led the gains, with significant increases in stocks such as New Han New Materials and Hua Mi New Materials, both rising over 12% [9][10] - Real estate stocks experienced a surge, with companies like Quzhou Development and Xinda Real Estate hitting the daily limit [4][5] - The building materials sector also saw a rally, with International Composite Materials achieving a 20% limit up [6][7] - Non-ferrous metal stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Feili Hua and Nord Shares rising over 10% [12][13] Policy and Economic Indicators - Recent policy adjustments in Hainan and Beijing aim to optimize real estate regulations, which may boost market expectations and housing demand [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in housing prices across 70 major cities, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [8] Investment Opportunities - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to significantly increase the demand for PEEK materials, which are lightweight and high-strength, suitable for various applications [11] - The automotive industry's trend towards lightweight and electrification is projected to drive explosive growth for high-performance engineering plastics like PEEK by 2025 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Domestic Market**: Policy support in the livelihood and consumption sectors boosts market confidence, but demand recovery is gradual. The release of July economic data is crucial, and if the data weakens, incremental policies may be introduced [2]. - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's policy stance is divided, with most officials leaning hawkish. The uncertainty of a September rate cut has increased due to the unexpected PPI data. The dollar index may oscillate around 98, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20 [2][4]. - **Equity Market**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations [6]. - **Commodity Market** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may be bullish in the long - term but are in a short - term adjustment phase. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other base metals show different trends. Some are expected to be strong in the medium - term, while others are in a state of shock or decline [14][15][18]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and coal and coke prices may be affected by policies and demand [28][31][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events, and the market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting. Other energy and chemical products such as LPG, PTA, and ethylene glycol have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [39][44][50]. - **Agricultural Products**: For pigs, it is advisable to short on rallies. For oilseeds and oils, there are different investment strategies such as buying on dips for far - month contracts [72][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Attention should be paid to the release of July economic data. The US inflation is high, and the Fed's policy stance is divided, increasing the uncertainty of a September rate cut [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The short - term trend of the dollar index is uncertain, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20. Key data to watch include US retail sales [4]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations. An insurance strategy of holding stocks and buying put options is recommended [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is dominated by sentiment. It is advisable not to short and to try to catch a rebound with a small position, while setting stop - losses for long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and may decline slightly in the medium - term if there are no sudden events [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market adjusted due to the unexpected PPI data. The long - term outlook is bullish, but short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [10][12]. - **Copper**: The price declined slightly due to the stock market and the stable dollar index. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to make low - level purchases [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may rise when entering the peak season. Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Zinc**: The price declined due to the strengthening of the dollar index. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, and the upward momentum is limited. The fundamentals provide limited support [19]. - **Tin**: The price declined slightly, following the trend of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and its downside is limited in the long - term. Polysilicon is affected by supply and demand and policy, and it is advisable to pay attention to industrial policies [22][23]. - **Lead**: The price is weak due to the dollar index and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The price declined due to the fall in coking coal prices. It is expected to oscillate, and the supply is neutral in the short - term [29][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is affected by policies and demand. The medium - and long - term outlook is not pessimistic, but short - term risks should be noted [33][35]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The prices follow the trend of coal. The short - term outlook is affected by market sentiment, and the long - term outlook is related to the real estate market and supply [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose slightly overnight. The market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting, and the upside is limited due to seasonal factors [39][40]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight improvement. The overall situation remains loose [43][44]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices follow the cost trend. PX supply may increase, and PTA processing fees are at a low level. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee [45][47]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Bottle Chip**: The price of ethylene glycol oscillates, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The bottle chip price follows the cost trend, and the processing fee is range - bound [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 09 contract is weak due to port inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply and demand situation has little change. It mainly follows the macroscopic sentiment and coking coal price [54][55]. - **PE**: The supply and demand are increasing. The near - term supply - demand pressure is not large, but it depends on the demand recovery [56][57]. - **PVC**: It should be shorted. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and has a low - level supply and weak demand [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is stable, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is weakly adjusted. The long - term demand may improve [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices are volatile. Soda ash supply is high, glass demand and supply are in a weak balance, and caustic soda demand may improve in the peak season [64][67]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals have improved marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider taking profits when the price breaks the 5 - day moving average [68]. - **Propylene**: The upward momentum of the spot and futures prices is weak. The supply is high, and the demand changes little [69][70]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The supply is high, and it is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [72]. - **Oilseeds**: It is recommended to buy far - month double - meal contracts on dips due to the expected supply gap [73][74]. - **Oils**: The far - month supply gap supports the strong operation of oils [75]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 豫光金铅（SH 600531，收盘价：8.5元）8月14日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届2025年第七次董事会会 议于2025年8月14日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于终止公司2025年度向特定对象发行股票并签署 相关终止协议的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，豫光金铅的营业收入构成为：有色金属占比49.24%，贵金属占比46.1%，其他行业 占比2.45%，化工占比2.02%，其他业务占比0.19%。 ...

据报道，麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)在印尼自有冶炼厂突发停产后，正以超预期规模出售铜精矿，这为面 临历史性供应紧缺的冶炼企业带来了短期喘息之机。 报道指出，此次异常销售源于麦克莫兰铜金旗下PT Smelting冶炼厂制氧系统突发故障，导致原定四周 的检修期被迫延长。该冶炼厂主要处理来自公司旗舰项目——格拉斯伯格铜金矿的矿石。 据悉，停产事件已释放出约10万吨格拉斯伯格铜精矿库存。由于这批货物需在9月中旬到期的临时出口 许可证期限内完成运输，该公司正加紧安排发运。 分析称，虽然这批供应量对全球铜市影响有限，但在全球冶炼产能激增导致原料争夺白热化的背景下， 将为现货市场注入可观的短期流动性。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The central government's policies show care for the capital market, with a long - term bullish outlook for the stock market, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends, with some expected to be volatile and strong, and some facing downward risks [9][12]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may weaken if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of related products are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [25]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment, and different trading strategies are recommended [44][45]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [56][57]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - News: As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. 188 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [2]. - Basis ratio of stock index futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long run, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.11%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.12%. COMEX gold fell 0.03%, and COMEX silver fell 0.10%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6]. - Outlook: The US Treasury Secretary called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: The US dollar index weakened, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic spot premiums were firm. - Price trend: Copper prices may be volatile and strong in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of 9650 - 9850 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The domestic commodity atmosphere cooled, and aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. LME inventory increased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. - Price trend: Aluminum prices may be volatile in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2580 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell slightly. Zinc ore was in a loose supply situation, and domestic zinc ingots were in excess. - Price trend: Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased, and the start - up rate of primary lead recovered. Downstream consumption pressure was high. - Price trend: Lead prices may be volatile and strong in the short term [15]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose slightly, but the surplus pressure remained. - Price trend: Nickel prices may rebound slightly in the short term but face correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - Market: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply pressure remained. Demand was weak domestically but strong overseas due to AI computing power. - Price trend: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The market was affected by supply news and capital games. - Price trend: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders can seize entry points. The reference operating range of the 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [18][19]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances continued, but the over - capacity pattern remained. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Social inventory decreased, and market trading was inactive. - Price trend: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. - Price trend: The upward space of prices is relatively limited [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and hot - rolled coil showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with both inventories rising. - Price trend: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may fall [25]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, and iron water production decreased slightly. - Price trend: Iron ore prices are mainly affected by sentiment and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices fell significantly. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment and fundamentals. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory is likely to accumulate. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The long and short sides have different views. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a neutral view and operate in and out quickly, and consider short - term spread trading [43]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices fell. US commercial crude oil inventory increased, and SPR inventory increased slightly. - Outlook: Oil prices are currently underestimated, and it is a good opportunity for left - side layout [44]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and port inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: Urea prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and demand was weak. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices fell. The cost side provides support, and the port inventory decreased significantly. - Price trend: The BZN spread may repair, and prices may rise with the cost side after inventory reduction [47]. PVC - Market: PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased slightly, and port inventory increased. - Price trend: The short - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - Market: PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, and demand is expected to improve after the off - season. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long with PX on dips after the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices fell. PX load remained high, and downstream PTA maintenance increased. - Price trend: PX is expected to continue to destock, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long with crude oil on dips after the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase in August, and demand is in the off - season. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. - Price trend: PP prices may rise slightly with crude oil in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply is not short, and there is room for future price increases. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts and pay attention to spread trading opportunities for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was large, and the price performance in the peak season was weaker than expected. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans rose slightly, and rapeseed meal fell from the high. Domestic soybean meal spot basis decreased. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade relations [60]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices rose slightly, and rapeseed oil prices fluctuated. Malaysian palm oil exports increased in early August. - Strategy: Oils and fats prices are expected to oscillate, and the upward space is limited [62]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices rebounded. Brazilian sugar exports increased in early August. - Price trend: International and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices may continue to fall [63]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices rebounded. The USDA report was positive, and Sino - US tariffs were suspended. - Price trend: Cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [64].