文字早评 2025/05/15 星期四 前一交易日沪指+0.86%，创指+1.01%，科创 50+0.41%，北证 50+1.08%，上证 50+1.69%，沪深 300+1.21%， 中证 500+0.30%，中证 1000+0.15%，中证 2000+0.11%，万得微盘-0.28%。两市合计成交 13167 亿，较上 一日+252 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、中国 4 月社融增量 1.16 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差扩大。 2、中美互降关税后，直击外贸一线：企业抢发货，货代频"爆单"，港口货运高峰或下周出现。 3、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取民营企业意见建议。 宏观金融类 股指 4、美国调整对华加征关税。 资金面：融资额+13.26 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.10bp 至 1.4050%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.99bp 至 3.0473%，十年期国债利率+0.92bp 至 1.6787%，信用利差-1.91bp 至 137bp；美国 10 年期利率+4.00bp 至 4.49%，中美利差-3.08bp 至-281bp。 市盈 ...

◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 1.36%至 78940 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成相关贸易协议，全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解。美通 胀数据低于市场预期，美元走软，隔夜有色金属普涨，铜价小幅上行。 现货市场，日内铜价重心下移，BACK 结构月差有所扩张，下游企业入 市接货情绪难有提振同时由于交割换月临近，持货商大贴水出货情绪有 限。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价回归基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼产出后续存在下滑趋势，不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然 较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小消费表现依然稳中有进，但高 月差抑制了近期消费表现。低库存背景下，铜价或继续维持高位偏强震 荡。技术上看，沪铜短期维持偏强震荡。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 1.4%至 20275 元/吨。氧 化铝运行产能周度环比减少 55 万吨至 8675 万吨，全国氧化铝库存较节 前减少 13.5 万吨至 328.8 万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在 继续，市场处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。有媒体报道北方某大型氧 化铝企业氧化铝产能或存在违规建设，带动市场情绪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Private Economy in Henan Province," which includes six special actions and 21 key tasks aimed at enhancing the contribution of the private economy to the province's overall economic growth [1] - The plan aims for a qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the private economy in Henan over approximately three years, with a focus on increasing the number of operating entities and enhancing the core competitiveness of leading private enterprises [1][3] - The private economy in Henan contributes over 55% of the province's GDP, around 65% of tax revenue, approximately 70% of total imports and exports, over 85% of high-tech enterprises, and over 90% of new urban employment [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the number of private economic entities in Henan is expected to reach 10.817 million, accounting for 96% of all operating entities [2] - The plan includes specific actions such as cultivating backbone private enterprises, increasing support for transformation and upgrading, and encouraging research and development investments [5][6] - The plan also emphasizes the need to match the number of private enterprises in the "Top 500 Private Enterprises in China" with the province's economic scale [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese non-ferrous metals industry showed stable growth in production during the first quarter of 2025, with refined copper output at 3.536 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and electrolytic aluminum output at 11.066 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 21.6% year-on-year, surpassing the national industrial investment growth by 9.6 percentage points, with mining investment up by 38.6% and smelting and processing investment up by 17.9% [1] - Revenue for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises reached 2.2293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while total profit was 91.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [1] Production and Investment - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is expected to continue growing, with an estimated increase of around 3% in the first half of the year [2] - The mining sector saw a significant increase in private investment, with a year-on-year growth of 52.2%, while smelting and processing industries experienced a 14.1% increase in private investment [1] Profitability and Economic Outlook - The profit margin for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises was 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with the mining sector's profit up by 62.3% and smelting and processing profit up by 33.6% [1] - The industry is expected to see a growth in added value of around 6% in the first half of the year, although there may be increasing disparities in profitability across different sectors [2]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/14 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 -381.79 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 2025/05/13 -10 799 80705 29157 -370.77 284.15 101.0 117.0 19.17 189650 81275 变化 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 2025 年 5 月 14 日星期三 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高。宏观方面，美国劳工部公布，4 | | 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3%，略低于 | | | 预期和前值 2.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，持平于预期和前值 的关税政策普遍预计将推高通胀，但企业可能仍在消化大量库存，尚未开始全面提价， | | 2.8%。虽然特朗普政府 | | | 市场预计未来两三个月将逐步体现。同日，特朗普再次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求 | | | | | 其降息。国内方面，中美达成关税协议后，海外投行纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。库存 | | | | 铜 | 方面，LME 铜库存下降 1100 吨至 189650 吨；comex | | 库存增加 1500 吨至 149788 吨。国 | | | 内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。 | | | | | 中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将继续推动风险偏好回升，对铜而言有望短线继续 | | | | | 得到 ...

| 主要会计数据 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 本期比上年 同期增减(%) | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,522,268,970.73 | 4,968,597,194.80 | 31.27 | 4.640.845.431.09 | | 扣除与主营业务无关 的业务收入和不具备 | 6.480.899.807.45 | 4.958.056.600.33 | 30.71 | 4.640.629.911.01 | | 商业实质的收入居的 | | | | | | 营业收入 | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股 | -238.831.043.21 | 19.030.463.94 | -1.354.99 | 520.504.370.05 | | 东的净利润 | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东 的机除非经营性提名 | -284.194.986.06 | -27,822,493.61 | 不透用 | 515.575.538.62 | | 的争利润 | | | | | | 经营活动产生的现 | -1.253.809.704.26 | 6 ...

中辉有色观点 | 200 | 111 | 197 | 1 | I | 1 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N | C | 1 | E | | | | 金银：关税谈判情绪和通胀降温影响，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 767.68 | 772.28 | -0. 60% | 804 | -4. 46% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3255 | 3242 | 0. 39% | 3310 | -1.69% | | 白银 | SHFE 白 银 | 8245 | 8232 | 0. 16% | 8235 | 0. 12% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 33 | 0. 90% | 33 | 1.47% | | | 上海金银比 | 93. 40 | 93.81 | -0. 44% | 97.37 | -4. 07% | | 比价 | COME ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing challenges in its smelting operations, with significant losses reported, and is under pressure to improve its market performance and investor confidence [16][19][22]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - As of May 13, 2025, the company's stock closed at 15.98 yuan, up 0.38%, with a turnover rate of 1.02% and a trading volume of 243,700 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 389 million yuan [1]. - The company has seen a decline in institutional holdings, which may be influenced by market conditions and investment strategies [3]. - The company’s stock has underperformed compared to its peers, with a significant drop in value attributed to poor earnings performance and market sentiment [12][19]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Management - The company reported a net profit increase of only 9% in the first quarter, significantly lower than competitors like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which saw net profit increases of 62% and 90%, respectively [7][12]. - The smelting segment has been a major source of losses, with the company’s smelting capacity at only 750,000 tons per year, which is lower than industry peers [16][19]. - The company plans to increase its copper smelting capacity by 33% in 2025, despite previous losses, indicating a strategy to enhance production [18]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Future Outlook - The company is considering strategic partnerships to improve management and operational efficiency, particularly in light of its challenges in the smelting sector [20]. - The management has emphasized the importance of risk management in its hedging strategies, despite facing losses in its futures trading [5][21]. - The company is committed to optimizing its resource allocation and enhancing operational efficiency to improve its financial performance [19].