Group 1 - The A-share market showed resilience with a rebound, as 4,500 stocks rose, and major sectors like banking, securities, oil, and coal experienced gains, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,380 points [1] - The market sentiment shifted positively, with a notable recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Medical Index, Hong Kong Securities Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index, all showing upward movement [1] - The market's unexpected strength, despite fears related to geopolitical issues, suggests that patience and a long-term perspective are essential for investors [3][5] Group 2 - The likelihood of the market returning to 3,400 points is high, with an emphasis on avoiding emotional trading and focusing on individual stock cycles rather than the overall index [5] - The current market dynamics indicate a rotation among key sectors, with expectations for a rebound in the liquor sector, while the overall index remains stable [5] - The commentary suggests that a bullish market phase is anticipated, encouraging investors to remain engaged and avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The core competency of value investors often lies in patience, particularly the patience to refrain from making impulsive decisions [18][19]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The performance of the managed products has been relatively stable, with several funds outperforming the market despite a lackluster overall performance in 2023 [2][3]. - The top holdings remain consistent, primarily in traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to these industries [2][3]. - The long-term annualized return of the flagship product managed since December 2018 exceeds 16% [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The source of excess returns is attributed to a combination of establishing a forward-looking advantage in information, deeper analysis, and different perspectives [8]. - The investment approach emphasizes acquiring high-quality assets at low prices, which is more feasible when the majority do not share the same valuation standards [5][6]. - The belief that good stocks and returns are achieved through endurance and patience is a recurring theme [20]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current market environment has seen prolonged low performance in cyclical industries, which has exceeded most investors' expectations [10]. - The concept of "this time is different" is highlighted as a cautionary note, indicating that prolonged low performance can delay cash returns and diminish value over time [11]. - The outlook for the real estate sector suggests that risks may not be fully cleared, with a preference for a cautious approach until 2025 [13]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - In the banking sector, while the long-term contraction of interest margins is not yet over, the current pricing remains acceptable based on long-term perspectives [14][15]. - The construction industry has shown signs of cash flow improvement, aligning with expectations, which reduces concerns [15]. - The chemical sector faces challenges with many companies operating at a loss, yet some are still managing to generate profits through cost-cutting measures [15]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - The development of AI is viewed as an irreversible trend, although its immediate impact may be overestimated [16]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach to emerging sectors, emphasizing the need for thorough research and understanding of price dynamics [22].

Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

一周的行情很平静的结束了，上证指数周线跌幅0.51%，没有修复上周的下跌情况下，说明市场的大资金依旧观望氛围很浓。 本周有很多预期都落空了，一是陆家嘴的金融会议，二是美联储的降息。市场并没有出现大幅波动，有白酒、银行护盘了。一个很讽刺的事情，上周都唱空 的白酒却表现出色。 白酒是传统消费，也是A股的大消费，它的指数权重定位决定了它的每一轮跌幅都有底线，不会像妖股那样，所以有左侧定投的价格，一轮月线反弹就是 30~50%的空间，会玩的挣利润，不会玩的人远离。 目前好像不是消费目的，大家是为了炒作挣钱去了，这种不可持续的上涨肯定带来的是崩盘。这种行为不值得鼓励，它不是多少有内在价值的商品，击鼓传 花的游戏下场永远不会很好。 不出意外，大多数人会在股市里面迷失自己，被欲望吞噬，不是说教有用，贪心的人有几亿也容易一夜归零，不贪心的人几万元也会精打细算。 小凡就是稳健策略，年化10%的收益率预期，我认为无论是A股还是港美股，都是岁月静好！只要自己不贪心，发会现生活与股票都很美好。 水平有限的个人观点，仅供大家参考。投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 股价也是很高，大股东都减持离场，说明对未来也不看好。一个玩偶没有多少护城河，未来 ...

金十数据6月20日讯，摩根士丹利发报告指，下调太古股份公司A(00019.HK)目标价5.3%，从75港元降 至71港元，评级从"增持"降至"与大市同步"。大摩上调对该公司2025年每股盈利预测上调6%，2026年 上调4%，2027年上调3%，不过指缺乏催化剂，该股的资产净值（NAV）历史平均折让幅度仅30%。因 此，大摩将折让由20%扩大至30%，因上涨空间不足，降评级。大摩表示，国泰航空(00293.HK)盈利恢 复已经全部显现，不过由于全球贸易摩擦，盈利已经到达顶峰。由于地产业务稳定，大摩预计太古每股 股息2025年可以上升4%，预测股息率可能下降至5%，差于同行。太古的股份回购今年5月结束，估值 仍较为吸引，但没有近期催化剂。 大摩下调太古A目标价5% 评级降至"与大市同步" ...

Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by institutional strategies, with a focus on dividend stocks like banks, and potential rotation to growth sectors such as liquor, securities, and real estate if banks do not perform [3] - Large funds are less likely to sell at market peaks, and downtrends can still experience significant rebounds, indicating that the banking sector remains a strong investment area [3][5] - The current market phase is characterized by a contrast between institutional buying of core assets and retail selling of small-cap tech stocks, suggesting a divergence in investment strategies [5] Group 2 - The market sentiment is expected to lead to a new round of rebounds, particularly before mid-year performance rankings, with quantitative funds showing double-digit returns [5] - The overall market performance has been positive, with core assets rising, while retail investors have faced losses, highlighting a disconnect between institutional and retail investor outcomes [5][7] - The stock market operates on the principle of cognitive realization, where understanding market rhythms is crucial for profitability, emphasizing the importance of making informed investment choices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Keep a close eye on price fluctuations in upstream industries, and pay attention to mid - level events and the overall situation of different industries [1] - Notice the policy promotion in the entertainment and consumption industries [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview 3.1.1 Production Industry - The review of rare earth exports in upstream raw materials is accelerating. China is accelerating the review of rare earth - related export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments held a video conference on strengthening the safety management of new energy vehicles, requiring enterprises to assume product quality and safety responsibilities and avoid cut - throat competition [1] 3.1.2 Service Industry - Beijing issued a support plan to promote the high - quality development of the game and e - sports industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of technologies such as AI and AIGC with the industry [2] 3.2 Industry Overview 3.2.1 Upstream - International oil prices have been rising recently, and coal inventories have declined [3] 3.2.2 Mid - stream - The PX operating rate is at a high level, and the operating rate of pig products has increased slightly [4] 3.2.3 Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a low level in the past three years; the number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [5] 3.3 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [6] 3.4 Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have shown different trends compared with last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, and last week [52] 3.5 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various products in different industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals have different year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [53]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown positive performance, with key constituent stocks experiencing notable gains, indicating a favorable investment environment driven by policy adjustments and credit environment recovery [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the HSSCHKY index increased by 0.54%, with significant gains from stocks such as China Coal Energy (3.23%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (2.16%) [3]. - The BoShi Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) reported a 0.30% increase, with a latest price of 1 yuan and a turnover rate of 2.41%, totaling 101 million yuan in transactions [3]. - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the BoShi ETF was 201 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Leverage - The BoShi ETF has seen a net inflow of 84.66 million yuan over the last five trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 16.93 million yuan [3][4]. - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the BoShi ETF, with a maximum single-day net purchase of 336.62 thousand yuan, bringing the latest financing balance to 866.50 thousand yuan [4]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The BoShi ETF has achieved a net value increase of 33.06% over the past two years, ranking 86 out of 2207 index equity funds [4]. - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 24.18%, with an average monthly return of 4.99% during rising months [4]. - As of June 19, 2025, the ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past month was 1.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the BoShi ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past six months was 0.067%, demonstrating its effectiveness in tracking the HSSCHKY index [4]. Group 5: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCHKY index account for 27.89% of the index, with notable companies including Yanzhou Coal Mining (0.64%) and Hang Lung Properties (0.30%) [5][7].

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and more than 4,600 stocks falling [1][5] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with sectors like mining, oil, and gas showing gains, while technology, real estate, and port sectors faced significant declines [3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerning potential military actions by the U.S. against Iran, have heightened market volatility and increased risk aversion among investors [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates, coupled with warnings about tariffs potentially exacerbating inflation, has impacted global liquidity expectations and led to a sell-off in U.S. stocks, affecting Asian markets [10] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - High-performing sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, controlled nuclear fusion, and digital currencies have seen corrections, with specific stocks hitting their daily limit down [11][12] - The upcoming earnings reporting period for A-shares is expected to favor growth-oriented stocks, with historical data indicating that growth styles tend to perform better during this time [21][24] Future Signals and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest monitoring two key signals: the geopolitical situation regarding U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic policy developments, particularly the upcoming Politburo meeting in late July [14][15] - The market is advised to focus on defensive assets like gold and oil-related funds, while also considering growth sectors such as AI and military technology for long-term investment [16][26] ETF Investment Trends - Despite recent market volatility, there has been a net inflow into ETFs over the past four days, indicating investor interest in diversified exposure [22][19] - Popular ETFs include those tracking the STAR Market, Hang Seng Technology, and various industry-specific funds, reflecting a balanced investment approach [20][18]

Economic Overview - The overall local GDP in Hong Kong increased by 3.1% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, up from a 2.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Service Sector Analysis - The total value added by all service activities rose by 2.6% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The value added by import and export trade, wholesale and retail industries increased by 4.2% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in Q4 2024 [1] - The accommodation and food services sector saw a decrease of 1.8% in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 2.6% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The transportation, warehousing, postal, and courier services sector's value added rose by 2.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 6.8% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The information and communications sector's value added increased by 1.3% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, slightly down from a 1.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The financial and insurance sector's value added rose by 4.4% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.9% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Other Industries - The real estate, professional, and business services sector recorded a 0.3% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The public administration, social, and personal services sector's value added increased by 1.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The local manufacturing sector's value added rose by 0.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The electricity, gas, water supply, and waste management sector experienced a 1.4% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] Construction Industry - The construction sector's value added declined by 1.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 4.7% decrease in Q4 2024 [3]