10. 伊以互炸第5日-①特朗普：暂时不会采取行动除掉伊朗最高领袖。耐心正在耗尽，呼吁伊朗无条件 投降。正在寻求比停火更为积极的解决方案，目前不太愿意与伊朗进行谈判。已完全掌握伊朗领空。② 外媒：内塔尼亚胡仍然认为特朗普会在未来几天参与打击伊朗。③伊媒：伊朗准备好领导人遇刺情况下 的计划。④据悉卡塔尔要求液化天然气船在霍尔木兹海峡外等待装货。⑤万斯：特朗普可能会采取进一 步行动阻止伊朗核计划。 ⑥伊朗是否在研制核弹头？特朗普与情报主管意见不一。⑦综合美媒：特朗 普在战情室进行了1个多小时的会议，会前传其倾向于打击伊朗核设施。⑧美官员透露将向中东派遣战 斗机，据悉地中海东部发现美军4架加油机。 1. 2025陆家嘴论坛今日开幕，将发布若干重大金融政策。 2. 夏季达沃斯论坛将在天津举办。 3. 中方宣布：迅速从伊朗、以色列撤侨。 4. 国内成品油价上调，加满一箱油多花10元。 5. 外汇局：5月份外资增持境内股票较上月进一步增加。 6. 我国新一代载人飞船"梦舟"零高度逃逸飞行试验取得圆满成功。 7. 外交部回应所谓"欧盟取消中欧高层经济对话"：中欧一直就经贸等问题保持着沟通。 8. 刘强东证实京东进军酒店旅游 ...

Group 1 - Verve Therapeutics' stock surged over 70% following an announcement by Eli Lilly to acquire the company for up to $1.3 billion, including a nearly $1 billion upfront payment and potential additional funds based on clinical milestones [3][4] - The acquisition price is set at $10.5 per share for all outstanding shares of Verve, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the company's future prospects [4] - Verve is developing a groundbreaking in vivo gene editing drug, Verve-102, which utilizes CRISPR technology to modify liver cell DNA, potentially transforming the treatment of cardiovascular diseases from chronic care to a one-time therapy [4] Group 2 - The broader market saw declines in major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.24%, S&P 500 down 0.29%, and Nasdaq down 0.40%, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the market despite the positive news for Verve [2] - In the biotech sector, BrainCo, a company focused on brain-computer interface technology, experienced a significant stock increase, reflecting investor enthusiasm for innovative health technologies [4][5] - The energy sector also saw gains, with major oil companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil rising over 1%, amid rising oil prices and geopolitical developments affecting energy supply [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The strategist team led by Jill Carey Hall indicates that U.S. bank clients have adopted a defensive stance towards U.S. stocks for the first time in six weeks, with net inflows into defensive sectors and outflows from cyclical sectors [1] Summary by Category - **Client Behavior** - Clients overall are net buyers, with a total net inflow of $800 million [1] - **Sector Performance** - Inflows were observed in technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples stocks [1] - The largest outflows were from consumer discretionary stocks, followed by industrials and utilities [1]

Important News - Citigroup predicts that gold prices will decline due to weak demand and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with prices expected to fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters [1] - The U.S. Senate proposal states that wind and solar energy tax credits will end in 2028, while incentives for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy will continue until 2036 [1] Individual Stock News - Siemens is expanding its partnership with NVIDIA to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in the industrial sector [2] - Oracle is launching a project to facilitate suppliers in selling technologies, including AI, to the U.S. Department of Defense [2] - Eli Lilly is in deep negotiations to acquire gene-editing startup Verve Therapeutics for up to $1.3 billion [2] - Hong Kong Stock Exchange data shows that Wang Xing sold 5.737 million shares of Li Auto, raising over HK$600 million from June 10 to June 13 [2] - OpenAI is seeking new financial concessions from its largest shareholder Microsoft, aiming for Microsoft to hold about 33% of the restructured division in exchange for waiving future profit-sharing rights [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for May decreased by 0.9%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, with the previous value revised from 0.1% to -0.1% [3] - Merck's long-acting RSV monoclonal antibody is set for priority review in China [3] - Faraday Future announced the addition of new executives to its 10b5-1 stock buyback plan [3] - SK Group plans to collaborate with Amazon to build an AI data center in Ulsan [3] - SoftBank sold $4.8 billion worth of T-Mobile shares to reinvest in AI initiatives [3]

卡塔尔警告不要袭击中东地区的能源和核设施。 ...

Core Insights - Despite a nearly 20% rebound in global stock markets since April, challenges remain due to policy ambiguity, profit headwinds, and high valuations [1][2] - Barclays forecasts a 6.5% annualized return for global stocks over the next decade, emphasizing the importance of defensive positioning and options strategies to hedge risks [1][15] - The first half of 2025 highlighted the fragility of investor confidence and the rapid changes in market narratives, with a notable shift from crowded trades in U.S. tech stocks to broader market sectors and international markets [1][3][6] Market Dynamics - The market has experienced significant rotation, with funds flowing out of crowded trades, particularly in U.S. large-cap tech stocks, into a wider array of market sectors and international markets [3][6] - The rotation reflects a reassessment of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and the ability of a few tech giants to sustain above-average profit growth [6][7] Economic Outlook - While recession risks have diminished, they have not been eliminated, with uncertainties surrounding proposed tariffs and their implementation [8] - The average actual tariff in the U.S. is expected to be 14%, significantly lower than the initial 23% forecast, limiting potential upside [8] - Despite resilient economic data, a technical recession remains a possibility, and investor expectations should align with a potentially weak economic growth outlook [8] Valuation Concerns - Stock valuations remain high, particularly in the U.S., despite recent rebounds, which do not align with expectations of slowing growth and rising inflation risks [9][11] - Global profit growth is projected at 8% for 2025, down from an initial estimate of 12%, with 2026 profit forecasts remaining at 13% but facing challenges in a slowing global economy [11] Investment Strategy - Continuous investment is deemed reasonable, but active risk management is equally important, with a focus on diversified investments and selective stock picking [1][15] - Defensive sectors are preferred over cyclical sectors, with utilities and consumer staples offering attractive dividend yields and lower downside risk [18] - The importance of diversification is emphasized, particularly given the concentration risk in U.S. stocks, which account for nearly two-thirds of the MSCI global index [15] Regional Opportunities - The UK and emerging markets present attractive investment opportunities due to their historical valuation discounts compared to U.S. stocks [16] - The FTSE 100 index offers lower exposure to U.S. tech stocks and is expected to benefit from a broader market rebound [16] - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar and cyclical shifts, although careful stock selection is crucial due to country-specific risks [16] Sector Focus - Defensive sectors are favored, with utilities and healthcare showing potential for stable returns, especially in Europe [18] - Energy stocks are highlighted for their significant historical discounts and leading dividend yields, making them attractive for diversification [18] Long-term Growth Themes - Long-term investment themes, such as European defense and artificial intelligence, are gaining traction, with governments increasing defense spending and AI-related stocks becoming more attractive post-selloff [20]

Core Viewpoint - BOE is diversifying its business by investing in MLED display technology and the energy sector, forming partnerships to enhance its market position and drive industry transformation [1][3]. Group 1: MLED Business Development - On June 16, BOE and Shanghai Film Group announced the establishment of a joint venture named "Shanghai Oriental," focusing on MLED technology [1]. - The newly launched SFC Shanghai BOE Suprα Super Cinema features BOE's MLED digital cinema screen technology, offering superior black levels, high contrast, and wide color gamut [1][3]. - The MLED business model integrates R&D, manufacturing, and sales of LED display solutions, targeting various applications including TVs, monitors, and outdoor displays [5]. Group 2: Energy Sector Initiatives - On June 13, BOE established Yajiang BOE Energy Development Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, focusing on power generation, transmission, and emerging energy technologies [3]. - The new company is jointly owned by BOE Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (80% stake) and Ganzi Energy Development Group Co., Ltd. (20% stake) [3]. - BOE Energy operates with a focus on zero-carbon comprehensive energy services, utilizing its proprietary smart energy management system (BSEOS) to provide integrated energy solutions [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, BOE's MLED business generated revenue of 8.483 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.76% [5]. - The energy sector achieved revenue of 1.012 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 34.26% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, indicating that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [1]. - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline, with the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities falling month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowing [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In May, the national industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all fell month - on - month, with the decline in third - tier cities widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have continued to rebound [2]. - Black commodities: All black commodities have recently declined in the short term [2]. 3.2.2. Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate has recently rebounded [3]. - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has continued to rise recently [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the chemical industry decreased from 52.63 last week to 49.66 this week, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical industry decreased from 61.31 last week to 58.32 this week [50]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries have different price trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 7.37% year - on - year, while the spot price of zinc decreased by 1.91% year - on - year [51].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province aims to accelerate the establishment of a significant strategic support point for the rise of the central region, focusing on high-quality economic development through effective investment expansion [1] Investment Expansion - The province plans to implement 16,000 projects with an investment of over 100 million yuan each, targeting a growth rate of approximately 7% for the year [1] - A new mechanism for cooperation between "government resources + social capital" will be explored, with a goal to promote projects worth no less than 400 billion yuan to private capital throughout the year [1] - The government will enhance support for private enterprises, ensuring that the proportion of government industrial funds, land use, and energy consumption supporting private investment projects reaches around 60% [1] Major Projects - The construction of 3,100 major projects, including the Three Gorges Waterway New Channel, Han River Navigation Improvement, and the expansion of the Huhang Expressway, is set to receive an annual investment of over 540 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11] - For most commodities, the report analyzes supply - demand relationships, price trends, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as long - position, short - position, or waiting for opportunities Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices mostly rose in the previous trading day. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The macro - economy shows a stable recovery, but the recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Equities - **Stock Index Futures**: Futures prices showed mixed trends in the previous trading day. The employment situation is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures had different price changes in the previous trading day. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper fluctuated within a range. The spot market atmosphere was average, and the downstream consumption was mediocre. The Sino - US London negotiation reached a framework agreement, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The US refined copper inventory increased, and the copper tariff has not been determined. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and a long - position operation is considered [48][49][51] - **Tin**: The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream production data is good. The inventory is decreasing. The current contradiction lies in the game between the tight supply in reality and the loose expectation. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [52] - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support weakened, the downstream consumption was pessimistic, and the demand entered the off - season. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [53] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing with over - capacity. The market has entered the off - season, and the price is at a low level with limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly. The iron - water production decreased, and the supply increased. The price valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Futures prices rebounded significantly. The market is in an oversupply situation. The short - term price may stop falling, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. Long - position investors need to be cautious. If the spot loss increases significantly, consider low - value call options [21][22] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical risks. Fund managers increased their net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. The Sino - US negotiation is beneficial to market sentiment, but the situation in Iran is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][26] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices rose following crude oil. The inventory in Fujairah increased, which is negative for fuel oil. The global trade demand is recovering, but geopolitical risks are high. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28][30] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The supply pressure eased slightly, the demand improvement was limited, and the cost is expected to rebound. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [31][32] - **Natural Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The demand is worried about the future, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is affected by rain. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [33][34] - **PVC**: Futures prices rose slightly. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [34] - **Urea**: Futures prices rose. It is supported by agricultural demand release and overseas supply tightening, and a long - position is recommended [35][36] - **PX**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil. Interval operation with caution is recommended [36] - **PTA**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand structure weakened, and the inventory decreased. Interval operation and paying attention to reducing processing fees are recommended [37] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Futures prices rose. The supply - demand situation weakened, and the inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [38] - **Short - Fiber**: Futures prices rose. The downstream demand weakened, but the cost provides support. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [39] - **Bottle Chips**: Futures prices rose. The raw material price fluctuates strongly, and the device maintenance increases. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [40] - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The short - term market is expected to be weakly stable, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [41] - **Glass**: Futures prices rose slightly. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. Excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [42] - **Caustic Soda**: Futures prices declined. The supply is relatively loose, and the regional difference is obvious. Long - position investors need to control positions [43][44] - **Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory is high, and the market is in the off - season. The real turnaround may occur in August [45][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices declined. The supply is high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [47] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options at the bottom support level [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed prices jumped. The import volume of rapeseed oil increased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices fluctuated, and overseas prices rose. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price rise provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62][63] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices rebounded after a sharp decline, and overseas prices rose. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume will increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [64][65][66] - **Apples**: Futures prices fluctuated. The new - year's apple production is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [67] - **Hogs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon - Boat Festival. Consider long - position opportunities for peak - season contracts [68][69] - **Eggs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71] - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn - starch futures prices declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [72][73][74] - **Logs**: Futures prices rose. The supply and demand have no obvious drive, and the market transaction is light. Be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances [75]