投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好降温，有色板块继续回调 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry, highlighting the sector's robust performance relative to the CSI 300 index [1][4]. Group 1: Performance and Market Review - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 77.88%, outperforming the CSI 300's 16.01% increase [21]. - The sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals have shown varied performance, with nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony leading with a rise of 106.62%, followed by lithium at 102.88% and tungsten at 97.82% [21][23]. - The upstream mining sector reported revenues of CNY 306.97 billion, a 14.20% year-on-year increase, and profits of CNY 93.28 billion, up 33.30% [27][28]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper supply is constrained due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is bolstered by investments in energy and electric vehicles, leading to an upward price trend [6][8]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing tight supply with limited new capacity, and the average price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around CNY 22,000 per ton in 2026 [6][8]. - The copper segment's revenue for Q3 2025 reached CNY 1,443.86 billion, a 5.05% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 44.60% to CNY 69.91 billion [32]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The gold sector is benefiting from central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with revenues for Q3 2025 reaching CNY 291.17 billion, a 34.35% increase year-on-year, and net profits rising 63.03% to CNY 14.49 billion [37]. - Silver, with both industrial and monetary attributes, is expected to show greater price elasticity, supported by a slight increase in global demand [6][8]. Group 4: Rare Metals - The rare metals sector has shown significant profit growth, with revenues for Q3 2025 reaching CNY 79.93 billion, a 12.47% increase, and net profits soaring 200.11% to CNY 4.99 billion [41]. - The nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony segment reported revenues of CNY 130.87 billion, a 23.79% increase, with net profits rising 25.45% to CNY 9.31 billion [41]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in copper, aluminum, gold, and superhard materials, emphasizing the strategic value of these resources in the current market environment [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated slightly this week, with downstream consumption remaining weak. The negotiation of long - term contracts between copper producers and downstream consumers is ongoing, and the price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2]. - Zinc prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [11][12]. - Tin prices' short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. - Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - The price of lithium carbonate has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices first rose and then declined slightly this week [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream consumption is weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is ongoing. LME copper had concentrated warehousing this week, and the scrap - refined copper price difference has widened [1]. - **Outlook**: The price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing, and attention should be paid to industrial support at this level [1]. Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices declined this week, and the position decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas production capacity is gradually being put into operation. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods and strips decreased slightly. Downstream consumption is acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices has increased [1][2]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating to decline. The production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots has started, and most smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices declined this week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [5]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Stainless steel prices remained stable this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill production increased slightly in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices declined this week [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is loose, demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is increasing. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated [11][12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly next week in the range of 17,100 - 17,400 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices rose this week [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply has marginally recovered, overseas production has uncertainties, and demand is mainly rigid [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Not mentioned explicitly [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with some production capacity changes in different regions [18]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The price first rose and then fell sharply [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased, the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the transaction is冷清 [20]. - **Outlook**: The price has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20].

公开资料显示，创新实业聚焦于铝产业链上游中的氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。铝产业链主要包括上游铝 生产和下游铝合金加工。上游铝生产主要包含三个阶段：铝土矿开采、氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。根据 CRU的报告，按2024年产量计，创新实业位于内蒙古霍林郭勒市的电解铝冶炼厂是华北地区第四大电 解铝生产基地；按2024年产量计，公司是中国第十二大电解铝生产商。 值得注意的是，创新实业积极响应"一带一路"倡议，前瞻性布局沙特50万吨电解铝综合项目，海外市场 将为公司注入新的增长动能。根据CRU的报告，2025年至2028年，预计中东地区电解铝需求量将保持 约4.6%的年复合增长率。通过切入这一高增长市场，公司不仅将充分受益于区域发展红利，也将通过 产能的全球化配置分散地缘政治与单一市场风险，增强经营稳定性。 智通财经APP获悉，创新实业(02788)首挂上市，公告显示，每股定价10.99港元，共发行5亿股股份，每 手500股，所得款项净额约53.13亿港元。截至发稿，涨38.31%，报15.2港元，成交额7.39亿港元。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，郴州钻石钨制品有限公司成立，法定代表人为申志均，注册资本30000万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：常用有色金属冶炼；稀有稀土金属冶炼；有色金属合金制造；有色金属压延 加工。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）（依法须经批准的项目，经相 关部门批准后方可开展经营活动）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company announces a new strategic plan called "One Body, Two Wings" aimed at enhancing its market position and contributing to national supply chain security [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - "One Body" refers to the company being a leading enterprise with rich metal resources [1] - "Two Wings" focuses on the development of copper, lead, and zinc smelting and deep processing industries, as well as rare and precious metals and new materials [1] Group 2: Development Approach - The company emphasizes both "external development" and "internal development" to drive growth [1] - A dual approach of "focusing on core business + capital operation" is adopted to optimize product structure and enhance the industrial chain layout [1] Group 3: Value Management - The company has established a value management system to enhance investor returns and protect the rights of stakeholders [1] - Efforts will be made to improve investor relations management and promote high-quality development to achieve shareholder value returns [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, alumina is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, and Shanghai aluminum will run in a high - level volatile manner, with a suggestion to wait and see; in the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum will run with a slight upward trend, and alumina will run weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] - For copper, in the short - term, the game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it will oscillate in a high - level range; in the long - term, there is long - term positive support for demand, and it is expected to be bullish [47] - Regarding lithium carbonate, in the short - term, there may be repeated high - level oscillations; in the long - term, energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) closed at 86,900 on November 7th and 85,660 on November 14th, with a weekly change of - 1,240 and a weekly decline of 1.43%. The spot average price of 1 copper in Shanghai dropped from 87,070 to 85,870, a decline of 1.38% [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) decreased from 21,840 to 21,340, a weekly decline of 2.29%. The spot average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai dropped from 21,900 to 21,370, a decline of 2.42% [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) decreased slightly by 0.33%, and the spot average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai declined by 0.22% [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) declined by 1.94%, and the spot average price of 1 lead ingot dropped by 2.01% [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) declined by 2.75%, and the spot average price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped by 2.42% [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) declined by 3.86%, and the spot price in Foshan dropped by 0.35% [4] - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) declined by 0.67%, while the spot average price of 553 silicon increased by 1.05% [4] - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2601) increased by 4.19%, and the spot average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) increased by 8.77% [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2511) increased by 4.83%, while the spot price of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Copper - related - As of November 21st, SHFE copper inventory was 110,600 tons, a 1.10% increase from last week. As of November 20th, LME copper inventory was 157,900 tons, a 16.36% increase, and COMEX copper inventory was 398,500 tons, a 1.84% increase [14][15] - As of November 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 41.72 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.17 cents/pound, with the expectation of tight supply at the mine end remaining [18] 3.3 Lithium - related - As of November 21st, the index of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 1,089 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 83 dollars/ton [20] 3.4 Aluminum - related - Aluminum raw material supply: As of November 21st, the port inventory of bauxite was 2,802.36 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was at a historical high [25] - Alumina supply: As of November 21st, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.46%, a slight increase, and the total inventory was 488,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week [32] - Electrolytic aluminum supply: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum production was 3,766,000 metric tons, imports were 248,400 tons, inventory was 618,000 tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [35] - Aluminum inventory in the three major exchanges: As of November 20th, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,100 tons, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,564 tons, and COMEX aluminum inventory decreased by 604 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a downward trend this week [37][38] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [40] - In September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9% [40] - From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease, and the housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% decrease [41] - As of the end of September, the cumulative power generation installed capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% increase [41] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and volatilely, and Shanghai aluminum runs in a high - level volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see [44] - Long - term: In a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum runs with a slight upward trend; alumina runs weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] Copper - Short - term: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it oscillates in a high - level range [47] - Long - term: There is long - term positive support for demand, and it is bullish [47] Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: There may be repeated high - level oscillations [50] - Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访黄群慧：既要重视AI赋能千行百业，也要考量其对就业 的替代效应和带来的收入极化 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，赣锋锂业（SZ 002460，收盘价：64.14元）11月21日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第十次 董事会会议于2025年11月21日以现场和通讯表决相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于提请召开2025年 第四次临时股东会的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，赣锋锂业的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼及压延加工业占比56.78%，锂电池和电 芯及其直接材料占比35.52%，其他占比7.7%。 截至发稿，赣锋锂业市值为1321亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper announced its strategic focus on "digital transformation, resource expansion, mining optimization, smelting improvement, recycling, and refining of rare metals" to enhance its competitive edge and ensure high-quality development [2] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company is increasing its efforts in urban mining and the extraction of rare metals [2] - By 2025, the company aims to focus on extreme operational efficiency, targeting a further reduction in main product costs compared to 2024 levels [2] - The company has achieved a competitive cost structure for its main products through years of cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2: Profit Contribution and Supply Chain - The company is enhancing the profit contribution from by-products such as sulfuric acid, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium to improve overall competitiveness [2] - Increased procurement of urban mining materials is being prioritized to ensure raw material supply and mitigate challenges posed by processing fees [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongjin Lingnan announced its main products, which include lead ingots, zinc ingots, zinc alloys, cathode copper, silver, gold, crude copper, gallium, germanium concentrate, industrial sulfuric acid, and sulfur [1] Product Overview - Lead metal is primarily used in lead-acid batteries, lead materials, and lead alloys, with additional applications in lead oxide, lead salts, and cables [1] - Zinc metal is mainly utilized in galvanizing, die-casting alloys, zinc oxide, brass, and batteries [1]