有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 6 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.06%至 77600 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22910，基差+360；偏多。 3、库存：5月2日LME锌库存较上日减少100吨至173800吨，4月30日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少75吨至2354吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released at the end of April showed a decline in nickel prices. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decrease after May. Demand support from downstream nickel sulfate and profit thresholds of external procurement manufacturers have both declined. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely. Despite a short - term rebound in nickel prices, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [1][2]. Zinc - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts a surplus of refined zinc in 2025. The supply side is generally loosening, while the demand side is likely to weaken, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) released the latest INPI on April 28. The price of nickel pig iron (NPI) decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the prices of high - grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) also declined [1]. - **Zinc**: The ILZSG expects a surplus of 93,000 tons of refined zinc in 2025. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons. Zinc ore production is expected to grow by 4.3% to 12.43 million tons [4]. Supply - **Nickel**: Indonesia increased mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel ore is firm. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at a historically high level. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [1]. - **Zinc**: Mining enterprise profits have shrunk, but the TC price has not declined, and imports at the mine end have significantly improved. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The possibility of production cuts at the supply side is extremely low, and the supply is generally loosening [4]. Demand - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is around 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. Stainless steel production cuts are less likely [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak demand season is coming to an end. Galvanizing production enthusiasm is low, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. Die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets also show weak demand [5]. Conclusion - **Nickel**: Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, the situation is changing from tight to loose, and there is a surplus in the medium - to - long term, with a bearish outlook [5]. Operation Suggestions - **Nickel**: Short [2] - **Zinc**: Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The central bank's operations are uncertain, and the level of funding rates is the core variable for whether bond market interest rates can continue to break downward [4]. - The credit bond market sentiment is stable, and the allocation rhythm should be maintained. The new issuance volume decreased significantly in the week of April 28 - May 4, with a large net outflow. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends [4]. - For convertible bonds, operations can gradually become more active. The convertible bond market is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. If the equity market sentiment improves, the demand for convertible bond allocation will continue to be released [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - In May, the bond market should focus on the funding situation. The 10 - year Treasury bond has moved from the right to the left of the [1.6% - 1.9%] range. The net supply of government bonds in May may reach about 1.7 trillion, bringing uncertainty to the funding situation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooled during the May Day holiday, adding uncertainty to the central bank's monetary policy [4][9]. 1.2 Credit Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 112 billion yuan, a 79% decrease compared to the previous period due to the May Day holiday. The total repayment was 197.3 billion yuan, also a significant decrease, resulting in a net outflow of 85.3 billion yuan. Yields generally declined, and spreads showed different trends. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][11]. 1.3 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market showed mixed performance. The convertible bond market declined slightly, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index falling 0.07%. The convertible bond valuation is stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Operations can be more active [4][13]. 1.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's April Caixin Services PMI, April CPI, the US May interest - rate decision, and the Eurozone's April Services PMI [14]. 1.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 565.1 billion yuan, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be 391 billion yuan, local bonds 74.1 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 100 billion yuan [14][16]. 2 Interest - rate Bonds Review and Outlook 2.1 Central Bank's Operations and Funding Situation - During the month - end, the central bank increased reverse repurchase operations, with a total net injection of 735.8 billion yuan in the open - market operations for the week [19]. 2.2 Strong Willingness to Hold Bonds for the Holiday - Before the holiday, the PMI data and the funding situation were generally stable, and the enthusiasm for holding bonds for the holiday was high, which contributed to the decline in interest rates, especially for longer - term and high - duration bonds [34]. 3 High - frequency Data - Commodity prices mostly declined. On the production side, the operating rates were divided. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land transactions decreased. Export indices declined. In terms of prices, crude oil prices decreased, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were divided [45]. 4 Credit Bonds Review 4.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, downgrades of bond or issuer ratings in the domestic market from April 28 - May 4, but there were overseas rating downgrades of some companies [64][65]. 4.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds decreased significantly, with a large net outflow. The cost of issuing high - grade bonds increased slightly, and the frequency of issuing new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [4][68]. 4.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations declined slightly. Short - term spreads narrowed, while medium - and long - term spreads widened passively. The turnover rate decreased, and high - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [4][73].

Group 1 - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., will hold an online performance briefing for the year 2024 on May 12, 2025, at 15:00 [1][2] - The briefing will cover the company's operating performance, financial status, and strategic planning, allowing for interactive communication with investors [1] - The company encourages investors to submit questions in advance via email by May 9, 2025, to ensure a comprehensive discussion during the briefing [3] Group 2 - Key participants in the briefing will include General Manager Liang Hongliu, Secretary of the Board and Chief Accountant Yao Bing, and Independent Director Yao Lushi [2] - Investors can participate through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's "Interactive Easy" platform [3] - Contact information for the event includes representatives Wang Xiao and Zhang Ning, with provided phone numbers and email addresses for inquiries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/04/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/23 180 1237 171611 44965 -24.87 699.82 88.0 103.0 -19.12 205250 77825 2025/04/24 175 1117 171611 42964 -300.46 737.71 88.0 103.0 6.43 203425 76050 2025/04/25 180 1130 116753 41588 -215.41 591.25 90.0 110.0 2.41 203450 77250 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 变 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak with a strong bearish sentiment. The supply pressure is clear due to increased production and overseas ore arrivals. The supply increment in April is expected to slow down marginally. Demand is generally stable but falls short of expectations during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in energy storage export orders. The overall demand lacks further drivers, and the pressure may increase in the future. The inventory is still high, and the short - term market is expected to remain weak, with the main contract price ranging from 65,000 to 70,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated. Spot prices remained stable, and some traders sold secondary resources at low prices due to pre - holiday capital requirements. The ore price is relatively firm, but the ferronickel price is loosening. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan [5]. Nickel - The nickel market maintained a weak oscillation. Spot prices rose slightly. The macro - level sentiment has gradually recovered, but there is still policy uncertainty. The cost of nickel products may increase, and the ferronickel price is under pressure. The industry cost - pricing model continues, and the inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [7]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is general after the peak season, and the downstream maintains rigid procurement. Trump's statement on tariff reduction has led to a short - term rebound in zinc prices. In the future, the zinc price may move downward if the terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariffs, or it may maintain a high - level oscillation if the ore supply and downstream consumption perform unexpectedly. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan [9]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply - side production capacity remains high, and the bauxite price is expected to decline. The demand is stable but with limited growth, and the export demand has decreased. The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price provides some support. The short - term trend is weakly oscillating. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply - side production capacity is stable, and the demand is seasonally strong but may weaken in the future. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The short - term focus is on the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan level, and the price may be under pressure in the future [12]. Copper - Macroeconomically, the tariff pressure has been slightly relieved. The supply side has a tight raw material situation, and the demand side is resilient. The inventory has been well - depleted. The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", and the price is expected to oscillate. The main contract price should be monitored at the 77,000 - 78,000 yuan pressure level [13]. Tin - The supply of tin ore has been tight, but the supply pressure is expected to ease with the resumption of production in some mines. The demand side has seen some improvement in the soldering tin industry, but the overall demand expectation is pessimistic due to uncertain tariffs. A bearish view on rebounds is recommended [15]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 decreased by 0.87% to 68,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 decreased by 0.89% to 66,500 yuan/ton; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide均价 decreased by 0.29% to 67,710 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide均价 decreased by 0.32% to 61,700 yuan/ton; the CIF price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 0.56% to 8.80 dollars/kg. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 540 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 was - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from the previous value; the spread between 2506 - 2507 was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2512 was - 2880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons; battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 18.18% to 55,715 tons; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 38.12% to 23,350 tons; lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons; lithium carbonate imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons; lithium carbonate exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons. In April, the lithium carbonate production capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the operating rate increased by 20% to 54%. In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons; the downstream inventory increased by 27.94% to 39,293 tons; the smelter inventory increased by 9.40% to 50,777 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,020 yuan/ton and 13,100 yuan/ton respectively. The basis (spot - futures price difference) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons; exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons; net exports increased by 196.56% to 34.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.53% to 54.42 million tons; the cold - rolled social inventory decreased by 2.67% to 35.96 million tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.09% to 16.31 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.44% to 125,600 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.36% to 126,550 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 6.67% to 2,100 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel increased by 0.48% to 124,600 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 38.79% to - 200 dollars/ton; the futures import loss decreased by 12.64% to - 3,650 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 7.99 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 remained unchanged at - 140 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [7]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons; social inventory increased by 1.51% to 43,960 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 5,800 tons; LME inventory increased by 0.07% to 201,564 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.07% to 24,368 tons [7]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.39% to 22,970 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged. SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) increased by 0.65% to 23,060 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 66.96 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.60 [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 decreased by 240 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 225 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 remained unchanged at 140 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons; imports increased by 98.28% to 5.28 million tons; exports decreased by 52.41% to 0.10 million tons. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.90% to 62.44%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate increased by 0.59% to 58.98%; the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.02% to 59.77%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 7.63% to 8.59 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.40% to 17.9 million tons [9]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.35% to 20,020 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged. The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,860 yuan/ton; in Henan it increased by 0.17% to 2,900 yuan/ton; in Shanxi it increased by 0.35% to 2,900 yuan/ton; in Guangxi it remained unchanged at 2,890 yuan/ton; in Guizhou it remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 1,198 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.20 [12]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 70 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 35 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton; the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons; electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons to 22.21 million tons; exports increased by 0.5 million tons to 0.89 million tons. The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 1.71% to 59.50%; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.60%; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips remained unchanged at 68.00%; the operating rate of aluminum foils remained unchanged at 73.00%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys remained unchanged at 55.40%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China decreased by 4.46% to 64.30 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% to 42.0 million tons [12]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.61% to 78,035 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.53% to 78,035 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton; SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.60% to 77,965 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper spread increased by 1.62% to 1,386 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 increased to 16.41 dollars/ton; the import loss increased to - 414 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.25; the Yangshan copper premium increased by 1.08% to 94 dollars/ton [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton; the spread between 2507 - 2508 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons; imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 22.50% to - 42.52 dollars/ton; the copper concentrate inventory at domestic mainstream ports increased by 13.45% to 80.20 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 1.49% to 79.56%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production decreased by 7.82% to 22.00%. The domestic social inventory decreased by 21.07% to 15.51 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3.84% to 8.51 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 31.97% to 11.68 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 0.15% to 20.25 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 2.40% to 13.51 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 94.52% to 3.69 million tons [13]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin increased by 0.77% to 262,200 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.77% to 262,700 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 1.16% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss increased by 8.35% to - 11,547.33 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.14 [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 -

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.44%至 9446.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.19%至 77740 元/吨；国 | | | 内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人，大幅低于预期 | | | 750 万人和前值 756.8 万人；美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数降至 86，创 2020 年 5 月份 | | | 以来新低。美国总统特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽车关税政策带来的冲击。这也表明 | | | 虽然美政府态度仍会反复，但在发债压力下总体相比 4 月份将缓和。库存方面来看， | | | LME 库存下降 300 吨至 20.25 万吨；Comex 库存增加 2372.31 吨至 12.49 万吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 2842 吨至 34042 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 100 吨至 9863 吨。需求方面，总体来 | | | 看订单较为平稳。外围宏观情绪缓和，国内旺季成色较足，快速去库下看空情绪偏弱， | ...