Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

哪些行业受益人民币升值 20251228 摘要 市场预计短期缩量整理，等待五日均线支撑，建议投资者挖掘机会，布 局年后行情。美国新联储主席人选公布或成节后重大催化剂，特朗普或 倾向于敢于降息的主席，以配合其持有大量美债的利益和弱美元政策。 国内方面，北京楼市新政支撑市场情绪，美股科技板块利空基本消化。 A500 ETF 资金流入，牛市预期下，保险资金可能抢跑，成交额放大有 望突破 4,000 点，市场向上弹性充足。 人民币资产重估是重要投资方向，人民币走强受益行业包括成本端的钢 铁、有色、石化、造纸、航空燃气等，负债端的航空公司和地产，以及 人民币核心资产如银行保险和港股。 看好出海板块，受益于 2026 年海外经济强劲，特朗普或努力提升美国 经济以应对中期选举压力。推荐奔马 50 组合，上周绝对收益率超 10%，超额收益约 4 个百分点。 关注科技龙头 IPO 相关产业链企业，如穗元、长鑫存储、世亚科技、国 仪量子等，其供应商和参股公司将在上市融资后受益，通过资本开支带 动需求增长。 Q&A 近期市场表现如何，未来走势预期如何？ 上周市场表现强劲，连续八个交易日上涨，符合春季躁动的预期。由于接近 4,000 ...

宏宏宏宏宏宏宏宏宏 2026 年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630516080002 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630522020001 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630525100001 年年年年年年年 年年年年年liusj@longone.com.cn 2025 年12年28年 年年年年年年 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一一一一"一一一一一" 2025一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 CONTENTS 一一 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一 资料来源：国家统计局，海关总署， 东海证券研究所 2025年1-11月国内主要经济数据，% 5.90 1.30 5.40 -2.60 1.90 0.13 -15.90 4.9 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 -5 0 5 10 15 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 1 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, supported by strong domestic capital, with trading volumes exceeding 1.9 trillion CNY on December 25 and 26[4] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark, influenced by the US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, becoming a key variable for future market trends[4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommended trading strategy during this RMB appreciation phase is a mid-term focus on "pan-technology" and a short-term defensive approach, emphasizing sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications[1] - Investors are advised to maintain a low position in defensive stocks such as paper and aviation, which directly benefit from RMB appreciation, especially during the annual report forecast period[1] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Beneficiary sectors are categorized into three tiers: - Tier 1: Cost and debt improvement sectors that directly benefit from RMB appreciation, showing high elasticity[4] - Tier 2: Core assets driven by capital flow, benefiting from increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[4] - Tier 3: Asset revaluation opportunities due to the intrinsic value enhancement of RMB-denominated assets[4] Group 4: Historical Context - Since 2017, the RMB has experienced three rapid appreciation phases, each with different underlying logic and market conditions, including core asset bull markets and significant recovery in exports[5] - The current phase differs from previous ones, characterized by domestic capital dominance and a focus on technology-driven growth rather than economic recovery[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream prices are showing a differentiated trend, with nickel prices rising, egg prices falling, and oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropping. The mid - stream has a low - season for chemical product production, increased coal consumption in power plants, and low asphalt construction rates. The downstream real - estate market is warming up, while domestic flight frequencies are decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices have rebounded significantly, with the price on December 25th at 127,383.3 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.79% [2][37]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices declined on the previous day, with the spot price on December 25th at 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [2][37]. - **Energy**: Crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline. The spot price of WTI crude oil on December 25th was 58.4 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year increase of 4.55%, and the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,356 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2][37]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: It is the off - season for chemical product production [3]. - **Energy**: Coal consumption in power plants has increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction rates are at a low level [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up [3]. - **Services**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [3]. Industry Events - **Production Industry**: On the afternoon of December 25th, four leading silicon wafer companies jointly raised their prices significantly, with an average increase of 12%. The average price increase of various silicon wafer models this week is between 3.3% - 9.8%, mainly due to the large increase in upstream silicon material prices. The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is soliciting opinions on promoting the supply - demand balance of the e - cigarette market [1]. - **Service Industry**: The People's Bank of China and seven other departments have issued a document to support the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor, including exploring digital financial international cooperation and promoting cross - border payments using central bank digital currencies [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the leadership transition at China Poly Group Corporation, highlighting the retirement of Liu Hualong due to age, marking the end of his significant contributions to state-owned enterprises in China [2] Group 1: Liu Hualong's Career Achievements - Liu Hualong played a pivotal role in the merger of China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation and China North Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Group, creating the world's largest and most competitive rail transport equipment company, China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) [3] - Under Liu's leadership, CRRC's revenue and profit metrics consistently ranked first globally in the rail transport equipment sector, with business revenue surpassing the combined total of the second to fourth international competitors [3] - Liu emphasized "technological independence as core competitiveness," maintaining R&D investment at 6% to 7% of revenue, significantly higher than the international average of about 3% [4] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - Liu implemented a strategy of "strategic synergy, resource sharing, and avoiding internal competition," which included unifying overseas bidding teams and reducing procurement costs by 15% to 20% through centralized purchasing and smart manufacturing [3] - He led the establishment of a central research institute to focus on core technologies, achieving world-leading breakthroughs in areas such as speed, energy efficiency, and weight reduction for the CR450 train set [3] - Liu's tenure saw CRRC expand into emerging industries like wind power, deep-sea robotics, and hydrogen energy, with new business revenues growing over 35% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Transition to China Poly Group - In March 2021, Liu transitioned to China Poly Group, a diversified giant with a trillion-yuan business scope, where he set the mission to serve the people's quality of life and aimed for high-quality development [5] - Liu's strategic plan for Poly Group focused on creating an internationally competitive "5+1" business system, enhancing traditional sectors through technological innovation [5] - Under his leadership, Poly Group's total assets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, reinforcing its status as a key state-owned enterprise [5]

个人观点仅供参考，文章中任何内容均不对您构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。 最重要的是，淘气是上周低位反复建议投资者敢于低位加仓和持股的，之前3815点附近分时线低点共 振，淘气有没有反复强调和建议低吸和加仓？现在分时线高点密集共振了，但还没有回踩，那么明显放 量异动个股，先注意控制；还没有动的个股，盯紧等缘分吧！这个时候，没有人阻止你追涨，你愿意 追，你去追就是了！真的，低位不低吸，现在追涨，个别投资者还不服气？真的，你觉得怎么做是对 的，你去干就是了！是不是？但投资者不得不看到，上周低位3815点分时线低点共振的时候，淘气反复 强调会支撑反弹一波，多少人说年底之前没有行情了，元旦之前没有行情了？现在涨了，又喊跨年行情 了？真的，麻烦投资者看看一些大v观点的前后连贯性吧！ 还有，淘气现在也没有说清仓或空仓吧？只是说之前低吸的筹码，或异动明显控制一些；或动静不大就 等一等！不追涨、不激进！这样的建议，错了吗？不合理吗？每次淘气都是苦口婆心，很多投资者当时 不认可，事后行情走出来了后认可了，但此时此刻发生了，又有什么意义了呢？死性不改，还是这样， 真的是"好了伤疤忘了疼"、并且"疼了一次又一次"、最关键的还 ...

离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次，最新报6.99825。 需要明确的是，单日升破关口的意义更多在于心理层面和方向指引。对于A股市场而言，真正产生深远影响的是人民币汇率能否形成一段"稳中有升"的可持 续趋势，而非短暂的投机波动。 当前，推动人民币升值的积极因素正在积累，但趋势的巩固仍需国内经济复苏态势的进一步确认和企业盈利端的实质性改善作为坚实基础。投资者应密切关 注后续关键经济数据的发布以及主要经济体的货币政策动向。 当前A股市场整体估值处于历史偏低区间，人民币汇率的走强，可能成为吸引长线外资重新审视并加大配置中国资产的催化剂，对稳定乃至提振大盘指数起 到关键作用。 人民币升值对上市公司基本面的影响并非"雨露均沾"，而是清晰地划出了一条"损益分界线"。 受损方主要集中于出口导向型行业。对于家电、电子、纺织服装、机械等出口比重较高的企业，人民币升值意味着其产品在国际市场上的价格竞争力相对下 降，或将直接侵蚀其汇兑收益和毛利率。投资者需警惕相关板块可能面临的盈利预期下调压力。 受益方则集中在两大领域。其一是"负债美元化"行业，典型代表是航空业。航空公司拥有巨额的美元负债用以购买飞机，人民币 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global AI infrastructure continues to drive demand in the electronic industry, leading to price increases in technology hardware and metals, while domestic consumption shows marginal improvement in service sectors despite ongoing pressure in durable goods [1][2] - The report highlights a significant increase in high-end memory prices, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 reaching $56.9 and $26.7 respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.1% and 1.8% [3] - The central economic work conference proposed "in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption," suggesting potential unexpected policy space for consumption on both supply and demand sides by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Service consumption shows improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index increasing by 11.2% week-on-week and 56.2% year-on-year, while the Hainan tourism price index rose by 0.9% [3] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with a 21.5% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, although the decline in sales is narrowing [3] - International metal prices have significantly increased due to expectations of monetary easing following a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI, while coal prices have sharply declined [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates a notable recovery in movie ticket prices, alongside strong performance in metals and memory storage prices, suggesting an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors [1][5]. Resource Products - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, with both steel billet and rebar prices rising. Coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others see inventory fluctuations. The national cement price index has also risen [2][24]. - Industrial metal prices have generally increased, with copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead prices rising, while zinc prices have decreased. Most inventories have increased, particularly for zinc and tin [2][21]. Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index have both risen, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor sector. The prices of DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory have increased, reflecting strong demand in the market [5][25]. - The telecommunications sector has seen a three-month rolling year-on-year increase in main business revenue, suggesting robust growth in this area [5][24]. Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with the photovoltaic price index also showing a week-on-week rise. The production of metal forming machine tools has seen a significant year-on-year increase, while the production of packaging equipment has declined [5][22]. - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, indicating a potential slowdown in logistics activity [5][22]. Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, but the wholesale price of piglets has declined. The average price of live pigs has also decreased, indicating mixed trends in the livestock sector [5][18]. - The ten-day average box office revenue has increased, and movie ticket prices have risen, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending in the entertainment sector [5][20]. Financial and Real Estate - The monetary market has seen a net absorption of liquidity, with a decline in A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume. The transaction area of commercial housing has increased, while the listing price index for second-hand houses has decreased [6][29]. Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China has decreased, while UK natural gas futures prices have risen. The average daily power generation of key power plants has shown a widening year-on-year decline [6][32].