第一，接受市场的"分裂期"，放弃"既要又要"的幻想。 在市场量能没有显著放大（今日成交额还缩量 了624亿）的情况下，资金不足以支撑所有板块齐头并进。这种结构性行情将成为常态。我们的策略也 必须从"全面进攻"转向 "结构深耕" ，在一段时间内，重点可能只能聚焦于一两个主线上。 各位朋友下午好，我是帮主。今天收盘，咱们A股市场给大家上演了一出精彩的"人格分裂"大戏。你看 这沪指，低开高走，最终涨了0.85%，稳稳站回了4100点上方；但另一边，创业板却还在水下挣扎，最 终收跌0.4%。再看板块，一边是煤炭、光伏、地产这些传统领域红红火火，涨停一片；另一边却是AI 应用、算力、半导体这些前期明星赛道跌跌不休。同一个市场，两副完全不同的面孔，这到底是怎么回 事？是风格彻底切换，还是资金在玩一场"跷跷板"游戏？咱们来给今天的市场"人格"做一个深度剖析。 今天市场的分裂，本质上是一次 "动能转换"与"高低切换"双重逻辑的共振。先说上涨的这一边，核心 驱动力非常清晰：一是 "现实需求" 。冬季能源保供，直接推升了煤炭、天然气板块的景气预期，这是 看得见摸得着的短期逻辑。二是 "产业催化" 。马斯克团队密访中国光伏企业的消 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-04 警惕上游价格回调风险 中观事件总览 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色：镍、铝价格持续回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回调。3）化工：化工品价格近期波动。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位。3）农业：生猪制品开工上行 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次上行。 生产行业：1）2026年中央一号文件2月3日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。《中共中央国务院关于锚定 农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》提出，锚定农业农村现代化，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以 学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领，以改革创新为根本动力，提高强农惠农富农政策效能，守牢国家粮食安全底线， 持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平，努力把农业建成现代化大 产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 服务行业：1）央行加量续作3个月期买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期 ...

2026.02. 04 本文字数：885，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财阿驴 2月4日，A股三大指数分化，沪指震荡上行。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创综指跌0.98%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 】 | 4102.20c | 34.46 | 0.85% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 100 - 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / | 14156.27c | 29.17 | 0.21% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 1 1 1 V ma | 3311.51c | -13.38 | -0.40% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | VW | 1785.43c | -17.72 | -0.98% | 盘面上，煤炭股掀涨停潮；光伏产业链爆发，太空光伏方向领涨；航空、地产、白酒 ...

沪深两市成交额2.48万亿，较上一个交易日缩量633亿。 2月4日，A股三大指数分化，沪指震荡上行。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创综指跌0.98%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000517 | 荣安地产 | +10.27% | 2.04 | | 600683 | 京投发展 | +10.09% | 6.00 | | 000560 | 我爱我家 | +10.06% | 3.61 | | 600325 | 华发股份 | +9.95% | 4.42 | | 000838 | 财信发展 | +9.92% | 2.66 | | 000042 | 中洲控股 | +7.91% | 9.00 | | 601155 | 新城控股 | +7.62% | 18.08 | | 600791 | 京能量化 | +7.60% | 6.51 | | 001979 | 招商蛇口 | +7.31% | 10.87 | | 600649 | 城投控股 | +6.94% | 5.55 | | 600463 | 空港股份 | +6.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for 2026 is shaped by China's "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing high-quality development and strategic investment opportunities in various sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Macro Trends - The importance of a broad perspective in investment is highlighted, focusing on understanding macro trends and industry dynamics [2][19]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a guiding framework for investment, emphasizing high-quality development and the need for innovative production capabilities [19][20]. - The ongoing global industrial transformation, driven by AI and technological advancements, presents significant investment opportunities in traditional and emerging industries [20][21]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with Chinese companies expected to see a doubling of license-out revenues to $121.6 billion by 2025 [21][22]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively, with major investment banks recognizing its potential as a hub for leading companies in technology and smart driving [23][24]. - The AI sector is seen as a transformative force, with applications in various industries expected to drive significant investment opportunities [24][25]. Group 3: Renewable Energy and New Materials - The renewable energy sector is anticipated to continue its upward trend, with lithium battery technology expected to see significant advancements [25][26]. - The chemical industry is also expected to recover, driven by long-term demand growth and supply-side reforms [25][26]. Group 4: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The financial and real estate sectors are showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions indicating positive market sentiment [26][27]. - Investment opportunities in the insurance sector are expected to improve, alongside a focus on banks and brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities [26][27]. Group 5: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The consumer sector is undergoing a transformation, with new trends emerging in smart home products and lifestyle consumption, driven by younger generations [28][29]. - The aging population is creating new market opportunities in tourism, healthcare, and wellness sectors [28][29]. Group 6: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The emphasis on scientific long-termism in wealth management highlights the importance of strategic asset allocation for sustainable growth [29][30]. - The focus on retirement planning underscores the need for consistent investment strategies that adapt to changing market conditions [30][31].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking the largest single-day drop since April 7, 2025 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.69% to 13824.35 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.46% to 3264.11 points [3] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 260.69 billion, a decrease of 255.8 billion from the previous trading day [3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 4465 stocks declined, while only 741 stocks rose, indicating a broad market sell-off [3] - The median decline across all stocks was 2.15%, reflecting a simultaneous drop in both volume and price [3] Sector Performance - Only two sectors, electric grid equipment and the liquor industry, saw gains, with the liquor sector's core stocks performing particularly well [4] - The banking sector attempted to stabilize the market but ultimately closed down by 0.26% [4] - The most significant declines were seen in cyclical stocks, particularly precious metals, with declines in mining, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, and oil sectors, many of which experienced drops close to 5% [4] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices plummeting to $4559 per ounce, a drop of 3.83%, and oil prices falling by 4.88% [5] - Silver prices also fell to $73.15 per ounce, down by 6.81%, indicating a chain reaction affecting related A-share sectors [5] Economic Indicators - Recent PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a comprehensive decline in economic activity, with manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite business indices all falling below the "50 boom-bust line," indicating a slowdown compared to the end of last year [5] - The real estate and construction materials sectors weakened significantly, influenced by a reported loss of 82 billion from Vanke, compounding the market's challenges [5] Future Market Outlook - The current market downturn is seen as a potential opportunity for the upcoming Spring Festival market rally, with expectations for the index to form a new range-bound trading pattern [6] - The core support logic is based on the prior cooling of large blue-chip stocks under "national team" regulation, which has mitigated some risks [6] - Blue-chip valuations are at historical lows, suggesting limited downside potential for the index, as evidenced by the stable performance of major liquor stocks and the four major banks [6]

不惧急跌！ 这个跌幅，反而可以放心了。去年那种阴跌，包括像1月份那种天天涨起来被汇金砸下去才烦躁，大跌反而如释重负了。 今日，三大指数回调明显，大盘指数总算等到像样的急跌了。市场，本来就是反复震荡的过程，大家必须接受急跌，急涨，盘整等等，一轮牛市带走大部利 润很不容易…… 今日跌幅多的依旧是之前涨多的筹码，有色化工、半导体等等，CPO是高开低走了，这个可能还会补跌，白酒银行没跌，证券冲高回落了，地产回调也明 显，不过刚好是消化业绩利空了。 大概率还会继续惯性回踩，不过向下的空间有限了，这次的急跌很干脆，临近收盘都没有护盘的小动作，白酒银行也没有明显的拉升。 如果，市场想指数重拾走势只需要拉升证券就行了，目前没有什么值得担忧的事情。大盘指数需要一次急跌释放风险，让大家冷静，同时也给市场降温，慢 牛不需要这么高的成交量驱动行情上涨。 离春节还有9个交易日，本周的后半段适合拉升，前半段的下跌是为了奠定后面的上涨。关键时刻，还得证券拉升，白酒银行是防御的属性，只有证券配合 科技拉升，市场才容易继续向上。 今日，所有科技都在跌，不仅仅是半导体，还有恒科也跌得莫名其妙了，一切都没有问题，关键是自己的策略了。当下的位置只需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Penghua Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159117) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year, indicating potential challenges in attracting investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 2, 2025, the ETF closed down 2.44% with a trading volume of 6.52 million yuan [1]. - The fund's management fee is 0.30% annually, and the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The latest share count is 90.40 million, with a total asset size of 97.34 million yuan, reflecting a 37.83% decrease in shares and a 34.25% decrease in total assets since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 174 million yuan, averaging 8.69 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are Yan Dong and Yu Zhanchang, both managing the fund since September 30, 2025, with a return of 7.68% during their tenure [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - Major holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co. (4.39%), Far East Horizon (3.33%), China Shenhua Energy (3.09%), and CNOOC (3.04%), among others, with the respective market values and share counts detailed [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has rebounded to 10.75% as of January 25, 2026, up 2.60% from January 11, 2026 [9] - The land premium rate has increased to 3.6% as of January 25, 2026, with a four-week average of 1.7% [4][13] - Container throughput at ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 7.7% as of January 26, 2026, despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.4% [4][22] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction - The sales of commercial residential properties remain below last year's Lunar New Year levels, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% in the week ending January 31, 2026 [4][13] - The construction industry shows weak performance, with the operating rate lower than last year's Lunar New Year period [4][20] Group 3: Trade and Prices - Agricultural products and oil prices have risen, with egg prices increasing by 3.1% and crude oil prices reaching $65.2 per barrel, up 6.8% [4][36] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has surged by 21.9%, indicating a significant increase in shipping costs [37] Group 4: Financial Markets - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 3.91, indicating better relative value in stocks compared to bonds [11] - The DR007 rate has slightly increased to 1.5926% as of January 30, 2026, reflecting changes in liquidity conditions [45]

| 4). 4300点附近 | 16% | | --- | --- | | 5). 4400点附近 | 22% | | 6). 4500点及以上 | 10% | （感谢申万宏源证券、东北证券相关营业部对本调查的支持。上图为部分调查结果） □ 伴随着A股主要指数在2025年全线收红，近六成受访投资者实现盈利。其中，以人工智能为代表的核 心热点板块在2025年持续上涨，成为贡献投资收益的主要来源 □ 在无风险利率持续下行的背景下，随着股市赚钱效应不断增强，居民存款向权益资产"搬家"的现象在 2025年初现端倪 □ 近八成投资者看涨2026年股市，并且对春季行情充满期待。值得一提的是，投资者对今年上证综指波 动范围的预期"乐观但不激进"，倾向于在指数稳健运行的背景下，把握结构性机会而非博弈指数大幅突 破 ◎记者 汪友若 投资收益连续两年上升 纵观2025年全年，主要宽基股指均在当年4月初触底后一路高歌猛进。上证综指从年内低位的3040.69点 起步，一度冲破4000点大关，全年涨幅接近20%，创下近六年来最佳年度表现；科技含量更高的创业板 指和科创综指全年涨幅更是接近50%。 市场行情的向好直接惠及广大投资者，近六 ...