Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the apparent contradiction between nominal and real GDP growth rates and disposable income growth rates, highlighting the implications for inflation and housing prices in China [1][22]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 3.99%, while the real GDP growth rate is expected to be 5% [1]. - Disposable income growth rates show both nominal and real figures at 5% for 2025, indicating stable consumer prices [1]. - The difference between nominal GDP and real GDP is a critical indicator for determining inflation; when nominal GDP exceeds real GDP, it signals inflation [1][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Housing Market - The article emphasizes that the transition from deflation to inflation is indicated by the positive difference between nominal GDP and real GDP, which is essential for supporting consumer spending and housing prices [1][22]. - Historical data from Japan illustrates that a positive shift in the nominal GDP minus real GDP often precedes a rise in housing prices [3][22]. - Current trends show that the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP has turned negative but is narrowing, suggesting potential future inflation [4][24]. Group 3: Demographic Factors - The birth rate in 2025 is projected to be 7.92 million, which poses long-term implications for housing demand and prices [7][25]. - There is a noted negative correlation between housing prices and birth rates, indicating that higher housing costs may deter family growth [8][25]. - The article argues that stabilizing housing prices at levels affordable for young people is crucial for reversing declining birth rates [25]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article suggests that maintaining affordable housing prices is essential for improving birth rates and that this can be achieved through careful economic policies, including the potential introduction of property taxes after a market stabilization [25].

Group 1: Economic Structure and Wealth - By 2025, the new economy is expected to account for 20.1% of the total economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7% for the first time[2][11] - Financial assets held by residents are projected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by increases in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations[3][13] Group 2: Spending Willingness and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Resident spending willingness has declined from 101.4% in 2021 to 80% in 2025, but is expected to rebound to 107.6% by 2025 due to fiscal and external demand support[4][18] - In December 2025, the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to see a demand growth rate of 8.4%, contrasting with upstream at -6.8% and downstream at 3.2%[5][21] Group 3: Quarterly Economic Data Insights - In Q4 2025, GDP growth was recorded at 4.5%, with a nominal GDP growth of 3.8% and a cumulative annual growth of 5.0%[6][25] - The contribution rates to economic growth in Q4 were 52.9% from final consumption, 16.0% from capital formation, and 31.1% from net exports[29] Group 4: Employment and Consumer Behavior - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December 2025, with a total of 18.006 million migrant workers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[46][39] - Consumer spending growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand[51][43]

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses four macroeconomic counterforces that are expected to strengthen by 2025, potentially leading to a healthier economic environment in 2026, characterized by rising prices, improved corporate profits, and stable employment and consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Four Strengthening Counterforces - **Economic Structure**: By 2025, the new economy is projected to account for 20.1% of the economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7%, marking the first time this has occurred [4][13]. - **Household Wealth**: Financial assets are expected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by growth in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations [5][15]. - **Spending Willingness**: Despite a decline in household spending inclination, the combined spending willingness of three sectors is anticipated to rise from 107.2% in 2023 to 107.6% in 2025 [7][16]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The supply-demand contradiction in the midstream manufacturing sector is rapidly easing, with midstream demand growth projected at 8.4% for 2025, outperforming upstream and downstream sectors [8][20]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis for Q4 - **GDP Growth**: In Q4, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 4.8%, with a cumulative annual growth rate of 5.0% [10][22]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of -13.2% in Q4, with real estate sales area decreasing by -17.0% [23][50]. - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [31][38]. - **Employment Stability**: The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, with a total of 30.115 million migrant workers, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [36][30]. Group 3: December Economic Data Insights - **Production Strength**: December saw industrial output growth of 5.2%, with service sector production index at 5.0% [31][46]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector experienced a downturn, with a sales area decline of -15.6% in December and a significant investment drop of -35.8% [43][44]. - **Price Trends**: In December, the PPI decreased by -1.9%, while the CPI rose to 0.8%, indicating mixed price pressures in the economy [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 national real estate data indicates that while the market is still adjusting, positive factors are accumulating, suggesting a potential recovery in 2026 [1][5]. Price Trends - In December 2025, new and second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3]. - Shanghai showed a relatively better performance, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% month-on-month, making it the only first-tier city with a price increase [3]. Sales Performance - The sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued negative growth trend but with signs of support from both supply and demand sides [1][5]. - In December 2025, new home transaction volumes in first-tier cities showed significant month-on-month growth, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing increases of 56%, 81%, 28%, and 21%, respectively [3]. Market Inventory - By the end of 2025, the nationwide unsold housing inventory reached 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.0% compared to November [6]. - The growth rate of unsold inventory has significantly narrowed compared to previous years, indicating a market self-balancing effect [6]. Policy Signals - The government has released clear "stabilizing expectations" signals for 2026, including policies such as extending the housing exchange tax refund and lowering the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of managing market expectations to stabilize the real estate market, advocating for decisive policy measures to avoid prolonged adjustments [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the effects of various favorable policies will further be released in 2026, leading to positive adjustments and improvements in real estate indicators [1][7]. - The market is anticipated to gradually stabilize and transition towards a phase of high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600246 证券简称：万通发展（维权） 公告编号：2026-004 北京万通新发展集团股份有限公司 2025年年度业绩预亏公告 重要内容提示： ● 本业绩预告的具体适用情形：净利润为负值。 ● 北京万通新发展集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净 利润为-75,000万元到-50,000万元。公司预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益 的净利润为-85,000万元至-60,000万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-75,000万元到-50,000万 元，与上年同期相比，亏损金额有所增加。 2、预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-85,000万元至-60,000万 元。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate market in China is contingent upon the completion of market recovery and clarity in transformation, with significant achievements noted in 2025 and a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Short Cycle Analysis - The total transaction scale in the real estate market showed a clear stabilization trend in the first eleven months of 2025, with some major cities even experiencing slight year-on-year growth, indicating that sales stabilization precedes price stabilization [1] - Market differentiation has intensified, with more active performance in cities with faster-growing new economic drivers and areas with lower supply and inventory pressures, influenced by localized government policies [2] - Policies aimed at controlling supply growth and reducing inventory have been effective, leading to rational behavior among enterprises, with real estate development investment indicators, such as new construction area, declining in 2025 and likely continuing into 2026 [2] - The inventory reduction measures have shown results, with the nationwide unsold commercial housing area decreasing by approximately 3 million square meters from the end of October to the end of November 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of supply-side control measures and demand-side stimulus [2] Long Cycle Analysis - The real estate market is gradually maturing through transformation, with risk clearance efforts in 2025 leading to social and economic stability, laying a solid foundation for future development [3] - Debt restructuring among some real estate companies has achieved positive results, contributing to market recovery [3] - The focus on meeting residents' needs for quality living has become a key theme in the 2025 real estate market, with developers recognizing this as a crucial growth point for the industry's future [3] - Urban renewal initiatives are expected to provide significant new development opportunities for traditional industries, including real estate and construction [3]

Group 1 - The willingness of Chinese households to take out loans has decreased from 99% in 2018 to 94% in 2024, indicating a shift towards reducing debt and increasing down payment ratios [1][14] - The current issue is not the eligibility to purchase homes but rather the affordability and lack of confidence in the future [1][14] - The number of "negative equity" properties is rising, with approximately 700,000 such homes expected to account for 9.8% of total residential sales this year [2][16] Group 2 - By 2027, the number of negative equity homes could increase to 3.3 million, representing 55.4% of that year's residential sales, suggesting significant risk [3][16] - Despite the rising number of negative equity properties, the risk of widespread mortgage defaults remains low, as only 1.2% of mortgage holders have monthly payments exceeding their income [6][19] - The potential for a larger issue lies in business loans, with a forecasted default rate of 4.8% by 2027, which could lead to millions of properties entering the foreclosure market [20] Group 3 - The rapid increase in property listings, with a 50% rise in first-tier cities since 2022, indicates growing selling pressure [8][21] - Although the growth rate of listings has slowed recently, the overall sentiment regarding future property prices is weakening, with more homeowners willing to lower prices [21] - The banking sector is not facing systemic risks from mortgage defaults, but there are structural risks in smaller banks that may struggle under pressure [24][25]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, China's exports continued high - growth, imports rebounded significantly, and the trade surplus expanded. The Fed's January rate - cut probability decreased, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend. The central bank adjusted the structural monetary policy tool rate and commercial real - estate credit policies, aiming to improve capital activation and support the real economy [8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly data from 2023 to 2025 are presented, showing the performance of different industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, and services. The contribution rates and pulling effects of the three industries on GDP are also provided [13][18]. 3.2 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Sector**: The growth rate, added - value of major industries, and production of key products are analyzed. The profit situation of industrial enterprises shows mixed results, with some industries growing and some declining. The inventory of industrial enterprises is at a relatively high level, and enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory [28][43][53]. - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased year - on - year, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased year - on - year but the decline narrowed. The prices of different categories in CPI and PPI showed different trends [60][68]. 3.3 Real Estate Market - In January - November 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. The prices of new and second - hand residential properties in major cities also showed different degrees of decline [122][126][130]. 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total import and export volume reached a record high. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. The export of key products and the import of key commodities are presented in detailed tables [93][100][101]. 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January - November 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment also declined. Investment in different industries showed different trends, with the second - industry investment growing and the third - industry investment declining [114]. 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales is analyzed, and the year - on - year changes in retail sales of different industries above the quota are presented [158][165]. 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers by different means, the subway passenger flow in major cities, and the freight rates of shipping routes are analyzed [168][173][179]. 3.8 Banking and Currency - The new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and money liquidity are analyzed. The central bank emphasizes reasonable interest - rate control to promote the decline of the real - economy financing cost [183][194][200]. 3.9 Bond Market - The issuance of interest - bearing bonds and the yields of long - and short - term treasury bonds are analyzed [213][216]. 3.10 Foreign Exchange and Gold - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index are presented. China's gold reserves increased, and the foreign exchange reserves reached a new high [220][223]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - The central and local general public budget revenues and expenditures are analyzed, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate and new urban employment are presented [232][236][242]. 3.12 Business Climate Survey - The global and Chinese manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI are analyzed. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [245][248][256]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - The US real GDP growth rate, employment situation, treasury bond yields, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate are analyzed [263][266][274].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited structural differentiation and active trading last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4101.91 points, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.00%, indicating resilience in growth sectors despite short-term volatility [1] - The overall market trend favored growth stocks while value stocks faced a pullback, with small-cap and technology sectors being the main focus of capital [1] Industry Performance - Most of the Wind first-level industry indices declined, averaging a drop of 0.44%. The information technology sector led with a 3.37% increase, driven by sustained AI computing demand, accelerated domestic substitution, and expectations of policy support. In contrast, the real estate sector fell by 3.66% due to weak sales data and limited policy effectiveness [1][9] Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 10 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, 1 QDII fund, and 2 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 19.294 billion units [1][16] Fund Performance - The Wind All-Fund Index rose by 0.73% last week, with the equity mixed fund index increasing by 1.52%. However, there was significant differentiation, as the Wind Growth Fund Index rose by 1.88%, while the Wind Value Fund Index fell by 0.31%. The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.17% [1][5]

Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points to 1.25%, below the short-term policy rate of 1.4%[1] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, but these are likely to be used as a reserve tool rather than a routine operation[1][11] - Current monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts rather than comprehensive rate cuts, reflecting internal constraints such as low net interest margins for commercial banks[1][11] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have increased by 1.3% year-on-year[3] - Exports have risen by 6.6% year-on-year[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending is expected to increase in Q1 2026, supported by a significant carryover of surplus funds from 2025[2][12] - The combination of structural monetary easing and fiscal policy aims to effectively expand domestic demand and solidify economic recovery[12] Market Trends - Production remains strong, with high demand in sectors like machinery and textiles, while real estate transactions continue to decline[13][14] - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.82% year-on-year, indicating robust foreign trade momentum[22] Risks - There are uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact economic stability[2][51]