国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本拖累价格，硅铁走势偏弱 | 4 | | 锰硅：成本拖累价格，锰硅走势偏弱 | 4 | | 焦炭：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：观望情绪浓厚，震荡偏弱 | 8 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 9 | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 05 月 07 日 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 马亮 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 maliang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 20 products experiencing price increases, 25 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable from mid-April to late April 2025 [2][3]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 27.5 CNY to 3193.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) rose by 33.3 CNY to 3358.3 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) increased by 17.5 CNY to 3548.8 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) saw a slight increase of 3.0 CNY to 3310.2 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) decreased by 12.0 CNY to 4143.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.3% - Angle steel (5) fell by 18.3 CNY to 3503.7 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.5% [4]. 2. Nonferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 1826.5 CNY to 77680.7 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.4% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 234.6 CNY to 19952.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.2% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 87.5 CNY to 16800.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Zinc ingot (0) rose by 222.9 CNY to 22862.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% [4]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) decreased by 24.6 CNY to 661.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.6% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 8.6 CNY to 867.1 CNY per ton, a rise of 1.0% - Methanol (first grade) saw a slight decrease of 1.4 CNY to 2393.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.1% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) decreased by 188.0 CNY to 6092.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.0% - Styrene (first grade) fell by 169.6 CNY to 7416.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.2% [4]. 4. Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 21.2 CNY to 4460.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.5% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 108.0 CNY to 4924.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.1% - Gasoline (95 National VI) decreased by 83.0 CNY to 8540.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 79.0 CNY to 7018.2 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.1% [4]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) increased by 27.5 CNY to 960.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.9% - Ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) decreased by 5.4 CNY to 520.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) fell by 9.4 CNY to 588.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.6% [4]. 6. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous) increased by 12.7 CNY to 3938.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.3% - Wheat (national standard grade three) rose by 17.8 CNY to 2405.8 CNY per ton, an increase of 0.7% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) increased by 19.6 CNY to 2215.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) rose by 54.0 CNY to 4242.4 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.3% [5].

| 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 | 化工价格 | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | 矿产价格 农产品价格 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | | 单位 | 点 | 点 | हु | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | | 25.04 | 109.9 | 98.4 | 102.4 | 79.3 | 126.5 | 77.2 | 97.7 | | 25.03 | 113. 4 | 100. 1 | 108. 5 | 80. 3 | 131. 4 | 77.9 | 97. 3 | | 月涨跌 | -3.5 | -1.7 | -6.1 | -1.0 | -4.9 | -0.6 | 0.4 | | 月环比 | -3. 1% | -1. 7% | -5. 7% | -1. 3% | -3. 7% | -0. 8% | 0. 4% | | 24.04 | 115.4 | 112.8 | 116.8 | 86.8 | 128.2 | 83.1 | 98.8 | | 年同比 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

技术分析看黑色月报： 震荡走低小阴线，虽有反复势难改 黑色研究团队： 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.28 目录 C o n t e n t s 1 螺纹低开阴锤头，前低一线有反复 2 铁矿震荡小阴线，破位下行是关键 3 双焦继续下跌势，焦炭阴星煤阴线 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 黑色技术分析月报要点： 【黑链指数】黑链指数代表了黑色整体走势，黑色月度上看报收小阴线，减仓放量，连续三个小阴线延续跌势，形成"三个红小兵" 的组合，且本月波幅及成交同步扩大，为推进信号，后市仍有下跌潜能。只是本月有减仓的行为，主要是交割月前一个月移仓换月、 散户退场以及短线价格反弹造成。 【螺纹加权】螺纹加权月线是一个新低阴锤头，减仓缩量，连续三个月以阴线报收，有三个红小兵之嫌。当月走势则是低开、震荡走 低，探底回升。整体呈现二次探底，在前低受支撑的状态，这也是继上个月破位下行，本月继续走低但有反抽的正常走势，从另一个 角度看的话，虽有反复，但整体走势已经进入下跌走势。 【铁矿加权】铁矿加权本月继上月低开低走小阴线，本月高开震 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the "production cut" driving force has cooled down, and the disk profit has declined. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement stage. It is recommended to reduce the single - side exposure and hold a light position during the May Day holiday [4]. - For coking coal and coke, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of top - charged coke, and coking coal auctions continue to weaken. It is recommended to short coal and coke on rallies in May and hold a light position during the holiday [5]. - For ferroalloys, the production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron supply and demand are tightening, while manganese - silicon is still in an oversupply state. It is recommended that industrial customers control risks and silicon - iron can be tried to go long at low prices [7]. - For iron ore, the "small essays" dominate the disk trading logic again. It is not recommended to hold long iron ore orders under the production - limit expectation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On April 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3128 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.29%), HC2601 at 3238 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan, - 1.04%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan, - 1.21%), HC2510 at 3210 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.26%), etc. [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On April 29, RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), etc. [2] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On April 29, the coil - rebar spread was 110 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the rebar - ore ratio was 4.37 (down 0.03), etc. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: On April 29, Shanghai rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), etc. [2] Specific Commodities - **Rebar**: The "production cut" speculation has cooled down, prices and disk profits have declined. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to cut the coke price, coking coal auctions are weak. The fundamentals may weaken in May, and shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: The production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron is in a better fundamental state, and it is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The "small essays" affect the market. High - level hot metal provides some support, but long positions are not recommended under the production - limit expectation [8].

Research Ratings for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market declined yesterday. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume decreased. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar has improved, the impact of tariff policies on steel exports will gradually emerge, and the decline in cold - rolled demand may spread to hot - rolled products. There are also rumors about crude steel production cuts, which affect market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract declined yesterday. Supply has increased significantly, while demand, represented by hot metal production, has also risen. With the increase in port and steel mill inventories, and under the influence of long - and short - term factors, the iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to information related to crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market declined yesterday. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation for the May Day holiday has been completed. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and spot purchases are scarce. Although the operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises has slightly increased, their coking coal inventory is sufficient. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more support policies may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market declined yesterday. The production of coking enterprises in the main production areas is normal, and the supply is relatively loose. The steel billet price has dropped, which has put pressure on raw material prices. Although steel mills have a good demand for coke, their profit margins are limited, so they are cautious about coke prices. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more policy support may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore has remained stable recently. It is expected that the silicon manganese futures price will be weak and fluctuate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The production profit is still in the red, and the production decline has narrowed. The downstream steel procurement price is falling, and the demand support is limited. The cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 15,300 lots in positions. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The current supply - demand situation has improved, but there are potential negative factors such as tariff policies and production cut rumors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 was 709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply has increased, and the demand has also risen. The inventory at ports and steel mills has increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 4,849 lots in positions. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation is completed. Traders are on the sidelines [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. The production of coking enterprises is normal, and the supply is loose. Steel mills are cautious about prices [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The main silicon manganese futures contract was reported at 5758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day, with an increase of 15,565 lots in positions to 405,400 lots. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main silicon iron futures contract was reported at 5608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day, with a decrease of 15,383 lots in positions. The production profit is negative, and the demand support is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 28.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 49.0, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 120.0, an increase of 9.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 99.2, a decrease of 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was 110.7, a decrease of 22.0 from the previous day; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 110.0, an increase of 2.0 from the previous day [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][9][10][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [24][25][29][31][32][34][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes the historical spread charts of the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, and silicon manganese and silicon iron [38][39][41][43]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: It provides the historical profit charts of rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently serves as the assistant director of the Research Institute of Everbright Futures and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently serves as the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [51].

2025年04月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端信息扰动，锰硅低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | ...

五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 | | | 黑色金属早报 | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 煤焦钢矿报价情况 | | | | | 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 折交割品 | | | 加拿大CFR | 172 | -2 | | | | 山西柳林低硫 | 1120 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西柳林中硫 | 1070 | 10 | | | | 蒙5精煤(乌不浪口) | 1030 | 0 | | | | 主焦煤(唐山) | 1205 | 0 | 1048 | | | 目照准一级(现货出库) | 1340 | -10 | 1441 | | | 鄂尔多斯二级 | 1101 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 陕西长治准一 | 1440 | 0 | | | | 出口FOB | 224 | 0 | | | | 普氏指数 | 790 | 1 | | | | 青岛港61.5%-PB粉 | 762 | -2 | 809 | | | 青岛港59.5%-金布巴 | 720 | -1 | 831 | | 铁矿 | 青岛港62.5%-巴混 | 775 | -3 | 79 ...