1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the black commodity futures generally rose and stabilized. The real - estate market received positive macro signals, but the real - estate data from January to May did not improve. The demand in the off - season led to more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and a continuous decline in hot metal production, which suppressed the alloy market sentiment. However, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. The supply of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but the high inventory pressure limited the upward movement of the market. Manganese silicon faced cost and supply pressure. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices and price changes of various black commodity futures on June 17 are as follows: the closing price of rebar was 2981 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; hot - rolled coil was 3093 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; iron ore was 699 yuan/ton; coking coal was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.55 yuan or 0.70%; coke was 1365.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.00%. The basis for rebar was 119, for hot - rolled coil was 107, for iron ore was 21, for coking coal was 120.5, and for coke was - 120.5. [1] Market Analysis - On the demand side, the real - estate market had positive signals but the data from January to May did not improve. In the off - season, steel mills had more blast furnace overhauls, and hot metal production declined, suppressing the alloy market. However, the high profitability rate of steel mills meant weak willingness to cut production, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. [1] - On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but high inventory limited upward movement. Manganese silicon faced cost - inversion pressure, slow sales, and potential new production capacity, which might increase supply pressure. [1] - In terms of cost, coal prices were stable, and the impact on ferrosilicon was limited. The manganese ore market was stabilizing, and coke prices were expected to have a fourth - round reduction. The cost line of manganese silicon was weakly stable. [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, adopt a short - term shock - based approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two. [1] Summary - Without obvious improvement in fundamentals, the improvement in market sentiment had limited driving force for ferrosilicon prices, and it should be regarded as a short - term rebound. For manganese silicon, the price center might move up due to short - term market sentiment, but continuous upward movement required the resonance of macro and reality, and currently the driving force was weak, also regarded as a rebound. [1]

Consumption - In May, the retail sales growth rate reached 6.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%[8] - The increase in retail sales was driven by e-commerce promotions and an additional 2 days of holidays compared to last year, leading to concentrated demand release[2] - Significant improvements were noted in household appliances (+14.2 percentage points to 53.0%) and communication equipment (+13.1 percentage points to 33.0%) sales[9] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%, below the expected 4%, with a monthly decline of 0.7 percentage points to 2.8%[8] - The decline in investment was primarily due to the end of the equipment renewal cycle and a drop in traditional infrastructure and real estate investments[3] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, slightly worse than the expected decline of 10.5%[8] Production - Industrial value-added growth in May was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from April[25] - Manufacturing production saw a significant decline, down 0.4 percentage points to 6.2%, influenced by fewer working days in May compared to last year[25] - The decline in production was exacerbated by weak real estate and export sectors, particularly affecting transportation equipment and electrical machinery[25]

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth in May remains stable, but the structure shows signs of divergence, with retail growth accelerating due to external factors, while fixed asset investment and real estate sales continue to weaken [1][8]. Macro - External factors support retail growth, with tariff reductions not fully reflected in May data, leading to a slight decline in industrial value-added growth to 5.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - May's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% from 6.1% in April, with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing also experiencing declines [2]. - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in 2024, driven by trade-in policies and early promotions [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% in the first five months, with declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments [4][5]. - Real estate sales continue to weaken, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 6.0% decline in sales value in May [6][24]. Strategy - The economic data for May indicates a need for further policy support to stimulate demand, with a focus on stable recovery in the second half of the year [8][20]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors [8]. Real Estate - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with new housing sales declining and investment pressures persisting [24][25]. - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices returned to weakness after touching the 20 - day moving average on Thursday, with both spot volume and price falling. After basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. For hot - rolled coils and rebar, pay attention to the 20 - day moving average on the disk as the resistance level and the re - entry hedging point range [5]. - The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Coking coal spot continued to weaken, with many auctions failing and the cost of coking coal decreasing. The futures market of coking coal and coke weakened due to the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiation results. Macro uncertainties are large, and the market has no stable expectation. In the industry, the demand for five major steel products is seasonally weakening, and the coking coal supply may increase in the future [6]. - For steel, focus on short - side trading. Prefer hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [8]. - For coking coal and coke, based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found, continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. The prices of both are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [9]. - For iron ore, the trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. The decline in the output of five major steel products did not lead to inventory accumulation. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise to a high level, and the market should consider the changes in inventory after the peak season and the stability of steel exports [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On June 12, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2962 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.67%); HC2601 at 3079 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.71%); I2601 at 671 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.07%); J2601 at 1348 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.46%); JM2601 at 779 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan (- 1.95%). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2968 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.70%); HC2510 at 3080 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.87%); I2509 at 704 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan (- 0.21%); J2509 at 1328.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 1.77%); JM2509 at 766.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 2.79%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - On June 12, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; between HC2510 and HC2601 was 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73, unchanged; the rebar disk profit was 184.4 yuan/ton, down 4.3 yuan; the coking disk profit was 309.06 yuan/ton, down 4.89 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Steel: On June 12, Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2890 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, with many auctions failing. The price index of coking coal was 951.7, down 6.1. Port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1180 yuan/ton. For Mongolian coal, prices were under pressure, with downstream buyers having strong price - cutting intentions [6]. Different Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again. For trading, focus on short - side trading, and prefer hot - rolled coils for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [5][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Spot coking coal weakened, and the futures market also showed weakness. Continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, approaching off - season, and decreasing costs [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and pay attention to inventory changes and steel export stability [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a volatile trend [1]. - The coking coal market has a slightly tightened supply and weak demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The coke market has weak terminal demand and high inventory pressure on coke enterprises. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The manganese silicon market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure and weak cost support. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon price will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. - The silicon iron market has limited overall driving forces, but the supply is gradually decreasing. It is expected that the short - term silicon iron price will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar futures prices fell yesterday. The spot price also declined, and the trading volume decreased. The production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar all decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract fell yesterday. The port spot price also declined. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the iron ore inventory increased. It is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price fell yesterday. The spot market is weak, with some coal mines shutting down and downstream procurement being cautious. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. Coke - The coke futures price fell yesterday. The spot price is stable. Due to strict environmental inspections, the overall operating rate has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price weakened yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement has new progress. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures price weakened yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement has new progress. The supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is weak, and the cost is relatively stable. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as profit and spread data between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts, such as the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the spread of inter - period contracts, the spread of inter - variety contracts, and the profit of rebar, to show the historical price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][7][17][25][38][43]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are subject to wide fluctuations under the influence of macro sentiment [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Silicomanganese is expected to have a weak oscillation as the quotes of mining enterprises move down [2][10]. - Coke is expected to have wide fluctuations [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as safety inspections become stricter [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as demand still needs to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 704.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -0.42%. The positions decreased by 12,525 hands. Among spot prices, the prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures declined, with decreases of -0.70% and -0.87% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, both showed certain changes. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 12, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 10.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.1 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 21.53 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 12.4 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.77 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 9.25 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.06 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.04 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 14.07 tons. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 2.553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9% month-on-month; 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons, a daily output decrease of 3.5% month-on-month; and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons, a daily output increase of 2.5% month-on-month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures declined. Spot prices also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross-variety spreads all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 12, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported, and the prices of some grades decreased. The price quotes of silicomanganese 6517 in the north and south were also reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the procurement volume of silicomanganese and 75B ferrosilicon in June compared with May. Comilog announced a decrease in the quotation of Gabon blocks to China in July 2025, and United Mining (CML) also decreased its quotation to China [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures declined, with decreases of -2.17% and -2.03% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were certain changes. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The quotes of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 12 was also provided. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,909 hands, and the short positions increased by 3,349 hands; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract decreased by 803 hands, and the short positions increased by 304 hands [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Steam Coal - **Yesterday's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading yesterday. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 18 lots, and the positions were 0 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The quotes of foreign trade steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 hands [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts all showed certain fluctuations. The prices of log spot products also had different degrees of changes, with some showing slight decreases [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have reached the resistance level of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, if the industry fails to find a better bullish story, prices may face pressure again. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [4][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continues to fluctuate. With the long - term agreement price and quantity discounts from major mines in Shanxi, the cost of coking coal is decreasing. The market has expectations of price cuts. Considering the high uncertainty in the macro - environment and the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is advisable to take a short - side approach in the medium - to - long - term [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the price elasticity increases. The cost support for silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel procurement [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 11, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties showed different degrees of increase. For example, the far - month contract RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.54%; the near - month contract RB2510 closed at 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.67% [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton on June 11, with a change of 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of various products such as Shanghai's rebar, Tianjin's rebar, and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil also had different changes on June 11. For example, the price of Shanghai's rebar was 3100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The price has reached the resistance of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, the price may face pressure again if there is no good bullish story. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot - rolled coils and rebar are around the 20 - day moving average on the disk [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, major mines in Shanxi have increased long - term agreement price and quantity discounts, and the coking coal auction remains weak. On the futures side, the sector continues to fluctuate. After the news of the poor outcome of the China - US talks, the market sentiment turned bearish, and short - sellers started to increase their positions [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: There are rumors of furnace shutdowns in Inner Mongolia's silicon ferroalloy plants. The direct demand is weakening, the cost support is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, the downstream pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5].