美国国债收益率在数据公布后变化不大；10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.5个基点，报4.409%；两年期国 债收益率最新下跌3.2个基点，报3.937%；30年期国债收益率下跌3.6个基点，至4.919%。 ...

日本10年期国债收益率继续上升，现涨3个基点至1.48%。 日本10年国债收益率 ...

Group 1: REITs Market Overview - The REITs index continues to rise, with property types showing strength this week, indicating a recovery in market activity [2][3] - As of June 13, 2025, the total market value of REITs reached 204.08 billion yuan, an increase of 2.01 billion yuan from the previous week [3][4] - The average weekly increase for property-type REITs was 0.95%, outperforming other categories [4] Group 2: H Acid Market Dynamics - The average market price of H acid as of June 13, 2025, was 41,750 yuan per ton, up 5,750 yuan per ton since early January 2025 [6][7] - Supply-demand tightness is expected to push H acid prices higher, with effective domestic production capacity currently below 60,000 tons, leading to a supply gap of over 10% [8][9] - Companies with integrated production capacity for H acid and reactive dyes, such as Zhejiang Longsheng and Jinchicken Co., are expected to benefit from rising prices [9][10] Group 3: North Exchange Market Insights - As of June 13, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 267, with an average market capitalization of 3.046 billion yuan [11] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.11%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 31.28% compared to the previous week [11][12] - The newly listed company, Jiao Da Tie Fa, focuses on intelligent products and services for rail transit, with projected revenue of 335 million yuan for 2024 [12] Group 4: AI Chip Design System Launch - The world's first AI-based chip design system, "Enlightenment," was launched, achieving full automation in chip design processes [14][16] - The system can design a 32-bit RISC-V CPU in just five hours, matching the performance of Intel 486, and has completed its first silicon [16] - This innovation is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency of chip design and development in the semiconductor industry [16] Group 5: New Materials Industry Outlook - The new materials sector is anticipated to enter a growth phase driven by increasing downstream demand and supportive policies [14][25] - Key areas of focus include semiconductor materials, renewable energy technologies, and biodegradable plastics, which are expected to see significant investment and development [19][23] - The industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to its potential for growth and innovation [25]

6月13日，央行公告6个月买断式回购4000亿，本月净投放2000亿，流动性相对充裕。近期债券保持震荡为主，10年期国债收益率围绕1.65%波动。究其原 因，资金利率下行后，存单利率尚未同步下行。目前存单与回购价差处于近年高位，待后续存单利率跟降后，长债利率或将打开下行空间。推荐继续关注 十年国债ETF（511260）。 每经编辑｜叶峰 6月16日国家统计局公布多项月度数据。5月社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，增速创2023年12月以来新高。在今年"贸易摩擦"升温的背景 下，消费的表现相对好于投资。"以旧换新"等政策支持起到了至关重要的作用，并与"618"提前开启形成合力，共同带动5月社零同比进一步扩张。其中， 基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额分别增长14.6%、21.8%、28.3%；限额 以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 另一方面，1至5月，全国房地产开发投资同比降幅扩大，同比下降10.7%。同期新建商品房销售面积同比下降 ...

6月9日-6月13日，全周债市收益率小幅下行，十年国债活跃券在小幅震荡中下行。泓德基金表示，上周 债券市场对中美贸易谈判会谈反应较为钝化，在偏弱的外贸、金融数据以及央行呵护流动性、资金面均 衡偏松下。上周十年国债活跃券250011累计下行1.1bp。上周利率债表现优于信用，信用品种长期限好 于短期限。 泓德基金分析，短期来看，中美谈判形成框架性协议，对债市的利空扰动阶段性解除，上周的社融数据 总量不差，但结构上看政府债和企业债为主要支撑项。从货币政策来看，当前央行呵护流动性的目的较 为明确，资金面整体较为宽松，但前期较为平坦的曲线限制了长端下行空间，不过长端调整压力不大， 未来曲线走陡的概率较高。 上周国内权益市场延续震荡行情，万得全A周跌幅为0.27%，日均成交额维持在1.3万亿元附近。6月13 日在地缘冲突新闻的冲击下，市场有所调整，主要宽基指数平均跌幅在1%左右，全市场成交量放大到 1.5万亿元。行业层面，上周有色金属和石油石化表现较好。 6月13日，广州发布《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》，明确提出全面取消限购、 限售、限价，成为一线城市中首个全面松绑的城市。同日召开的国务院常务会也指 ...

三年期美债收益率涨2.51个基点，五年期美债收益率涨3.51个基点，七年期美债收益率涨4.46个基点。 周一（6月16日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨5.55个基点，报4.4542%，全天处于上涨状态，整 体呈现出N形走势。 2/10年期美债收益率利差涨3.257个基点，报+48.166个基点，亚太盘初至纽约中午窄幅震荡上行，随后 在纽约中午加速上行。 两年期美债收益率涨2.10个基点，报3.9685%，北京时间15:29涨至3.9916%刷新日高，美股开盘以来几 度转跌。 20年期美债涨6.05个基点，30年期美债收益率涨6.25个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in German government bond yields indicates a cooling of inflation concerns among investors following fluctuations in international oil prices amid recent conflicts between Israel and Iran [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.527%, trading within a range of 2.589% to 2.516% during the day [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 1.841%, with a trading range of 1.890% to 1.837% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.1 basis points, settling at 2.986% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 0.631 basis points, reaching +68.172 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The auction for 3-month U.S. Treasury bills held on June 16 resulted in a winning yield of 4.24%, slightly down from the previous yield of 4.25% [1] Group 1 - The winning yield of 4.24% indicates a minor decrease in interest rates for short-term government debt [1] - The previous yield of 4.25% reflects the ongoing fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market [1]

美国至6月16日3个月国债竞拍-投标倍数 2.99，前值2.69。 ...

固收：对股债何时破局的再思考 20250616 摘要 四月对等关税事件后，股市和债市的回踩幅度明显降低，上证指数在触 及 3,400 点以上时，回撤幅度仅为五六十个点，随后反弹，显示市场韧 性增强。 近期市场虽受中美伦敦会谈未取消芬太尼关税及以对伊精准打击等利空 影响，A 股全周累计跌幅约为 0.5%，十年国债利率在 1.6%附近有回踩 但稳住 1.7%左右，市场表现相对稳定。 基金久期中位数持续拉涨至去年底今年初高位，反映市场参与者看好曲 线平坦化趋势，机构倾向于长债以应对超低利率环境。 预计未来一两个月内，上证指数大概率有效突破 3,400 点，或冲击 3,450 点更高位置，十年国债利率可能向下突破 1.6%，或至 1.55 甚至 1.50，股票市场突破概率更大且时间领先。 债券市场有效突破 1.6%需满足 A 股大跌、央行重新买入国债并确认启 动、央行再次降息 10 个基点三个条件，否则难以断定直接跌破。 市场对 A 股短期走势存在悲观预期，但实际跌幅小于预期，表明当前市 场处于震荡上涨的牛市环境，除非出现重大利空，否则大幅下跌可能性 较低。 预计未来几周政策密集发布期，外部环境复杂，中国与美国对话中 ...