印尼矿业协会：美国关税的间接影响包括对煤炭和金属主要市场经济增长的风险。 ...

2025 年 7 月 7 日 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 股指期货将偏强震荡 多晶硅、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻 璃期货将偏强震荡 原油、豆油、天然橡胶期货将偏弱震荡 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3974 和 3983 点，支撑位 3926 和 3900 点；IH2509 阻力位 2742 和 2750 点，支撑位 2707 和 2690 点；IC2509 阻力位 5838 和 5888 点，支撑位 5722 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices have surged over 32% this year, outperforming gold's nearly 20% increase, making silver one of the best-performing major commodities [2] - Silver is still relatively inexpensive compared to gold, with prices on June 16 showing gold at 797 CNY per gram and silver at 10.50 CNY per gram, indicating a growing interest in silver investments [3][5] - Investment in silver products has seen a significant increase, with sales of silver bars and coins rising over 40% year-on-year, and a 20% increase in sales from May to June [5] Group 2 - The surge in silver prices is attributed to policy risks, particularly the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum by the U.S., leading to market uncertainty and a shift of investments into silver futures [5][6] - Silver's industrial demand is rising due to its essential role in technologies such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI hardware, with a projected total demand of 1.164 billion ounces in 2024 [10][11] - The silver market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with limited growth in silver production and historically low global inventories, supporting price increases [13][14] Group 3 - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the relative value of gold to silver, reached 1:100 in June, significantly above historical averages, indicating potential for silver price appreciation [18][20] - Historical data suggests that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 100, it often leads to a period of excess returns for silver, as it tends to revert to historical norms [19][20] - The current market conditions suggest that silver may continue to rise in value, making it an attractive investment option for the long term [22] Group 4 - While silver shows promise for significant price increases, potential economic downturns and inflation risks could suppress industrial demand, necessitating cautious investment strategies [23] - It is recommended that investors allocate 5-15% of their portfolio to precious metals like silver as a form of insurance rather than a primary investment [24] - The disparity between gold and silver prices presents both risks and potential returns, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics over relying solely on technical analysis [26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Aluminum**: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - **Alumina**: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Zinc**: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - **Nickel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - **Tin**: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - **Coking Coal**: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Soybeans**: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Pulp**: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - **Log**: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Fuel，Oil**: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Asphalt**: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - **Short Fiber**: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - **Styrene**: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - **PVC**: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - **VCM**: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - **LPG**: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - **Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route**: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 26 products experiencing price increases, 20 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in late June 2025 compared to mid-June 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 1.0%, while seamless steel pipes remained unchanged [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.2%, while aluminum ingots remained stable [4]. - Chemical products displayed varied trends, with sulfuric acid increasing by 1.7% and caustic soda decreasing by 5.3% [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - The petroleum and natural gas sector saw significant price increases, with gasoline (95 National VI) rising by 3.6% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasing by 0.6% [4]. - In the coal category, prices for anthracite coal decreased by 4.8%, while ordinary mixed coal saw a slight increase of 1.5% [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with corn prices increasing by 1.3% and cotton prices rising by 1.0%, while soybean prices decreased slightly by 0.1% [5]. - The price of urea remained stable, while the price of compound fertilizer decreased by 1.1% [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2,000 wholesalers and dealers, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the market [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone and electronic communication [9].

①美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.77%报44828.53点，标普500指数涨0.83%报6279.35点，纳指涨 1.02%报20601.1点； ②大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊、微软、英伟达涨超1%，脸书涨0.76%，苹果涨0.52%，谷歌涨0.5%， 特斯拉跌0.1%； ③热门中概股涨跌互现，小鹏汽车涨超2%，爱奇艺涨超1%，阿里巴巴、京东跌超1%； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.35%报97.12，离岸人民币兑美元跌84个基点报7.1701； ⑧伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME期镍涨0.35%报15355.00美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.27%报33805.00美元/ 吨，LME期铅涨0.17%报2063.00美元/吨，LME期铝跌0.55%报2605.50美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.61%报 9951.50美元/吨，LME期锌跌0.71%报2738.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨9.92个基点报3.880%，3年期美债收益率涨7.59个基点报 3.837%，5年期美债收益率涨6.95个基点报3.932%，10年期美债收益率涨6.30个基点报4.342%，30年期 美债收益率涨5.42个基点 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in copper prices due to a shortage of non-American supply, driven by a surge of copper materials flowing into the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs [1][3][5] - Analysts warn that the competition for scarce supply may lead to a "short squeeze" scenario, further driving up prices as sellers face immense pressure to deliver physical metal or incur losses on their positions [2][4][6] Group 2 - The influx of copper into the U.S. has resulted in a dramatic rise in prices, with the London copper price reaching nearly $10,000 per ton, marking a three-month high [5] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has implemented new rules to manage large position traders, responding to market volatility caused by buyers seeking to quickly acquire large amounts of metal amid dwindling inventories [2][3] - Production disruptions, such as flooding at Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, have exacerbated supply tightness, contributing to the overall market competition [6]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...