1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - **Eggs**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - **Corn**: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - **Red Dates**: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - **Pigs**: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - **Plastic**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - **Rubber**: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - **Methanol**: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - **Caustic Soda**: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - **Asphalt**: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - **PVC**: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - **Logs**: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - **Urea**: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]

为深入贯彻落实习近平总书记对做好"三农"工作的重要指示精神，积极践行服务实体经济的使命，东证期货2025年持续扎实开展乡村振兴工作，将 行业发展融入服务国家战略，多措并举推进一系列帮扶项目，有效深化产业融合，全面壮大村集体经济，进一步推动乡村发展从"夯实基础"向"全面 振兴"跃升。 一、汇聚东证能量，深化公益帮扶 在过去一年里，东证期货从党建共建、产业振兴、消费帮扶及文化赋能等多方面开展了公益帮扶项目。 （一）强化党建引领，提升帮扶质效 始终坚持党的领导，以党建共建为纽带，与乡村振兴地区党组织深化合作，"用心、用情、用力"实现资源共享、力量融合，深度凝聚发展共识。聚 焦当地党员群众的急难愁盼问题，通过"同上一堂党课"、慰问困难党员群众、支持党建活动室设备更新和搭建爱心图书吧等多种形式，把一件件"关 键小事"办成"暖心实事"。 （四）挖掘红色文化，擦亮公益品牌 2025年度，东证期货携自有品牌"IF公益"继续沿着红军长征足迹，来到胜利会师的终点站——宁夏西吉县，通过深入挖掘西吉县的红色内涵，推动 红色资源在促进村镇产业发展和乡村旅游发展等工作中的创造性转化与创新性发展。 在结对帮扶的兰考县和延长县等地，依托各自 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周三铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、中汽协：1 月份我国新能源汽车产销同比分别增长 2.5%和 0.1%。 2、据 Mysteel 统计，16 家重点房企 2026 年 1 月销售额合计 702.63 亿元，同比下 降 12.8%，环比下降 50.9%。 3、2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村 上涨 0.1%；食品价格下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服 务价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%， 农村上涨 0.2%；食品价格持平，非食品价格上涨 0.2%；消费品价格上涨 0.2%，服 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 务价格上涨 0.2%。 | | | | | 4、大 ...

来源：市场资讯 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 春节期间，地缘风险是影响A股的重要因素之一。其一，美伊局势值得关注，目前美国再次向本国公民 发布撤离提示，局部冲突的风险正在逐步升高；其二，日本右翼政党选举中取胜，对于地区发展的影响 值得长期关注。作为战略储备资源的贵金属和其他有色金属主要计价现有国际秩序的不确定性，春节前 后波动可能增加。对股指而言，当前指数波动率逐渐回落，如果节日期间爆发地缘冲突，指数波动率可 能短期上升。 （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 昨日国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约涨0.05%，10年期主力合约涨0.06%，5年期主力合约涨0.04%，2年 期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行2月11日开展4000亿元14天期和785亿元7天期逆回购。据qeubee统计， 公开市场有750亿元7天逆回购到期，实现净投放4035亿元。资金面来看，DR001上行0.5BP至1.37%， DR007下行2BP至1.54%。短期来看，继央行结构性降息之后财政政策接续发力，稳增长政策持续出台 背景下债市持续走强动力不足， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the content. Core View - The poor retail sales data in the US in December 2025 led to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The weaker US dollar pushed the non - ferrous sector to rebound. Shanghai zinc fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract closing at 24,585, up 140 or 0.57%. The domestic demand side is in the Spring Festival off - season mode, procurement is almost finished, the market is in a state of having prices but no transactions, and the spot premium is stable. On the 11th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 105,250 tons, with 0 - 3C at 19.55. The market will focus on the non - farm payrolls data on Wednesday evening and the CPI inflation data on Friday. Considering the uncertainties during the Spring Festival holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions and pay attention to risk prevention [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 24,550 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,400 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,295 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan or 0.93%, with a position of 5,425 and a decrease of 150 in position. For SHFE zinc 2603, the opening price was 24,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,455 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,555 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.53%, with a position of 60,049 and a decrease of 3,452 in position. For SHFE zinc 2604, the opening price was 24,545 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,505 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,590 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,370 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.47%, with a position of 78,739 and an increase of 1,001 in position [7] 2. Industry News - On February 11, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,380 - 24,555 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,310 - 24,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 40 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there was almost no offer against the market [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,330 - 24,495 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were offered at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract and 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area was to offer against the 2603 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 24,330 - 24,530 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded at 24,260 - 24,430 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 24,260 - 24,430 yuan/ton. Zijin had no offer for the 2603 contract, and Huxin was offered at around 25,360 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingots were offered at a discount of 10 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 24,560 - 24,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were offered at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE inter - monthly spread, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: February 12, 2026 - Research Team: Macro - Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the bond market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in February. Before the Spring Festival, the market environment is relatively warm, and after the festival, the supply pressure will increase. Long - term bonds may be more favorable. In the last trading week before the festival, trading is expected to decline, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The money market remained in a tight balance, but institutional allocation demand continued to improve. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment approaching the long holiday, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed a pattern of short - term increase and long - term decrease, with the decline of long - term active bonds around 1bp. The inter - bank money market tightened, with a net reverse - repurchase injection of 403.5 billion yuan in the open market. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day fund rate dropped about 1.9bp to around 1.54%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Although the current fundamentals are weak, the expected market easing is not strong. The large supply pressure of local bonds in the first quarter is a concern, but the current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not price in the possible future easing. With the support of allocation demand at the beginning of the year and the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the money market, the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2025" on February 10, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and introduce three ways of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [13] - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae expressed her willingness to have dialogue with China, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that such a "dialogue" with confrontation actions was unacceptable [13] - US President Trump said he was considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US - Iran talks is expected to be held next week [14] - During the "good start" deposit - attracting competition of banks before the Spring Festival, small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, and large banks use methods such as giving points and reward rebates. The due deposit funds are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more into low - risk assets [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 11, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentions the inter - period spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Relevant data on the money market are presented, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are provided [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. January non - farm payrolls data was significantly better than expected, with 130,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut further cooled down, causing the prices of gold and silver to plunge in the night session. Precious metals may enter a stage of correction in the short term. The CPI data to be released this Friday remains the core focus of the market. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - **Domestic Futures**: Shanghai gold rose 0.44% to 1,130.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 20,965.00 yuan/kilogram. [2] - **International Futures**: COMEX gold rose 1.51% to $5,107.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.56% to $84.05 per ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the U.S. dollar index was 96.90. [2] 3.2. U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. January seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, the largest increase since April 2025, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%. [2][4] - Job growth in January was mainly driven by healthcare and social assistance. Healthcare added 82,000 jobs, social assistance added 42,000, and the construction industry added 33,000 jobs. [3] 3.3. U.S. Fiscal Data - In January, the U.S. budget expenditure was $655 billion and revenue was $560 billion, both reaching record highs for the same period. The government budget deficit was $95 billion, higher than the expected $86.5 billion. The federal deficit so far in fiscal year 2026 is $697 billion, narrowing compared to $840 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. [3] 3.4. Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily remain on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 20,000 - 21,800 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.5. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all decreased; LBMA gold's closing price decreased slightly, while the closing price of Shanghai gold futures rose. [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price and open interest decreased, and inventory decreased; LBMA silver's closing price rose, and the closing price of Shanghai silver futures also rose. [6] 3.6. ETF Holdings - **Gold ETF**: The holdings of most gold ETFs decreased slightly, while PHAU UK's holdings increased slightly. [62] - **Silver ETF**: The holdings of SLV US and ETPMAG Australia increased, while the holdings of PSLV Canada decreased slightly. [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, the strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they may enter a phased correction in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For various metals, their prices are expected to fluctuate. For energy and chemical products, different strategies such as taking profits on rallies, waiting and seeing, and short - selling on highs are recommended according to different situations. For agricultural products, different investment suggestions are given based on the supply - demand situation of each variety [4][6][9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Chinese government promotes AI innovation and development, and the US has positive employment data and fiscal deficit information. Elon Musk plans to build an AI satellite factory on the moon, and Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The divergence in US monetary policy expectations suppresses risk appetite in the capital market. Domestically, liquidity tightens seasonally before the Spring Festival. In the medium to long term, the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond prices show small changes. The CPI in January 2026 is lower than expected, and the PPI improves. The Ministry of Finance issues RMB 14 billion in treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of RMB 40.35 billion [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be strong and volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise. The US non - farm payrolls data is better than expected, and the unemployment rate drops. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down, and the prices of gold and silver drop at night [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US employment data is strong, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down. Precious metals may enter a phased correction. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1200 yuan/g and for Shanghai silver at 20000 - 21800 yuan/kg [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data is good, and copper prices rise. LME copper inventory increases, and the domestic spot is at a discount. The import of refined copper is at a loss, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widens [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US and China plan to increase copper reserves. The US economic data is volatile, and the manufacturing industry is strong. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is high. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai copper at 101000 - 104000 yuan/ton and for LME copper at 13100 - 13400 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation in the Middle East affects oil prices, and aluminum prices rise. Domestic aluminum inventories accumulate, and LME aluminum inventories decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, but LME aluminum inventories are low, and the price of US aluminum is at a premium. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai aluminum at 23300 - 23800 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum at 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots starts to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation is average [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry is weak, but the strong US PMI may drive zinc prices up [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rise. The inventory of lead ore is higher than in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate is low. The inventory of waste batteries rises, and the social inventory of lead ingots accumulates [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic lead industry is weak. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise significantly. The spot premium is stable, and the price of nickel ore is stable. The price of nickel iron rises [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals and risk assets rebound, but nickel faces fundamental pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range for Shanghai nickel at 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel at 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. The production of refined tin in Yunnan is stable, and that in Jiangxi is low. The demand for downstream products is weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals stabilize, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for domestic tin at 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and for overseas tin at 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The production and sales of power and energy - storage batteries in January increase year - on - year [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for lithium is strong, and the supply is affected. The game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect lithium prices. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises slightly. The domestic spot is at a discount, and the overseas import is at a loss. The inventory of futures increases [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mine in Guinea is on strike. The over - capacity situation of alumina is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulates. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 at 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. The supply of raw materials recovers, and the social inventory increases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The stainless steel fundamentals are supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract at 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds slightly. The inventory decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy rises. Although the demand is average, the price is supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw materials [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show small changes. The inventory of rebar accumulates, and the demand for hot - rolled coil is relatively stable [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The carbon - emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The black series is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and demand recovery [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreases, and the port inventory accumulates [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment enters the off - season, and the inventory pressure is high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic iron - making production [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [36][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas coal - related disturbances boost sentiment, but the short - term upward drive is weak. The supply is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and the price may correct. Coking coal may rise smoothly from June to October [39][40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases. Soda ash prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for glass and soda ash is weak. Glass is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range at 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to be weak, with the reference range at 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rise slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fall slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall slightly, and polysilicon prices rise slightly. The supply of industrial silicon may contract, and the demand for polysilicon decreases [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Polysilicon's supply decreases, and the inventory may decrease slightly. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [52][54][56]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices follow the market to rebound. The opening rate of tire enterprises decreases, and the inventory accumulates [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to reduce risks. It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and use hedging strategies [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [63][64]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol change slightly [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is advisable to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [66]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea change slightly [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals of urea are expected to be negative. It is advisable to short on highs [68]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene rises, and the price of styrene is mixed. The inventory of styrene accumulates, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply is abundant. It is advisable to gradually take profits [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rise. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulates [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and operation [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rise. The supply load is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production. The valuation is neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound [74]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rise. The supply is in high - maintenance, and the demand decreases. The inventory accumulates [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA enters the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee is expected to be stable, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term [76]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rise. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. The inventory accumulates [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [78]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PE rises, and the spot price falls. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may bottom out. The PE valuation has room to decline, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The demand is weak in the off - season [80]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PP rises, and the spot price is stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [82]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show mixed trends. Some regions have more slaughter, and some regions have less [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply is large, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term demand may recover, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [85]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and some regions decline. The supply is stable, and the demand weakens [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the spot price is likely to fall. It is advisable to short the near - month contract. The long - term production capacity reduction needs to be observed [87]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic price of soybean meal is stable, and the price of rapeseed meal rises. The global soybean supply and demand are balanced, and the US soybean export decreases [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in US soybean procurement may increase the supply pressure and import cost. The protein meal price is expected to fluctuate [90]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats fall. The domestic inventory of oils and fats increases, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil change [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The consumption of oils and fats increases more than the production. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [93]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price is stable. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data change [94][95]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is advisable to wait and see [96]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rises. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data are neutral [97][98]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream opening rate and the new cotton target price policy. It is advisable to go long at the lower end of the shock range [99].

Core Insights - The introduction of "insurance + futures" for pig feed has provided small-scale pig farmers like Zhao Yingqiang with new financial tools to manage price volatility, significantly improving their economic stability [1][5] - The project, initiated in 2024, faced initial challenges in educating farmers about futures and insurance, but has since gained traction, with increasing participation and understanding among local farmers [3][4] Group 1: Financial Tools and Their Impact - The "insurance + futures" model allows farmers to hedge against rising feed prices, providing a safety net that was previously unavailable [1][5] - Farmers have begun to understand the importance of these financial instruments not just for compensation but as a means to plan their production more effectively [3][5] Group 2: Community and Government Support - Local government support has been crucial, with subsidies reducing the cost of insurance premiums for farmers to as low as 25%-30% [4] - The outreach efforts by insurance and futures companies have helped bridge the knowledge gap, fostering a better understanding of financial products among farmers [2][4] Group 3: Behavioral Changes Among Farmers - Farmers are increasingly proactive in seeking information about insurance and futures, indicating a shift in mindset towards risk management [3][5] - The case of Zhao Yingqiang exemplifies how financial tools can instill confidence in farmers, allowing them to focus on their operations without the constant anxiety of market fluctuations [5]