1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy and chemical products are experiencing high volatility. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities have led to supply shortages, driving up prices. The future trends of various products depend on the development of the geopolitical situation, with the overall energy and chemical sector expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors dominate oil prices, and the spread between domestic and international markets is widening. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating upwards. If the conflict eases, oil prices may peak and fall; if the situation persists, there is further upward potential [7]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is being released. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory pressure [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium has increased significantly. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation will put pressure on prices. The short - term trend depends on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. Although facing some negative factors, its current low valuation may cause it to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitical factors, it shows an oscillating upward trend. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market is trading on the geopolitical premium [26]. - **Urea**: Supported by demand and policy guidance, it shows an oscillating pattern. Supply is stable at a high level, and demand is gradually increasing [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The price limit was reached, and the short - term price is strong due to the resonance of cost and supply - demand factors. There is an expected reduction in imports, and the de - stocking pattern in the second quarter is expected to strengthen [20]. - **PX**: The price is expected to be oscillating upwards in the short - term, and the mid - term strategy is to go long on dips. The supply is decreasing while the demand is increasing, and the fundamentals are slightly strong [12]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, and the processing fee is significantly compressed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating upwards, following the movement of upstream products [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost support is significant, and the spot price adjustment is relatively slow. It is expected to follow the upward trend of upstream products in the short - term, with relatively large price volatility [21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The sharp rise in crude oil and upstream raw materials has driven the recovery of the downstream trading atmosphere. The absolute price follows the raw material price, and the support for the processing fee is increasing [23]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Significantly boosted by the raw material end, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Boosted by raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Boosted by the raw material end, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term. There is a potential reduction in imports, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [31]. - **Styrene**: Driven by device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations, it shows an oscillating upward trend. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve [17]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market should be viewed with caution. High inventory is a major pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. High inventory and cost factors put pressure on the market, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different periods [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, along with their changes [40]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are given, indicating the changes in spreads [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is summarized as the relevant sections mainly list the product names without detailed data analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and industrial product index all show an upward trend, with increases of 1.60%, 1.76%, and 1.48% respectively [282]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on March 2, 2026, shows a significant increase, with a daily increase of 5.20%, a 5 - day increase of 3.73%, a 1 - month increase of 10.86%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.60% [284].

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 3 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 140,890 | -670 | 5, ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 3 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货3月2日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 62, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, with historical trends available for reference [5][8]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The visit of German Chancellor Merz to Hangzhou Yushu Technology on February 26 has significantly boosted market confidence in China's humanoid robot technology. 2026 is anticipated to be a year of mass production, with domestic companies taking a leading role in the global supply chain, resulting in substantial cost reductions and accelerated commercialization. Continuous capital inflow into robotics ETFs is expected as the sector transitions from "theme speculation" to "performance realization" [5]. - **Power Equipment Theme**: The global AI data center (AIDC) is creating a rigid demand for high-power, high-stability transformers due to its massive energy consumption. The supply-demand situation is severely imbalanced, with delivery times in the U.S. market extending to 127 weeks. Additionally, China's State Grid is set to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on new power systems, providing clear long-term order support for the industry [5]. - **Chemical Industry Theme**: The expansion of domestic demand under the 14th Five-Year Plan, coupled with the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is expected to boost chemical product demand. The industry has established a dual bottom in supply and demand, with policy support for capacity reduction and continuous capital expenditure contraction leading to ongoing supply optimization. A cyclical turning point is anticipated in 2026, resulting in a "Davis Double Play" of valuation and performance increases [5]. Related Stocks - **Robotics**: Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050), Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [5] - **Power Equipment**: China Western Power (601179), TBEA (600089) [5] - **Chemicals**: Yuntianhua (600096), Satellite Chemical (002648) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the futures market has been reduced. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [23]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the downstream production start - up rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and there is still room for valuation to rise in the medium term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil and go long on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. However, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and de - stocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 43.50 yuan/barrel, a rise of 8.98%, at 527.80 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 263.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.00%, at 3186.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 310.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.99%, at 3757.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.12 million barrels to 11.02 million barrels, a 1.07% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.66 million barrels to 16.64 million barrels, a 4.15% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 5.46 million barrels, a 21.96% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 5.55 million barrels, a 4.93% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.59 million barrels, a 12.55% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory decreased by 1.99 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 4.21% decrease [2][3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Jiangsu changed by 126 yuan/ton, Lunan by 60 yuan/ton, Henan by 55 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 176.00 yuan/ton, at 2365 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 171 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 30 yuan/ton, at 1817 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, crude oil has a driving force to continue rising, and butadiene rubber also has a driving force to follow the rise. Rubber RU and NR are expected to fluctuate strongly. The bulls believe that the current situation of rubber forests in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production increase, the seasonality of rubber usually turns up in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The bears believe that the macro - expectation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, 18.78 percentage points higher than last week and 36.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, 22.04 percentage points higher than last week and 43.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 tons, a 7 - ton increase, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the festival. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 15950 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2055 (+10) dollars, STR20 mixed was 2055 (+10) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12500 - 12600 (+300) yuan [12][13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 76 yuan, at 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4630 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 238 (- 46) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 132 (+6) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2200 (- 50) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (+5) dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 636 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+1) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: On the fundamental side, the cost - side East China pure benzene was 6265 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 6551 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene basis was - 286 yuan/ton, a 381 - yuan/ton narrowing; on the spot - futures side, the styrene spot was 8000 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase; the styrene active contract closing price was 7966 yuan/ton, a 442 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, a 92 - yuan/ton weakening; the BZN spread was 140.37 yuan/ton, a 11.13 - yuan/ton decrease; the EB non - integrated device profit was 20.15 yuan/ton, a 216.95 - yuan/ton increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton narrowing; the upstream operating rate was 74.24%, a 3.16% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 tons, a 1.75 - ton inventory increase; the demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene operating rate is oscillating at a high level. The styrene port inventory is continuously increasing; the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is oscillating and rising. The pure benzene port inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the styrene port inventory is continuously decreasing. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired. Wait for it to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6991 yuan/ton, a 394 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6800 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 191 yuan/ton, a 144 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, a 0.76% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 57.97 tons, a 23.60 - ton inventory increase, and the trader inventory was 4.69 tons, a 2.32 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, a 1.58% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton narrowing [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the futures market. The supply pressure has eased in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. It is a seasonal small peak season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6998 yuan/ton, a 387 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6815 yuan/ton, a 185 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 183 yuan/ton, a 202 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, a 0.26% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 73.99 tons, a 34.87 - ton inventory increase, the trader inventory was 24.97 tons, a 7.3 - ton inventory increase, and the port inventory was 8.86 tons, a 1.57 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton widening. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton narrowing [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report indicates a moderate production increase in the second quarter, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has eased; on the demand side, the downstream operating rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 442 yuan, at 7836 yuan, the PX CFR rose 67 dollars, at 999 dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was 136 yuan (+94), and the 5 - 7 spread was 34 yuan (+64). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a 0.4% increase; the Asian load was 84.9%, a 1.2% increase. In terms of equipment, a 2.5 - million - ton device of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, the maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and an overseas device in Kuwait was restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 1.8% increase. In terms of equipment, one set of Yisheng New Materials was at 50% load and one set was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 41.5 tons of PX to China in February, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a 190,000 - ton inventory increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 295 dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 dollars (- 8), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 dollars (- 14) [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. At the same time, unexpected events in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of domestic refineries. The current valuation

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has led to a sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and large - scale retaliation have significantly affected energy, shipping, and financial markets [1][22]. - In the short - term, market volatility will be rapidly amplified, and a "gold - oil rising together, risk assets under pressure" pattern may emerge. It is recommended to reduce speculation, increase risk awareness, and shift from unilateral strategies to hedging transactions [3][28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iran's Tense Situation and Strait Closure - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large - scale air strike on Iran. Iran retaliated, and the conflict caused casualties and damage. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei died, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [8]. 3.2 Middle East and Iranian Oil Supply - The Middle East is a major oil - producing region, accounting for over 1/3 of global crude oil production. As of January 2026, the daily crude oil production of OPEC member countries in the Middle East was about 2,410 million barrels. Saudi Arabia is the second - largest oil - producing country globally, and Iran is the seventh - largest, with a daily production of 313 million barrels [9]. 3.3 Impact Analysis of Closing the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. It is of great strategic and economic significance, with countries around it having large oil and gas reserves. It is the second - largest global seaborne oil channel, with a daily oil transport volume of 20.3 million barrels, accounting for 27% of global oil maritime trade [11][12][19]. - In 2025, Asian countries were the main destinations for crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. China, India, South Korea, and Japan together accounted for about 69% of the total crude oil transported through the strait [21]. 3.4 Impact Analysis of Iran's Situation on Energy - Chemical Products and Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Impact on Energy - Chemical Products - The situation in Iran has a direct and severe impact on the energy market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a daily supply gap of about 18 million barrels of crude oil globally and interrupt about 100 million tons of LNG trade annually. It also affects the supply of fuel oil, methanol, etc., and strengthens the cost support of downstream chemical products [1][22][25]. - The shipping market will be affected. The closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz will increase shipping costs, and the war - risk premium for oil tankers may rise by over 300%. Container shipping companies may detour or suspend services, pushing up freight rates [2][26]. - The escalation of the situation in Iran will impact global risk appetite. In the short - term, the market may show a pattern of "gold and oil rising together, risk assets under pressure", and gold's safe - haven property will be more prominent [2][26]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategies - In the short - term, market volatility will increase. It is recommended to reduce speculation, increase risk awareness, and wait for the market to develop before taking appropriate actions. It is also suggested to shift from unilateral strategies to hedging transactions, such as long - crude - oil and short - chemical - products operations during the escalation of the situation and the opposite when the situation cools down [3][28][29].

Core Viewpoint - China National Chemical Corporation (Sinochem) and Bank of China signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement in Xiong'an New Area, Hebei, establishing a long-term, stable, mutually beneficial partnership for extensive collaboration across multiple fields [1] Group 1 - The agreement aims to foster a comprehensive strategic cooperation relationship between the two entities [1] - The collaboration will cover various sectors, indicating a broad scope of potential joint initiatives [1]

Investment and Production Indicators - The overall performance of investment-related high-frequency data in the first week after the holiday was weaker than the same period last year, with only the full steel and semi-steel tire operating rates better than last year's levels[2] - The operating rate for asphalt sample enterprises was 21.4%, up 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, but down 24.9% year-on-year[9] - The national electric furnace operating rate was 26.28%, down 5.77 percentage points week-on-week, and down 53.4% year-on-year[11] - The capacity utilization rate for steel mills was 86.09%, down 0.24 percentage points week-on-week, and down 1.1% year-on-year[44] Production and Price Trends - The average daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.029 million tons, an increase of 83,000 tons from early February, but down 5.7% year-on-year[72] - The price index for rebar fell by 0.3 yuan/ton to 3288.2 yuan/ton[116] - The average price of cement in East China remained stable at 412 yuan/ton, while the price in Southwest China dropped by 8 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton[107] - The average price of lithium carbonate rose to 167,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 27,000 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 118.3%[142] Real Estate and Consumption Insights - The number of signed commercial housing contracts in 30 cities was still lower than the same period last year, despite a positive trend in second-hand housing listing prices starting from the second week of January[2] - Domestic and international flight numbers post-holiday were higher than last year, with domestic flights exceeding 100,000 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a recovery in travel demand[2] - Consumer demand for goods and services during the holiday period was better than last year, suggesting a significant increase in consumption growth for the first two months compared to the previous year[2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in Iran significantly impacts the global and Chinese chemical industry through four main pathways: cost escalation, logistics disruption, supply contraction, and risk premium [1]. Group 1: Oil Cost Increase - The most direct impact of the Iranian situation on the chemical industry is the increase in oil costs, which affects the entire chemical supply chain and determines the overall direction of the sector [3]. - Iran's oil production remains stable at 3.2 to 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 3.5% to 4% of global oil production, with exports between 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels per day [3]. - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil transportation, handling 21% to 30% of maritime oil trade, with a daily flow of about 20 million barrels [3]. - Three scenarios for oil price increases are outlined: 1. Limited friction scenario: Brent oil price rises by $5–10 per barrel, leading to moderate cost increases in the chemical sector [4]. 2. Shipping disruption scenario: Oil price rises by $15–30 per barrel, with costs fully under pressure [4]. 3. Extreme blockade scenario: Oil price spikes to $120–150 per barrel due to severe supply interruptions [4]. - The increase in oil costs will lead to significant profit differentiation within the industry, benefiting upstream oil and gas extraction and oil services, while downstream sectors like plastics and textiles face continuous profit pressure [5]. Group 2: Strait of Hormuz Blockade - The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amplifies price elasticity and market volatility, creating a dual impact alongside rising oil costs [7]. - The logistics disruption occurs through three main channels: 1. Physical supply interruption, leading to reduced effective supply and delayed shipping times [8]. 2. Increased logistics costs due to soaring shipping rates and insurance premiums, which will be passed on to product prices [8]. 3. Global supply chain rebalancing, forcing Asian buyers to seek alternative sources, raising prices across the board [8]. - The impact of logistics disruption varies significantly based on the import dependency and Middle Eastern supply share of different products [9]. Group 3: Impact on Key Chemical Products - Methanol and LPG are the most significantly affected products due to supply contraction, cost increases, and logistics disruptions, with methanol being particularly elastic [11]. - Iran is the second-largest methanol producer globally, with 80% of its production for export, making it critical for China's methanol supply [11]. - LPG prices are closely tied to oil prices, with a significant portion of imports coming from Iran, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [13]. - Other chemical products like polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and styrene are primarily influenced by oil cost transmission, with varying degrees of impact based on domestic self-sufficiency and import structure [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Group 4: Overall Impact Summary - The Iranian situation's impact on the chemical industry is characterized by a core driving force of rising oil costs, a secondary amplification from shipping disruptions, and product-specific supply-demand dynamics [22]. - The elasticity of different products is ranked from strongest to weakest: methanol > LPG > ethylene glycol > pure benzene > PX > styrene > polypropylene/polyethylene > PTA [23]. - Beneficiaries of the situation include upstream oil and gas extraction, coal-based methanol, and logistics companies, while downstream sectors like plastics and textiles face ongoing profit pressure [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately, with broad - based indexes approaching previous highs. Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to price increase expectations, while the consumer sector回调 after concentrated holiday consumption. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components. Before the specific policy directions are determined, the market may engage in games around the Two Sessions themes, and the macro - environment is generally optimistic before Trump's planned visit to China at the end of March [3][11][12]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. Although there was an increase in the willingness to take profits after the festival, the sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [4][13]. - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including two stock funds and two bond funds, which released the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 1.98%, 1.08%, 1.05%, 4.32%, and 4.34% respectively. The total market trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. However, several broad - based index ETFs faced slight capital outflows, with the share of some ETFs decreasing by over 2 billion [11]. - Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to the relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai and the geopolitical situation in Iran. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components, while the consumer sector回调 after the holiday [11]. - Geopolitical events may bring short - term investment opportunities in the stock market, but attention should be paid to whether the conflict will escalate. The market is in a policy observation window before the Two Sessions, and the "wait - and - see" attitude of investors is the core reason for the market's lack of a clear main line [12]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 0.23BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.46BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield rose 2.66BP to 2.27%. The short - term adjustment was mainly concentrated in the ultra - long end, and the 10 - year yield recovered quickly [13]. - The sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the future, the risk of short - and medium - term adjustment is limited, and the short - term is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [13]. - Last week (2026.02.23 - 2026.02.27), U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board. The 1 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10BP to 3.38%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 11BP to 3.97% [14]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.08% to 1035.78 points. In the primary market, 10 new public REITs made progress [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including Morgan Asia Equity High - Yield Fund, Taiping Greater China New Dynamic Equity Fund, Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund, and Huaxia Select RMB Investment - Grade Income Fund, covering two stock funds and two bond funds [16]. - The new regulations relaxed the sales ratio limit from 50% to 80%, releasing the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - **Active Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds according to performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [19][20]. 3.2.2 Investment Style Index - **Value Equity Fund Selection**: The index includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [23]. - **Balanced Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [23]. - **Growth Equity Fund Selection**: The index aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27][28]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme Index - **Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - **Consumer Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative consumer - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31]. - **Technology Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative technology - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **High - end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative high - end manufacturing - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - **Cyclical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative cyclical - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money Market Enhancement Index - **Money Market Enhancement Strategy**: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a curve that exceeds money market funds. It mainly allocates money market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a smooth curve on the basis of controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [50]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds, balances coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 10% and selects 10 funds each period. It focuses on funds with an equity center (total equity position after considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 20% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 30% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects bond - type funds with an average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [63]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds [67]. - **REITs Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly infrastructure projects [68].