1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

化工日报 | 2025-05-27 下游减产拖累，聚酯产业链震荡偏弱 市场要闻与数据 周一PTA期货高开低走，聚酯减产下震荡偏弱，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘， 现货基差走强。个别主流供应商出远期货源。5月主港在09升水165~170附近成交，价格商谈区间在4875~4950附近。 6月中上09+170~180附近有成交。7月中上在09+110有成交。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点美伊核谈和6月1日的欧佩克+八国部长级会议，目前暂无消息指引，油价盘整。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN266美元/吨(环比变动+6.00美元/吨）。近期国内PX负荷整体提升，一方面是集中检修期 陆续结束，另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复，PXN有所回落，不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张，尤其 美金货买气偏强，关 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX unit maintenance ended and units returned, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon units also recovered. PTA basis weakened, and spot selling pressure increased. The positive spread in the market has weakened, and polyester factories' destocking is nearing completion. Polyester may experience a slight production cut [2]. - MEG market: East China ethylene glycol port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol units has recovered, but coal prices have started to rise. With the upcoming maintenance of mainstream ethylene glycol units, it will enter a destocking phase [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price was 452.8 yuan/barrel, with a change of 6.90 yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX was 834, up 8 from the previous value. PX - naphtha spread was 266 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA main contract futures price was 4,716 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4,875 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee was - 23.0 yuan/ton, and the basis was 168 [2]. - **MEG**: Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot was negotiated at 4,531 - 4,533 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract futures price was 4,403 yuan/ton, and the basis was 100 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price was 6,990, FDY150D/96F was 7,230, DTY150D/48F was 8,220, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 6,660, semi - bright polyester chip was 5,905 [2]. 2.开工情况 - **PX**: PX operating rate was 77.29%, up 1.89% [2]. - **PTA**: PTA operating rate was 78.25%, down 1.03% [2]. - **MEG**: MEG operating rate was 50.00%, down 1.60% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Polyester load was 90.75%, down 0.36% [2]. 3. Sales and Production - **Polyester Filament**: POY sales - to - production ratio was 36%, FDY sales - to - production ratio was not provided, DTY sales - to - production ratio was not provided [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio was 45%, down 15% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Polyester chip sales - to - production ratio was 39%, up 13% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further production cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price fluctuates widely due to the intersection of production increase and geopolitical factors, and the chemical industry shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner [1]. - The international crude oil supply - demand is likely to become looser in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term oil price is bearish. The polyester downstream has improved significantly, with PTA showing a slightly stronger trend in a volatile manner and ethylene glycol slightly strengthening. The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. The LPG price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner in the short term. The BR price is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long - term. The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. The container shipping index for European routes is recommended for short - term observation [7][10][11][12][13][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint Strategy Summary - **Price Monitoring**: The report provides the closing price monitoring data of various energy and chemical products, including the current value, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and weekly price trends of products such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, various types of crude oil, natural rubber, and chemical products [6]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: Different investment and trading views are given for various energy and chemical products. For example, the short - term view on crude oil is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. For natural rubber, the short - term view is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading [7][9]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. OPEC+ members are discussing further production increases, and Kazakhstan may exceed its production plan [8][21]. - **Demand**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to global crude oil demand forecasts, with a general trend of weakening [8][21]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory and related product inventories have different changes, with the commercial inventory increasing and the Cushing inventory decreasing [8][21][106]. - **Policy and Geopolitics**: OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear facilities all affect the oil price [8][21]. - **Market Performance**: The oil price fluctuates widely. As of May 23, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil all show a downward trend on a weekly basis [24]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term oil price is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include OPEC+ production cut policy changes, Middle East geopolitical situation disturbances, and US policy uncertainties [8][21]. 3.3 Natural Rubber (RU&NR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather and other factors. The raw material acquisition price in Yunnan maintains a high - level shock, and the raw material output in Hainan increases but is still lower than last year's level. In Thailand, the new rubber output is low at the beginning of the tapping season, and in Vietnam, the fresh rubber supply is restricted by rainfall [9]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises shows a mixed trend, and most enterprises have general sales and inventory pressure, with a potential decrease in the capacity utilization rate next week [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts of RU and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [9]. - **Other Factors**: The profit, basis, spread, and macro - policy all have an impact on the rubber price [9]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [9]. 3.4 Polyester (TA&EG&PF) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The spread between PX and naphtha and MX has increased, prompting some PX producers to seek MX supplies, and the net profit of the reforming unit has recovered [10]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has recovered, the polyester load remains at a high level of 94%, and the polyester inventory has been significantly reduced [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has declined, and PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle [10]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all affect the market [10]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [10]. 3.5 Styrene (EB) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The Asian styrene price has rebounded, and the domestic device load is gradually recovering [11]. - **Demand**: The EPS start - up rate has rebounded, the PS start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the start - up rates of acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has decreased [11]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all have an impact on the styrene market [11]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [11]. 3.6 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic LPG production and arrival volume have different changes, and some refineries have production adjustments, which may lead to an increase in domestic supply [12]. - **Demand**: The combustion demand is in a seasonal off - peak, the profit of olefin deep - processing is weak, and the propane chemical demand has increased but the downstream demand is in a seasonal off - peak [12]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory pressure has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, position, downstream profit, valuation, and geopolitical and macro - factors all affect the LPG market [12]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term view is bearish in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the weakening of the inter - month spread and the narrowing of the PDH profit in the off - peak season for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and downstream demand changes [12]. 3.7 Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene production has decreased slightly, and the production of butadiene rubber may continue to decrease due to losses and device maintenance [13]. - **Demand**: The demand for both all - steel and semi - steel tires is weak [13]. - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory has decreased, while the butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventory has increased [13]. - **Other Factors**: The basis, spread, profit, and macro - geopolitical factors all affect the BR market [13]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The short - term BR price is relatively stable, but it is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU strategy for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [13]. 3.8 Caustic Soda (SH) There is no detailed information provided for caustic soda in the given content. 3.9 PVC (V) There is no detailed analysis information provided for PVC in the given content. 3.10 Asphalt (BU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Supply**: The domestic asphalt production plan in May shows different trends in different regions, and the import situation is also affected by various factors such as price and demand [16]. - **Demand**: The demand in the north is gradually released, while the demand in the south is limited due to the rainy season and capital issues [16]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is accumulating, while the social inventory in most regions is decreasing [16]. - **Cost and Profit**: The crude oil market is affected by multiple factors, and the asphalt processing profit is relatively stable [16]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the cracking spread for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and Trump's policies [16]. 3.11 Container Shipping Index for European Routes (EC) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Spot Freight Rate**: The May spot freight rate has declined slightly, and shipping companies are trying to increase the June freight rate [18]. - **Politics**: Events such as the US - Israel - Hamas negotiation, the Antwerp port strike, and the resurgence of the Red Sea crisis affect the market [18]. - **Capacity Supply**: The long - term capacity delivery is at a historical high, and the short - term capacity supply is gradually increasing [18]. - **Demand**: The cargo volume on the US route has increased, and the cargo volume on the European route is in a seasonal recovery stage [18]. - **Investment and Trading Views**: It is recommended for short - term observation. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [18].

Report Summary Core Views - PTA market: The maintenance of PX units has ended, and the supply of PX has increased. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the long - position spread has declined. There is selling pressure in the spot market, and polyester factories may reduce production slightly [2]. - Ethylene glycol market: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China remains at over 700,000 tons. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol units has increased, but the coal price has risen, and the mainstream units are about to be overhauled, leading to future inventory reduction [2]. - Polyester filament: Three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to reduce production of loss - making products immediately and plan further production cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [3]. Market Data Summary 1. Price and Spread - INE crude oil price dropped from 453.7 yuan/barrel on May 22, 2025, to 452.8 yuan/barrel on May 23, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1404.9 yuan/ton to 1425.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.54 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.4261 to 1.4332, an increase of 0.0071 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 823 to 826, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 266, an increase of 19 [2]. - PTA futures price rose from 4702 yuan/ton to 4716 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4860 to 4875, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 382.5 yuan/ton to 395.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.7 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 234.5 yuan/ton to 231.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG futures price dropped from 4411 yuan/ton to 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 4501 to 4525, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha spread increased from (79.34) yuan/ton to (78.53) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Basis - PTA basis increased from 126 to 151, an increase of 25; MEG basis increased from 88 to 100, an increase of 12 [2]. 3. Inventory - PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 57,158 to 56,566, a decrease of 592 [2]. 4. Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 77.29%; PTA operating rate remained at 78.25%; MEG operating rate remained at 50.00%; polyester load remained at 91.11% [2]. 5. Product Cash Flows and Sales Ratios - In polyester filament, POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio remained at 33% [2]. - In polyester staple fiber, the cash flow decreased from 97 to 76 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio increased from 48% to 60%, an increase of 12% [2]. - In polyester chips, the cash flow decreased from (98) to (129) yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio increased from 23% to 39%, an increase of 16% [2].

数据来源：隆众资讯、Bloomberg、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.25 | 64.78 | 0.47 | 0.73% | | | WIT | 62.00 | 61.53 | 0.47 | 0.76% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 456.80 | 4 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：供应偏紧，月差维持强势格局 单边短期趋势仍偏强。月差仍偏强。多PX空PTA持有。关注PX-MX价差回归。本周辽阳石化75万吨 PX装置停车检修10天，东营威联200万吨、中金石化、浙石化提负荷，整体国内PX负荷提升至78% （+3.9%），下周PX装置负荷将继续小幅回升。需求方面，虹港石化新装置即将投产。PX供需格局 偏紧，继续维持多PX空石脑油/PTA操作。 维持上周观点，单边趋势仍偏强，PTA加工费压缩头寸继续持有。月差中期仍然是逢低做多的思路。 供需双增，但仍是去库格局。PTA装置负荷提升至77.7%（+0.8%）。长丝工厂降负荷，整体聚酯负 荷降至94%，按照计划，如果长丝整体降负15%，未来聚酯工厂负荷下调至90%。但PTA6-7月份福 海创等装置检修仍存，仍然是去库格局。PTA月差仍将偏强 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX device maintenance ended and device loads rose. PTA basis weakened, and there was selling pressure in the spot market. The long - spread trade has weakened, and PTA month - spread declined. Polyester factories' inventory improved, and there may be a slight reduction in polyester production [2]. - MEG market: East China's ethylene glycol port inventory remained at over 700,000 tons. Although coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase pressured the market, coal prices rose, squeezing the profit of coal - based devices. With mainstream device maintenance, ethylene glycol will enter a destocking phase [2]. - Polyester industry: Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts due to the recent rapid rise in raw material prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, 2025, to 453.7 yuan/barrel on May 22, 2025, a decrease of 16.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 836 to 823, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed from 266 to 246 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 fell from 4788 yuan/ton to 4702 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4895 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4411 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (92.07) to (89.26) [2]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices of POY, FDY, 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber, semi - bright chips, etc., generally declined, and the production and sales rates of polyester products decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 75.25% to 77.29%, a rise of 2.04% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate increased from 72.34% to 78.25%, a rise of 5.91% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate decreased from 52.26% to 50.00%, a decline of 2.26% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained unchanged at 91.11% [2]. Device Maintenance and Production Cuts - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]