1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with coal prices strong and enterprise profits falling, supply pressure persists. Demand is weak, so prices may decline further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are decreasing. Urea prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. Short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [9]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven decline may shift to the impact of South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [17]. - For polypropylene, in a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November. Although polyester load may remain high, PTA processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. - For ethylene glycol, inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. With a weak pattern, the valuation may be further compressed, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.48% increase, to 464.50 yuan/barrel. Fujeirah port's gasoline inventory decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see in the short term [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang's price decreased by 5, Lunan remained stable, Inner Mongolia increased by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan to 2013 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 14, reported at - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It's recommended to wait and see as prices may decline [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's by 20, Hubei's by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 1 yuan to 1663 yuan, and the basis was - 53. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to news. With high supply and weak demand, new export policies have improved the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. Shanghai Exchange's November natural rubber warehouse receipts are about to be delivered. The long - short views are divided. Tire factory operating rates are neutral, and inventories are mixed [8]. - **Strategy**: Bullish view, short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 4492 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4450 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 42 (- 2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 306 (+ 13) yuan/ton. Costs decreased, production and demand decreased, and inventories decreased [9]. - **Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. Supply increased, demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to recover, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production decreased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand was weak [16]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to cost and supply - demand factors [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production increased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the cost - side situation changes in Q1 next year [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 102 yuan to 6870 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 5 dollars to 832 dollars. Loads decreased in China and Asia, and some plants had maintenance or production cuts. Imports increased, and inventories increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from the supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 42 yuan to 4712 yuan, and the spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4640 yuan. Loads decreased, some plants had maintenance or production increases, downstream loads decreased, and inventories increased [23]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3903 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 33 yuan to 3919 yuan. Supply loads were mixed, downstream loads decreased, imports were expected, and port inventories increased [26]. - **Strategy**: Inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4, and the valuation may be further compressed. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of range - bound, some are expected to be weak, and some show signs of super - decline and rebound. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with some suggesting temporary waiting and some suggesting attention to arbitrage opportunities [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is concentrated on the market, and demand is average, putting pressure on prices. However, the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13th, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions, and the spinning mills' new orders are few. The US Department of Agriculture's November report is bearish, with the US cotton production significantly increased. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and due to good weather, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. In October, China's sugar imports increased, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot market has sporadic transactions of apples in the warehouse, with prices slightly rising. As of November 14th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.3577 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose today. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China has entered a production - reduction period. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the spot inventory is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures continued to fall today. As of November 13th, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation is strong, but the downstream procurement intention is general. After the basis converges, the price has corrected. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price remains stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation continued to rise, but the domestic spot price is weak, and the trader's import willingness is low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is low. Low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: November 19, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,700 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,440 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,480 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,127 lots, up 2,096 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 61,464 lots, up 61 lots [2] - **Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,656 lots, up 1,097 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,368 lots, up 450 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 116,060 tons, up 160 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,594 tons, down 101 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 490 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the basis of the main non - standard product of Shanghai rubber contract was - 695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Rubber Prices**: The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 149.6 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars [2] - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - **Tire Inventories**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, up 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.36 days, up 0.31 days [2] - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.92%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.34%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.57%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - **Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13% [2] - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, with Yuanxiang New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.09, unchanged [1] Stock Performance - Yuanxiang New Materials (301300) closed at 48.37, up 11.48% with a trading volume of 76,400 shares and a turnover of 353 million yuan [1] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) closed at 40.92, up 6.62% with a trading volume of 361,500 shares and a turnover of 147.5 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Zhongyu Technology (920694) with a 0.55% increase and Sanwei Co. (603033) with a 0.35% increase [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 160 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 92.73 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Tongcheng New Materials had a net inflow of 250 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 139 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Yuanxiang New Materials had a net inflow of 642,470 yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 835,650 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall upward drive of the crude oil market is supported by geopolitical factors, but the medium - term suppression of supply - demand imbalance still exists, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively healthy downstream bunker demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near future [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be bearish due to the dual decline of supply and demand, with the decline in supply being less than that in demand [2]. - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the improvement of fundamentals, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment [2][3]. - The rubber market is expected to fluctuate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, with winter storage demand supporting the raw material price [3]. - The methanol market is expected to maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, and the port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year [3]. - The polyolefin market is expected to have a bottom - weak fluctuation as it gradually shifts to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream price - fixing or inventory - building actions [5]. - The PVC market is expected to show a weak - range fluctuation due to high supply - demand pressure and weak fundamental drivers, despite the narrowing of the hedging space [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices moved up. WTI December contract closed up $0.83 to $60.74 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; Brent January contract closed up $0.69 to $64.89 per barrel, a 1.07% increase. SC2512 closed at 466 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.17% increase. The new main contract SC2601 closed at 465.7 yuan per barrel, up 3.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.74% increase. API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels. China's gasoline and diesel production in October 2025 had different year - on - year changes, and an Iranian coast guard intercepted a tanker [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, closed down 1.62% at 2558 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2601 closed up 0.31% at 3247 yuan per ton. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, closed down 0.36% at 3032 yuan per ton. Refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price forward contracts, and the spot price is under great pressure [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4670 yuan per ton, down 0.47%; EG2601 closed at 3907 yuan per ton, down 0.79%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to PTA and its downstream exports [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, fell 20 yuan per ton to 15295 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 12345 yuan per ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year, while overseas tire demand is slightly decreasing [3]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2002 yuan per ton. Domestic maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop from late November to December, which may lead to a significant decline in arrivals in January [3]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 6380 - 6580 yuan per ton. Polyolefins are gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream actions [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the price of PVC in East, North, and South China markets decreased. The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, and the demand is expected to decline as real - estate construction slows down [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and other data of various energy - chemical products on November 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [6] 3.3 Market News - API data shows that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels, and gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [9]. - China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in October 2025, China's gasoline production was 13.457 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year increase, and diesel production was 17.683 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [10][11][12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the role of Guoxin Futures in supporting rural revitalization through innovative financial tools, particularly the "insurance + futures" model, which provides risk management and stability for agricultural producers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tool Innovation - Guoxin Futures addresses the challenges of agricultural production by continuously innovating financial tools to create a risk "safety net" for specialty industries [2]. - In Anhui's Huo Qiu County, a chicken egg options project was launched, providing price protection for over 400 tons of eggs, successfully mitigating market volatility risks and stabilizing farmer incomes [2]. - The peanut industry in Xiangfu District received systematic financial support through the "insurance + futures" project, covering nearly 100,000 acres and establishing a dual risk defense system [2]. - As of mid-2025, Guoxin Futures has conducted over 150 "insurance + futures" projects, benefiting more than 80,000 farming households across various crops [2]. Group 2: Industry Deepening and Support - Guoxin Futures enhances rural industry vitality through comprehensive service across the entire industry chain, exemplified by its collaboration with Guangtan Rubber [3]. - The company continues to promote the "leading enterprise + off-market options" model to improve the quality and efficiency of the rubber industry [3]. - In the consumer support area, Guoxin Futures has maintained its "purchase instead of support" tradition, expanding sales channels for local agricultural products [3]. Group 3: Financial Knowledge Empowerment - Guoxin Futures has launched the "Blue Ocean Launch" financial knowledge classroom, educating farmers on price insurance and futures to stabilize their incomes [4]. - The training sessions have reached over a thousand participants through a combination of online and on-site teaching methods [4]. - The "project + training + signing" model has become a hallmark of Guoxin Futures' financial empowerment efforts, facilitating knowledge transfer and practical benefits for farmers [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, while the rating for BR is also neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of rubber is strongly supported as domestic and foreign natural rubber raw material prices remain at a year-on-year high. With the gradual increase in recent arrivals in China and no obvious highlights in demand, there is expected to be some inventory accumulation space in the later period. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which will be conducive to the further expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to maintenance support, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. The upstream butadiene is still in a weak situation, and the inventory accumulation pattern may continue [11] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,345 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,505 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.8664 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2] - The ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a decrease of 1% from the previous month; the consumption of natural rubber was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 7, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2025 totaled 667,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared with 659,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - From January to September 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, ending the previous two consecutive months of "double growth" trend. However, from the cumulative performance of the whole year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to October were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, still maintaining a relatively stable growth rhythm [3] - According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of the EU passenger car market in September 2025 increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the RU basis was -445 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 695 yuan/ton (+30), and the NR basis was 763.00 yuan/ton (+17.00); the full latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-50), and the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between the full latex and the 3L was -350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 3,800 yuan/ton (-150) [4][5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg (+0.22), the price of Thai glue was 56.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 64.29% (-1.08%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.99% (+0.10%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (-10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the BR basis was -155 yuan/ton (-50), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,556 yuan/ton (+433) [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+3.91%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+80) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Due to the strong cost support and the expected increase in supply later, the supply-demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and 05. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance. The supply is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials [11]

供应增长乏力，需求"东升西稳" 2025年以来，全球天然橡胶市场受宏观不确定性、地缘风险、供给约束与气候变化等因素影响，价格走势跌宕起伏，泰 国天然橡胶（STR20）价格在1650～2160美元/吨区间运行。目前，市场正处于关键转折点，亟待形成新的交易逻辑，探 索可持续的动态平衡路径。 [宏观：周期、政策与汇率的联动] 天然橡胶的定价逻辑，根植于其独特的跨界属性：上游关联农业，受制于气候与地理，呈现鲜明的供给周期；下游绑定 工业，需求与宏观经济及制造业景气度高度同步。这一"农工一体"的产业链特征，使天然橡胶价格波动天然兼具农产品 的"供给弹性"与工业品的"需求弹性"，成为观测经济周期的重要微观指标。 当前，宏观层面正经历深刻的结构性转向。主要经济体货币政策分化、全球贸易格局重构及地缘风险常态化等因素，构 成了影响天然橡胶定价的新宏观范式。另外，能源转型与供应链区域化趋势叠加，使宏观因子的波动正以前所未有的强 度与复杂度向天然橡胶价格传导。因此，天然橡胶价格波动已越来越清晰地呈现出宏观驱动的特征。 全球经济弱复苏 天然橡胶需求与全球制造业景气度高度相关。IMF虽将2025年全球经济增长预期上调至3.2%，但欧元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 0.80 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year new construction area of national real estate is -19.80% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at -0.94% and cement price index at -0.76%, while rubber increased by 3.14% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.99 percentage points, while cement and asphalt decreased by 11.30 percentage points and increased by 1.0 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing is -16.90% [6] - The weekly operating rate for flat glass is 75%, with glass and titanium dioxide prices remaining unchanged [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Weekly price changes for major bulk commodities include cold-rolled steel at -1.00%, copper at +1.11%, and aluminum at +1.44% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The spot price of oriented silicon steel has decreased by 23% year-to-date [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 25.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a calculated profit of 4,622 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,094.03 points, with a month-on-month increase of 3.39% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +2.70% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 44.37% and 91.89%, respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.56, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]