豆粕、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 周一农产品板块大部分品种下跌，豆粕大幅走低，受到美豆下挫 的带动，国内进口大豆充足，豆粕库存在百万吨高位，多头回吐令期 价高位下跌，后市续调整空间。生猪下挫，供应端生猪存栏高位，需 求端腌腊季需求推迟，供大于需格局压制猪价走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：大幅下跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，受美豆下跌的带动： 1. 美国农业部公布的 11 月大豆供需报告将 2025/26 年度美国大 豆单产和产量预估值分别从上个月的53.5蒲式耳/英亩和43.01亿蒲 式耳下调至 53 蒲式耳/英亩和 42.53 亿蒲式耳，数据调整不及市场预 期，引发抛售，美豆下挫带动连粕走低。国内进口大豆到港充足，油 厂豆粕库存在百万吨的高水平，下游饲料企业采购一般，豆粕价格承 压下跌。 2.豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌破 10 日均线，呈现高位 回调态势，策略上多单平仓，关注中期均线支撑。 （二）生猪：跳空下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2601 合约跳空下行，走势偏弱： 1. 供应端能繁母猪存栏量仍高出正常保有量叠加生产效率提升， 产能过剩局面未变。11 月规模猪企计划出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the US soybean monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped and then stabilized. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices also declined, with the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widening and the monthly spread of both showing a downward trend. The international soybean market is generally in a state of relatively loose supply, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure. The market's focus on soybean meal may be on the repair of crushing profit, and in the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and the supply side still faces pressure [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the release of the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped but then stabilized due to optimistic expectations for subsequent exports. The price of Brazilian soybeans rebounded slightly. The domestic soybean meal price declined due to the downward pressure from the cost side and the full reflection of previous good news. Rapeseed meal also declined, affected by the fall of soybean meal and its own loose supply - demand situation. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widened, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The monthly supply - demand report for US soybeans is generally positive, but the price increase space is limited. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future trends will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply has an increasing impact, with Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent crushing and export have increased. The overall international soybean market supply is relatively loose [4] - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and increased提货量. The inventory remains high. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the supply of rapeseed is low, and the supply pressure still exists [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation has recently stabilized. The end of the US government shutdown and the Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, causing the US soybean futures price to rise. The resumption of the soybean export qualifications of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - economic factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean monthly supply - demand report is positive, but the fundamental support is limited. Without significant improvement in exports, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and will generally fluctuate. The focus of the soybean meal market may be on the repair of crushing profit. In the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Soybean meal outperforms rapeseed meal, and the monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to decline [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to wait and see in the short term - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production may pressure prices, but the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise, but there is a risk of resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA report led to a decline in CBOT soybeans, and domestic soybean oil inventories are high with weak demand. Dalian soybean oil may correct in the short term [1]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, leading to a rebound in the futures market, but the supply pressure limits the upside. Attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: The Indian sugar export policy and the end of the Brazilian harvest result in a relatively calm fundamental situation. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain volatile next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet is bearish for cotton prices. Domestically, new cotton supply is short - term concentrated, and downstream demand is weak, but local product demand provides some support. Cotton prices may be under pressure in the short term [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet lacks significant information. There is no substantial bullish factor for US soybeans, and domestic soybean inventories are high. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is abundant, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. - **Pigs**: The spot pig price is weak, but there is support at low levels. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.35%), the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the basis was 334 yuan/ton (+36.89%) [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.23%), the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton (-1.23%), and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton (+70.33%). The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton (-8.89%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton (+0.29%), the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and the basis was 367 yuan/ton (+28.77%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, the basis was 25 yuan/ton (+78.57%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton (+5.63%). The import profit was 301 yuan/ton (+5.00%) [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price was 2505 yuan/ton (-0.08%), the basis was 5 yuan/ton (+66.67%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton (0.00%) [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton (-16.46%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 14.85 cents/pound (+2.91%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton (0.00%), and the Nanning basis was 256 yuan/ton (+12.78%) [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased by 9.17% year - on - year [7]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton (+300.00%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 64.14 cents/pound (-0.68%) [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14594 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and the 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1124 yuan/ton (+0.45%) [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% month - on - month, and the textile and clothing retail sales increased by 19.5% month - on - month [9]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton (+0.33%), the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton (+0.68%), and the basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-52.38%). The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule import profit was - 7 yuan/ton (-800.0%) [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton (0.00%), the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton (-0.08%), and the basis was 10 yuan/ton (+25.00%) [11]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG (-0.23%), and the 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG (+10.22%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area was 2.98 yuan/jin (-0.34%), and the basis was - 51 yuan/500KG (-6.54%) [15]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract was 11775 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the main contract basis was 582 yuan/ton (+103.57%) [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton (+0.50%), and the sample point daily slaughter volume was 162927 (-0.74%) [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report was less bullish than expected, leading to an expected correction in the futures market. The poor profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing indicates that the domestic futures market is expected to follow the trend of the US market. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement news from the US and the trend of new - crop basis [5]. - The overall investment view is that the market will be in a state of oscillation. The trading strategy suggests a unilateral oscillation approach and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage. Key factors to monitor include policies and weather [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and decreased ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels, showing less - than - expected bullishness [5]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% the previous week and 66.1% the same period last year, with a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather expected in southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [5]. - From November to December, domestic soybean meal inventories are expected to decline, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [5]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the expected supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China will shrink. Policy changes should be monitored [5]. - The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. Demand - For livestock and poultry, short - term high inventory levels are expected to be maintained, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect future supply [5]. - Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio [5]. - Recently, downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, while提货 performance has been good. Downstream transactions and提货 of rapeseed meal have been cautious [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December [5]. - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [5]. - Domestic rapeseed inventories have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories have been continuously decreasing [5]. Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [5]. Profit - The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor [5]. - The profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a moderately high valuation [5]. Macro and Policy - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US. The 24% additional tariff rate on US imports will continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained. Currently, the tariff rate for China's soybean imports from the US is 13% [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - In November, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 period decreased [34]. - The November report showed a decline in the rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level [85]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [55]. - This week, no US soybean export sales data were released [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price has rebounded, but the fundamentals at home and abroad remain unchanged. The supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised downward, which slightly boosts sentiment. However, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the weekly export volume in November decreased year - on - year. In China, new sugar is on the market, and the main contract is under pressure at 5500. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies and hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has followed, but the increase is weaker. The short - term rise is mainly due to the increase in warehouse receipt costs. The demand improvement of downstream wood - pulp paper is limited. Although the global pulp shipment volume increased in September, the shipment volume of softwood pulp to China decreased year - on - year, and China's pulp imports decreased in October. The market is advised to wait and see as the upside space is limited [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price remains stable, and the peak season has limited impact on the market. The cost is supported by the rising pulp futures price, but the upside is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and it is recommended to short near the resistance level [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market is weak. The USDA November report is bearish for US cotton, and the domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly. The demand improvement is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8][9]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apples**: The production and high - quality fruit rate have decreased year - on - year, which provides core support. The apple warehousing in the producing areas is progressing steadily. The 01 contract is expected to remain strong at a high level, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2605 contract cautiously [10]. - **Jujubes**: In November, the jujube futures price dropped significantly and then fluctuated at a low level. The supply has become more abundant, and the expectation of production reduction has failed. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold a reverse spread strategy or long positions in the 2605 contract with protective put options [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously as the inventory continues to decline year - on - year. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the cooling of the production reduction expectation [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rallies as the external market is under pressure and new sugar is on the market. For Pulp 2601, wait and see as the upside space is limited. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rallies as the demand improvement is limited. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously as the new cotton production is expected to increase and the consumption confidence is insufficient [20]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9040 | - 198 | - 2.14 | | Jujube 2601 | 9590 | - 555 | - 5.47 | | Sugar 2601 | 5457 | - 26 | - 0.47 | | Pulp 2511 | 4872 | 34 | 0.70 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4278 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13580 | - 15 | - 0.11 | [21] b. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4 | 0.00 | 0.7 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5500 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14806 | - 13 | - 590 | [24] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of Apple 1 - month contract, Jujube main - continuous contract, etc. [32][33][34] Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spread between Apple 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, etc. [42][44][46] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8622 | 901 | - 4507 | | Pulp | 220368 | - 1493 | - 157345 | | Cotton | 4401 | 221 | 1980 | [48] Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The inventory continues to decline year - on - year, and the price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is concentrated on the market | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamentals are bearish | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The supply is temporarily abundant, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the upward driving force of the fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with a strike price of 4900 and call options with a strike price of 5300 | [50] b. Option Data for Each Variety There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the trading volume, open interest, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [52][53][56] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apples - **Producing Area Weather**: There are references to figures of the minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [60][61][62]. - **Export Situation**: There is a reference to the figure of the monthly apple export volume [63][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are references to figures of the weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [66][68]. b. Jujubes There are references to figures of the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [70]. c. Sugar There are references to figures of the national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures spread of sugar [71][72][75]. d. Pulp There are references to figures of the pulp inventory in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood - pulp inventory days, and the weekly production of various types of paper [76][77][79]. e. Offset Paper There are references to figures of the capacity utilization rate, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper [88][89][91]. f. Cotton There are references to figures of the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as the industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and production of cotton - related products in China [93][94][97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range due to cost support and pressured crushing margins [5]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [5][9]. - Sugar prices are expected to decline after a rebound, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [16]. - Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. - Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The USDA monthly report lowered the new - crop soybean production in the US and globally. US soybean exports were also lowered. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable last week, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL statistics showed average domestic soybean meal sales last week, good pick - up, and a slight decrease in feed enterprise inventory days. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to increase this week [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas is expected to be normal, and sowing is expected to proceed normally. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: Import costs may have found a bottom, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season is approaching, providing some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Vegetable Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed a 9.5% - 12.28% decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed a 6.8% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November and a 2.16% decrease from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. A consultant expects Malaysian palm oil futures prices to rebound to 4,300 - 4,400 ringgit per metric ton in Q1 next year. Domestic vegetable oils traded in a range last Friday, supported by the rebound in crude oil and the expected seasonal de - stocking [7]. - **Strategy**: High production in Malaysia and Indonesia has pressured palm oil prices, but improving exports provide some support. Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell on Friday. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year - on - year. India has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the new season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Stricter controls on syrup and premix imports have boosted Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade in a range on Friday. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and downstream demand is weak. Spinning mill operating rates are lower than in previous years, and commercial inventories are higher [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Domestic egg prices were stable over the weekend. The laying hen inventory is high, but there is no pressure to sell eggs after the temperature drop, and downstream demand is gradually recovering [18]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mostly fell over the weekend, with some areas stable. Supply in the northern market increased, and downstream demand was limited. Southern leading enterprises tried to support prices, and the market was in a stalemate [22]. - **Strategy**: Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 4. Key Charts - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Charts include major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, port soybean inventory, feed enterprise inventory days, etc. [25][32] - **Vegetable Oils**: Charts include domestic three - major vegetable oil inventories, Malaysian palm oil inventory, etc. [47] - **Sugar**: Charts include national monthly sugar sales volume, cumulative sugar production, etc. [51] - **Cotton**: Charts include global and US cotton production and inventory - to - consumption ratio, Chinese cotton production, etc. [62][63] - **Eggs**: Charts include laying hen inventory, egg chick replenishment volume, etc. [73] - **Hogs**: Charts include hog slaughter weight, daily slaughter volume, etc. [85]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 核心逻辑：美国农业部发布的 11 月份供需报告显示，美国大豆产量、出口以及期末库存均较 9 月份 下调。尽管中美达成贸易协议有助于推动美国对华出口增长，但是自协议签订以来美国大豆价格强劲 上涨，美豆相对南美大豆价格没有优势，导致美国出口降低。在美农报告预期兑现后，美豆期价缺乏 进一步驱动，对国内豆类期价支撑减弱。国内油厂受制于库存压力，短期豆粕市场受成本推动与政策 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **US Drought Situation**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - **South American Precipitation**: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - **US Soybean Export**: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - **Soybean Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].