Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) experienced an overall increase in prices on October 2, 2023 [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 0.91%, closing at 1022.25 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 1.14%, closing at 421.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a rise of 0.98%, closing at 514.25 cents per bushel [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Chicago futures market saw a broad increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on October 1, with December corn closing at $4.17 per bushel, up 1 cent (0.24%) from the previous day [1] - December wheat contract closed at $5.09 per bushel, rising 1.25 cents (0.25%), while November soybean contract reached $10.13 per bushel, increasing by 11.25 cents (1.12%) [1] - The rebound in agricultural futures prices follows several days of decline, indicating a more pessimistic fundamental outlook than market reactions suggest [1] Group 2: Production and Yield Forecasts - As harvesting progresses in the northern and western regions of the U.S., corn and soybean yields are expected to improve [1] - Market analysts predict key support levels for December corn futures between $3.95 and $4.03, for November soybean futures between $10.40 and $10.60, and for December wheat futures at $4.90 [1] Group 3: Ukraine Wheat Production - Ukraine has raised its 2026 winter wheat sowing area estimate by 9% to at least 12.8 million acres, which is expected to increase winter wheat production to 25 million tons and export supply by 2 million tons [2] Group 4: U.S. Ethanol Production - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in ethanol production to 29.3 million gallons last week, down by 8 million gallons from the previous week, with ethanol inventory dropping by 30 million gallons to 986 million gallons [2] - U.S. daily crude oil consumption remained stable at 8.52 million gallons compared to the previous year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts decline, with notable drops in sugar, cotton, and cocoa futures, while coffee futures experienced an increase [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Sugar futures fell by 2.71%, closing at 16.15 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.24%, ending at 65.61 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures dropped by 0.87%, settling at $6,690 per ton [1] - Coffee futures rose by 2.57%, closing at 384.50 cents per pound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a decline on September 30, with significant drops in prices due to increased supply as reported by the USDA [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - The most active December corn contract closed at $4.16 per bushel, down 6 cents or 1.42% from the previous trading day [1]. - The December wheat contract settled at $5.08 per bushel, decreasing by 11.5 cents or 2.21% [1]. - The November soybean contract ended at $10.02 per bushel, falling by 8.75 cents or 0.87% [1]. Group 2: USDA Inventory Report - The USDA's report indicated an increase in corn and wheat supplies, negatively impacting agricultural futures prices [1]. - The projected ending inventory for U.S. corn for the 2024-2025 season is 1.532 billion bushels, which is 207 million bushels higher than the September forecast [1]. - The expected U.S. wheat inventory is 2.120 billion bushels, up by 130 million bushels from previous estimates, with a projected production of 1.985 billion bushels for 2025, an increase of 58 million bushels [1]. - The ending inventory for U.S. soybeans for the 2024-2025 season has been revised down to 316 million bushels, a decrease of 14 million bushels from earlier predictions, while the soybean production forecast for 2024 has been raised by 8 million bushels to 4.374 billion bushels [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market analysts suggest that if the December corn contract closes below $4.14, it could open up further downside potential to the range of $3.90 to $4.05 [2]. - The next support level for the November soybean contract is identified at $9.70 to $9.85, while the wheat futures prices have reached new lows, indicating a continued bearish market sentiment [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in major agricultural futures contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on September 30, with all key commodities experiencing price drops [1][2] Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 0.96%, closing at 1000.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures decreased by 1.30%, ending at 416.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a decline of 2.31%, closing at 507.50 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the current new - season US soybeans are being harvested with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, leading to an expected reduction in overall output. However, due to the unclear outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and China's reduced imports of US soybeans, the export progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition between North and South America, further impacting US soybean exports. As a result, both CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure [2] - For the corn sector, in the domestic market, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2933 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton or - 0.14% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2416 yuan/ton, a change of + 11 yuan/ton or + 0.46% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 37, a change of + 4; in Jiangsu, it was 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 53, a change of + 4; in Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 33, a change of + 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 164, a change of - 11 [1] - **Market Information**: As of Friday, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season reached 5.97%, much faster than the same period last year. For the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales net increased by 72.45 tons, with a market forecast of a net increase of 60 - 160 tons [1] 3.2. Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The new - season US soybean harvest is underway, with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, resulting in an expected reduction in overall output. Uncertain Sino - US trade policies and China's reduced imports slow down US soybean exports, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition and impact US soybean exports. CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to China's imports from Argentina and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3.3. Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2159 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton or - 0.87% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.12% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 141, a change of + 19; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS11 + 87, a change of - 3 [3] - **Market Information**: The EU Commission's monthly report shows that the EU's corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season is lowered by 80 tons to 5680 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, far lower than the initial forecast of 6500 tons. Due to the continuous drought in Southeast Europe in the summer of 2025, the corn yield per hectare is expected to be 6.88 tons, 1% lower than last month's forecast and 3% lower than the five - year average [3] 3.4. Market Analysis for Corn - **Supply**: New - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain [4] - **Demand**: The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the disk valuation is low. Considering the cost, there is certain support below. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips. The future driver depends on China-US policies and South American planting season weather [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 29, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 7, and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dongguan decreased by 6 to -3, and in Zhanjiang decreased by 6 to 17. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 183, a decrease of 10 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the disk price difference (main contract) was 517, a decrease of 15. The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB was 7.1300, a decrease of 14.00, and the disk crushing profit was 290 yuan/ton [7] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the producing areas, and the good rate may continue to decline. The yield per unit of US soybeans may be lowered later. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Currently, the purchase and shipping progress for November - January is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9] - In terms of demand, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, supporting the feed demand. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the supply of pigs in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high [9] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than that of last year. It is expected to still be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [9]

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, recommend light - position trading during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, recommend avoiding risks during the long holiday [2][13]. - Soybean: Oscillating [2][12]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2][15]. - Sugar: Narrow - range consolidation [2][20]. - Cotton: Both domestic and international cotton futures are weak [2][25]. - Eggs: Light - position trading during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][31]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,234 yuan/ton (-0.02%), and night - session was 9,214 yuan/ton (-0.22%); soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,150 yuan/ton (-0.15%), and night - session was 8,120 yuan/ton (-0.37%) [5]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports. MPOB urges the government to increase the 2026 appropriation for oil palm replanting to 280 million ringgit [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [10]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE Soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3938 yuan/ton (-0.05%), and night - session was 3926 yuan/ton (-0.13%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton (-0.54%), and night - session was 2931 yuan/ton (-0.20%) [12]. - **News**: On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to expected high yields in the US and insufficient Chinese demand [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean and soybean meal trend intensities are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton (-0.78%), and night - session was 2,151 yuan/ton (-0.37%); C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,135 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,128 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [15]. - **News**: Northern corn port - collection prices are 2220 - 2240 yuan/ton, and container port - collection prices for new grain are 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price is 15.92 cents/pound (0.09), mainstream spot price is 5830 yuan/ton (-10), and futures main - contract price is 5479 yuan/ton (1) [20]. - **News**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,350 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and night - session was 13245 yuan/ton (-0.79%); ICE US cotton 12 was 65.4 cents/pound (-1.40%) [25]. - **News**: The new - cotton pre - sale quotes in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase, and the cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere is average [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,918 yuan/500 kg (-1.15%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,352 yuan/500 kg (-0.24%) [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price is 12430 yuan/ton (-150), Sichuan's is 11900 yuan/ton (-200), and Guangdong's is 12710 yuan/ton (-200) [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton (+100), PK510's closing price is 7,800 yuan/ton (0.21%), and PK511's is 7,822 yuan/ton (0.49%) [36]. - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions are generally stable, affected by weather and supply [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited Chinese demand, expected to fluctuate in a low - range. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, with high soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories. The basis is difficult to improve under supply pressure. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases eases the year - end and Q1 2026 gap, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for large - weight pig slaughter has increased, resulting in both supply and demand growth. Spot quotes are chaotic, and price drops have widened in some areas. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but supply has clearly recovered, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the adjustment of retail farmers' pig weights after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - term bullish funds have withdrawn. The market is expected to fluctuate sideways and follow the spot market with small fluctuations [4]. Edible Oils - For palm oil, due to the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about year - end inventory growth, crude palm oil futures may fall below 4400 ringgit and continue to decline. There is a possibility of seeking support at 4200 ringgit after breaking through the annual support at 4350 ringgit. In the domestic market, there is a risk of domestic palm oil futures following the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially a potential catch - up decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports may lead to a decline in CBOT soybeans, which will drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the market is quiet. Factory soybean oil production may accumulate during the holiday, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may ease inventory pressure, soybean oil inventory remains high, which may drag down the spot basis [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers being more willing to sell. Prices may rebound slightly in the short term but are expected to decline as the harvest progresses. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid needs and have seasonal replenishment needs. In the short term, the market supply is increasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling attitudes [7]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by rapid Brazilian production and demand before the October contract expiration. There is an oversupply in the trade flow due to high sugar production and inventory during the Brazilian crushing peak. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decrease in cane crushing volume, the reduction in sugar - making ratio, and the gradual end of the crushing season from September to October. Overall, there are limited positive factors for raw sugar, and it is expected to remain in a weak bottom - sideways pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. Domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking, the overall trading atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain weak [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, so there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, providing limited support. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, traders' risk - aversion has increased, and their purchases in the origin have decreased. Weakening demand may drag down egg prices. Abundant egg supply will also have a negative impact on the egg market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. Egg prices are expected to remain sideways at the bottom in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; M2601 futures price is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14%. Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40%; RM2601 futures price is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46%. Harbin soybean spot price is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean No. 1 main - contract futures price is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33%. The basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15%. The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% [2]. Pork - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis is 255, up 280 or 1120%. The price of Live Hogs 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or 2.23%. The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or 2.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Sichuan is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88%. The weekly white - strip price is 0, down 19.8 or 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 or 203.23% [4]. Edible Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.83%; Y2601 futures price is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.15%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 1.30%; P2601 futures price is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.02% [6]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 18.83%. The basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or 1966.67%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.87%. The basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63%. The 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 62.96% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12%. The basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 3.75%. The 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.09%. The 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning sugar is - 1326 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 2.14% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 1000 million tons, up 114 million tons or 12.87% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15%. The price of Cotton 2601 is 13555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 175% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.31%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% is 1726 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 7.5% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 117.59 million tons, down 30.58 million tons or 20.6%. Industrial inventory is 86.21 million tons, down 3.02 million tons or 3.4% [12]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3016 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan or 0.66%. The price of Egg 10 contract is 2918 yuan/500KG, down 22 yuan or 0.75%. The egg - producing area price is 3.44 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan or 2.76% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.85, up 0.21 or 7.95%. The breeding profit is 3.20 yuan/feather, up 12.31 yuan or 135.13% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on September 29, indicating a downward trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.44%, closing at 1009.25 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.12%, ending at 421.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures dropped by 0.19%, closing at 518.75 cents per bushel [1]