Group 1 - The core market trend shows that U.S. stock indices opened lower, while Chinese concept stocks experienced a rise, with the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up over 1% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.84% [1] Group 2 - New energy vehicle stocks led the gains, with NIO rising over 6%, Li Auto increasing by over 4%, and Zeekr up more than 3% [2] - Precious metals showed weak performance, with international spot gold and silver declining by 0.22% and 1.69% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell by over 2.5% [2] - International crude oil futures experienced a significant drop, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures both falling over 2% at one point, although the decline narrowed by the time of reporting. OPEC+ is set to discuss a potential increase in production by 500,000 barrels per day over the next three months [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].

Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between Trump and congressional leaders on September 29 raises concerns about a potential government shutdown, with over 60% probability if no agreement is reached by September 30, which could lead to a data vacuum and increased investment in gold as a safe haven [2] - The PCE price index released on the previous Friday met market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, which is a key driver for the continuous rise in gold prices [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihao believes that the rate cut cycle supports the ongoing increase in gold prices, alongside heightened risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown, leading to new historical highs for gold [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although current production is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below targets, indicating a risk of oversupply in the market [2] - The IEA warns of a potential oversupply in global oil markets before 2026, with OPEC+ focusing on market share rather than price management due to ongoing production increases [3] - The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq after a two-year pause may further ease supply constraints, contributing to a more pronounced short-term volatility in the oil market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal funds are set to run out on October 1, raising the risk of a government shutdown [5] - The European Central Bank may need to adjust its policy stance due to weak economic growth, as indicated by comments from ECB President Lagarde [3] - Upcoming key economic data includes the Chicago PMI and JOLTs job openings, which could influence market sentiment [10]

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [2] - Report date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Covered option types: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyesters (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [3] - Overall strategy: Construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and use spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple underlying futures are involved, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 480, down 14 (-2.87%); LPG (PG2511) is 4,313, up 18 (0.42%) [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - Volume and position PCR are calculated for various options. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.59 (-0.07), and the position PCR is 1.07 (-0.02) [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels are provided for different options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 570, and the support point is 480 [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data is presented for each option. For example, the flat - value implied volatility of crude oil is 44.085, and the weighted implied volatility is 48.59 (4.75) [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options - **Crude oil**: - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ plans to return 1.66 million barrels per day of production capacity, but the Russia - Ukraine situation causes supply uncertainty. US EIA demand is weak, and the effect of interest - rate cuts needs observation [8] - Market analysis: Since July, it has shown a bearish trend with some rebounds. It is currently in a warming - up market with upper pressure [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, position PCR is above 1.00, indicating support below [8] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [8] - **LPG**: - Fundamental analysis: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit is declining. It is expected that capacity utilization will fall below 70% in the peak season [10] - Market analysis: It has shown an oversold - rebound market with upper pressure since July [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, position PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak trend [10] - Strategies: Similar to crude oil, construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - Fundamental analysis: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and pre - holiday downstream stocking has led to inventory reduction [10] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - rebound market with upper pressure since July [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the historical average, position PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak - oscillating trend [10] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [10] - **Ethylene glycol**: - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and turn to a stocking cycle later [11] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the average, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating strong bearish power [11] - Strategies: Directional strategy - construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - Fundamental analysis: PP inventory pressure is higher than PE. Production and trade inventories are mostly decreasing, but port inventory is increasing [12] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak trend [12] - Strategies: Spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - Fundamental analysis: Pre - holiday stocking is over, and buying sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber prices [13] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - oscillating market with upper and lower boundaries since July [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average after a sharp rise, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak trend [13] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination [13] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - Fundamental analysis: Domestic PTA weekly production and capacity utilization are decreasing, and social inventory is also decreasing [14] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating an oscillating trend [14] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination [14] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic soda**: - Fundamental analysis: The caustic soda market is stable with some fluctuations. Some enterprises have device maintenance, and downstream demand is weak [15] - Market analysis: It has shown a downward - oscillating market with upper pressure recently [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a high level, position PCR is below 0.90, indicating a weak - oscillating trend [15] - Strategies: Directional strategy - construct a bear - spread put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [15] - **Soda ash**: - Fundamental analysis: Factory inventory is decreasing, and inventory available days are also decreasing [15] - Market analysis: It has shown a low - level weak - oscillating market with support below [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure [15] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [15] Urea - related Options - **Urea**: - Fundamental analysis: Enterprise and port inventories are increasing, indicating an oversupply situation [16] - Market analysis: It has shown a low - level weak - oscillating market since July [16] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is fluctuating around the historical average, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure [16] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market was boosted by brokerage stocks, with the index fluctuating upwards. The bond market was cautious due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees. The precious metals market continued to rise strongly due to the ongoing fermentation of the US government shutdown crisis. The shipping index (European line) showed a weak and volatile trend, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts. The copper price remained high due to supply concerns. The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with a downward - pressured price. The aluminum market was supported by the peak - season effect and inventory inflection point, with the price expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The zinc market was expected to remain volatile under the background of supply and demand. The tin price rose significantly at night due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. The nickel market was expected to maintain an interval shock. The stainless steel market was mainly in a short - term shock adjustment, and the lithium carbonate market was expected to fluctuate and sort out. The steel market's inventory pressure was not large, and the iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. The coking coal and coke markets were expected to fall after the peak due to the end of pre - holiday replenishment. The粕 market had supply pressure in the near - term, and the pig market was in a situation of loose supply and demand with a weak adjustment of the spot price before the National Day [2][5][8][12][13][19][22][25][32][36][39][42][46][49][51][56][63][64][67] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - share major indexes fluctuated upwards and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting studied the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission supported enterprises to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. Overseas, South Korea and the US reached an agreement on exchange - rate issues [3][4] - **Funding**: On September 29, the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted a net investment of 481 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to shock. It was recommended to lightly short the put option of MO2511 with an exercise price near 6800 to collect the premium [4] Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed lower across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.47%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [5] - **Funding**: The inter - bank market's capital was generally stable on Monday, but there were structural contradictions at the end of the quarter. The central bank's continuous net investment of reverse repurchase made the cross - quarter funds generally stable [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees, the bond market sentiment was cautious. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [7] Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government shutdown crisis continued to ferment, and the US and the Democratic Party had differences on the temporary spending bill. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an emergency plan in case of a government shutdown [8] - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metals continued to rise strongly. The international gold price broke through the $3800 mark, and the international silver price also rose [10] - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the Fed's policy and political situation in Europe and the US would drive the price of precious metals to new highs. It was recommended to buy wide - straddle options before the National Day and buy out - of - the - money call options later. For silver, it was recommended to buy on dips [11] Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports of different shipping companies were provided. As of September 29, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile. Only CMA announced the price for November, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper decreased. The trading was quiet [13] - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [14] - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident increased supply concerns. The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [16] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod production increased. The demand in the fourth quarter might weaken marginally, but the overall demand was resilient [17] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper and domestic social inventory increased [18] - **Logic**: The copper price was expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts. The supply was expected to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the demand was resilient. It was recommended to hold long positions [19] Alumina - **Spot**: On September 29, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory continued to accumulate [19] - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [20][21] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts increased [21] - **Logic**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was expected to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium also decreased [23] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [23] - **Demand**: The downstream industries were in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate generally increased [23] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged on September 29 [24] - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut brought uncertainty, but the domestic macro - environment was warm. The supply was high, the cost support was weakened, and the demand was in the peak season. The inventory inflection point appeared, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [27] - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It was expected to increase slightly in September [27] - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it showed a marginal improvement in the transition period. It was expected to recover moderately in September [27] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [28] - **Logic**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated with the aluminum price. The supply was still tight, the cost support was significant, and the demand recovered moderately. The price was expected to remain high and volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [29] Zinc - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and some downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [30] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the domestic zinc ingot production increased significantly since June. It was expected that the cumulative production from January to September would increase by more than 9% year - on - year [31] - **Demand**: The operating rate of primary processing industries was in line with the peak - season performance, but the overall demand was still weak [32] - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [32] - **Logic**: The supply was loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The zinc price was expected to remain volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [33] Tin - **Spot**: On September 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was light [33] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased slightly, and the import volume from Myanmar increased. The tin ingot import volume decreased [34] - **Demand and Inventory**: In August, the operating rate of the solder industry increased, but the overall demand was still weak. The inventory decreased [35] - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the tin price rose at night. The price was expected to operate between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [36] Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel and imported nickel decreased [36] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic refined nickel production increased, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [37] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the peak season but had limited sustainability [38] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory was stable, and bonded area inventory decreased [38] - **Logic**: The nickel market was in an interval shock. The Fed's interest rate cut and Indonesian mining policies were factors to be concerned about. The price was expected to operate between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [39] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis decreased [40] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased [40][42] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic stainless steel production increased, and the production in September was expected to continue to increase, mainly in the 300 - series [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [41] - **Logic**: The stainless steel market was in a short - term shock adjustment. The raw material price was firm, but the peak - season demand was not obvious. The main contract was expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased. The trading was light before the holiday [44] - **Supply**: In August, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the weekly production continued to increase slightly in the recent period, mainly from new projects and lithium spodumene processing [44] - **Demand**: The demand was robust and optimistic, and the orders in September and October were expected to increase [45] - **Inventory**: The whole - link inventory continued to decrease, with the upstream smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory [45] - **Logic**: The supply path was clear, and the demand in the peak season provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main contract price was expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46] Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar was 234 yuan, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 42 yuan [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from the high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47] - **Supply**: From January to August, the iron element production increased by 2800 tons year - on - year, and it was expected to increase by 3700 tons in the first nine months. The rebar production decreased, and the hot - rolled coil production remained high [47][48] - **Demand**: From January to August, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year. The export increment was not expected to be large. The apparent demand in August - September decreased, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [48] - **Inventory**: Since August, the inventory has increased significantly. It was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [48] - **View**: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, with the rebar fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan [49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [49] - **Futures**: The iron ore 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [49] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [49] - **Demand**: As of September 25, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the daily consumption of imported ore also increased [49] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [50] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [50] - **View**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. It was recommended to short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 750 - 830 yuan [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The spot price of coking coal was strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to rise and then fall [52] - **Supply**: This week, the main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian coal price increased. The port was closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [56] - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, and the coking plant's operation was stable, with the downstream replenishment demand increasing [56] - **Inventory**: The coal mine and port inventory decreased, while the port, coal - washing plant, coking plant, and steel mill inventory increased [55] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase, which was accepted by some steel mills and would be implemented on October 1 [58] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 34 yuan/ton [59] - **Supply**: Due to the rise in coking coal prices, some coking enterprises suffered losses, and the operation rate decreased [63] - **Demand**: The steel mill continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [61] - **Inventory**: The coking plant and port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased [62] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan [63] Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On September 29, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, and the vegetable meal price increased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal increased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [64] - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export sales and drought situation, Argentina's export tax policy, China's purchase of Argentine soybeans, and the EU's oilseed import situation were reported [64][65] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - term price was under

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices opened higher but showed mixed performance, with large tech stocks generally rising; Micron Technology increased over 4%, Nvidia rose about 3%, and other semiconductor companies also saw significant gains [2] - Chinese concept stocks collectively rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index climbing over 2%; companies like Pony.ai surged nearly 10%, while New Oriental, Xunlei, and Alibaba all increased by over 4% [4] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has reached a record high, with spot gold surpassing $3,820 per ounce, marking the 37th time this year it has set a new record; the cumulative increase is approximately 45%, outperforming all other major asset classes this year and achieving the largest annual gain since 1979 [5] - The influx of funds into the gold market has been significant, with Bank of America reporting a record inflow of $17.6 billion over the past four weeks [5] - In contrast, the U.S. dollar has declined by 9.7% since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and trade war prospects, which has fundamentally increased the value of gold priced in dollars [6] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Basic metal futures have collectively strengthened, with notable increases in copper and zinc prices across various exchanges [7][9] - Conversely, crude oil prices have seen a significant drop, with WTI crude oil falling over 3% [9] Group 4: Analyst Insights on Gold - Bank of America has warned that gold is currently in an "overbought" state strategically, but structurally remains "underheld," maintaining a bullish outlook on gold [8] - Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast by $300 to $4,000 per ounce, while Barclays analysts suggest that gold prices do not appear overvalued relative to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend as the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fades and the rubber market enters a phase dominated by a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to keep a weak and volatile trend due to the pressure from the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a strong and volatile trend considering the enhanced geopolitical risks, such as the continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the threat of strong tariff sanctions on Russia by the US [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons (0.76%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07% and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points week - on - week and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000, a 13% increase year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, a 0.12% increase week - on - week, a 2.80% decrease month - on - month, and a 1.43% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8727 million tons, a significant increase of 59,500 tons week - on - week, a slight decrease of 45,600 tons month - on - month, and an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.41%, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a 1.52% increase week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.62%, a 0.90% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 58.35%, a 0.69% increase week - on - week [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and a 0.70 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. As of September 29, 2025, the futures盘面 profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 180 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease week - on - week and a 71 - yuan/ton decrease month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week, 395,600 tons month - on - month, and 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week and 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, an increase of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 70 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 301,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels week - on - week and 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a slight decrease of 296,000 barrels week - on - week. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a slight increase of 504,000 barrels week - on - week [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 212,383 contracts, a significant decrease of 8,027 contracts week - on - week and a 4.97% increase compared to the August average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 2,359 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of crude oil was 474.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 490.5 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The basis was - 16.2 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel [17]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, inland methanol social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting, crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [18][20][22][31][43]

1. Chlor - Alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, in Q4, the downside space is limited. There may be concentrated stocking behavior in Q4 due to alumina's planned production in Q1 next year. Short - term demand has support, but future alumina purchase prices may be lowered [2]. - For PVC, in Q4, the downside space is limited during the peak season. The supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand in Q3 did not show well. Exports have alleviated some excess pressure, and attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, while the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The overall start - up rate of the PVC industry increased by 0.7 percentage points to 76.1% on September 26 compared with September 19. The start - up rate data of the caustic soda industry was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly. For example, the start - up rate of the alumina industry remained unchanged at 83.7%, and the start - up rate of the Longzhong sample pipe industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, compared with September 18, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the total social inventory of PVC remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [2]. 2. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PX, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price will be under pressure. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on high spreads [6]. - For PTA, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it will follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on the TA1 - 5 spread [6]. - For ethylene glycol, in Q4, it is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the price is under pressure. Strategies include shorting EG01 and reverse - arbitraging on the EG1 - 5 spread [6]. - For short - fiber, in the short - term, the price may be supported, but if the terminal demand in October cannot follow up, the supply - demand will turn to an expected pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [6]. - For bottle - chips, in Q4, it is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the processing fee is under pressure. Strategies include following the PTA for single - side trading and shorting the processing fee on high spreads [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 75 yuan/ton to 6605 yuan/ton, and the price of PTA East China spot increased by 5 yuan/ton to 4590 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: In Q4, the supply of PX and domestic ethylene glycol is expected to be high, while the demand of downstream products such as PTA and bottle - chips is in the off - season. The inventory of MEG ports and domestic urea is also in a state of change [6]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed weekly. For example, the start - up rate of Asian PX decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.0%, and the start - up rate of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 76.8% [6]. 3. Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, currently, the inventory of PE and PP has decreased. However, after the holiday, there is a large inventory pressure, and with new capacity coming on - stream, the inventory accumulation pressure of the 01 contract is large, which limits the upside space [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of L2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 7159 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the relevant update time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory of PE and PP decreased. For example, the PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.2 million tons to 45.8 million tons [9]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased. For example, the start - up rate of PE devices increased by 1.48 percentage points to 81.8%, and the start - up rate of PP devices increased by 0.63 percentage points to 75.5% [9]. 4. Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol will continue to fluctuate. The supply side has a balance between the resumption of some domestic devices and the expected reduction of overseas supply. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation and domestic demand realization [39]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the closing price of MA2601 increased slightly, and the basis of Taicang changed. For example, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inventory**: As of the Wednesday update, the enterprise inventory, port inventory and social inventory of methanol decreased. For example, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05 million tons to 31.994 million tons [39]. - **Start - up Rate**: On September 26, compared with the previous value, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased. For example, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 1.61 percentage points to 74.27% [39]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be high due to the resumption of some devices and new capacity coming on - stream. The demand support is limited, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 should follow the benzene - styrene and oil prices to fluctuate [42]. - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support may be limited. The price is still under pressure. EB11 should be shorted on rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [42]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene East China spot decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China spot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 6910 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inventory**: As of the weekly update, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. For example, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7 million tons to 10.7 million tons [42]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed. For example, the start - up rate of domestic pure benzene increased by 0.9 percentage points to 79.3%, and the start - up rate of styrene decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 73.2% [42]. 6. Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures price fluctuates downward. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, with high domestic production, weak demand, and a weak international price. The export policy adjustment and new Indian tender have not effectively boosted market confidence [50]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of urea futures contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the inventory in factories increased, while the port inventory decreased. For example, the domestic daily urea production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.94 million tons, and the domestic factory inventory increased by 5.29 million tons to 121.82 million tons [50]. 7. Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In Q4, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In early October, they may be strong due to geopolitical risks and low inventory. In the middle, they may face pressure due to increased production and inventory recovery. In the later period, they may trend weakly due to loose supply and weakened geopolitical risks. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy for single - side trading, a positive - arbitrage strategy for arbitrage, and wait for opportunities to widen the volatility in the options market [52]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI, SC and other crude oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 0.56 US dollars/barrel to 69.57 US dollars/barrel [52]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 and other indicators changed. For example, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 2.82 US dollars/barrel to 0.92 US dollars/barrel [52].